WSJ: Gentle Landing Hopes Dead

From the California Association of Realtors:

Home sales decreased 38.9 percent in September in California compared with the same period a year ago, while the median price of an existing home fell 4.7 percent, the CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® (C.A.R.) reported today...The September 2007 median price fell 9.9 percent compared with August’s $588,970 median price
...
"While it is typical for the median price to dip seasonally as we move from August to September, this decline -- which was both the largest month-to-month percentage decline on record and the first year-to-year decline in more than 10 years -- was mainly the result of the credit or liquidity crunch, which also drove sales below the 300,000 mark,” said C.A.R. President Colleen Badagliacco.

From the Sacramento Business Journal:

In Sacramento, the median price dropped more than 11 percent to $325,550 compared to $369,400 September 2006. The number of sales matched the statewide decline of 38.9 percent.

The CAR median for Sacramento has declined 17.5% since peaking in August 2005.

DQNews data for California counties and cities is available here and archived here. Compare to other price measurements here.

From the Wall Street Journal:

Some forecasters now warn that home prices are unlikely to start rising in most of the country before 2009 or 2010. A year ago, many home builders and lenders still thought that the housing boom -- which more than doubled prices in some areas during the first half of this decade -- would end with a gentle landing. Now those hopes are dead.
...
In Orlando, the supply of single-family homes and condos is enough to last 28 months. That compares with about 24 months in the Detroit metro area; 20 months in Tampa, Fla.; 15 in Sacramento, Calif.; 13 in the Northern Virginia suburbs of Washington, D.C.; and 11 in the Atlanta area, according to Realtors and consultants. Even in some of the nation's strongest markets, such as Seattle and Portland, Ore., supply is rising fast. In the Portland area, for instance, the supply is enough to last 8.6 months, up from 4.5 months a year ago.

Chart: Where Housing is Headed

DQNews July 2007 Results (Take 2)

Let's try this again. Year-over-year (yoy) change in median prices for the 4-county area (resale single family residences and condos as well as new homes):

• El Dorado: -0.94%
• Placer: -6.52%
• Sacramento: -11.10%
• Yolo: -5.37%
  

Sacramento County's median price has now declined 14 consecutive months on a year-over-year basis. The number of California counties with yoy declines has doubled since last July (from 11/32 to 22/32). Five counties registered double-digit drops.

Mid-Year Graph-o-rama

It's time for this blogger to go on vacation. But before I leave, I thought I'd churn out these graphs for your viewing pleasure. Click on each graph to enlarge. As always, you can compare different price measurements here.

Sacramento Association of Realtors


Change from Peak: -$52,800


Change from Peak: -13.4%


YoY Change: -10.5% (1st Double-Digit Decline)
12th Consecutive Month of Price Declines YoY


YoY Change: -26.5%
v. June 2005: -55.1%
v. June 2004: -58.5% (boom sales peak)


California Association of Realtors


Change from Peak: -$42,830


Change from Peak: -10.9%


YoY Change: -8.5%
12th Consecutive Month of Price Declines YoY


27th Consecutive Month of Sales Declines YoY
22nd Consecutive Month of Double-Digit Declines YoY


DQNews


YoY Change: -11.2%
13th Consecutive Month of Price Declines YoY


Sacramento Bee (TrendGraphix)

DQNews July June 2007 Results

Change in Median Sales Price from July June 2006 (resale single family residences and condos, new homes)

El Dorado: -0.82%
Sacramento: -11.17%
Placer: -4.33%
Yolo: -4.39%

About [edit] A year ago, this blog noted that 11 counties registered year-over-year price declines. Now 25 out of 32 counties have joined California's depreciation club (whose founding member was Placer). Nine counties made the exclusive double-digit depreciation list.

Not So Soft Landing: Sacramento Median Price Down By Double-Digits YOY

March 2007 median price statistics from DataQuick's dqnews.com (and archived here):

• El Dorado: -13.72%
  
• Placer: -7.79%
  
• Sacramento: -10.53%
  
• Yolo: -12.59%
  

Statistics are for resale single-family residences and condos as well as new homes. Percent change is from the same month last year or "year-over-year" (yoy).

Significantly, this was the first time Sacramento County's median price breached the negative double-digit threshold for this particular price measurement. It was also the 10th consecutive month of yoy price declines.

Click here to compare with other Sacramento housing market price indexes.

