Sacramento Real Estate Market Charts - September 2007
Data source: Sacramento Association of Realtors
skip to main |
skip to sidebar
Sacramento real estate market from a non-industry, consumer perspective.
Sacramento Land(ing)
The Daily Read
Sacramento Real Estate Market
Sacramento Real Estate Statistics
Sacramento Area Flippers In Trouble
Average Buyer
Sacramento Sweet Digs
HousingTracker
Altos Research
ForeclosureRadar Graphs
FNC Residential Price Index
FHFA House Price Index
DataQuick: By County
DataQuick: By Zip
DataQuick: By City
Zillow Price Charts
Redfin Market Trends
TrendGraphix
Sacramento MLS Statistics
Placer MLS Statistics
El Dorado MLS Statistics
CAR MLS Statistics
NAR MLS Statistics
NAR Median Price Chart
Melissa Data
Sacramento Home Prices v. Income
NAHB Affordability Index
PMI Market Risk Index
Red Capital Group - Rental Market
Housing Bubble in Sacramento?
Craigslist Sacramento Housing Forum
City-Data Sacramento Forum
Redfin Sacramento Forum
BizJournal: Sac Residential RE News
SacBusinessReview: Real Estate
Sacramento Bee Real Estate News
Sacramento Area Flippers In Trouble
Average Buyer
Sacramento Sweet Digs
HousingTracker
Altos Research
ForeclosureRadar Graphs
FNC Residential Price Index
FHFA House Price Index
DataQuick: By County
DataQuick: By Zip
DataQuick: By City
Zillow Price Charts
Redfin Market Trends
TrendGraphix
Sacramento MLS Statistics
Placer MLS Statistics
El Dorado MLS Statistics
CAR MLS Statistics
NAR MLS Statistics
NAR Median Price Chart
Melissa Data
Sacramento Home Prices v. Income
NAHB Affordability Index
PMI Market Risk Index
Red Capital Group - Rental Market
Housing Bubble in Sacramento?
Craigslist Sacramento Housing Forum
City-Data Sacramento Forum
Redfin Sacramento Forum
BizJournal: Sac Residential RE News
SacBusinessReview: Real Estate
Sacramento Bee Real Estate News
Sacramento Real Estate Tools
Metrolist
Redfin
Zillow
Cyberhomes
Trulia
Zip Realty
Realtor.com
Hotpads
Rentometer
Domania
SacBee Recent Home Sales
Sacramento Craigslist
Housing Maps
Google Maps Foreclosures
Foreclosure Radar
Foreclosure.com
SacBee Foreclosure Map
Buy v. Rent Calculator
PolicyMap
Housing+Transportation Affordability
GreatSchools
SpotCrime
Crime Mapping
CrimeMapper
Megan's Law Maps
Hazard Maps
Sac County Recorder Index
Zip Code Boundary Map
Redfin
Zillow
Cyberhomes
Trulia
Zip Realty
Realtor.com
Hotpads
Rentometer
Domania
SacBee Recent Home Sales
Sacramento Craigslist
Housing Maps
Google Maps Foreclosures
Foreclosure Radar
Foreclosure.com
SacBee Foreclosure Map
Buy v. Rent Calculator
PolicyMap
Housing+Transportation Affordability
GreatSchools
SpotCrime
Crime Mapping
CrimeMapper
Megan's Law Maps
Hazard Maps
Sac County Recorder Index
Zip Code Boundary Map
Sacramento Economy
California Real Estate Market
Professor Piggington
Irvine Housing Blog
Burbed
Bubbleinfo
Manhattan Beach Confidential
Westside Bubble
Housing Kaboom
SoCal Real Estate Bubble Crash
Marin Real Estate Bubble
Healdsburg Bubble
Bay Area Housing Bubble
Socket Site
SF Real Estate Blog
South Bay Beaches Bubble
