All That Drama For 1%?

From the Sacramento Bee:

Since 1976, the Sacramento housing market has experienced three distinct booms and busts. Each was longer and more dramatic than the one preceding it, according to a Bee review of data from the Federal Housing Finance Agency.

In the first boom, from 1976 to 1981, inflation-adjusted Sacramento home prices shot up by 37 percent, more than twice the national average, before falling by 15 percent, about the same as the rest of the nation.  In the boom that lasted from 1984 to 1990, home prices rose by 48 percent, after adjusting for inflation, while rising 12 percent nationwide. During the next seven years, Sacramento prices fell by 29 percent, compared to a 5 percent fall nationally.

The most recent boom ran from 1997 to 2006. It was the longest and the most extreme.  Spurred by easy credit and subprime lending, Sacramento home prices soared 135 percent after being adjusted for inflation, compared to a 50 percent increase nationwide. So far during the bust, home prices here have fallen 53 percent. The average drop across the United States has been about 25 percent.

The net result of all the ups and downs: Sacramento home prices grew by just 33 percent during the past 35 years, after adjusting for inflation, for a relatively mundane growth rate of about 1 percent each year.

'Business as Usual'

From the Tracy Press:

[C]rooked real estate agents were so common that to get targeted for prosecution, lenders and agents had to go the extra mile in duping buyers. “When I started out, everyone was doing that, those stated-income loans,” said Susan Wilson, who sells homes for Corral Hollow Real Estate in Tracy. “It’s really discouraging, because no one does them now, but the same people who did them are still selling homes.” She said that realization makes her consider leaving the business. “I just don’t want to be in a line of work where things like that could happen — where peoples’ lives are falling apart because of this industry,” she said.
...
“When we started out, that’s what we were taught,” Wilson said. “Even the veterans, with decades behind them, said this is the way to do it. No one said it was wrong — and when you’re new, how do you know?” In fact, victims of brokers and agents who helped people procure homes they couldn’t afford wonder why the people who misled them are still free. “It’s like business as usual,” Wilson said. “I wonder when, or if, it’s going to catch up with them.”

From News10:

What was expected to be a flood of foreclosures is turning out to be a trickle. Michael Lyon of Lyon Real Estate agreed..."It's becoming a seller's market. I didn't think I would be saying this for years." Lyon predicts that instead of seeing a wave of foreclosures sweep in over the next few months, it will likely now be a steady stream over the next few years.

From Rocklin & Roseville Today:

The greater Sacramento area housing market has improved, but it has not yet fully corrected itself. The first-time tax credit needs to be extended and if possible expanded in order to build upon the progress the market has made. Any uncertainty about the future of the credit has the power to dampen consumer demand. The best way to assure continued housing activity in Sacramento and around the country is to extend the credit and do it quickly. I urge you, even if you are not a potential first-time home buyer to contact your congressperson and ask them to support the extension of the credit.

Sacramento's RealtyCrack Addiction

New York Times - Sacramento economy's addiction to realtycrack among nation's highest

From the Sacramento Business Journal:

An upswing in home prices and a surprising rebound in consumer confidence this week have economists buoyant about a possible turnaround in the national economy. But for Sacramento? Not so much. Sacramentans’ mortgage debt, the weakness of the commercial real estate market and a bleak outlook for California overall have tempered any bright spots for the local economy.
...
“We predict things to get a little worse over the next 12 months,” said Ryan Sharp, director of The Center for Strategic Economic Research in Sacramento, which forecasts the region’s economy. “Sacramento isn’t going to outperform California.”
...
Ezra Becker, director of consulting and strategy for TransUnion’s financial services group...said Sacramentans’ mortgage problems are affecting spending habits. “A lot of people took pay cuts, they were laid off or had to make other adjustments,” he said.

