NY Times: Signs of Recovery in Sacramento's Housing Market

From the New York Times:

Is this what a bottom looks like? This city was among the first in the nation to fall victim to the real estate collapse. Now it seems to be in the earliest stages of a recovery, a hopeful sign for an economy mired in trouble and anxiety.

The Times cites increased sales to investors and first-time buyers, reduced inventory, and stabilizing prices as signs of recovery.

“It’s fragile, and it could easily be fleeting,” said an MDA DataQuick analyst, Andrew LePage. “But history suggests this is how things might look six months before prices bottom out.”...No one in Sacramento is predicting that local housing prices, which have been cut in half from their mid-2005 peak, are going to reclaim much of that ground anytime soon. Instead, this is what passes for wild-eyed optimism: a belief that things have finally stopped getting worse. “A period of price stagnation would boost a lot of spirits,” Mr. LePage said.
...
“[Upcoming wave of foreclosures]...will stall any progress toward stability,” said Michael Lyon, chief executive of Lyon Real Estate. “The prospects for a recovery are fool’s gold.” Mr. Lyon expects further price declines and slowing sales. But David Berson, the chief economist for the mortgage insurer PMI, argues that such bleakness from the people whose livelihood is selling houses is itself a positive sign. “Things are awful at the bottom, and we’re at the bottom,” Mr. Berson said. “No question about it. But the trend going forward should be higher sales, and that will eventually affect prices.”

Have we hit bottom? Please vote in the poll on the right. Add your opinion in the comments below.

From the Sacramento Bee:

Nearly four years into California's housing downturn, close to 24,000 Sacramento-area homes and apartments are vacant, a number that climbed 40 percent in the past year, according to a Bee analysis of federal data. Roughly a third, or about 7,200, of the six-county region's vacant homes have been empty longer than a year. About 3,500 have been empty longer than two years.
...
Reasons vary for the surge of vacant dwellings. Area real estate agents and others Monday cited recent foreclosure moratoriums and banks increasingly sitting on large numbers of repossessed homes. Apartment communities also report rising vacancies as 11.3 percent regional unemployment forces renters to double up or move back in with family members.

Ryan Jessup: Sacramento Bee's Latest Housing Bubble "Victim"

One of the most disappointing aspects of the media's coverage since the housing bubble burst (besides the blind reliance on "expert" opinion), has been the parade of so-called victims. Is it just me, or has the media struggled mightily in its search for legitimate causalities of the housing bubble fiasco? Are they looking in the wrong places? Is it simply that there is not enough genuine victims?

I pondered these questions as I read an article by Jim Wasserman in Sunday's Sacramento Bee. Among others, the story profiles a man by the name of Ryan Jessup, who "walked away" from his Oak Park house (this site says it was a short sale).

[M]any who can afford their payments have decided it's no longer worth it. They walk, or, as is becoming the trend, park rent-free in the house for months until they get the boot.

It's a question that Ryan Jessup of Sacramento answered a year ago, when he, too, sensed the financial game had turned against him. Early in 2008, the software engineer stopped making payments on his Victorian house in Oak Park. A long habit of playing by the rules, he said, had provided him a good income, a credit score of 804 and a lovely $430,000 house. But when playing by the rules meant riding down the housing market to who knows where, he said, "It came down to morals or survival. I chose survival. It made no sense to stay."
...
Many borrowers like Clawson and Jessup no longer feel so obligated to a financial system they believe overstimulated the housing market, sold them questionable loan products, sometimes by fraud, and then didn't provide help they need in the face of falling home values.
...
Jessup walked away. "I haven't even looked (at the credit score)," he said. "It's like being hit by a train or a bus."
...
Jessup, looking back, has no regrets. He lives with a friend now who has also stopped making payments on a condo bought at the peak of the market in 2005.

What Mr. Wasserman didn't say in the article is that apparently Ryan Jessup has quite the history of touting the virtues of Sacramento real estate in comments at sacbee.com. As the name sounded familiar, I dug through Sacramento Land(ing)'s "save for future use" folder and ran across some quotes by a sacbee.com commenter named "rjessup2mouse." Could rjessup2mouse be Ryan Jessup?

I started to read the article's comments and sure enough, rjessup2mouse, purporting to be Ryan Jessup quickly chimed in on his own story:

rjessup2mouse wrote on 03/08/2009 06:47:04 AM:

Good article Jim - this is a very hotly debated topic right now and weighing on alot of peoples minds. yes the house was actually in a nice neighborhood. Not all of Oak Park is bad... I was extremely choosy of where I bought and wanted to be closer to downtown as I figured the value would hold up better. It did but still fell enough for me to leave. I did not think it would increase in price when I bought it. I am sure alot of people on this board are going to be angry - I figured as much - I am not happy with the way it turned out and I lost alot of $$$ on it. But to me it was better to lose alot then to lose it all (and keep losing). One of the reasons I chose to be a part of the article was for the people who were not speculators or anyone who thought the market would go up forever. Just for normal people who had always played by the rules and then the game changed. Each situation is different and deciding to miss that first payment is a tough one.

Assuming that rjessup2mouse really is Ryan Jessup, let's take a look at how Jessup got to the point of parting with his own bit of Sacramento real estate. Below are some excerpts from comments made by Ryan Jessup over the last few years. Jessup's arguments (and tone) nicely encapsulate the mindset of many, whether "experts" or not, in the face of the housing bubble's implosion.

For those who choose not to wade through the excerpts, here is a summary of Ryan Jessup's assertions over the years:

(1.) Employment is strong
(2.) Population growth is strong
(3.) Home prices will not crash
(4.) It's all about affording the monthly payment
(5.) State government is strong
(6.) The sky is not falling
(7.) This will not be like the .com implosion
(8.) There are a lot of buyers out there (especially in my neighborhood)
(9.) My neighborhood is special/great/different [see green highlights below]
(10.) The economy is strong
(11.) Those who did not buy "missed the boat"
(12.) Real estate is not the stock market
(13.) Real estate is not wildly unaffordable
(14.) People have made millions on real estate
(15.) Construction employment is still going strong
(16.) My industry sources say things are good
(17.) This is nothing like the 1990s (as in not as bad).
(18.) The bottom is near
(19.) Good areas (i.e. where I live) are doing fine
(20.) The worst is behind us
(21.) I bought in 200x, I will be fine
(22.) Subprime will have little impact
(23.) The Bay Area will save us...

Now on to the excerpts. Let's start out with Ryan Jessup's take on the Sacramento Bee's ill-conceived 'No Panic' piece, which was published just as home prices were going negative (yoy).

rjessup2mouse at 7:28 AM PST Tuesday, June 20, 2006 wrote:

To a lot of negative folks - the market will be ok

There are people who write comments in these sections that would LOVE to see housing fall down. So you come up with your doomsday scenarios and facts to support your own theories. Sorry - this article is one of the better ones around. Solid job and population growth in Sacramento will keep from a market crash. Sorry for all you "experts" out there who need to bash the bee and think the market is 53% overvalued. If prices drop 53% here I will buy 20 of them..... I do believe prices will drop a little more and then basically become stagnation for a long time. People who own should not expect appreciation for 5 years at least. Homeowners - just ride out the current downtrend by staying in your house. Homebuyers - maybe wait a couple of months. Or find a homeowner who is panicking and get a bargain.