South OC RE Tracker
Santa Monica Distress Monitor
Humboldt Real Estate Economics
Realtor Graphs - Northern SJ Valley
DQ Central Valley Statistics
DQ Sales Database - N. SJ Valley
Kern County $/SQFT
Stockton Record Real Estate News
Modesto Bee Real Estate News
SFGate - On the Block
OC Register - Lansner on Real Estate
Irvine Housing Blog
Burbed
Bubbleinfo
Manhattan Beach Confidential
Westside Bubble
Housing Kaboom
SoCal Real Estate Bubble Crash
Marin Real Estate Bubble
Healdsburg Bubble
Bay Area Housing Bubble
Socket Site
SF Real Estate Blog
South Bay Beaches Bubble
South OC RE Tracker
Santa Monica Distress Monitor
Humboldt Real Estate Economics
Realtor Graphs - Northern SJ Valley
DQ Central Valley Statistics
DQ Sales Database - N. SJ Valley
Kern County $/SQFT
Stockton Record Real Estate News
Modesto Bee Real Estate News
SFGate - On the Block
OC Register - Lansner on Real Estate
U.S. Real Estate Market
Calculated Risk
The Housing Bubble
Housing Doom
Paper Economy
Bubble Meter
Dr. Housing Bubble
Housing Storm
National Bubble
Housing Fear
Seeking Alpha
Mortgage Lender Implode-O-Meter
Home Builder Implode-O-Meter
Bank Implode-O-Meter
eFinanceDirectory.com
Housing Bubble Hall of Shame
Lawrence Yun Watch
David Lereah Watch
The Daily Bail
NoBailout.org
GoldmanSachs666
Bubble News Network (BNN)
Real Estate Videos
Frankly Realty
Housing Wire
Matrix
Housing Chronicles
Housing Derivatives
Foreclosure Truth
Foreclosure Industry Blogs
CNBC Realty Check
Mortgage Insider (OC Register)
WSJ Developments Blog
WSJ Real Estate Journal
Inman News
The Housing Bubble
Housing Doom
Paper Economy
Bubble Meter
Dr. Housing Bubble
Housing Storm
National Bubble
Housing Fear
Seeking Alpha
Mortgage Lender Implode-O-Meter
Home Builder Implode-O-Meter
Bank Implode-O-Meter
eFinanceDirectory.com
Housing Bubble Hall of Shame
Lawrence Yun Watch
David Lereah Watch
The Daily Bail
NoBailout.org
GoldmanSachs666
Bubble News Network (BNN)
Real Estate Videos
Frankly Realty
Housing Wire
Matrix
Housing Chronicles
Housing Derivatives
Foreclosure Truth
Foreclosure Industry Blogs
CNBC Realty Check
Mortgage Insider (OC Register)
WSJ Developments Blog
WSJ Real Estate Journal
Inman News
Other Regions
Seattle Bubble
New Jersey Real Estate Report
Portland Housing Blog
N. Virginia Housing Bubble Fallout
Charlottesville Bubble Blog
Boston Bubble
Phoenix Flippers in Trouble
Vancouver Condo Info
Alberta Bubble
The UK Housing Bubble
Reno Realty Blog
Baltimore Sun - The RE Wonk
Palm Beach Post - Real Time
Boston Globe - Real Estate Now
List of Inactive Housing Blogs
List of Housing Blogs
New Jersey Real Estate Report
Portland Housing Blog
N. Virginia Housing Bubble Fallout
Charlottesville Bubble Blog
Boston Bubble
Phoenix Flippers in Trouble
Vancouver Condo Info
Alberta Bubble
The UK Housing Bubble
Reno Realty Blog
Baltimore Sun - The RE Wonk
Palm Beach Post - Real Time
Boston Globe - Real Estate Now
List of Inactive Housing Blogs
List of Housing Blogs
Housing and Economics
Headlines & Data
Housing Bubble 101
Shiller Graph [2] [3] [4]