From the Sacramento Bee:

A major credit reporting company predicts mortgage delinquency rates will continue rising in the Sacramento area – with 12 percent of homeowners falling at least two months behind on their payments by year's end. That's nearly twice the national projection and a dramatic jump from just two years ago, when less than 2 percent percent of area homeowners' notes were delinquent.
...
Double-digit percentage unemployment and unpaid furlough days are increasingly catching up with homeowners who have "safe" fixed-rate loans, rather than the subprime loans that initially sparked the housing crisis. Mike Himes, director of NeighborWorks Homeownership Center in Sacramento, which counsels struggling and first-time homeowners, said his office is seeing more clients facing growing debt and making choices between house payments and other expenses. His clientele includes a growing number of state workers whose paychecks have been pared by unpaid furloughs. "There's a lot of money borrowed to stay in the house and keep up with living expenses," Himes said. "This is becoming more and more of a problem."

Sacramento Foreclosure 'Surge' Dead Ahead?

From CNN Money: Buy foreclosures now - before it's too late

In many markets, if you want to buy a repossessed property, you better come with your best offer first -- and fast. You've heard of speed dating? It's got nothin' on foreclosure buying these days. In many places, anyone who wants to buy a foreclosure better act fast, or they're going to come away with bupkus.
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The hot spots for this fast-paced foreclosure activity are former bubble markets where foreclosures soared -- places like California cities Sacramento, Riverside and San Bernardino. In Sacramento, for example, the inventory is down to less than 30 days, making it a cut-throat market.
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The trend is causing intense agita for buyers. "People feel like they're getting left out," said [Caesar] Dias, the agent in Stockton.

From News10:

Declining home values might also be in our future, especially homes priced at $300,000 and up. Jim Waters, a regional director for Lyon Real Estate, said there are more than 20,000 foreclosed homes waiting to be released by lenders just in the Sacramento region.

"We're going to see a good surge, probably in the middle to latter part of September or the end of the 3rd quarter, and that surge will run all the way through the end of the year and all of next year, from what they're telling us," said Waters, who talks regularly with banking executives.

When asked if the economy will see as many foreclosures in the coming year as the past two years, Waters replied, "More, more."

From the Sacramento Bee:

In Sacramento "we have a lot more decompressing to do," added Sanjay Varshney, dean of the College of Business Administration at California State University, Sacramento. "Normally, I would have said we would have defined a bottom, too, later this year or early next year. I think for us the challenge is the government layoffs have just begun. "We might be looking at our cycle to be pushed out compared to the national cycle," he said.

Sacramento Foreclosures via Google Maps

View Larger Map

Hat tip: Lansner on Real Estate

Also: Defaults starting to tag wealthier Sacramento-area ZIP Codes

DataQuick's Sacramento Housing Market Numbers for June 2009

14-month streak of year-over-year home sales gains ends (updated article)
Housing market statistics by county

Also: Sacramento-area rents fall for third straight quarter (chart)

Foreclosure Stats for June; MLS Sales Go Negative

Year-over-year change
NOD: 6.9%
NTS: -26.0%

From ForeclosureRadar:

[California] Notices of Trustee Sale dropped...with the timing of the drop indicating that it was in response to the California Foreclosure Prevention Act. This law was widely believed to have little or no impact on foreclosure filings, as it exempted the majority of large lenders that operate in the state. “A number of lenders appear to have self-imposed California’s latest foreclosure moratorium on themselves, despite having received an exemption from it,” says Sean O’Toole, founder and CEO of ForeclosureRadar. “Given the number of exempt lenders it was quite surprising to see Notice of Trustee Sale filings drop by nearly 50 percent the day the new law went into effect.”
...
Notice of Trustee Sale filings were climbing late in the month so it remains unlikely this law will have any longterm impact on foreclosure activity.

Of note this month, June MLS sales were down year-over-year for the first time since January 2008.