According to DataQuick, the total home price decline exceeded 53% back in December. Funny, I don't remember any recent reports of software engineers buying 20 homes at a time. Also note Jessup's advice for homeowners to ride out the downturn.

rjessup2mouse at 9:24 AM PST Thursday, June 22, 2006 wrote:

...I also agree there seems to be alot of negativity. Those generally come from people with a vested interest in seeing the market fall. Everyone tried to talk me out of buying in 2002 - saying that it was better to rent and the sky will fall. All I can say is I know a TON of friends that sure hate renting and I am sure glad I didn't listen to the naysayers. It really all comes down to the monthly payment and can you afford it...If you are in the house for the long haul - you will be fine if you lock in a good rate and price isn't as important...


rjessup2mouse at 2:45 PM PST Wednesday, June 28, 2006 wrote:

Prices will fall some but they won't crash
But I am suprised that there is a 42% chance that they won't decline. Prices will decline some but won't crash as incomes need to catch up. The State of California is Sacramento's main employer and the state is in hiring mode and doing well. There seems to be quite a few positions open.


rjessup2mouse at 9:13 AM PST Thursday, June 29, 2006 wrote:

...Prices will fall a little and then stagnate for a long while. There seems to be a vicious negative tone to the people who have an interest in the market and sky falling. I think you will see a pretty large difference in the .com drop and a housing drop. Wether you have money or not - there are people (alot) that have $ to buy houses and the region is not short of buyers . Plus the economy here is strong. People are simply waiting to see if they can get a better deal by holding off some. This combined with homeowners panicking to get the the best price now before any drop - that is why you see so many homes on the market. Prices have gotten high but they won't fall overnight (like stocks) and won't change much on even a yearly basis. I think the largest correction might happen in the next 3 months. Like I have said before - buyers - wait a little to get a better deal - homeowners - don't panic and remember why you bought your house (to live in) and ride out the real estate game in sac.


rjessup2mouse at 7:57 AM PST Wednesday, July 12, 2006 wrote:

I agree prices are falling - I never said anything otherwise. I just don't believe the extreme view of the market falling apart. Extreme views rarely happen and are more based on theories and in cases such as this thread - hopes of someone who has a vested interest. Alot of people want to focus on the negative and ignore positive. There are too many things in Sacramento's favor for housing to fall apart. I totally agree a price correction is currently happening. I think a 8-10% correction is in order, then basically very little or no appreciation for roughly 5 years.


rjessup2mouse at 1:25 PM PST Tuesday, July 18, 2006 wrote:

markets are dictated by emotion coupled with supply and demand.I think there will be some more slight drops followed by some large stagnation. Can't wait to see all "the sky is falling" comments in this thread shortly.


rjessup2mouse at 10:10 PM PST Wednesday, August 2, 2006 wrote:

no the sky is not falling but there are going to be bouts of depreciation and people that have a difficult time. Sacramento will be ok. People who are looking for massive depreceation are in for a very slow letdown...


rjessup2mouse at 5:01 PM PST Thursday, August 3, 2006 wrote:

jobs are very healthy and growing in sacramento right now. Be thankful as that does have the biggest impact and is a massive cushion against the sky is falling folks...


rjessup2mouse at 8:24 PM PST Wednesday, August 16, 2006 wrote:

people who are waiting for a crash are in for a slow dissappointment. Prices will probably fall a little more and then hold steady for awhile. The regional economy is too strong for a crash. In fact I have seen alot of Pending Sales in my area (East Sac) because some folks are swooping in to pick up $10-20k price drops...


rjessup2mouse at 7:34 AM PST Thursday, August 17, 2006 wrote:

NoNewArena sounds like a reasonable voice


rjessup2mouse at 9:15 AM PST Thursday, August 17, 2006 wrote:

The people who want housing prices to crash are people who have an agenda. So they try and add fuel to the fire and get joyful of a families demise, just be glad you are not them. There is alot of jealousy over missing the boat and not making $ while others made a lot of money. yeah - prices may fall a little - it isn't going to crash - and the local economy is strong - and mortgage rates are falling. There are alot of buffers. I am already seeing some Pending sales in my neighborhood finally. Buyers wanted to see 10k -20k price drops. People seem to forget there are alot of buyers. And simple math - owning your own home over the long run saves $$. It seems as if its a big game/stock market right now. When prices do a hit a bottom - I bet they spring back up pretty good as people pull inventory out because their houses are making money again and buyers pent up demand comes in pretty quickly.


rjessup2mouse at 12:59 PM PST Thursday, August 17, 2006 wrote:

Be funny when the price bottom hits to see how fast the mentality turns again. Sacramento housing will not fall 25% - thats too steep a decline with so many buyers out there.


rjessup2mouse at 9:05 AM PST Friday, August 18, 2006 wrote:

No the market will not tank - sorry for people who want it too its simple math. what you would be paying for rent principle tax write off = Sacramento is not as overpriced as you would think. sorry andersb - the local economy does matter and the housing market is NOT the stock market. They are both assets but they ACT VERY DIFFERENT. People need to realize that the underlying factors that make them different but I will let you figure that out yourself. I am blown away by the hositlity of people on these postings with their number twisting to try and persuade that the housing market is going to fall 50%. Yes - the market is dropping right now and may drop a little more. But I bet it won't even drop 10% more. But there are alot more factors than simple hope it tanks so you can make a buck by getting a cheaper house. Seems some areas are already starting to rebound (midtown, east sac and med center area)...There are A LOT of buyers out there.


rjessup2mouse at 11:48 AM PST Friday, August 18, 2006 wrote:

...There are too many good things about Sacramento for the market to tfall alot. People have been saying the Bay Area is totally unafforadable and overpriced for about 25 years. that doesn't mean that it was going to drop. Just because some people don't have money - doesn't mean it isn't out there. Don't get me wrong - I probably will not buy in the next 2-3 months or so to see what happens. The market is not good- except maybe closer to downtown - that seems to be showing some suprising strength the last couple of months as prices dropped some and inventory is lower.

rjessup2mouse at 12:43 PM PST Friday, August 18, 2006 wrote:

...People have made MILLIONS on real estate. I don't believe i know ANY wealthy renters but I know a TON of wealthy homeowners...


rjessup2mouse at 8:38 AM PST Thursday, August 31, 2006 wrote:

...Currently I don't believe prices are really that much higher than they should be. I am sure alot of people would disagree with that and probably about 90% of folks on this forum(most people on this forum have a vested interest in wanting prices to come down)...I believe housing will fall maybe a little more and then hold steady for a long time. Just my personal opinion but my track record for being correct has made a lot of $ for people.


rjessup2mouse at 8:46 AM PST Thursday, August 31, 2006 wrote:

I see you are a doomsdayer. Yes - even though the state is adding many jobs and employment is very strong in sacramento its going to all fall apart because....housing employment is down? ummm hate to tell you that construction employment is doing REALLY well right now. All of my construction sources say there is more work then they have folks right now. And comparing the 90's bust to today is comparing apples and oranges. But these housing forums are full of it. Some people on these forums need to get up in the morning and drink a little reality.


rjessup2mouse at 9:25 AM PST Wednesday, September 20, 2006 wrote:

Home prices are close to bottom...Some really good deals are out there. Good areas seem to be closer to downtown...


rjessup2mouse at 12:07 PM PST Sunday, September 24, 2006 wrote:

Thinking a 40% decline huh? your in for a big let down. And heck - that 40% you said was modest. why not bottom at 75%?? you should be able to pick up a 2000 sq foot for around $150k soon right? if you wait long enought maybe at $125k? Some people are absolutely nuts - how do you possibly think it could decline by that? how?


rjessup2mouse at 7:32 AM PST Sunday, October 1, 2006 wrote:

East Sac, Med Center, Midtown and Land Park have been selling alot lately. Closer to downtown seems to have gotten hot(relativly) in the last month and a half actually.


rjessup2mouse at 11:00 AM PST Wednesday, October 18, 2006 wrote:

...I disagree that prices will drop much further though...I think prices by far have gone through the worst of it now.


rjessup2mouse at 7:23 AM PST Thursday, October 19, 2006 wrote:

...and no - I bought in 2002 - I am fine...


rjessup2mouse at 8:57 AM PST Saturday, December 16, 2006 wrote:

...[Y]ou paint a pretty bleak picture of downtown. I think there are plenty of beautiful areas in downtown, east sac , med center and such.


rjessup2mouse at 7:41 AM PST Friday, December 22, 2006 wrote:

Have to completely disagree with Mr.Lyon's assessment on 10% decline for sacramento. Most "experts" predict 3.5%. His is by far the biggesst drop prediction I have read about. This last year seems to have come in about 8.2%. I thought it would have been 10% this last year so it was almost 2% better than i even expected. So is Mr. Lyon saying that this year should be worse than last? Why is he the only one saying this?


rjessup2mouse at 10:25 AM PST Friday, December 22, 2006 wrote:

I have no number crunching but I would have to say that I predicted a 10% drop for the year last year (I was off by 2% )and I will predict a 3-4% drop this year. But I am no expert - I just listen to people who are in the industry and what they see happening.


rjessup2mouse at 9:07 AM PST Sunday, December 31, 2006 wrote:

...Smart money right now is saying that sac is going to do 0 to -3% for the year....


rjessup2mouse at 1:08 PM PST Friday, January 5, 2007 wrote:

people are so negative that have an agenda or a vested interest. The bee has covered stories that make housing look bad and they cover stories that make housing look good. Are you some of the same folks that said it would be down 20% this last year? I remember those predictions a year ago. Looks like Sac was down 8.2%. Some areas in Sac were worse than that and some areas less. But just hoping/waiting for the bottom to fall out is not going to make it happen. California Real Estate is and always will be a good investment long term. The worst is over. That doesn't mean it is bottom but I believe by far the worst is behind.


