Sacramento Real Estate Market - November 2009 Water Cooler

Post off-topic links, observations, and stories about the Sacramento real estate market here. Please read the comment policy before posting.

Sacramento Real Estate Market - October 2009 Water Cooler

Post off-topic links, observations, and stories about the Sacramento real estate market here. Please read the comment policy before posting.

'Business as Usual'

From the Tracy Press:

[C]rooked real estate agents were so common that to get targeted for prosecution, lenders and agents had to go the extra mile in duping buyers. “When I started out, everyone was doing that, those stated-income loans,” said Susan Wilson, who sells homes for Corral Hollow Real Estate in Tracy. “It’s really discouraging, because no one does them now, but the same people who did them are still selling homes.” She said that realization makes her consider leaving the business. “I just don’t want to be in a line of work where things like that could happen — where peoples’ lives are falling apart because of this industry,” she said.
...
“When we started out, that’s what we were taught,” Wilson said. “Even the veterans, with decades behind them, said this is the way to do it. No one said it was wrong — and when you’re new, how do you know?” In fact, victims of brokers and agents who helped people procure homes they couldn’t afford wonder why the people who misled them are still free. “It’s like business as usual,” Wilson said. “I wonder when, or if, it’s going to catch up with them.”

From News10:

What was expected to be a flood of foreclosures is turning out to be a trickle. Michael Lyon of Lyon Real Estate agreed..."It's becoming a seller's market. I didn't think I would be saying this for years." Lyon predicts that instead of seeing a wave of foreclosures sweep in over the next few months, it will likely now be a steady stream over the next few years.

From Rocklin & Roseville Today:

The greater Sacramento area housing market has improved, but it has not yet fully corrected itself. The first-time tax credit needs to be extended and if possible expanded in order to build upon the progress the market has made. Any uncertainty about the future of the credit has the power to dampen consumer demand. The best way to assure continued housing activity in Sacramento and around the country is to extend the credit and do it quickly. I urge you, even if you are not a potential first-time home buyer to contact your congressperson and ask them to support the extension of the credit.

Sacramento Real Estate Market - September 2009 Water Cooler

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Sacramento's RealtyCrack Addiction

New York Times - Sacramento economy's addiction to realtycrack among nation's highest

From the Sacramento Business Journal:

An upswing in home prices and a surprising rebound in consumer confidence this week have economists buoyant about a possible turnaround in the national economy. But for Sacramento? Not so much. Sacramentans’ mortgage debt, the weakness of the commercial real estate market and a bleak outlook for California overall have tempered any bright spots for the local economy.
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“We predict things to get a little worse over the next 12 months,” said Ryan Sharp, director of The Center for Strategic Economic Research in Sacramento, which forecasts the region’s economy. “Sacramento isn’t going to outperform California.”
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Ezra Becker, director of consulting and strategy for TransUnion’s financial services group...said Sacramentans’ mortgage problems are affecting spending habits. “A lot of people took pay cuts, they were laid off or had to make other adjustments,” he said.

From the Sacramento Bee:

A major credit reporting company predicts mortgage delinquency rates will continue rising in the Sacramento area – with 12 percent of homeowners falling at least two months behind on their payments by year's end. That's nearly twice the national projection and a dramatic jump from just two years ago, when less than 2 percent percent of area homeowners' notes were delinquent.
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Double-digit percentage unemployment and unpaid furlough days are increasingly catching up with homeowners who have "safe" fixed-rate loans, rather than the subprime loans that initially sparked the housing crisis. Mike Himes, director of NeighborWorks Homeownership Center in Sacramento, which counsels struggling and first-time homeowners, said his office is seeing more clients facing growing debt and making choices between house payments and other expenses. His clientele includes a growing number of state workers whose paychecks have been pared by unpaid furloughs. "There's a lot of money borrowed to stay in the house and keep up with living expenses," Himes said. "This is becoming more and more of a problem."

Sacramento Real Estate Market - August 2009 Water Cooler

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Sacramento Foreclosure 'Surge' Dead Ahead?