Sacramento Housing Market Statistics

More DataQuick median price numbers for February via dqnews (and archived here):

• El Dorado: -1.34%
  
• Placer: -5.38%
  
• Sacramento: -6.98%
  
• Yolo: -10.00%
  

Data is for resale single-family residences and condos as well as new homes.

Since Placer County became the first California county to register a price decline back in January 2006, the 4-county region has largely dominated the California depreciation club. In February 2007, that distinction passed to Merced County, which registered a 14.67% decline.

Significantly, February was the first month in which all listed Central Valley counties chalked up year-over-year (yoy) price declines, with Kern County finally succumbing:

• Fresno: -6.33%
  
• Kern: -1.83%
  
• Madera: -5.27%
  
• Merced: -14.67%
  
• San Joaquin: -7.11%
  
• Stanislaus: -9.38%
  
• Tulare: -4.09%
  

Here are February results from the California Association of Realtors. This data is based on MLS single-family homes sales in the Sacramento region.

• Change in median price (yoy): -1.2% [8th month of yoy declines]
  
• Change in median price (from peak): -5.2%
  
• Change in homes sold (yoy): -17.5% [23rd month of yoy declines, 18th month of yoy double-digit declines]

Here are the Sacramento Association of Realtors (SAR) results for February. Figures are for MLS single-family home sales in Sacramento County and West Sacramento. Additional statistics are available here.

• Change in median price (yoy): -1.5% [8th month of yoy declines]
• Change in median price (from peak): -6.4%
• Change in homes sold (yoy): -14.7% [21st month of yoy declines, 18th month of double-digit declines]

The SAR sales graph has been updated. Click to enlarge.



Interestingly, in SAR's press release [pdf], the organization acknowledged the impact the sub-prime implosion is likely to have on the Sacramento housing market.

The Association of REALTORS® is aware that the widely publicized restructuring in the sub-prime lending market will likely have a dampening effect on real estate sales, at least in the short term. "Being entangled in risky loans and a declining market is clearly painful for lenders as well as mortgage borrowers,” said [SAR President Tracey] Saizan. "More disciplined lending policies will be good in the long run for home buyers and the mortgage bankers who serve them."

Given the mortgage meltdown, will sales peak in March as they did last year?

Want more? Julie Jalone has TrendGraphix's press release for February. Based on the press release and the information available at golyon.com, the average price per square foot in Sacramento County declined 5.0% from last year and 9.4% since peaking in September 2005. Pending sales dropped 8.5% from the prior year.

Location (Negative), Location (Negative), Location (Negative)

For the first time in the current housing bust, every reporting zip code in Sacramento County showed a price decline in January from year ago levels. The following graph shows the percentage of zip codes registering price drops based on the median price per sq. ft. of resale single-family detached homes. Click to enlarge.



Agent Bubble has been kind enough to provide average price per sq./ft. data for all residential MLS listings in Sacramento County (for January):

• Change in price since last year: -9.9%
• Change in price since 2005 peak: -12.0%
  

Meanwhile, the California Association of Realtors released their price and sales data for January 2007. The data is based on MLS single-family homes sales in the Sacramento region.

• Change in median price since last January: -3.4%
  
• 7th month of year-over-year (YoY) price declines
  
• Change in median since price peak: -8.6% (down $34,110)
  
• Change in homes sold since last January: -20.9%
• 22nd month of YoY sales declines, 17th month of YoY double-digit declines

DataQuick's dqnews.com also has January's city/county numbers for combined sales (resale single family residences and condos as well as new homes). Yolo County continues to lead California in year-over-year price declines.

• El Dorado: -6.81%
  
• Placer: -9.01%
  
• Sacramento: -6.25%
  
• Yolo: -22.50%
  

January's DQ stats are archived here.

DataQuick Revises Figures Back to 1988

From the OCRegister:

Most noteworthy in this month's DataQuick report is the fact that the market tracker has revamped its home-sales math....The changes include a broader definition of a home sale and a new way to calculate the median price. Figures back to 1988 were revamped.

From DQNews:

The change, the first since DataQuick began publishing statistics in 1989, takes advantage of significant data enhancements the past 18 years.

These changes...will take effect starting with our published January 2007 sales statistics.

Sales counts: Changes in our methodology to determine the number of sales transactions have resulted in a roughly 10 percent increase, on average, in our historical monthly sales totals. In most cases this has little if any impact on the year-over-year increase or decline in sales.