rjessup2mouse at 10:01 AM PST Wednesday, January 17, 2007 wrote:

Oak Park is changing and I have seen investor interest in it. Next to it - The med center area - is a really good place to have a home and rather safe. Remember - not all of Oak Park is considered "bad".


rjessup2mouse at 8:22 AM PST Wednesday, March 14, 2007 wrote:

...I am not to worried about the subprime headlines of right now. It will have some impact I am sure but not much. Just like everyone was saying the housing market would already be down 35%...


rjessup2mouse at 8:41 PM PST Wednesday, April 4, 2007 wrote:

I think Med center area is already pretty nice.


rjessup2mouse at 1:02 PM PST Thursday, April 5, 2007 wrote:

kindof what I have been saying - Dowtown and Midtown are solid
the suburbs and sub divisions have taken a large hit while closer to downtown has been fairly steady. The houses closer to downtown are bouncing back quicker because people are realizing that you can't make these homes anymore and therefore have good price stability. There will only be less - never more of these homes.


rjessup2mouse at 8:20 AM PST Friday, April 13, 2007 wrote:

funny to see the gloomers again :-) - always makes me chuckle to see the 40% drop again predicted/wanted by home buyers. I am sorry for the doom and gloomers - your not going to get anywhere near that price drop. Not even close. Housing I think is going to take a small hit again - with negative publicity being the bigger culprit than what will actually shake out with the subprime situation. People tend to forget that we are tied to the bay area home prices and that the local job market is plenty strong. I am no real estate agent or optimist - just a realist. For the past few years my predictions have been pretty close - and i would predict possibly another 2-4% drop...


rjessup2mouse at 12:53 PM PST Friday, April 13, 2007 wrote:

...my finances are fine are yours? do you own a house or have you ever? I didn't think so. WIll you? and do the math - its not that tricky - fairly simple actually. As far as predictions - I am sorry to say that it has been fairly accurate. I do appreciate how emotional you are over it - I believe you probably one of the "its going to drop by about 30%" correct? Makes me laugh.


rjessup2mouse at 12:59 PM PST Friday, April 13, 2007 wrote:

isn't it funny? I have been seeing these posts for 2 years now - the predictions by most of the gloomers have been that the market would have dropped 25% as of now. It has not. I think I said 7 - 15% from the start.

I find the final two comments, made in January 2008, particularly interesting given that Jessup purportedly stopped paying his Oak Park mortgage in early 2008.

rjessup2mouse at 11:33 AM PST Friday, January 18, 2008 wrote:

a little advice - the really good deals
If you want a bargain and something thats gonna retain its value. Buy where a bunch of houses are NOT for sale and try and scoop up a bank repo. Some downtown and surrounding areas have it- just gotta find the right pockets of places.

0 out of 3 people found this comment helpful.


rjessup2mouse at 1:46 PM PST Saturday, January 19, 2008 wrote:

time to buy or at least look pretty hard
you folks that are sitting should be looking right now.

1 out of 5 people found this comment helpful.

Land(ing) in the Sacramento Bee

Today, the Sacramento Bee mentioned this blog for the first time.

[A] prominent real estate blog, Sacramento Land(ing), which has chronicled the housing bust for three years, has announced it is scaling back "due to time constraints."

Some loyal Land(ing) readers are seeing the pullback – and departure of other housing bubble bloggers – as a sign that most of the collapse has happened now and the bottom is approaching. Land(ing)'s author – whose identity is not known – was defiantly a bear when most in the real estate industry were bulls. He recently counseled his audience, "The story is not over yet. The 'landing' is still in progress."

LOL! I guess I should scale back more often ;)

'Who would have thought?'

From the Sacramento Bee:

Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger will send layoff warnings to at least 20,000 state workers Friday unless he reaches a budget agreement with legislative leaders that precludes the need for such cuts, his office announced Tuesday. The Republican governor intends to eliminate 10,000 full-time positions from the state's general fund, either by job cuts, attrition or transfer to positions funded by special revenue streams, according to Schwarzenegger spokesman Aaron McLear.
...
Jason Dickerson, a budget analyst at the nonpartisan Legislative Analyst's Office, said the state has never laid off 10,000 workers before. "It might be possible to lay off 1,000 to 2,000 people, but laying off 10,000 or more employees would be next to impossible without gutting core services," Dickerson said.

From the Sacramento Bee:

Executives at the two local banks that have received shots of federal capital say the money isn't likely to spur much new lending, at least until the economy begins to recover. "It's that old economic spiral thing. … It's really difficult in this environment to find loans that we can underwrite," said Mark Lund, president and chief executive at Auburn-based Community 1st Bank. Last month, the bank received a $2.55 million investment as part of the government's Troubled Asset Relief Program.

From the Sacramento Bee:

Andrea Hawkins, 31, said she was doing well financially, running a mortgage business out of her Elk Grove home until the housing downturn. Now she's struggling to pay her own mortgage each month. "It's scary trying to make ends meet," she said...Now the single mother of four has joined the ranks of those needing assistance.
...
Blake Young, director of Sacramento Food Bank & Family Services,...said his organization served 25 percent more people in 2008 than 2007. Many are larger family groups from the same address. "People are finding it necessary to combine households to make ends meet," he said.

From LA Land:

[L]ooking ahead, the Zillow survey found a surprisingly sunny outlook. Fully 25% of homeowners in the West thought their home will increase in value within six months. That's up from 14% in the third quarter who had such high hopes for their home.

An update on the squatlord story. From News10:

The neighbors were suspicious but the tenants showed police a lease to prove they belonged. But now, the case of mystery tenants moving into a vacant upscale Natomas house in the Westlake subdivision last week has brought arrest warrants for those tenants and their real estate broker.

More here.

From the Tracy Press:

The sinking housing market has taken down an 18-year-old Tracy business that once employed more than 300 people. Piedmont Lumber and Truss...will issue its last paychecks to its 25 or so employees Thursday....

From the OC Register:

National Association of Realtors’ chief economist Lawrence Yun told an Orange County crowd today that he failed to foresee the depth of the housing crash....“What I found out was there was a credit market bubble that led to a housing market bubble. There was not check and balance in the system,” he said.
...
When the bubbles burst, home prices fell by as much as 45% in Stockton, he said...“Who would have thought a tangible asset would fall 45% in one year?” Yun asked.

Certainly not the NAR!

From the CVBT:

Home prices have plunged three and a half times more in San Joaquin County than the nation as a whole, according to a report Tuesday from Integrated Asset Services LLC....San Joaquin County leads the nation with a 51 percent drop in home values compared to the height of the housing bubble – more than any county in the nation, the report says.

From the Stockton Record:

Stockton resident Jorge A. Aragon is shocked at the ever-sinking house prices, hammered down by a predominantly foreclosures market over the past 21/2 years, but he's not looking to buy. He bought a house in 2002 for $220,000 and another in 2007 for $344,000, and now he's working with two banks to try to get loan modifications that will keep them out of foreclosure. Meanwhile, he can only be amazed as people move into his neighborhood into homes such as his at prices running below $100,000.
...
Jerry Abbott, president and co-owner of Grupe Real Estate of Stockton...thinks prices won't sag further. "We're dragging along the bottom."
...
In Stockton, the median sales price of $125,000 last month is a level not seen since 2001, said John Knight, professor of finance and real estate at University of the Pacific's Eberhardt School of Business. "I cannot envision that prices are going to continue to go down," he said. "I think we're either at or near the bottom for selling prices." Now the rents that investors can get for foreclosure homes covers mortgage payments for these lower-priced houses and then some, he said, and that's why the market is clearing out the listings.

From Seeking Alpha:

Having just returned from Sacramento/Stockton to look at defaulted condominium projects, I can tell you it's a solid mess out there. Investors from all over the Bay Area, and indeed the entire country, are making the same drive across Interstate 80 and descending on more or less the same spots. Unfortunately, the smartest investors will tell you they have no idea when it will end or what their exit strategy is, so not much is getting done on any scale.

The unemployment rate in Sacramento/Stockton is now in double digits (and climbing), and most people will have no choice but to relocate in order to find work. Consequently, there are some projects that will simply need to be bulldozed and plowed under.
...
[F]oreclosures not only create additional supply of "shadow" rentals, but home prices in these hard hit areas will eventually drop (if they haven't already) to levels where it will be much cheaper to buy than to rent.

