Sacramento Real Estate Market Charts - April 2009

After steadily declining this spring, average price per square foot rose 1.8% from March. According to TrendGraphix, that was the first monthly increase in Sacramento County since April 2007. Prices are still below January levels and down 23.1% from last year.

Turning to median price, the Sacramento Association of Realtors reports the median price in Sacramento County (and West Sacramento) fell 29.5% in April. That was the first year-over-year decline since March 2008 not to reach at least -30%.




So far, no "spring bounce" for median price as measured by the MLS. The median for single-family homes has been essentially flat since February. Unlike the previous three years, the median price has remained below January levels.




The median price is now at April 2001 levels.

Sales in April were 17% higher than the previous year. That was the smallest year-over-year increase since March 2008.




Looking at the historical record, sales remain at relatively high levels. While the inevitable spring bounce between February and March was the weakest in at least 9 years, that is not surprising considering the record sales of January and February.

Here's a look at the percentage of MLS sales which were bank-owned. At its peak in January 2009, REO sales made up three-fourths of total MLS sales. That proportion has dropped off in the last few months as REO inventory has shrunk, presumably due to legislative tinkering and private foreclosure moratoriums.

Finally, here's an update on Sacramento County's foreclosure statistics from ForeclosureRadar.

Price Per Square Foot: Spring Slide (So Far)

Unlike other measures of home prices, there has been no "spring bounce" (so far) when price is measured by square foot. In fact, in contrast to the previous three years, prices have neither bounced nor plateaued. Whether this descent will continue or is merely a lagging indicator remains to be seen.

Stockton: $250,000 Off Peak

From the Stockton Record:

TrendGraphix said the median sales price fell from $190,000 in October to $175,000 last month in San Joaquin County. That compares with a $200,000 sales mark in January 2002, when TrendGraphix began tracking sales as the market was well into the start of a six-year boom.

That's a whopping $250,000 price cut from its $425,000 peak in September 2005.



From CNNMoney:

The worst performing market in the nation [according to Zillow.com] was Stockton, Calif. The average home price there plunged 32.3% year-over-year to $210,179 in the first three quarters of 2008. Almost as bad were nearby Merced, down 31.2% to $167,282, and Modesto, was was off 30.4% to $197,368 in the same time period.

[Zillow's Stan] Humphries expressed surprise that these areas are still performed so poorly. "I would have thought that they would have produced some more positive trends by now," he said, "but we are seeing no slowdown."

From the Christian Science Monitor:

The housing market in California's Central Valley...is showing signs of new life...Buyers are out in force. Here in Lathrop, Calif., and in nearby Stockton – the nation's foreclosure capital – home prices could be bottoming out..."At this point, I don't think you'll see more price declines in Stockton," [says ForeclosureRadar's Sean O'Toole].
...
A recent NAR survey found 20 percent of buyers are investors, but Stockton-area real estate agents put the investor share at one-third or more...The pricing floor provided by these investors, however, has broken through several times when the number of new listings exceeded the ability of investors to absorb them, he [real estate agent Jim Muthart] says.
...
Strong rent prices are key to a good return, and rents have softened recently, says Muthart...[D]on't assume each foreclosure equals a new renter, argues Caroline Latham, CEO of RealFacts, a rental data-tracking firm. Many families who are foreclosed on will move in with another family or move to a cheaper region, not rent. "We are seeing a return to the notions that [investors] had in 2005," warns Ms. Latham, referring to the buying frenzy in the run-up to the housing bubble peak. "They think they'll be able to rent it and come out smelling good."

Perfect Storm - Sacramento Median 50% Off Peak, Drops Below 200K

We're right on track for a 50% decline by 2009 2008.




Source: Sacramento Association of Realtors

A History of Sacramento Home Prices

As I often get readers coming to the blog searching for historical charts of Sacramento home prices, I thought I'd throw this one up. Click on the chart for a better view. The chart shows median home prices in Sacramento County (and West Sacramento) since 1987 and is based on data from the Sacramento Association of Realtors. Also included on the graph are some key indicators such as inventory, affordability, employment, and foreclosures.