Also worth a look (hat tip readers):
Sacramento: 70 Percent Distressed Sales in June
Economists say recovery is on the way, but it will take awhile
13%+ Sacramento Regional Unemployment Rate Likely in 2010 [pdf]
Industry searches high and low for signs of hope
Delta town struggles to hang on with 25 percent out of work
Sacramento asking prices flatlining
Movin' on Up: Mortgage defaults spread as even 'safe' borrowers falter
High-end Immunity Alert: East Sacramento tops for reduced-priced listings
Rare East Sac Million Dollar Bank Repo For Sale
Low sales for high-end
Beyond ZIndex: Zillow adds charts of sold price per sqft, median sold price, list price and more. Some of the data goes back 10 years and can be segregated by metro, county, city, and neighborhood as well as by home type and configuration. (Note: data lags several months)

Sacramento DataQuick Stats for May 2009

From the Sacramento Bee (updated article):

Sacramento County showed one of the biggest improvements regionally, with prices for existing homes alone climbing a dramatically higher 9.4 percent - from $160,000 in March and April to $175,000 in May. But that was still 22 percent below the May 2008 median of $225,000.

DataQuick analyst Andrew LePage attributed the abrupt May rise to a sales mix reflecting fewer hugely discounted bank repos and more higher-priced homes. "It's not home appreciation," he said. "It's just getting back to a more normal distribution of sales across the home price spectrum." Still, he said, "It could be that we've seen the lowest median in Sacramento County."

Statistics by county
Statistics by zip
Other Central Valley counties [pdf]

Also: Sacramento area misses move-up homebuyers -- they're staying put

Repo Flood or Trickle?

From the Sacramento Bee:

More than 20,000 troubled homes are growing into a massive "phantom" inventory that could potentially be unloaded onto an already fragile housing market.
...
[ForeclosureRadar's Sean] O'Toole, for one, believes big banks may continue to foreclose more slowly, and will "dribble out" their accumulated repo properties in hopes of a market change. "I talk to them," he said. "It's like, 'If we don't foreclose, we see the market heat up again. You get a certain number of people who believe it's a bottom and the prices come back. Then we don't need to foreclose. These people can sell and get out from under them and we end up OK.' " Dribbling them out slowly would keep prices stable, he said. But it also would prolong the housing correction.
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Field Check's [Mark] Hanson doesn't buy O'Toole's theory, even as they work off the same data. He predicts a flood of cheap repo inventory on the market this summer. "The government and bank-specific moratoriums and modification initiatives have held back the massive wave of foreclosures," he said, "kicking the can down the road. But there is only so high the floodwaters can build before breaking the dam."

Yet even a torrent of repo inventory on the market won't pull median prices – now at $160,000 for existing Sacramento County homes – any lower, he said. That's because more higher-priced homes are in the foreclosure process and will tug the median upward in coming months. "It does not mean the market is getting better," he said.

DataQuick's Sacramento Real Estate Market Statistics for April 2009

SacBee: Area median home prices begin to stabilize
Updated: Capital-area home prices stop slide, for now
DataQuick's Sacramento real estate market statistics: by zip, by county
Modesto Bee: Stockton Metro At 1999 Levels

Sacramento Real Estate Market Charts - April 2009

After steadily declining this spring, average price per square foot rose 1.8% from March. According to TrendGraphix, that was the first monthly increase in Sacramento County since April 2007. Prices are still below January levels and down 23.1% from last year.

Turning to median price, the Sacramento Association of Realtors reports the median price in Sacramento County (and West Sacramento) fell 29.5% in April. That was the first year-over-year decline since March 2008 not to reach at least -30%.




So far, no "spring bounce" for median price as measured by the MLS. The median for single-family homes has been essentially flat since February. Unlike the previous three years, the median price has remained below January levels.




The median price is now at April 2001 levels.

Sales in April were 17% higher than the previous year. That was the smallest year-over-year increase since March 2008.




Looking at the historical record, sales remain at relatively high levels. While the inevitable spring bounce between February and March was the weakest in at least 9 years, that is not surprising considering the record sales of January and February.