Moody's Economy.com: Sacramento Real Estate Market to Bottom in Q4 2009

From Home Front:

How many times have we asked this question - where is bottom of this housing market - and seen it pushed farther into the future? One more time today, comes Moody's Economy.com, pushing it out until the fourth quarter of this year for El Dorado, Placer, Sacramento and Yolo counties.

From the Modesto Bee:

"To survive, you have to pare back your expenses, cut down advertising, let your employees go and ride it out," [Joseph] Anfuso [of Florsheim Homes] said. During the past two years, he's reduced his staff from 55 to 11...When housing was hot, Riverbank's Monschein Industries employed 406 people to craft cabinetry and countertops. Now only 72 remain.
...
To stick it out, some builders have drastically slashed prices. When Taylor-Morrison's Carriage Lane project opened the summer of 2007, its 1,127-square-foot model had an advertised base price of $271,990. Now it's just $139,990. That's a nearly 49 percent reduction.
...
[T]he housing slump won't end anytime soon, analysts warn. "The Central Valley is not immune to the slowing national economy and the region's housing market is feeling the effects," said Greg Gross, director of Metrostudy's Central Valley division.

From CBS 13:

Other job seekers expressed frustration at what they see as a growing divide between the instability of the private sector and relative safety of government employment. "The idea that state employees are somehow exempt from feeling the pain -- I find that somewhat ludicrous," said Pat Young of Corona del Mar, a former vice president of real estate developer Pacer Communities who lost his job in 2007. "They're upset because they're being docked two days a month. I think they look rather foolish against a backdrop of people who have lost their jobs entirely."

SacBee: The fastest shrinking job sectors in Sacramento

From News10:

Not bad for a day's work: In a down market, a Sacramento real estate broker made $275,000 buying a bank-owned home in West Sacramento and reselling it the same day. While other real estate professionals were struggling to stay afloat in the worst market in generations, the "flipper" was on a roll. Two months after buying the West Sacramento house, he picked up bank-owned homes in Sacramento and Rio Linda and flipped them both in a matter of weeks for a profit of $358,000.

The secret to his phenomenal success is simple: He's a crook.

'Nothing Left To Trim'

From the Sacramento Business Journal:

Angel Ahumada, founder of recruiting firm Integrity International Partners of Rancho Cordova that recruits professionals for the building industry, said homebuilding companies have pared down staffs and combined offices as much as possible. “I think that 2009 will be a survival year for everyone in the housing market,” he said. “Layoffs are finished and office consolidations are over with — there is nothing left to trim. I heard from one of my senior executive contacts that he sees ‘large storm clouds ahead’ for them.”
...
[Gregory Group's Greg] Paquin admitted he hasn’t been able to accurately call the bottom of the housing market, as housing sales appeared to bottom out at various points during the past two years. “I was joking with some people this morning that it was probably the lowest since there’s been a capital in Sacramento,” he said of the fourth-quarter figures. “That’s probably not true, but the reality is no one’s buying.”

From the Sacramento Bee:

GreenFiber LLC, a manufacturer of natural fiber insulation, on Tuesday closed its plant in Sacramento, citing the decline in the local housing market and decreased demand for its products. The company said the 26 employees working at the plant...received severance pay.

From the Sacramento Bee:

It's approaching crunch time for Circuit City Stores Inc. and Fresno's Gottschalks Inc., two troubled retail chains whose possible demise would add to the miseries of Sacramento's commercial real estate market..."We're going to see more of this," said George Whalin of Retail Management Consultants in San Marcos. "We're just getting started."
...
The region's shopping center vacancy rate, pegged at 8.8 percent in the third quarter of 2008, will probably peak at around 11 percent sometime this fall, said research director Garrick Brown of broker Colliers International's Sacramento office...Rents have fallen by a third in some areas of Sacramento.

From the Sacramento Bee:

J.C. Penney's decision to close its Carmichael call center on March 20 will cost 260 local jobs and put a dent in the Sacramento area's recent reputation as a call-center magnet...At the dawn of the decade, Sacramento was being hailed as a call-center mecca. From 1996 through mid-2001, about 40 centers set up shop in the Sacramento area, according to the Sacramento Area Commerce and Trade Organization.
...
Layne Holley, managing editor of publications with the Colorado Springs, Colo.-based International Customer Management Institute (ICMC), said Monday that call centers are a likely cutting point for retailers amid the recession.

From the Stockton Record:

The median sales price fell to $133,000 in Stockton and $165,000 countywide...In Stockton, that has meant a 47 percent drop in prices in 12 months alone, from $250,000 in December 2007 to $133,000 last month, according to figures from the Grupe Real Estate-TrendGraphix monthly sales report....Foreclosures continue to dominate the existing home market, accounting for 84 percent of all December sales.
...
"Median sales prices may go lower, but they can't go much lower," he [Mike Collins of Collins Realty in Stockton] said. "Some people pay that much for a high-end luxury car."

From the Associated Press (hat tip DJ/SMF)

The number of people leaving California for another state outstripped the number moving in from another state during the year ending on July 1, 2008. California lost a net total of 144,000 people during that period — more than any other state, according to census estimates.
...
Financial adviser Barry Hartz lived in California for 60 years and once ran for state Assembly before relocating with his wife last year to Colorado Springs, Colo., where his son's family had moved. "The saddest thing I saw was the escalation of home prices to the point our kids, when they got married, could not live in the community where they lived and grew up," Hartz says. "Some people call that progress."

From News10:

"It's getting too expensive for us to live here. We just can't afford it," said Cathy Hawkins of Sacramento. The Hawkins are moving from California for an area that's more affordable to live..."We just lost our house to foreclosure and I recently lost my job," said Daniel Hawkins.

Report: Sacramento Headed for Double-Digit Unemployment in 2009

From the Sacramento Bee:

A new forecast says unemployment will hit 10 percent in Sacramento this year [a rate worse than anything from the 1990s recession]. That's the most striking finding from the premiere issue of the Sacramento Business Review....The review also says the Sacramento region can expect to lose 14,500 jobs in the first quarter of 2009 alone. By contrast, the region lost 12,700 jobs in the 12 months ending in November.

From the Sacramento Business Review report [pdf]:

Construction...has become the largest production input in Sacramento since 2000 and hit its peak in 2005. Currently, construction contributes to 56% of Sacramento’s goods production input. We view this larger exposure to real estate as one reason the region was hit particularly hard by the housing collapse, partially offset by the larger exposure to the relatively stable government sector...By the end of 2005 - coinciding with the peak of the residential market - 26% of all jobs in the region were real estate related. Since that time the real estate sector has steadily lost jobs and now represents only 22% of overall employment.
...
While this U.S. recession officially began in December 2007, we believe the Sacramento region felt the economic effects earlier given the region’s large exposure to housing price declines, and the collapse in construction and in real-estate related financing activities. Using unemployment and taxable sales as a gauge, Sacramento was likely in its own local “recession” as early as 2Q07. Given our negative outlook, we would be looking closer to the end of 2009 or early 2010 for a local recovery and job growth to return, but we also believe there is a greater risk that a recovery occurs later than this rather than earlier.
...
While a recovery is at least a year (or two) away, it is likely we will reach or approach the bottom of the [real estate] downturn by the end of 2009. The local residential market is further along in the cycle than most the rest of the country, having already incurred a significant correction in pricing. As such, we expect the Sacramento region to be one of the first markets to recover. However, whether we reach the bottom soon and how long we remain there is dependent on how quickly the credit markets thaw and the depth and duration of the current economic recession.

From Housingpredictor.com:

[I]n the state's capitol of Sacramento, which has been one of the states harshest hit areas, the increase in foreclosure sales is also helping to boost the ailing home market. The real estate crisis is forecast to deflate home values in Sacramento another 15.7% by year's end.

From News10:

City employees in Lincoln are bracing for layoff notices that could come as early as Friday, according to Mayor Spencer Short..."I think everyone saw the slowdown coming but it was just a sudden collapse because of the mortgage crisis and everything else," said Short.

From the SF Chron:

"My policy prescription: Let them get foreclosed on," [economist Christopher Thornberg] said. "The home market is not going to recover, on the building or appreciation side, until two things happen: a) all these people with dodgy mortgages who bought things they couldn't afford get shoved out and b) all those homes get absorbed. The fastest way to do both of those things is to let prices fall."