Home Price Roller Coaster Ride
Irrational Exuberance 2 Excerpts
The Economist: In Come the Waves
ARM Resets-Credit Suisse [2] [3] [4] [5]
Option ARM Chart [2]
Wikipedia: US Housing Bubble
Headlines from the Last Bubble (CA)
Headlines from the Last Bubble (NY)
Japan's Housing Bubble
Japan Home Prices 1981-2004
Housing Bubbles: Japan vs. US (2011)
The Giant Pool of Money
Thornberg on the Real Estate Bubble
Housing Bubble Glossary
Bubblehead's Glossary
Bubble Glossary
Home Price Roller Coaster Ride
Irrational Exuberance 2 Excerpts
The Economist: In Come the Waves
ARM Resets-Credit Suisse [2] [3] [4] [5]
Option ARM Chart [2]
Wikipedia: US Housing Bubble
Headlines from the Last Bubble (CA)
Headlines from the Last Bubble (NY)
Japan's Housing Bubble
Japan Home Prices 1981-2004
Housing Bubbles: Japan vs. US (2011)
The Giant Pool of Money
Thornberg on the Real Estate Bubble
Housing Bubble Glossary
Bubblehead's Glossary
Bubble Glossary
Sacramento Real Estate Industry
Sacramento Blogs
Topics on Sacramento Land(ing)
Affordability
(67)
Auburn housing market
(9)
Auctions
(45)
Bubble Sitters
(36)
Building Permits
(6)
California Housing Market
(76)
Calling Market Bottom
(50)
Cancellations
(15)
Central Valley Housing Market
(94)
Chico Housing Market
(15)
Citrus Heights Housing Market
(7)
Commercial Real Estate
(53)
Condos
(50)
Credit Tightening
(51)
Davis Housing Market
(6)
Downtown Housing Market
(46)
Economy
(238)
El Dorado Hills Housing Market
(7)
El Dorado Housing Market
(32)
Elk Grove Housing Market
(68)
Fair Oaks Housing Market
(2)
Flippers
(53)
Folsom Housing Market
(19)
Foreclosures
(255)
Fraud
(34)
Galt Housing Market
(2)
Granite Bay Housing Market
(1)
Graphs
(81)
Graphs: Affordability
(5)
Graphs: Foreclosures
(11)
Graphs: Inventory
(13)
Graphs: Price
(46)
Graphs: Sales
(17)
High End Immunity
(13)
House Price Index
(12)
Housing Bubble Blogs
(18)
Incentives
(52)
Inventory
(98)
Layoffs
(150)
Lincoln Housing Market
(22)
Loans
(92)
Loomis Housing Market
(2)
Market
(1)
Media
(37)
Merced Housing Market
(97)
Monthly Reports: AB MLS
(4)
Monthly Reports: C.A.R.
(28)
Monthly Reports: DQNews
(18)
Monthly Reports: RPX
(9)
Monthly Reports: SacBee
(73)
Monthly Reports: SAR
(19)
Mortgage Meltdown
(51)
National Housing Market
(59)
Natomas Housing Market
(23)
New Homes
(112)
Placer Housing Market
(69)
Placerville Housing Market
(1)
Population
(61)
Predictions
(221)
Price Reductions
(39)
Rancho Cordova Housing Market
(17)
Rancho Murieta Housing Market
(1)
Redding Housing Market
(31)
Rents
(59)
Report: Zindex
(5)
Rocklin Housing Market
(17)
Roseville Housing Market
(18)
Sacramento Housing Market
(631)
Sacramento Housing Market History
(2)
Sacramento Land(ing)
(18)
Sales Tactics
(22)
San Joaquin-Stockton Housing Market
(304)
Solano Housing Market
(1)
Stanislaus-Modesto Housing Market
(134)
Sutter-Yuba Housing Market
(53)
Terminated
(40)
Vacant Homes
(50)
Vacaville Housing Market
(2)
Water Cooler
(78)
West Sacramento Housing Market
(20)
Woodland Housing Market
(6)
Yolo Housing Market
(34)
27 comments:
Very nice charts, Lander.