Median sale prices: The main change here is a switch from a so-called weighted median price to a straight median for our "all homes" category, which combines resale houses, resale condos and all new homes. On average, this change results in a roughly 1 percent difference in the all-home median sale price historically.

In addition, some of our other medians (for resale houses and new homes) have changed slightly because of various database enhancements. Again, these changes are mostly minor and do not alter historical trends.

CAR & DataQuick Results for December 2006

DataQuick's dqnews.com has posted their December city/county numbers for combined sales (resale single family residences and condos as well as new homes). Yolo County continues to lead the state in year-over-year (YoY) price declines. What a difference a year makes. In December 2005, all four counties were clocking double-digit appreciation. Now all four counties are experiencing double-digit or close to double-digit depreciation.

El Dorado County

• YoY median price change: -9.66% [v. +12.04% in December 2005]
  
• 2nd month of YoY price declines
  
• Change in median since price peak: -11.04% (down $56,000)

Placer County

• YoY median price change: -15.73% [v. +16.53% in December 2005]
  
• 9th month of YoY price declines, 5th month of YoY double-digit declines
  
• Change in median since price peak: -16.59% (down $85,500)

Sacramento County

• YoY median price change: -9.00% [v. +13.64% in December 2005]
• 7th month of YoY price declines
  
• Change in median since price peak: -9.70% (down $37,832)

Yolo County

• YoY median price change: -16.76% [v. +24.84% in December 2005]
• 6th month of YoY price declines, 5th month of YoY double-digit declines
  
• Change in median since price peak: Yolo: -16.76% (down $81,950)

The DQ stats are archived here.

This graph tracks Sacramento County's median home price since its peak in November 2005.



This next graph shows the year-over-year change in median price since November 2005.



The California Association of Realtors also released their price and sales data for December 2006. Here's how the Sacramento region's resale single-family homes fared:

• YoY change in median price: -4.3%
  
• 6th month of YoY price declines
  
• Change in median since price peak: -8.1% (down $31,790)
  
• YoY change in sales: -25.6%
• 21st month of YoY sales declines, 16th month of YoY double-digit declines

West Sacramento Prices "Tumbled" 26% in a Year

The Sacramento Business Journal reports on November's CAR & DataQuick stats:

Report: West Sac home prices fall 26 percent in a year

Sacramento-area's median home price plummeted and sales tumbled in November from a year earlier, the latest evidence of a struggling real estate market. Home prices in the four-county region declined 3.9 percent to $365,000 in November compared to a year ago, according to a California Association of Realtors (CAR) report released Thursday. But several markets -- including Elk Grove and West Sacramento -- reported much larger price drops [Keep in mind the city data is from DataQuick and measures combined (all) sales of existing and new homes.]

Existing-home sales fell 24.5 percent last month in the Sacramento area compared to November 2005, according to the closely watched monthly report. The region's sales drop was one of the largest in the state.
...
West Sacramento's median-home price -- meaning half the homes sold for more, half for less -- tumbled 26.2 percent last month to $363,500, easily the largest decline in the region.

Elk Grove, Lincoln and Placerville also endured double-digit percentage declines in median price from a year ago. Placerville fell 14.6 percent to $365,000; Lincoln dropped 13.8 percent to $420,909; and Elk Grove declined 12.9 percent to $428.000. The Realtor group cautioned that communities with small numbers of transactions may see unusually large fluctuations in median prices.

And all four counties reported lower home prices, led by a 16 percent decline in Yolo County. El Dorado County had the smallest drop, down 4.3 percent. Placer and Sacramento counties' median home prices fell 12.6 percent and 8.8 percent, respectively.

CAR report here.
DQNews/DataQuick report here (and archived here).

DataQuick Results for October 2006

DataQuick's dqnews.com has posted their October numbers for combined sales (resale single family residences and condos as well as new homes). This time around, Yolo County leads the state in year-over-year price declines.

• El Dorado: 5.63%
• Placer: -15.00%
• Sacramento: -7.79%
• Yolo: -15.74%

As suggested by Robert Coté back in August, the number of California counties with y-o-y price declines now outnumbers those with price gains, by almost 2-1.

Double Digit Soft Landing?

DataQuick's dqnews.com has posted their September numbers for California (archived here). From the Sacramento Business Journal:

All four counties reported lower median home prices, including a 16.5 percent decline in Placer and 15.6 percent in Yolo. Sacramento and El Dorado counties fared relatively better, with price drops of 6.1 percent and 1.8 percent, respectively...