Stockton Realtor: 90% of Sales are Foreclosures and Short Sales

From Lyon Real Estate (via Home Front):

Our [4-county] average price has dropped to 297,000 down from a high of 472,000 in June of 2006. Inventory is now 16% lower than the same period last year but this does not mean we are at the bottom yet. There has been a continued increase in ‘notice of default’ being filed and those homes will be coming on the market in the next 60 days. In addition to that, REO (bank owned) accounts for 58% of all Pended and Sold transactions.
...
[E]ven though sales are brisk and better than last year we are still seeing price per foot of the sold properties continue to drop. REO inventory is expected to increase through the summer and if interest rates start to rise we will see greater pressure on home values to decline.

Unlike 2006 and 2007, there was no spring bounce in Sacramento home prices this year.



From the Stockton Record:

The momentum in existing-home sales in San Joaquin County has continued to build, with May sales reaching the highest monthly level since August 2005 as more buyers snapped up primarily foreclosure properties...The median selling price also continued to slip, sliding from $240,000 in April to $237,000 last month throughout the county, the report said. That's the lowest median price seen in the county since February 2003.
...
In a traditional sales market, a cross section of houses sell,...Art Godi of Art Godi Realtors...said. Currently, about 90 percent of sales are foreclosures and short sales, and almost all are under $250,000, he said, "and that's the bottom of the market."

From the Sacramento Bee:

Developer Allen Wayne Warren once planned to build hundreds of new housing units on and around Del Paso Boulevard, the North Sacramento main street the city has worked for years to revitalize. But the falling real estate market caused Warren to scale back his dreams. Now, he's negotiating to sell three mostly vacant properties on the boulevard to the Sacramento Housing and Redevelopment Agency.
...
If Warren accepts $1.4 million for the mostly vacant properties, he will be taking a substantial loss. According to property records, he paid about $2.5 million for the properties in 2005 and 2006.

From the CVBT:

For home sellers who are desperately devout or devoutly desperate, Modesto mortgage banker Philip Cates has something he’d like them to bury. Mr. Cates sells plastic statues of the Roman Catholic Saint Joseph. Home sellers desperate for any kind of nibble from a buyer are supposed to bury the statues near the “for sale” sign in the front yard, head down, “feet toward heaven,” he says.
...
Mr. Cates, who operates out of a modest suite of offices in a downtown Modesto building that house his Service 1st Lending office, says business, at least the statue selling business, is booming...Mr. Cates says he is now “the largest seller of St. Joseph statues in the country.”...“It’s kind of my hedge bet for the mortgage industry, I would say,” he says.

From the LA Times:

Home-mortgage specialists may have been the first lenders to suffer for their roles in financing the housing bubble. But, as foreclosures rise and home prices fall, many smaller banks and thrifts that backed residential developers and home builders are watching black ink turn red and are spending uncomfortable amounts of time with regulators.
...
Residential construction loans, which generate big fees, were especially profitable for smaller banks -- until housing collapsed in places like the Inland Empire, where prices are down more than 30% from their highs, and the Central Valley, where some former boom markets are off more than 40%.
...
According to data tracker Foresight Analytics of Oakland, 15.8% of single-family home construction loans were at least 30 days delinquent in Riverside and San Bernardino counties last quarter, up from just 1.7% a year earlier. The delinquency rate was 14.7% in Los Angeles County, 14.9% in Orange County and 15.4% in Ventura County. It was 30.4% in Merced County, near Sacramento.

From the Modesto Bee:

The Modesto Bee is cutting 15 jobs, or 4 percent of its work force...and The Fresno Bee, 44 people, or 7 percent of its staff.