I updated my charts tonight also. I chart the DQ data for 95814 + 95816 + 95819 (midtown and east sac) as an aggregate.
The peak median price for this area was about $461K, reached in Nov 2005 (it also got close in Sept 2005 and Jan 2006, it was a broad peak). Then I look at the rolling 3-month average of the median as a % of the peak. It has definitely been trending down, in spite of a blip to the upside in April. As recently as last summer, it was at 98% of peak, but in June and July of this year it was 93%, and for Aug and Sept it was 90% of peak.
So I have to conclude that the bubble is finally beginning to deflate in midtown/east sac. Another 25% off the peak would be quite satisfying!
anon1137...
"So I have to conclude that the bubble is finally beginning to deflate in midtown/east sac."
Yup, to think that some of these "ironclad" zips would sidestep this market is foolish at best. We're beginning to see momentum building as prices accelerate downward due to oversupply. It happened in the early 90's and it happened in the 70's.
Maybe it's collateral damage or just overpriced merchandise. But I highly suspect that it really doesn't matter if a buyer is looking in Meadowview or the fab 40's. The market's momentum will move prices in the direction its going regardless of the address. It took prices to the peak over a 5 year period and it will take prices to the trough as we move through this.
This is not a market to step in front of.
anon1137...
"Another 25% off the peak would be quite satisfying"
diggin deeper..
"But I highly suspect that it really doesn't matter if a buyer is looking in Meadowview or the fab 40's."
It's all I want to hear. Good news all. Nice charts. As much as I like midtown (I rented there for 6mo just get a feel for it.) Some of those homes & their asking price is crazy. 700K is not unusuall & you know something is wrong when a vaccume cleaner can reach around the house w/o having to unplug it. The p/v (price/value)ratio is out of wack there. Don't get me wrong, beautiful neighborhood, but I know my first home the garage was bigger than many of those in midtown...
DD - it makes sense that these neighborhoods will fall too since the same factors, easy money, etc., made them inflate. But I think the relatively higher demand there will keep them from falling as far as areas with new construction.
From the Bee's updated story on the DQ data: Sac County, Sept sales down 41%, median price down 13.5% yoy. Wow.
2 more years like that and we may have something >; )
anon1137...
Wow is right!
There won't be a neigborhood untouched by this market. I've argued with most about what location really has to do with the overall direction of a market. While I tend to agree, thanks to Sippn, that the upper crust neighborhoods will fair better, it will only be by a matter of degree. If overall market prices crash, then I would expect to see prices in the top zips "plummet", thus the difference in the main market vs. the submarket. But that price difference should be significant enough to make the wait worthwhile.
I'm betting that the same exhuberance exhibited during the manic upswing of this market will be met by an equal "negative force" exhibited during its fall. Markets tend to over react...not only up but down as well and I'm banking on an over reaction to the downside.
We're beginning to see an acceleration of price cuts. There's no telling where we end up and the only thing that's clear to me is that the numbers are not getting any better. The longer this game plays, the more the "pain factor" is interjected into this pricing momentum. We're already seeing this intially MoM in price declines. I don't believe its over, but rather just getting started.
I don't care if we miss the first 5% appreciation off the bottom. I'd chalk that up to over reaction as noted above. I'd much rather have a clearer picture of Sacramento real estate for where it truly is then to get caught up in making an emotional decision that I'd regret.
"I don't care if we miss the first 5% appreciation off the bottom. I'd chalk that up to over reaction as noted above."
Don't worry, you won't. I like to remind people that while real estate peaks are sharp and pointy (on a graph), bottoms are nice and wide and flat (check the Shiller graph). We'll all have plenty of time to react. No worries.
Funny, I was at a meeting at the College earlier this week and was reminded by another instructor that in 2004, when I ran my foreclosure class through the curriculum committee for approval, that when asked I said things like "this round is going to substantially worse than the two previous rounds ('79-'83 & '90-'94)" and "count out 5 years after the peak before it bottoms."