Several area cities reported double-digit price decline, including a 27.1 percent tumble in West Sacramento to $350,000, according to the monthly report. Lincoln and Roseville prices plummeted 18.4 percent and 17.9 percent, respectively.

Only a handful of local cities reported slight increases in home prices, paced by 2 percent in Rancho Cordova and 1.7 percent in El Dorado Hills.

Sacramento Region Median Prices - August 2006

DataQuick's dqnews.com just posted their August numbers for California. Placer County again leads the way down with a double-digit decline.

• El Dorado: -0.21%
  
• Placer: -14.40%
  
• Sacramento: -4.41%
  
• Yolo: -12.81%
  

This graph shows the percent change in median home prices for the Sacramento region's four counties. This includes resale single family residences and condos as well as new homes.

Placer Not So Lonely Anymore

Back in January of this year, Placer County was the only California county listed by DQNews to suffer a year-over-year price decline. Six months later, Placer has plenty of company in the depreciation club, according to the latest DataQuick numbers for July:

• Placer: -7.07%
  
• Marin: -6.61%
• San Benito: -6.45%
• Yolo: -6.16%
• El Dorado: -3.93%
• Santa Cruz: -3.43%
• Sacramento: -3.42%
• Sonoma: -1.82%
  
• Monterey: -1.77%
• San Diego: -1.74%
  
• Napa: -1.32%

Data is for resale single family residences and condos as well as new homes.

Odds & Ends

• DataQuick has released June median price figures for California. Here's how the Sacramento region fared on a year-to-year basis:

El Dorado: -0.10%
Sacramento: -1.33%
Placer: -7.22%
Yolo: 3.70%

• The Sacramento Business Journal looks at Trendgraphix figures for June & the first half of 2006.
• NPR interviews the author of Fortune Magazine's Housing Dead Zones article. Sacramento mentioned. Worth the listen.
• The Sacramento Bee reports that area rents still haven't budged much over the last quarter.
  
• KCRA has an update on the Folsom repartments story. Now toxic mold?

Sacramento Land(ed) at 0.00%, Yolo Pops: Double-Digit Depreciation Era Begins?

The housing Eagle has landed. According to just-released DataQuick figures, Sacramento County experienced no appreciation in May 2006, as compared to May 2005. The median price for all homes (single family homes, condos, and new homes) in Sacramento County was $367,000 for both May 2005 and May 2006.

In fact, according to DataQuick, no county in the Sacramento region saw price appreciation in May, with the three other counties suffering price depreciation:

• Sacramento: 0.00%
• Placer: -2.02%
• El Dorado: -3.89%
• Yolo: -11.14%

Did you notice the double-digit decline in Yolo County? In February, I noted that Placer County was the only listed California county to suffer depreciation in January. Now it appears that Yolo County is the only (and perhaps first) listed county to suffer double-digit depreciation. The same caveat applies: Yolo is a small county and the monthly numbers are much more erratic than those of more populated counties like Sacramento. But even so, when was the last time a California county found itself with double digit depreciation?

Last time I asked whether the era of depreciation had begun. Now that the Sacramento housing boom is officially over, is the double digit depreciation era about to commence? Will the Eagle take flight back into the air, roll along the surface, or sink into the quicksand? Stay tuned...

More DataQuick Numbers for April

DQNews has posted the DataQuick "total" numbers (resale houses/condos and new homes) for April 2006. The following shows the percent change in median sales price from the prior year.

• Sacramento County: 2.86%

• Placer County: -0.53%

• El Dorado County: 7.38%

• Yolo County: 1.47%

Placer Pops - YoY Depreciation Era Begins?

Sorry San Diego (3.67%). Sorry Marin (1.30%).

It looks like Placer County wins the race to 0%. According to DataQuick News, the median sale price in Placer County dropped -0.38% in January 2006 compared with the prior January. (This includes single family homes, condos, and new home sales.) Placer County includes some of Sacramento's eastern suburbs, including cities such as Roseville, Rocklin, and Lincoln.

According to DataQuick, Placer is the only listed county in California to suffer year-over-year depreciation in January.

Caveats: January is supposedly a "quirky" month and Placer is a relatively small market (and therefore the numbers fluctuate more than larger markets such as Sacramento County). But even so, how long has it been since any county in California experienced year-over-year depreciation? Are we finally in "hard landing" territory? Can we now officially declare that the "bubble" has burst? Stay tuned...