"An MSM Confession"

From the Sacramento Bee:

Sacramento-area real estate market befuddled the experts

Home Front spent time in the electronic library this week, looking at how experts misjudged the extent of this decline as the housing market began to wobble and shift in 2005 and 2006, even 2007. We aren't trying to pick on analysts who were then swimming in uncharted waters after a long, euphoric boom. The Bee's real estate coverage, too, had its overly sunny moments.
~~~
We feature a lot of real estate experts who misjudged the extent of the downturn - and note that our own coverage was sometimes overly rosy, too, as a result.
...
It had occurred to me a couple times as I researched today's column that there were early people saying we were going over a cliff with this housing boom. They were mostly bloggers and not mainstream "experts," predicting this was a disaster soon to unfold. Therefore, in the process that often leads to these kind of business stories, they seemed to have less weight than someone who sold houses for a living or financed them. (There's an MSM confession for you).

But many of these seers proved correct.

From the Sacramento Bee:

"One bright note is that the (housing) sector that led the economy into this morass is about to turn the corner, perhaps as soon as this summer, and will start to lead us out," said Scott Anderson, senior economist at Wells Fargo & Co.

It's still too early to declare real estate's revival...But 2008 could also be seen as the year Sacramento-area real estate began to show signs of stabilizing, and the idea that housing might help establish a foundation for the economy here is something experts are starting to debate. Prices and inventory are down and sales are up, even as foreclosures continue. Mortgage rates have fallen to their lowest levels in at least 37 years. The correction has been enormously painful, but there are believers who contend Sacramento will be among the first U.S. markets to recover.

From the Sacramento Bee's Bob Shallit:

We anticipate the capital region will endure higher unemployment (perhaps hitting 10 percent), more hard times in housing, a grim market for commercial real estate and perhaps a bank failure or two...Builders and buyers will continue struggling in 2009, but by midyear we see home prices bottoming out, foreclosures dropping and sales picking up, spurred by declining interest rates.

From Rocklin & Roseville Today:

I believe we will start to see some stability in the Sacramento housing market. I am not suggesting that we don’t still have some downward pressure on prices but I think we will see, in some areas and in some price ranges, price stability and even some upward movement. I believe we will see buyer’s who took a wait and see posture in 2008 return to the market. At the same time, if we learned anything from our experiences in 2008, we must be mindful that there are likely to be some additional surprises along the way.

From Home Front:

[In 2008] Dunmore Homes went out of business. Then John Reynen of Reynen & Bardis Communities filed for personal bankruptcy protection. So did C.C. Meyers, owner of Winchester Country Club. And then so did Christo Bardis of R&B. I doubt ever in their wildest imaginings did they imagine it would all some day come to this...Crossing familiar names off my list of real estate industry sources as they disappeared into unemployment. Sacramento County's median price falling back below $200,000. (On the other hand I talked with a lot of happy new homeowners this year. That was the really cool side of the free-falling home prices).

From the Modesto Bee:

The housing slump will enter its fourth year in January, but Chad Costa sees reason for hope. The Modesto real estate agent said plenty of people will benefit from the reduced prices and mortgage rates. "I think what has to be identified here is that the affordability is back," said Costa, who specializes in selling property that has gone through foreclosure. "That's the upside of this, and you don't hear a lot about that."

From the Appeal Democrat:

A huge tide of home foreclosures rippled through the nation in 2008, and few communities were battered as badly as the Mid-Valley. Defaults left hundreds of houses from Yuba City to Linda to Wheatland — built and bought in anticipation of profiting from a decade of soaring real estate prices — empty as owners seduced by adjustable-rate mortgages were caught between suddenly higher payments and plunging values for their homes.

From the Sacramento Business Journal:

Sacramento on Monday announced it has laid off eight workers in the city’s development services department due to falling revenue.

From the Appeal Democrat:

About 70 workers at Kbi Norcal on Rancho Road in south Yuba County are slated to lose their jobs in the next few months, according to an announcement Monday from the lumber and wall panel plant’s parent company, Building Materials Holding Corporation. BMHC executives...have said they will shut down the Rancho Road plant some time during the first quarter of 2009.

From the Sacramento Business Journal:

Grubb & Ellis Co. on Monday released its 2009 global forecast that predicts a troublesome year for commercial real estate in the U.S., including Greater Sacramento. “Several forces contributed to the decrease in Sacramento’s investment market in 2008, primarily the unavailability of credit, and this will linger through the coming year,” said Robert Dean, executive vice president and managing director of Grubb & Ellis’ Sacramento office...“The depth and duration of the local residential recession has virtually assured retail’s struggle,” Dean added.

From the Wall Street Journal:

The commercial market "is going to be ugly for the next 12 to 24 months," said Michael Restuccia, chairman of the San Joaquin County (Calif.) Employees' Retirement Association. "Not just bad, but ugly."

From the Sacramento Bee:

Commercial real estate is in trouble...Brokers such as [Boyd] Cahill are suffering along with their clients. For a while, they were uneasily holding ground while colleagues in residential real estate were seeing their livelihoods melt away as home sales plummeted. Then the bad economy got drastically worse and the commercial business crashed
...
As "the toughest year" of his career closes, Cahill said the first half of 2009 doesn't look much better. He thinks more retailers will file for bankruptcy protection, adding to vacancies and making it even more competitive to land the few tenants looking for space. The shakeout will strike commercial brokerage firms, too, Cahill said. His company just closed its Sacramento office and pulled staff to Roseville.

From the Stockton Record:

Foreclosures continue to dominate the existing home-sales market, making up nearly nine out of 10 purchases...[M]edian home selling prices in the city [of Stockton] dropped as low as $130,000 for November - down more than half from $265,000 the previous November.

Lela Nelson of Lela Nelson Realty said December business was hopping as more first-time buyers and investors jumped into the market as ever-dropping prices combined with historically low mortgage rates. In more than 30 years in the real estate business, she said, she has never seen a better combination of low prices and interest rates for buyers.

From the Stockton Record:

Community Bank of San Joaquin has become only the second locally based bank during the current economic downdraft to receive a warning from state and federal regulators.
...
[P]roblem loans were made before 2007 to builders. In other words, they were made to exactly the kind of borrowers you would expect to be doing business with such a bank, and they were seeking loans when business, especially real estate, was booming...In fairness, no one saw this coming, certainly not the kind of downdraft we've experienced. And with San Joaquin County being the nation's foreclosure capital, the real estate market collapsed here with unprecedented speed and severity.

From the New York Times:

[T]he ultimate symbol of suburban success has become one more reminder of the economic meltdown, with builders going under, pools going to seed and skaters finding a surplus of deserted pools in which to perfect their acrobatic aerials. In these boom times for skaters, Mr. Peacock travels with a gas-powered pump, five-gallon buckets, shovels and a push broom, risking trespassing charges in the pursuit of emptying forlorn pools and turning them into de facto skate parks.
...
California officials estimate that there are tens of thousands of abandoned pools in the state, with as many as 5,000 in places like Sacramento County, where a building boom in the capital’s suburbs has gone bust.

"All the Arrows Were Pointing Down"

From Forbes:

Drive along Interstate 80, just outside the city of Sacramento, Calif., and scores of gated and planned communities await. Only they're not what developers envisioned. Sidewalks are empty; homes are unoccupied. Blame the heady days of the real estate boom. Easy-to-acquire mortgages, plenty of open land and generous zoning provided new homes to scores of buyers. Between 2000 and 2005, Sacramento-area builders doubled production.

But as prices dropped and demand dried up, builders cut back. This year, there are expected to be 6,140 new constructions in the Sacramento metro area. That's down from 20,370 in 2005, according to the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB). Median prices are now $212,000, down from $375,000 in 2005. For many residents, this is old news. Sacramento home builders and buyers engaged in the same behavior leading up to, and following, the Savings & Loan crisis. That's when construction doubled and then quartered once prices fell. Indeed, it's a market prone to booms and busts, which not a good sign for long-term investment.

From the Sacramento Business Journal:

CB [Richard Ellis], Greater Sacramento’s largest commercial real estate brokerage, wanted the market outlook this year to be more of a low-key panel discussion with fewer numbers bandied about. Office chief David Brennan joked that all the arrows were pointing down anyway.
...
CB’s land group...declared that prices for residential land hit bottom late this year — a bottom they weren’t ready to call in 2007 as land buyers and sellers executed very few deals.

The pressure to unload land has become too great as homebuilders sold at deep discounts, at about 25 to 30 cents on the dollar, CB senior vice president Randy Grimsman said. That trend will increase next year, said senior vice president Peter Nixon....About 70 percent of the land deals will be lender repossessions, he predicted.

From the Sacramento Bee:

San Francisco-based regional brokerage TRI Commercial is closing its Sacramento office as of Friday and consolidating local operations in Roseville...In response to our questions, TRI issued a press release calling the closure a "strategic move" based on prospects for diminished revenue next year. The release states that the 12 agents in the Sacramento office will be invited to meet with managers in Roseville, but it doesn't say how many – if any – will be offered jobs.

From the Sacramento Business Journal:

Stunned by a dramatic decline in loan applications and a frozen secondary market for small-business lending, Comerica Bank trimmed its operations, including a processing and sales center in Sacramento. The banking giant eliminated 64 jobs nationwide, including 10 in the Sacramento region.
...
Comerica handled 15 loans for a total of $9.1 million for the first nine months of the year in the Sacramento district, a 56 percent decline from the 34 loans for a total of $19.4 million for the same period in 2007. Lenders in the Sacramento SBA district saw loans decline almost 38 percent. Nationally, SBA loan approvals were down 29 percent.

From Business Week:

[Thomas] Lawler [economist and founder, Lawler Economic & Housing Consulting in Vienna, Va.] says he's seen prices begin to stabilize in some places—Sacramento, for one, and even some areas outside hard-hit Las Vegas. He believes that if Congress and President-elect Obama launch a big economic stimulus plan on Day One and homebuilders bring no new inventory onto the market for six months or so, the national housing market could find its bottom by the third quarter of 2009.

From the Average Buyer blog:

Back in late 2006/early 2007 I couldn't find a RE agent (and we looked hard) that would tell me a home was overpriced, nor could I find a broker who would only give me a quote for a 30yr fixed loan (2 other quotes that lowered my monthly payment always seemed to come with it). So its interesting to see how history gets revised.

"New Year Bodes Ill for the Central Valley" Economy

From the Sacramento Real Estate blog:

Prices have fallen yet again...Sacramento county is now at $122.69 a square foot, a drop of 34.3% over last November...Median price has also fallen for the same period - here we see a fall of 40.3% year over year. Median price last November was $293,000 and is currently $175,000.

From Sacramento-based Foreclosures.com:

The nation's foreclosure hemorrhage has finally slowed and 2009 should see a significant decline in foreclosures as buyers return, pushing home prices up and fueling a real estate recovery, according to the 2009 Outlook from ForeclosureS.com....

"Recovery is underway. Affordable is back in the housing market," says Alexis McGee, real estate expert, educator, and president of ForeclosureS.com. "In 2009, housing will not only recover, but we'll see buyers leap into this market in droves, depleting our housing oversupply, and actually put higher price pressures on the market. With 4.5% fixed mortgage rates, housing prices lower than they were 'pre-housing bubble', commodity prices lower, tax credits available for homebuyers, and the government eager to stimulate our economy, for the first time in years I can see prices rising again in 2009," adds McGee.

From the CVBT:

The New Year bodes ill for the Central Valley as the global recession deepens, says a new economic analysis by the University of the Pacific. “While home prices are beginning to find a bottom and real estate sales have surged with low prices, the outlook for the agriculture industry, trade, transportation and other key service sectors have weakened substantially in the past three months,” says the report written by Jeff Michael, director of the Business Forecasting Center at the Eberhardt School of Business at Pacific in Stockton.

From the Sacramento Bee:

Get ready for two years of 9 percent unemployment. California and Sacramento's jobless rate will top 9 percent sometime early next year and won't fall below it until early 2011, according to an economic forecast released Tuesday by the University of the Pacific. The higher unemployment is the obvious result of a deepening recession as the economy moves well beyond the initial job losses in construction and mortgage lending. "We're out of the housing thing and into a pretty severe … traditional structure of a recession," said Jeff Michael, director of UOP's Business Forecasting Center.
...
Michael said the Sacramento area figures to lose 2 percent of its jobs next year, a significant downturn.

From the Modesto Bee:

In preparation for slower times, Pacific Southwest Container of Modesto has laid off an undisclosed number of employees. The container manufacturer...joins a growing list of San Joaquin Valley companies that have scaled back their staffs to reflect slowing business...[A]s consumer confidence wanes and people buy less, there is less need to make and ship the goods that once flew off store shelves.
...
Initially, the decline in the valley housing market triggered job losses in real estate, finance, construction and other, related industries. As the economy continued to slow, the ripple effect has forced other businesses, including The Bee, to trim workers. Jeff Michael said he isn't surprised to hear of Pacific Southwest Container's layoffs. The director of the University of the Pacific's Business Forecasting Center said it is part of a coming wave in the manufacturing sector. Goods that people can put off buying will take a hit, Michael said.

From the Tracy Post:

As a soft housing market and rising food and fuel costs eat away many folks’ disposable income, the ancient art of bartering has become an increasingly common way to get what one wants.
...
Out-of-work Tracy carpenter Donald LaMmond, 42, can’t afford Christmas presents this year for his two daughters, ages 7 and 11, so he’s trading his handyman skills for board games and dolls to put under the Christmas tree. The contractor and his real estate agent wife, Kimberly LaMmond, 39, represent a pairing of two of the hardest-hit professions in today’s economy — definitely a source of stress for the couple, who sold their home 2½ years ago for much less than the loan that paid for it. "We’re both learning how to update our resumes, to get back out there," he said. "And we’ve applied to McDonald’s and Wal-Mart, but it’s hard to get out there — other people want those jobs now, too."

Paquin Predicts Sales Bottom for 2009

From the Stockton Record:

Question: It's been the slowest year yet for home builders. When do you anticipate that the market will hit bottom?

Answer [Gregory Paquin, president, Gregory Group]: It is our expectation that the Central Valley will hit bottom during 2009 and begin to see the signs of recovery in 2010 and 2011, although some areas - Sacramento and some northern Central Valley communities - may experience the recovery sooner than others (some mid- and southern Central Valley communities). Several things will need to happen before the housing recovery can begin: a slowing of foreclosure activity, less fear about job losses, the stabilizing of the overall economy and the easing of credit markets - a swing of the pendulum back to the center.

Related posts:
Paquin Predicts Sales Bottom for 2008
"I'm optimistic we will [reach bottom] in 2007"

Speaking of predictions, Sacramento Bee housing reporter Jim Wasserman invites readers to submit questions to an upcoming Sacramento real estate roundtable, which apparently includes blogger Average Buyer. Kudos to the Bee for making room for an informed consumer's perspective. Knock 'em dead AB! (no pressure or anything)

From the Sacramento Bee:

California's financial troubles have prompted Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger to start talking about state layoffs...At a Los Angeles event last week, Schwarzenegger said the state has to look at all areas of government to close the $11.2 billion funding gap this fiscal year. "I think the longer we wait the more we will have to lay off people from government," he said in response to a question about the state's financial health. "And I think because of the delay now, we are almost, I think, forced – as a matter of fact, we are going to have a meeting … about that, how many people we need now to lay off in order to make ends meet."
...
About 112,000 state workers are employed in the Sacramento region, roughly 10 percent of the work force.

From the Sacramento Bee:

Sacramento, already weakened by one of the nation's highest foreclosure rates, is especially vulnerable. The stumbling state economy has prodded Schwarzenegger to propose that state employees take off one day per month without pay. "What I'm seeing now are state workers who are panicked … who are living paycheck to paycheck and are saying, 'Once I'm forced to take one day off a month I can't make my mortgage payment,' " said Jonathan Stein, an Elk Grove bankruptcy attorney.

From News10:

Sacramento Salvation Army homeless shelter supervisor David Benning...believes they've never had a higher percentage of first-time homeless in the shelter than they do now. The bad economy is likely to blame, as more people face the same crippling hardships. "Foreclosure, generally," says Benning, talking about the reasons people give when looking for shelter. "They lost their job, unemployment benefits have run out."

From the Sacramento Bee:

[B]orrowers rolled up the center's escalators for a massive foreclosure prevention workshop organized by Hope Now...The larger-than-expected crowd at the convention center spoke to the magnitude of problems in the region..."At 7 p.m. we had 1,200 borrowers registered," said Hope Now spokeswoman Katherine McGann. "They're still coming."

From CNBC:

The top U.S. banking regulators said Monday that some of their foreclosure prevention efforts are floundering and that they have no agreed plan for the future, two years into a housing crisis that has dragged the economy into a deep recession. More than half of troubled borrowers face losing their homes even six months after lenders have eased their monthly payments, one regulator said, a discouraging sign for reversing a tide of foreclosures.
~~~
[I]nstead of spending so much time focusing on trying to modify these loans, perhaps we need to look at the problem from a different perspective. How do we transition these borrowers out of homes they can't afford, with as little pain as possible, and in turn give qualified borrowers the incentive to buy up the inventory? Unless the lenders or investors or government officials are willing to simply throw the loan out and give away an awful lot of house to an awful lot of borrowers, modifications, and certainly "mass modifications" which a lot of government types are pushing, are just exacerbating the problem.