From the Star-Ledger:

The second quarter of the year fared no better than the first, as the nation's commercial real estate market continued its downward trend, according to the latest PricewaterhouseCoopers Korpacz Real Estate Investor Survey...Transactions involving significant office, apartment and retail properties plunged at least 79 percent in April compared with a year earlier, the report states, while industrial sales fell the least, 67 percent.
...
According to the survey, the office market in cities including San Francisco, Philadelphia and Fort Lauderdale, Fla., are in contraction. Other Florida cities, including Miami, Tampa and Jacksonville, are also declining, as are San Diego and Sacramento, Calif.

Sacramento Home Price Per Square Foot Plunges Past -30% YoY

According to TrendGraphix's March report, Sacramento County's average price per square foot fell to $156, a 31.3% drop from one year ago.




Since peaking in September 2005, prices have dropped 38.6%.

Sacramento Real Estate Market Statistics - March 2008 - SAR

The Sacramento Association of Realtors (SAR) has published real estate market statistics for March 2008. The full report is here.

The median price of single-family homes in Sacramento County/West Sacramento fell 27.2% from last year.



Sacramento's median home price is now 35.1% off its August 2005 peak.



Here's a look at the median price since 2001.





March marked the second month in which sales exceeded prior year levels. Sales were up 4.6% versus March 2007.



The following graphs show the number of sales since 2001.

Sacramento Median Asking Price Statistics - March 2008

According to Housing Tracker, March's median asking price fell nearly 30% year-over-year.




Since August 2005, the median has declined 37.5%.



More price measurements: Sacramento Price Watch

Sacramento Real Estate Market - February 2008 Statistics

Change in median asking price (year-over-year): -27.9%



Change in median asking price (since August 2005): -35.2%
Source: Housing Tracker

AgentBubble has posted some numbers for February over at the Sacramento Real Estate Statistics blog. Year-over-year change:

• Sales: -14.7%
• Median $: -26.3%
• Median $/SF: -29.5%
• Average $/SF: -28.9%
• Average $: -29.2%

From Reuters:

"Price declines are spreading and accelerating," Radar Logic, a data and analytics business based in New York, said in a news release. "December 2007 brought to a close a year in which the housing bubble burst."
...
The nine markets with double-digit losses compares with six such markets in November...Sacramento had the biggest drop, at 23.7 percent, followed by 21 percent for Las Vegas.

More from Radar Logic's press release [pdf]:

Five cities show recent increases in volume that could foreshadow a closing of the bid-ask spread and possibly the beginning of the recovery. These five cities are Boston, Cleveland, Detroit, Sacramento, and San Diego.

Sacramento and San Diego…are prime examples of speculative markets that rode the housing bubble to great heights. They are also two of the markets that have fallen the furthest, ranking 22 and 25 on this month’s chart of year-over-year appreciation, and having been in the bottom half since April 2005. The increase in volume that these five cities are experiencing could indicate that a correction may have occurred and the bottom may be in sight.

More from Business Week's Hot Property blog:

If you’re selling a home in any of these markets, don’t get too excited. [Radar Logic's Jonathan] Miller says that if he’s right, home prices in these cities would only start stabilizing in about 15 months.

From the Modesto Bee:

Two Stanislaus County irrigation districts are caught in the same national credit crisis that's driving up interest rates on Modesto bonds. Rates doubled in the past month on some Modesto Irrigation District and Turlock Irrigation District bonds, costing the agencies hundreds of thousands of dollars...The districts and the city issued the bonds through auction-rate securities that until the past month offered government agencies lower interest rates than traditional, fixed-rate bonds. But as the market for auction-rate bonds has softened, the interest rates have skyrocketed.
...
"This is not a reflection on the MID's financial health or the MID's creditworthiness," [MID spokeswoman Kate Hora]...said. "It's just a reflection of the crazy conditions in the housing market and the mortgage market.

12-Month Price Drop Exceeds Entire 1990s Decline

It's been a while since I last posted charts based on data from the Sacramento Association of Realtors (SAR). Here's a look at January's price and sales trends for single-family homes in Sacramento County and West Sacramento. Click the charts to enlarge. To compare to other price indexes, click here.

