Sacramento DataQuick Stats for May 2009
From the Sacramento Bee (updated article):
Sacramento County showed one of the biggest improvements regionally, with prices for existing homes alone climbing a dramatically higher 9.4 percent - from $160,000 in March and April to $175,000 in May. But that was still 22 percent below the May 2008 median of $225,000.Statistics by county
DataQuick analyst Andrew LePage attributed the abrupt May rise to a sales mix reflecting fewer hugely discounted bank repos and more higher-priced homes. "It's not home appreciation," he said. "It's just getting back to a more normal distribution of sales across the home price spectrum." Still, he said, "It could be that we've seen the lowest median in Sacramento County."
Statistics by zip
Other Central Valley counties [pdf]
Also: Sacramento area misses move-up homebuyers -- they're staying put
11 comments:
Yeah right...I'll be convinced we've seen the lowest when unemployment stops going up. Right now businesses are still going under. Many that are in business are hoping they'll be able to tide over the bad times. What happens when they decide to throw in the towel and their employees can't pay their mortgages?
Also, in a few months unemployed will transition from unemployment to welfare. That's when they won't be able to afford to put up a show any longer.
Of course, banks don't even have the manpower to deal with all the defaulting mortgages.
It's a great time to be in debt!
Bottom...no way!
"Also, in a few months unemployed will transition from unemployment to welfare. That's when they won't be able to afford to put up a show any longer."
I think that's dead-on. The continuing claims numbers went down fairly significantly yesterday and the media was crowing about how the economy was bottoming...What they failed to determine is if people have fallen off the roles, or if the economy strengthened and provided them jobs...I'm inclined to go with the former...
Stay tuned for revisions....it's the easiest way to let the public down nice and easy...
I'll believe we have seen the lowest median (not necessarily lowest prices due to the mix of homes as noted) when we see YOY increases. MOM increases, who cares.
CA Tax Revenue is way off YOY. Lots of job cuts yet to come from state and private companies.
Just to think, Sub Prime was contained and maybe there would be 100B in losses (or was that 100M?) and now all our free money acronym programs are up to 13 something Trillion...
No one wants to buy our debt so rates have to go up, but if rates go up we will be hurting. So what to do? Between a rock and a hard place and everyone will get crushed...
From the second article:
Everything above $400,000 is almost at a standstill. DataQuick says sales in move-up neighborhoods such as Land Park, east Sacramento and Arden Park are half their 10-year average since early 2008.
...Cynthia Hearden's $459,000 house in Sacramento's Land Park neighborhood has been slow to sell since its March listing...Kathy McKnight in the city's Pocket neighborhood decided not to offer her house for sale after an agent suggested an asking price of $525,000, less than she had hoped.
...
"We decided to rent it until the market goes up. It's not the right time right now," she said. "We figure in three years, it will go for a better price."
This is so reminiscent of 2006.
I don't buy the mix argument. The median works really well unless the dataset is very small. Also, with 400k+ not moving at all, the mix moving up argument doesn't make sense.
I think this is just a reflection of the dip in rates:
160k @5.5% = $909/mo.
175k @4.75% = $912/mo.
A couple months of 5.5% rates and I think we'll see the median drift back down.
The small sample set of homes I work with clearly show prices declining for similar homes.
Bottom calling, AGAIN?!
How many times will they say tyhis...and how long till someone figures out that if you have been wrong 10 times, the 11th time is NOT the charm?
I don't even think we are halfway thru the game.
As prior stories clearly state, the rampant speculation has not even ended, and in some ways has gotten worse.
You still have too many that are waiting to sell when the market 'comes back up'.
And the ARM resets...
All that pain has not been felt, yet.
Check this out:
Shadow Housing Inventory: Walked Away, but Lender Hasn't Foreclosed
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2009/06/shadow-housing-inventory-walked-away.html
We are VERY FAR from the bottom.
Just an exerpt from the PR post
""Prices will fall to the point where you have equilibrium, and it won't reach that until there is no longer this foreclosure overhang," Bellack said.
This could in turn put renewed stress on financial firms that carry mortgages or mortgage-backed securities on their books. As a general policy, many firms have been marking down the value of those assets as the loans become delinquent. But once the homes go into foreclosure and are sold, their value could decline even more, prompting another round of losses at financial companies."
This is a time bomb waiting to go off! It's turning into a bureaucratic nightmare complete with bottlenecks, delays, overburdened asset managers, and an faulty strategy that will produce the results opposite of intent.
Take the hit as it comes, and we'll eventually get to the other side.
I'll wager the wheels come of the bus in our area by October latest...
ZIP Realty listings have been surprisingly quiet the last few days. Is it because of the foreclosure moratorium? This market is so messed up, it's impossible to make any sense of it.
On a different note, does anyone know of a way to find out the health of one's bank (especially if it's private, or if it is a credit union)?
PR,
They haven't been too quiet but I may be watching a different segment of the market. I see lots of change in the 95814,95816,95818,95819 area but it's new listings and price reductions and not a lot of sales.
I also started compiling trustee sales by week for Yolo (small, easily segmented county) to get an idea of what the shadow market is doing. Once I have more then 6 current weeks, I'll post some data in the July watercooler. Hint: foreclosure completions look to be 200% of their 2008 levels.
Spring bounce ?
Cool.
Cow_tipping.
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