From the CVBT:

U.S. Rep. Dennis Cardoza, D-Merced...says the Treasury Department should immediately look into expanding the [4.5 percent fixed rate] program to all American homeowners...Homeowners who have been responsible and paid their mortgages every month should receive the benefit of a lowered mortgage, as well as those who need assistance meeting the demands of their mortgages, he says. "By lowering the monthly payments, we will essentially be giving each homeowner a stimulus check by putting more money in their pocket and without placing a burden on the Treasury or the taxpayer,” says Mr. Cardoza.

From the Stockton Record:

[N]ew numbers from Irvine-based RealtyTrac, which tracks the foreclosure market, indicate that the number of single-family homes actually repossessed by banks and mortgage companies is growing at a faster pace in San Joaquin County. In the first six months of this year, a total of 5,643 houses were repossessed countywide, RealtyTrac said. Compare that with 10,478 from January through October. That means the monthly average of repossessed homes is up from about 940 per month in the first six months of the year to more than 1,200 per month so far in the second half of the year - a nearly 28 percent jump.

From the Sacramento Business Journal:

Kobra Properties won’t bother to save 16 of its most troubled assets as it starts bankruptcy proceedings, the founder and president said in documents filed in the case. The plan to abandon 238 acres — mostly unfinished office, retail and restaurant projects — of its 900-acre real estate portfolio is part of Kobra’s strategy to emerge from bankruptcy as a more viable property developer...The abandoned assets will likely be repossessed by lenders and eventually offered for sale, and could be purchased at a steep discount by investors hoping to profit from one of the worst real estate reversals in decades.
...
“I have determined that certain real property assets of the debtors’ bankruptcy estates are unnecessary for the debtors’ reorganization and have no value to their respective estates,” company founder and president Abe Alizadeh said in court papers. “These assets are burdensome, of inconsequential value and have no equity or value.”

From the Manteca Bulletin:

More than 80 percent of the record 1,044 existing homes in Manteca that have closed escrow so far this year are foreclosures. That means owner-occupants and investors alike lost their homes because they couldn't make the payments. And for the most part it wasn't due to job loss or a catastrophic event such as a major illness. They simply borrowed more than they could afford and did it so with low introduction periods where interest - as well as sometimes part of the principal - was deferred for two to three years. They were betting prices would continue to increase and being able to refinance. The foreclosures are bad news for those who got caught in what is looking more and more like a Ponzi scheme where the last ones in on the housing bubble that expanded beyond reality by liar loans.

Over 10,000 Jobs Lost in Sacramento Region, Unemployment Jumps to 7.9%

From the Sacramento Business Journal:

California and the Sacramento region’s jobless rates both increased a half-percentage point, reaching the highest levels since 1994....The Sacramento area’s jobless rate increased to 7.9 percent, from 7.4 perent in September and 5.5 percent a year ago, according to the state report.

From the Sacramento Bee:

[T]he Sacramento region has lost 10,200 jobs in a year, a 1.1 percent decline. The state has lost 101,300 jobs in a year, a 0.7 percent drop.

Interactive Map: Unemployment by County

From News10:

Stacy Brown of Sacramento hasn't missed any [house] payments, but said she's worried about the months ahead. "Our hours are being cut due to the budget, so I see my salary decreasing so I just want to try to keep ahead of the game," she said. She was among dozens waiting up to three hours to meet with their lenders.

From News10:

Mike Lyon of TrendGraphix said to get ready for another 10 percent price drop over the next four months. It could very well dip to 2001 pricing, he said.
...
Lyon predicted the median home price will bounce above $200,000 in the coming months but says that won't be because home prices are increasing. Instead, he expects foreclosures on larger move-up homes to increase, especially in newer subdivisions in the foothills. He believes those homes will have foreclosure pricing in the $300,000 range and up, thereby increasing the median price of homes in the area.

From the News-Review:

Ray Davis won’t ever refute a moniker bestowed upon him — “the eternal optimist” — because the chief executive officer of Umpqua Bank sees signs of financial recovery, even in these troubled economic times. Take the housing market in Sacramento, Calif., for example, where the average selling time for a home went from 18 months in September 2007 to now less than five months, Davis said...“People are bidding on foreclosures which says we’re hitting bottom in Sacramento,” he said....

From the Sacramento Bee:

Bank repossessions again accounted for the majority of home purchases, especially in Sacramento County, the largest sector of the region's real estate market. DataQuick said two-thirds of the county's sales involved bank repos. "The bad news is there's a lot of foreclosures in the market. The good news is they're selling," said Pat Shea, Sacramento regional manager for Prudential California Realty. "Teachers, policemen, nurses – they can all buy houses now."

Interactive Map: Sacramento Home Price Trends By Community

From the Appeal Democrat:

Yuba County's $175,000 median price in October was 34.5 percent below a year ago, MDA DataQuick reported Thursday...Median prices in the county have fallen 50.2 percent since their November 2005 high of $351,500...Sutter County's October median price was $183,000, down 29.7 percent from the same time last year....Median home prices are now 46 percent below their December 2005 peak of $339,000.

From the Modesto Bee:

Stanislaus County homes sold for a median $161,500 last month....Home prices have dropped a staggering 59.2 percent below the $396,000 peak hit in December 2005...Merced County is even worse. Median-priced homes there sold for $136,750 last month....Merced prices have plunged 64.3 percent since peaking at $382,750 in December 2005...San Joaquin County home values...are 55.7 percent below their November 2005 peak of $451,500.

"It's impossible to say when the bottom will hit," said John Knight, professor of finance and real estate at the University of the Pacific. "I never anticipated such a huge drop in housing prices so quickly."
...
[F]or "prudent consumers who waited to buy," [basically ignoring everything the UOP folks have said for the last three years] Knight said, "there are some tremendous opportunities now. Prices really cannot go much lower ... because it's becoming less expensive to own than to rent. That provides kind of a floor to housing prices."

SRRI: Sacramento Region to Lose 13,000 Jobs by September 2009

From the Sacramento Business Journal:

The Sacramento region can expect an estimated net loss of 13,000 jobs by September 2009 as the hard-hit housing market, credit crunch and low consumer confidence continue to pound the region’s economy. Analysts with the Sacramento Regional Research Institute expect the six-county region, which has already seen a net annual loss of 2,425 jobs for the year ended in September, to lose an additional 1.4 percent from October through next September, according to a report [pdf] released today...“Things have only gotten worse, and that means we expect it to get even worse in the next 12 months,” said Suzanne O’Keefe, associate professor for the department of economics at California State University Sacramento.
...
The six-county region is expected to suffer a 2 percent year-over-year loss of jobs in first-quarter 2009. By comparison, the early 1990s, at its worst point, saw a 2.1 percent year-over-year loss of jobs.

So far, SRRI's predictions have been overly optimistic.

From the Sacramento Bee:

The annual real estate forecast season is on, and Sacramento-area home builders caught a fresh earful of unfriendly predictions Thursday. The consensus of economists, consultants and home-building executives regarding 2009 is the same as they all predicted in November 2007: This numbing housing slump has a long way yet to run.
...
Folsom building industry tracker Greg Paquin had these predictions: Builders will sell 5,300 homes this year in El Dorado, Placer, Sacramento, Sutter, Yolo and Yuba counties and perhaps 10 percent more next year. That's if the economy improves in the second half....New home prices – averaging $374,000 across the region – are about as low as they can go. He said, "We feel we're getting real close to the bottom in the Sacramento market."
...
This year's North State Building Industry Association forecast seemed to find builders bleaker than ever about immediate prospects. Bank repos are killing sales, and the economy is worsening. Hopes are largely pinned now on a distant future when inevitable population growth again stirs demand for what they build.

From News10:

Registrar of Voters Austin Erdman said he noticed a trend that would have an impact on the election. "It actually happened in the February election, when we got 37 tubs of information (voter guides) back from voters. We found the houses are empty," said Erdman. The number of registered voters in San Joaquin County is 268,476. In 2004, it was 276,939.