Truth is you didn't need to be very smart to make those sort of comments. Just experienced enough to recognize the cyclic nature of the business and know foolish lending practices will come back to haunt the market.
Five years from 8/05 puts us at August 2010. Because the boom lasted a bit longer than I anticipated, I'm thinking we will hit the bottom sometime in 2011.
I've made this comment before so forgive me if this appears redundant...People seem to think that just because someone secures a jumbo loan they automatically get a pass when it comes to affording that loan. They don't!... and were just as susceptible to accepting these toxic bombs as anyone else.
I suspect that the top zips in Sacramento will have their significant share of foreclosures that will adversely affect the pricing in these neighborhoods.
Cheap money brought out the most unworthy credit risks out there. And while Jumbos were supposed to be better scrutinzed, I remember hearing about "no doc, no income" jumbos during the boom.
Those who had no chance, and were doomed to fail, are doing just that...regardless if the home cost $300,000 or $3,000,000. While most of this was focussed on the lower priced neighborhoods, we can't forget that "brown lawn" syndrome doesn't care about zip codes, supposed wealth, or neighboodhood fences.
As we move into the unknown season of mortgage resets, if you look closely at the charts, you'd find that prime and jumbo resetting loans are in the same mix as subprime, Alt-A, ect. And for the most part, the increase in payments are relatively the same. If jumbo at $4000 per month doubles to $8000, that puts a little more strain on the mortgagee. Will it matter? We'll see.
The bubble will not leave a neighborhood untouched.
The nicer areas like 95816 and 95819 were expensive (relatively speaking) before the bubble started, and will remain more expensive when the bottom is reached.
Some of these areas did not have speculation reach a fever pitch, since frankly speaking, they don't have that much land to build on.
But these areas are move-up, which means that the people hoping to live there have to sell their house first. And if their prior homes sell for less, well, you know what happens to how much they will be able to pay for their move-up home.
To me, these areas will do a nice job of returning to the mean. The other areas where rampart speculation occurred may do a nice job of undershooting that mean.
Living paycheck to paycheck gets harder:
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20071019/ap_on_bi_ge/stretching_paychecks_2
An exerpt taken out of context:
"In the meantime, rising costs show no signs of abating.
Gas prices hit a record nationwide average of $3.23 per gallon in late May before receding a little, though prices are expected to soar again later this year. Food costs have increased 4.5 percent over the past 12 months, partly because of higher fuel costs. Egg prices were 44 percent higher, while milk was up 21.3 percent over the past 12 months to nearly $4 a gallon, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics."
This article basically affects the lower end of wage scale, now, but soft commodity increases and energy continue to rise unabated. $90 oil will be processed into the economy by Christmas.
In the late 70's and early 80's the entire spectrum of wage classes were affected by cost increases such as these. Thankfully wages were rising fast enough to take most of those increases in stride. Today, it's a whole lot different as wages have basically remained stagnant for all but the higher end of the wage scale.
I've been hammering on this for months now and really believe it is the lynchpin that either holds this real estate market together, in an orderly regression to the mean, or shears off and sends it into a tailspin. I'm not the smartest guy on these blogs, but having been through that hyperinflation period, the resemblence is beginning to look exactly as it did 30 years ago.
This real estate market cannot afford to enter a recession with the fundamentals the way they are today...
Shays,
For me, it's affordability that I peg the return on. The piper of of microecon must be paid and he has a way of banging down the door even if you don't hear him knocking.
I fear Sippn has fallen and he can't get up! Hopefully he is o.k.
Remember when Sippn was the first, maybe second commenter on EVERY story, trying to debunk everything regardless of its merits? If the story said 2+2=4 he'd be on here saying it's 5 people!
What happened? We need our whipping boy!