Here's a look at the percentage of MLS sales which were bank-owned. At its peak in January 2009, REO sales made up three-fourths of total MLS sales. That proportion has dropped off in the last few months as REO inventory has shrunk, presumably due to legislative tinkering and private foreclosure moratoriums.

Finally, here's an update on Sacramento County's foreclosure statistics from ForeclosureRadar.

NY Times: Signs of Recovery in Sacramento's Housing Market

From the New York Times:

Is this what a bottom looks like? This city was among the first in the nation to fall victim to the real estate collapse. Now it seems to be in the earliest stages of a recovery, a hopeful sign for an economy mired in trouble and anxiety.

The Times cites increased sales to investors and first-time buyers, reduced inventory, and stabilizing prices as signs of recovery.

“It’s fragile, and it could easily be fleeting,” said an MDA DataQuick analyst, Andrew LePage. “But history suggests this is how things might look six months before prices bottom out.”...No one in Sacramento is predicting that local housing prices, which have been cut in half from their mid-2005 peak, are going to reclaim much of that ground anytime soon. Instead, this is what passes for wild-eyed optimism: a belief that things have finally stopped getting worse. “A period of price stagnation would boost a lot of spirits,” Mr. LePage said.
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“[Upcoming wave of foreclosures]...will stall any progress toward stability,” said Michael Lyon, chief executive of Lyon Real Estate. “The prospects for a recovery are fool’s gold.” Mr. Lyon expects further price declines and slowing sales. But David Berson, the chief economist for the mortgage insurer PMI, argues that such bleakness from the people whose livelihood is selling houses is itself a positive sign. “Things are awful at the bottom, and we’re at the bottom,” Mr. Berson said. “No question about it. But the trend going forward should be higher sales, and that will eventually affect prices.”

Have we hit bottom? Please vote in the poll on the right. Add your opinion in the comments below.

From the Sacramento Bee:

Nearly four years into California's housing downturn, close to 24,000 Sacramento-area homes and apartments are vacant, a number that climbed 40 percent in the past year, according to a Bee analysis of federal data. Roughly a third, or about 7,200, of the six-county region's vacant homes have been empty longer than a year. About 3,500 have been empty longer than two years.
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Reasons vary for the surge of vacant dwellings. Area real estate agents and others Monday cited recent foreclosure moratoriums and banks increasingly sitting on large numbers of repossessed homes. Apartment communities also report rising vacancies as 11.3 percent regional unemployment forces renters to double up or move back in with family members.

ACORN to the rescue

"Protesters disrupted several foreclosure auctions Tuesday on the Sacramento County Courthouse steps, winning a temporary cancellation of one and sending an unidentified auctioneer to the hospital with chest pains. Bidders on dozens of foreclosed Sacramento-area homes, all declining to provide their names, called the ACORN protest the first major disruption of an established auction schedule that plays out every weekday at the courthouse...."

More from the Sacramento Bee.

80% Off

From the Sacramento Bee:

It's now possible to buy a Sacramento home for less than the price of a Honda Accord. At least two dozen homes in the Sacramento region sold during the last three months for $25,000 or less....In Oak Park and Del Paso Heights...median home prices have fallen 80 percent from their mid-2006 peak to around $60 a square foot.
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On Tuesday...Deutsche Bank lowered the price on a vacant, 728-square-foot home on 21st Avenue in the heart of Oak Park from $29,000 to $19,000. The house had belonged to the same family for years. An investor purchased it for $197,000, or $270 per square foot, in mid-2005, property records show...Seven months after buying it, the first investor sold the property again to another out-of-town buyer for $255,000, or $350 per square foot. In December, Deutsche Bank foreclosed. Today, the home is selling for $26 per square foot.
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Most real estate experts expect many more sub-$25,000 homes on the market. They predict more foreclosures, leading to more vacant homes, leading to more desperate banks..."There's a whole lot of inventory that has not been cleared," said [Real estate investor Reggie] Lal, the real estate investor, referring to foreclosures still on the market. The number of homes selling for less than $25,000, he added, is "going to explode."