From CNN Money: Buy foreclosures now - before it's too late

In many markets, if you want to buy a repossessed property, you better come with your best offer first -- and fast. You've heard of speed dating? It's got nothin' on foreclosure buying these days. In many places, anyone who wants to buy a foreclosure better act fast, or they're going to come away with bupkus.
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The hot spots for this fast-paced foreclosure activity are former bubble markets where foreclosures soared -- places like California cities Sacramento, Riverside and San Bernardino. In Sacramento, for example, the inventory is down to less than 30 days, making it a cut-throat market.
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The trend is causing intense agita for buyers. "People feel like they're getting left out," said [Caesar] Dias, the agent in Stockton.

From News10:

Declining home values might also be in our future, especially homes priced at $300,000 and up. Jim Waters, a regional director for Lyon Real Estate, said there are more than 20,000 foreclosed homes waiting to be released by lenders just in the Sacramento region.

"We're going to see a good surge, probably in the middle to latter part of September or the end of the 3rd quarter, and that surge will run all the way through the end of the year and all of next year, from what they're telling us," said Waters, who talks regularly with banking executives.

When asked if the economy will see as many foreclosures in the coming year as the past two years, Waters replied, "More, more."

From the Sacramento Bee:

In Sacramento "we have a lot more decompressing to do," added Sanjay Varshney, dean of the College of Business Administration at California State University, Sacramento. "Normally, I would have said we would have defined a bottom, too, later this year or early next year. I think for us the challenge is the government layoffs have just begun. "We might be looking at our cycle to be pushed out compared to the national cycle," he said.

Sacramento Foreclosures via Google Maps

View Larger Map

Hat tip: Lansner on Real Estate

Also: Defaults starting to tag wealthier Sacramento-area ZIP Codes

Sacramento Real Estate Market - July 2009 Water Cooler

Post off-topic links, observations, and stories about the Sacramento real estate market here. Please read the comment policy before posting.

DataQuick's Sacramento Housing Market Numbers for June 2009

14-month streak of year-over-year home sales gains ends (updated article)
Housing market statistics by county

Also: Sacramento-area rents fall for third straight quarter (chart)

Foreclosure Stats for June; MLS Sales Go Negative

Year-over-year change
NOD: 6.9%
NTS: -26.0%

From ForeclosureRadar:

[California] Notices of Trustee Sale dropped...with the timing of the drop indicating that it was in response to the California Foreclosure Prevention Act. This law was widely believed to have little or no impact on foreclosure filings, as it exempted the majority of large lenders that operate in the state. “A number of lenders appear to have self-imposed California’s latest foreclosure moratorium on themselves, despite having received an exemption from it,” says Sean O’Toole, founder and CEO of ForeclosureRadar. “Given the number of exempt lenders it was quite surprising to see Notice of Trustee Sale filings drop by nearly 50 percent the day the new law went into effect.”
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Notice of Trustee Sale filings were climbing late in the month so it remains unlikely this law will have any longterm impact on foreclosure activity.

Of note this month, June MLS sales were down year-over-year for the first time since January 2008.



Also worth a look (hat tip readers):
Sacramento: 70 Percent Distressed Sales in June
Economists say recovery is on the way, but it will take awhile
13%+ Sacramento Regional Unemployment Rate Likely in 2010 [pdf]
Industry searches high and low for signs of hope
Delta town struggles to hang on with 25 percent out of work
Sacramento asking prices flatlining
Movin' on Up: Mortgage defaults spread as even 'safe' borrowers falter
High-end Immunity Alert: East Sacramento tops for reduced-priced listings
Rare East Sac Million Dollar Bank Repo For Sale
Low sales for high-end
Beyond ZIndex: Zillow adds charts of sold price per sqft, median sold price, list price and more. Some of the data goes back 10 years and can be segregated by metro, county, city, and neighborhood as well as by home type and configuration. (Note: data lags several months)

Sacramento DataQuick Stats for May 2009

From the Sacramento Bee (updated article):

Sacramento County showed one of the biggest improvements regionally, with prices for existing homes alone climbing a dramatically higher 9.4 percent - from $160,000 in March and April to $175,000 in May. But that was still 22 percent below the May 2008 median of $225,000.

DataQuick analyst Andrew LePage attributed the abrupt May rise to a sales mix reflecting fewer hugely discounted bank repos and more higher-priced homes. "It's not home appreciation," he said. "It's just getting back to a more normal distribution of sales across the home price spectrum." Still, he said, "It could be that we've seen the lowest median in Sacramento County."

Statistics by county
Statistics by zip
Other Central Valley counties [pdf]

Also: Sacramento area misses move-up homebuyers -- they're staying put