Sacramento's median home price declined an astounding 28.2% over a 12-month period, the sharpest drop on record. That compares to a 24.1% decline over the 6-year 1990s housing bust. January marked the 19th consecutive month of year-over-year percentage declines and the 6th month of double-digit declines.



The total decline since peak breached the 30% barrier for the first time, falling 35.1%.



Like DataQuick, the SAR's median price dropped to 2003 levels (in this case November 2003).





The number of escrows closed in January declined by 1.6% compared to last January. This marked the first single-digit percentage drop since August 2005. Sales have dropped on a year-over-year basis for 32 consecutive months.



Here's a look at sales since 2001.

Median Asking Price Falls Nearly 25% YoY

Median asking price year-over-year change: -24.8% ($89,000)


Median asking price change since August 2005: -32.5% ($129,900)

For more Sacramento price statistics go here.

'Piece of Cake' Housing Downturn Exceeds 90s 'Depression'

They said it wouldn't happen, but it just did.

The decline in Sacramento home prices has surpassed the total decline of the 1990s housing bust. According to the Sacramento Association of Realtors, the December median home price fell to $280,000, a drop of 28.7% from its August 2005 peak of $392,750. That compares to a 24.1% drop between July 1990 and December 1996.



Much of the collapse in Sacramento home prices has occurred over the last year, with the median price plunging 21.1% since last December. It is the first time during this housing bust (and quite possibly the first time in Sacramento's modern history), that the median sale price for existing single family homes decreased by more than 20% year-over-year.

Asking Price Breaks -20% YoY Threshold; Down 30% Since Aug 2005

Housing Tracker: Median Asking Price Drops 19.2%

Source: Housing Tracker

Sacramento Home Price Plunge Largest in 30 Years

Home prices in the Sacramento region fell by the largest amount on record, according to a report [pdf] released today by the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight. Sacramento's House Price Index (HPI) dropped 8.41% in the third quarter, the largest year-over-year decline since 1977, the year the government started tracking home appreciation for the Sacramento real estate market.

Top 5 year-over-year price declines since 1977:

2007 Q3: -8.41%
1983 Q3: -7.80%
1994 Q4: -6.67%
1995 Q1: -6.45%
1994 Q3: -6.24%

In the third quarter, the Sacramento real estate market ranked tenth weakest in the nation (out of 287 markets). Nearby Central Valley cities dominated the bottom 10 list, with Modesto at #8, Stockton at #5, Yuba City at #4, and Merced at #1.

Since peaking in 2005, Sacramento's HPI has dropped 10.1% [csv]. Prices have continued to fall at a more rapid pace than the housing bust of the 1990s. At this stage in the 90s bust, Sacramento's HPI had declined 5.3%.

From the Sacramento Business Journal:

In Greater Sacramento, home sales fell 30 percent compared the the previous year, but were up 9 percent from September. The median price of a single-family detached home in Sacramento in October was $309,260, 15 percent less than October 2006 and 5 percent less than in September 2007...according to a report from the California Association of Realtors.

From Bloomberg:

Inland California cities had six of the top 10 foreclosure rates among U.S. metro areas, RealtyTrac said. Merced in the state's Central Valley had the highest, with one filing for every 82 households, almost seven times the national average. Stockton and Modesto ranked second and third, respectively, and Riverside-San Bernardino and Vallejo-Fairfield were sixth and seventh. Sacramento ranked ninth.

From the Sacramento Bee:

By canceling a major office project in Sacramento this week, state officials sent the region a chilling holiday message: Don't look to us to bail out the economy.

Until lately, state government has been one of the bright spots in a community humbled by the housing slump. Since October 2006, the state has accounted for nearly half of Sacramento's job growth. The 400,000-square-foot CalSTRS headquarters being built in West Sacramento is one of the area's biggest construction projects.