Related post: Housing Bubble Casualties: Professionals 'Suckered' into Oak Park

Redfin Comes to Sacramento

Redfin Expands to New York, California's Central Valley
Blog: Sacramento Sweet Digs
Sacramento Homes For Sale/Market Trends
All Sacramento Area Cities

Price Per Square Foot: Spring Slide (So Far)

Unlike other measures of home prices, there has been no "spring bounce" (so far) when price is measured by square foot. In fact, in contrast to the previous three years, prices have neither bounced nor plateaued. Whether this descent will continue or is merely a lagging indicator remains to be seen.

DataQuick: Sacramento Median Price Up From February

From the Sacramento Bee (updated article):

...[T]he median sales price for new and existing homes combined in Sacramento County rose for the first time in more than a year to $165,000, up $5,000 from February's median.

DataQuick numbers by county here. By zip here.

DataQuick figures for San Joaquin, Stanislaus, and Merced here (updated).

ForeclosureRadar: Sacramento Defaults Hit New High

The Bay Area will save us...or not

I'd be remiss if I didn't post links to the following set of articles. As the Sacramento housing market descended into the abyss, the Sacramento Bee floated (or pushed depending on your point of view) a series of bullish arguments about the local real estate market. Bullish theories included:

• Rents are about to skyrocket
• Sacramento's strong economy will blunt the effects of the housing downturn
• The housing downturn won't be as severe/long as the 1990s housing bust
• Renewed Bay Area migration will save us as Sacramento homes are now so cheap in comparison
• High-end/"core areas" are recession proof

The paper has conceded that the first three theories haven't actually worked out as planned (to say the least). Now it looks like they have capitulated on the "Bay Area will save use" theory:

In area conversations about real estate it's often an act of faith that a widening gap between Sacramento and Bay Area home prices might soon spark a new migration east to buy houses cheap and put an end to free-falling prices here.

Nice theory. But wrong. The once-widening gap that seemed to promise help has already closed. While 17 months ago the median sales price in Santa Clara County was $388,000 higher than in Sacramento County, it's now $248,000 higher, says researcher MDA DataQuick. Prices have tumbled in both counties to narrow the original gap.

It means we won't be seeing thousands of Bay Area residents coming anytime soon to prop up Sacramento's housing market or, by extension, its stores, office buildings and economy.

When they capitulate on the last theory (high-end immunity), we should be much closer to bottom.

More from the Stockton Record:

If you're a homeowner hoping for an equity-swelling Boom II, fed by Bay Area residents swarming back over the Altamont Pass again to start snapping up cheaper Valley home prices, forget about it - at least anytime soon. Home sellers and builders report that few Bay Area buyers are out shopping for homes in San Joaquin County, even with prices having been cut by almost 44 percent year-to-year to a median of $155,000 in February. Existing homes in Contra Costa County are moving at a median sales price of not much more than $200,000, for example, after prices shrank by 52.2 percent year to year in the foreclosure-hammered residential downturn.

"I don't see Bay Area buyers coming back yet, because the prices there are so affordable and the interest rates are so good," said Jerry Abbott, president and co-owner of Grupe Real Estate in Stockton...When a "normal" market returns, Bay Area prices will regain its typically much higher, pricier ground, and Central Valley prices will look much more attractive again, they said. "It will come back but not anytime soon," Abbott said.

DataQuick: Sacramento Median Price Back to 2000 Levels

Another milestone.

From the Sacramento Bee:

Prices keep falling.

February brought the lowest median sales price to Sacramento County's housing market since December 2000 as bank repos drove a decline to $160,000, researcher MDA DataQuick said Thursday. The county median...is down 59 percent from a 2005 high of $387,000.

Statistics by county

Modesto & Stockton metros are now down 66% from peak, while Merced hit -72%.