17' Macbook Pro 2.16 duo core processor, 2 gb ram - $1500
Reply to: sale-452721949@craigslist.org
Date: 2007-10-18, 10:49AM PDT
1500.00 obo gets you all of this, best apple laptop made
17 inch Macbook Pro
2.16 intel core duo processor
2 Gb 667 Mhz ram
Mac OS X version 10.4.10
plus tons of macbook pro features like garage band, photobooth, the isight camera, all standard with the macbook pro
had this pc for 8 months, times are getting tough, selling to pay my house payment, i'm asking 1500.00 or best offer, serious buyers only contact me 916 - 225 - 6973 -Anthony
Let's hope Anthony wasn't holding any financials today - ouch!
The Dow was looking like that sales volume graph.
This a must read of us in the central Valley
http://calculatedrisk.blogspot.com/2007/10/wachovia-conference-call-comments.html
"Much of the increase in non-performing loans and the losses are on loans in certain California markets that have experienced fairly steep declines in prices. Our delinquency call centers report that the primary reasons for borrowers struggling to pay are three fold. First is reduction of income or underemployment. Second is the assumption of additional debt from lenders other than Wachovia and thereby changing the credit profile from the origination of the loan. And third unemployment."
Dollar index dropped to 77.5 overnight. 2 years ago it was at 120. 80 was resistance for the longest time. Where's "Easy Al" when you need him most...(sarcasm off)
I read the Wachovia report and it was quite revealing about their CDO losses. One day you've got moody rated AAA subprime paper and within 30 days you've lost close to $300 Million. I'll bet the search is on for the kid who did the calculus on that bond series. There's not one bank that's reported to date that hasn't had a problem with this junk. And we're only getting what they're willing to report this quarter.
For me, it was the underemployment and unemployment ratings coming out of the call centers. Those numbers are showing in our gov-released data. yet.
Great charts - showing 2004 prices, today, for everyone!
Affordability... a look back at what happened "last time" as the mortgage payments changed over time for a median priced house:
1990-1995
Sacramento $1,031 $665 -35.5
All California $1,308 $942 -28.0
35% lower in Sacramento as a result of Fed rate lowering plus house price depreciation!
See:
http://www.karevoll.com/AA1996MOR01.shtm
Or:
http://tinyurl.com/3xzdkb
I've got a question. If you default on your mortgage and it forecloses, are you still on the hook for the debt under some structured repayment plan? If you bankrupt does that change anything?
BK does not dismiss tax, alimony, or student loan commitments.
Foreclose or S/S, you are still on the hook for the 1099 "windfall".
In my opinion, foreclosure just gets you pick when you want to loose the house and allows to get on this your life faster.
I am definitely starting to see some big drops now in Lincoln.
I have been watching 70087540 and over the past 2 weeks it has dropped $100k. Now it is $275k and comes out to $96 sq. ft.
If it only had a bigger yard I would seriously be considering buying right now.
happy, finally some of you are seeing the light, i've been saying this since day one and no one has backed me til now, welcome to the reality club :)
Jacob-
Have you seen the lot on 70087540? Is there any lot at all?
Cause that is unbelievable. They have dropped that house like it's HOT from 450k in August to 275k now. Almost a 3000 sq/ft house, 3 car+ garage, 5 bed/3 bath. Un-frakking-believable.
Yea, if you look at the satelite view you can see there isn't much of a lot. The house size is great, it where was more room in the lot I would actually be taking a tour.
Fortunately there isn't so I have an excuse not to look.
I have my settings at ziprealty for 200k-375k. About 6 months ago I had it set to 450k (out of the range I want to spend, but there wasnt much in my range). Now there are close to 100 in my range.
Anyway I saw this one at $375k at the top of my range, then bang, bang $100k drop in 9 days.
When some of these no yard homes drop to $250 then I think the ones I want will be in my range. Right now they are still hanging out around $450k.
I want at least .2 acres, .25 would be better. If I am going to take on years of debt I'm gonna get what I want so I can be happy with it for years to come.
But the price drop is really encouraging. :)
Post a Comment