But on Monday the Department of General Services scrubbed a proposed $520 million headquarters building for the Resources Agency. The project, approximately three times as large as the CalSTRS tower, was to be built somewhere within three miles of the Capitol and would have been one of the largest state office projects ever. The decision brought home the severity of the state's budget mess – itself a product of the worsening real estate downturn – and raised the possibility of further problems for Sacramento, home to nearly one-fourth of the state's workers.
...
Now the state appears to be lowering its profile in Sacramento real estate. Having requested bids from developers for the Resources building in August, the state announced Monday it couldn't proceed with "a project of this magnitude during this period of financial uncertainty."

Acceleration: Sacramento's Median Asking Price Plunges 18.8% YoY

[Update: added graphs]

Housing Tracker, median asking price: $300,000

Change from last year: -18.8% [-$69,500]



Change from Aug '05: -25.0% [-$99,900]


Compare to other price measurements here.

From the Appeal Democrat:

A real estate information service says that more houses started slipping into foreclosure last quarter statewide. For Yuba-Sutter, it’s a possible indicator that more people may lose their homes. According to figures released last week by DataQuick Information Systems, Yuba, Sutter and Colusa counties showed default-notice increases above 100 percent, with Yuba County experiencing a 244 percent jump, from 66 to 227.
...
Andrew LePage, a DataQuick analyst, said there’s no sign that the foreclosure problems are turning the corner, especially when combined with a slow housing market and a homebuyers’ credit crunch. “If the notices of default are still climbing, you can bet more people will lose their homes to foreclosure,” said LePage.

From the Redding Record-Searchlight:

Homes lost to foreclosure in Shasta County increased 562 percent — from 37 to 245 — in the first three quarters of 2007 from a year ago, county records show. And it could get worse before it gets better. Rates on some 2 million adjustable rate mortgages nationwide are scheduled to reset by the end of next year.
...
Homeowners facing the possibility of foreclosure now need to act quickly, at least one expert said Wednesday. “If you have any equity, you should sell your house and downsize before you lose it to foreclosure,” said Alexis McGee, co-founder and president of Foreclosures.com, a Sacramento database that tracks foreclosure activity nationwide.
...
“I think it’s a typical down cycle, but I think it’s relative to the last up cycle,” Van Bockern [who conducts public foreclosure auctions] said of the market. “Houses appreciated much faster, so just the opposite is going to happen. It will cut farther and deeper.”

Realty Trac foreclosure map

From the Modesto Bee:

Whoever takes the open Modesto City Council seats up for grabs in Tuesday's election won't be labeled a developer's puppet -- at least not because of any conspicuous campaign contributions. For the most part, builders are staying on the sidelines for this election, campaign finance records show.

A couple of factors likely are keeping development money out of the races, candidates and builders say. Among them:

A shortage of candidates created a field that doesn't rely on much campaign money, and that doesn't encourage people to contribute to a race.

A severe downturn in the housing market left deep-pocketed developers with tight political budgets.

Growth isn't the top issue of the political season for the first time in recent memory.

"Uninspiring races, slow time for housing, probably all of the above," said Steve Madison, executive director of the Central California Building Industry Association.

That's a shift from last year, when developers contributed more than $100,000 to races for seats on the Stanislaus County Board of Supervisors.
...
"The presence of developers never goes away," [candidate Robert] Farrace said. "They have an interest and they have a right to participate in community activity as well. The thing right now is, the growth issue is less of an issue because the market is in the tank."

Another Price Milestone: Price Per Square Foot Breeches the -20% Threshold

According to TrendGraphix's latest report [pdf], the average price paid per square foot in Sacramento County dropped to $203 in September, a 20.1% decrease from its peak in September 2005.



Here's a look at MLS inventory in the Sacramento (4-county) region. Inventory continues to expand on a year-over-year basis, according to TrendGraphix figures provided by the Sacramento Bee.

Sacramento Real Estate Market Charts - September 2007

Data source: Sacramento Association of Realtors