Baghdad Bob of Real Estate, Arizona Edition
From the New York Times (hat tip HBB):
Phoenix has achieved the unwelcome distinction of becoming the first major American city where home prices have fallen in half since the market peaked in the middle of the decade, according to data released Tuesday. Though historical statistics are scant, experts said the precipitous decline probably had few if any equals in modern times.Greg Swann, June 2006: 21 reasons to bank on the Phoenix real estate market . . .
...
Greg Swann, a Phoenix real estate agent, took a moment to marvel at the news. “What happened here will some day be a new chapter in ‘Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds,’ ” the classic survey of investing mania, he said. “We were living during the boom like there was no tomorrow. And guess what? Now it’s tomorrow.”
"Realistically, how overvalued are Phoenix home prices?" Obviously, I consider this a profoundly silly question, but to lurk among the BubbleBloggers and their seething commentariat is to acquire an education in a slice of America invisible from this side of the sewer gratings.A reader's response in the comments:
...
We keep our own home sales price statistics, so we have no doubt that values are down from their high in December. How much? Right now, about 4%. Could they go lower? Certainly. Will they drop by the huge amounts HousingPanic and his flying monkeys seem to yearn for? This seems very unlikely. What seems much more likely is that Phoenix will recover from the hangover of last year’s buying binge and get back to a steady rate of growth — historically 6% a year. The reason this should happen is very simple: Population growth. Metropolitan Phoenix is a unique real estate market.
...
The BubbleBloggers will someday bawl balefully in private, but they will never, ever admit that they have been very publicly very foolish. You will know and I will know and in the secret chambers of their hearts they will know they were wrong all along.
Garth Farkley July 29th, 2006 7:10 pm
Just remember, Greg, the internet is forever. Some of us will be right and some will be wrong. I acknowledge the possibility of my own error. In my experience humility is generally a mark of wisom. You, however, set yourself up as an icon of certitude. Good luck with it. Time will certainly tell.
10 comments:
Garth Farkley July 29th, 2006 7:10 pm
Just remember, Greg, the internet is forever. Some of us will be right and some will be wrong. I acknowledge the possibility of my own error. In my experience humility is generally a mark of wisom. You, however, set yourself up as an icon of certitude. Good luck with it. Time will certainly tell.
You sir are redundantly moronically stupid. Realt-hors dont need no steenking conjunctions or grammar. They Just need to belong to the national association of realt-hors.
Greg Swann Has made his millions in Real estate ... 6% on 150 sales per year at a average sale price of 350K for 3 years (04, 05, 06) Try that ... and now has moved on to selling that Acai Juice. I hear commissions in that are pushing 30-40% and professional athletes and year round golfers cannot go without that Acai I hear.
Oh yea 50% off a number inflated 400% is still 50% too high.
Phoenix - why, were they out of room in the fire pits of hell ?
Cool.
Cow_tipping.
Sac hit 50% a while ago? I guess we don't count as a major city?
Has Greg publically admited to being horribly wrong yet. And apologized to all the people whose lives he helped ruin? Didn't think so.
We should do a tax on all realtors and brokers and take back 90% of what they made on commissions from 03-06. Use that to help pay for these bailouts.
Yes, since we're a Case-Shiller wannabe, we're not considered a "major city."
I was going to chime in with that exact point about Sac breaking through 50% a while back, but then I realized they were using Case-Shiller data. As far as being first to dive below 50%, I'd suspect regions of Florida beat us (and Phoenix) to it by a longshot.
As far as being first to dive below 50%, I'd suspect regions of Florida beat us (and Phoenix) to it by a longshot.I don't think so, although it's possible smaller areas such as Sarasota or Ft. Meyers may have beat us. Per RadarLogic $SFT Decline Peak to Trough (so far):
Sacramento: -52.6%
Phoenix: -51.9%
Miami: -43.7%
Tampa: -41.0%
Jacksonville: -31.7%
If you want to see some serious cliff diving, check out Phoenix's graph on RadarLogic. BTW, the decline in San Diego (which is/was often cited as the bellweather market) is at 47.3%.
Keep in mind, all those other markets peaked after Sacramento so their ultimate decline may eventually exceed Sacramento's.
Yea I was thinking localized areas in Florida, but at least we don't have all of those empty condo towers.
The San Diego numbers make sense to me considering how out of control the bubble was there.
Cow_Tipping,
Now I'm confused. Are you flaming me or Swann?
Indymac is foreclosing on Greg Swann..
To quote Nelson from the Simpsons..."HA HA"
Garth Farkley said...
Cow_Tipping,
Now I'm confused. Are you flaming me or Swann?
Saturday, May 09, 2009 8:49:00 AM
Sorry I never re visited tis thread.
I am flaming or pretty much roasting Greg Swann. In a way I am being Greg Swann, and I am flaming you ... sorta, while making Greg swann look like a conniving greedy crook. Sorry no too well done I think.
Cool.
Cow_tipping.
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