From the Sacramento Bee:

The day after Barack Obama was elected president, at least 33 more bankruptcies were filed in Sacramento. Foreclosures continued their assault on the region's housing market...[F]or all of Obama's campaign talk about using the power of the government to revive the economy, it's a near certainty that he'll be unable to reverse the downturn quickly.
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What's clear is that the Sacramento economy won't improve meaningfully until the real estate market recovers. Obama has talked about taking steps to help homeowners, including a 90-day foreclosure moratorium and legislation to give bankruptcy judges the right to reduce the amount a debtor owes on his house.

On Wednesday, Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger proposed a similar 90-day moratorium, plus a loan-modification program that would ensure that mortgage payments don't consume more than 38 percent of homeowners' incomes.

Sacramento Home Buyers "Still Face An Elevated Risk of Being 'Upside Down'" in 2012

From Inman News:

Purchase a home in 67 of the nation's 100 largest metropolitan areas and you should be able to build positive equity by 2012, according to a new study comparing ownership and rental costs. The report from the Center for Economic and Policy Research concluded that prospects for building equity by 2012 have improved somewhat in 36 cities, compared with an analysis performed in the spring. In many markets, declines in house prices and modest increases in rents are helping return rent-to-price ratios closer to historical levels, the report found.

But the report identified 33 bubble markets areas where home buyers still face an elevated risk of being "upside down," or owing more than their home is worth, four years from now. One-third of those markets were in California, including San Jose, San Francisco, Los Angeles, Sacramento, San Diego, Fresno, Stockton, Bakersfield, Modesto and Riverside.

From the CEPR report [pdf]:

Given the remaining mismatch between home prices and rent levels in most bubble markets, we argue it is still unwise for policy makers to attempt to directly intervene in housing markets to maintain what are historically unprecedented high home prices. Policies that encourage occupancy, discourage vacancy, and maintain employment to stabilize hard hit communities are likely to be the best approach to assuring prices do not fall any further than is necessary to reestablish a stable housing market.

From the Wall Street Journal:

Lower home prices are luring some buyers back into the U.S. housing market, but foreclosures and a weakening economy are likely to keep downward pressure on prices for at least another year, economists say. A quarterly Wall Street Journal survey of housing data in 28 major metro areas shows that the glut of unsold homes listed for sale is shrinking in most of them. In many cases, sales have been stimulated by investors who are grabbing what they see as bargains on homes that can be turned into rentals. Metro areas with the biggest drops in for-sale signs include Sacramento and Orange County in California and the Virginia suburbs of Washington, D.C.
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Housing analysts caution that many homes that aren't currently listed for sale may hit the market in the next year or two. This looming supply includes pending foreclosures and homes temporarily taken off the market while their owners await stronger demand. With banks chopping prices on foreclosed homes, other sellers "are giving up and taking their homes off of the market," says Michael Lyon, president of Trendgraphix Inc., a research firm in Sacramento.

From the Sacramento Bee:

[A]s auto sales erode, local governments are feeling the squeeze. "Car sales are certainly our biggest contributor to the general fund," said Roseville Treasurer Russ Branson. "Sales taxes overall are down. Property taxes are flat. So all we can do is control expenses." Roseville, home to one of the region's big auto malls, depended on car and truck sales for about 7 percent of its general fund money last year, Branson said. Local vehicle sales dropped 15 percent for the fiscal year that ended in June, according to city statistics. That ripped $1.4 million from the city's coffers and represented a $146.5 million drain on the economy, Branson said.
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Employment at car dealers in the four-county Sacramento region has fallen by 8 percent in the last year to 12,700, according to the state Employment Development Department.
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There are a few reasons to hope a rebound is coming, experts said. The housing market may be close to a bottom – sales over the past few months are up, even though prices continue to fall.

From the Modesto Bee:

With declining home prices, tightening credit and the collapse of several major financial institutions, experts say now may not be the best time to think about leaving your job, even if it's one you hate.
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Suck it up and recommit yourself, said Lee Merchant, a psychology professor at Modesto Junior College. You can do that by assessing where you are in dealing with the fact that quitting will hurt you more than help you in this economy. "Are you in denial? Ask yourself if you have job options or not, because the job market is really bad," Merchant said.

From News10:

Usually you can spot the foreclosure homes through abandoned yards and newspapers in the driveway. One home in Lathrop is identifiable by its missing garage door...The garage door has been torn from the foundation, as has a regular door leading from the garage to the side yard.

Calling Market Bottom (Again)

From the Sacramento Bee:

"Sacramento is well into the first phase of the housing stabilization process, which starts with sales recovering on a year-over-year basis," [DataQuick's Andrew LePage] said.
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Discounted foreclosures were 65.8 percent of September sales in Sacramento County, according to MDA DataQuick. Foreclosures were half of sales in the Los Angeles region and 42 percent of those in the Bay Area during September, the firm said.

DataQuick sales/price stats by county
ADDED: by zip [pdf]

From the Appeal Democrat:

Local median prices were down last month compared with September 2007, declining 31.5 percent in Sutter County, and 36.8 percent in Yuba County. Both counties were well under the $200,000 mark — the only counties in the Sacramento region in that range — coming in at $190,000 in Sutter County and $175,000 in Yuba County.

From the Modesto Bee:

The clearance sale in real estate continued last month, with another jump in the number of homes sold and a continuing drop in prices. Stanislaus County's median sale price was $179,000 in September, down 40 percent from a year earlier, MDA DataQuick reported Tuesday...In Merced and San Joaquin counties, the number of sales also soared last month compared with a year earlier. Each had a 47 percent drop in the median price, to $140,000 in Merced and $191,500 in San Joaquin.
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Craig Lewis, president and chief executive officer at Prudential California Realty in Modesto, said the foreclosure wave appears to be waning. He said prices could bottom out in three or four months. "The next 90 days is the best time to buy in the last 10 years," he said.

Bottom out in three of four months? How can that be when prices bottomed out back in June 2007?

Craig Lewis, president of Prudential California Realty...said [Stanislaus County] median home prices have fallen from $414,000 in 2005 to $359,000 now, and it takes nearly three months to sell the typical home. "First-time home buyers have the ability to buy now, but … they're sitting back and waiting because they think the price will go down more," Lewis said. He doesn't agree. "I certainly feel we're at the bottom of the market."

From CNBC:

[What] strikes me is the positively bewildered expressions on the faces of the chief economists of both associations. These poor guys are tasked with telling everyone when its all going to get better, and the fact of the matter is they just don't know. Don't get me wrong, these are supersmart guys, number crunchers with decades in the business, but as NAHBs David Seiders said, the risk in housing right now is just so high that it makes forecasting extremely difficult.

From the Wall Street Journal:

[Bill] Knoff's house has traveled the arc of the local market. Built on vacant land in 2002, it sold for $280,000. Its original owner unsuccessfully tried to sell it in 2006 for $450,000. Mr. Knoff bought it out of foreclosure in March of this year for $320,000. Today, based on local sales, he figures the house is worth about $220,000. Mr. Knoff paid nearly half of the purchase price in cash, so most of his equity has been wiped out. But he said he believes in taking responsibility for such choices. "The government can buy up troubled mortgages. But it should kick the people out of their houses," said the 61-year-old information technology manager. "Why should I pay for someone to buy their house?"
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[T]he bottom still may not be in sight. Home prices in California could end down as much as 60% from peak values, according to recent research from both Barclay's PLC and J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. Towns like Los Banos may have further to fall. According to the city and a local title office, roughly 2,000 of 10,000 homes in the town are in the foreclosure process. The city expects that number could grow before the crisis passes.

Interactive map thingy

From the Sacramento Bee:

Ward Smith of J. Smith & Sons Inc., a home-entertainment business in Natomas, said business already was slow because of the soft housing market. Then, when the stock market faltered, things came to a near complete halt. "The phones became eerily quiet for no good reason," he said. "Well, maybe there is a good reason. Everyone's (saying), 'We'll wait and see until we know what's really going on.' "
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Prominent real estate broker Mike Lyon also knows what it's like when the phones stop ringing. The president of Lyon & Associates said things got very quiet when the stock market went into its downward spiral. "It was kind of like 9/11, to be honest with you," he said.

From the Sacramento Bee:

[CEO Gary] Pruitt said skeptics wrongly assume the vast majority of McClatchy's decline in revenue is due to a permanent migration of business to the Internet. Instead, he said, most of the problem is due to the economic downturn. McClatchy will "return to revenue growth when the economy resumes growing," he said. As evidence, he noted that McClatchy's biggest problems in the past two years have emerged in California and Florida, where the real estate market has crashed the loudest. But now McClatchy's papers in the Carolinas are experiencing somewhat similar declines as economic woes have spread to those states, he said.

Paquin: 'I think we are at, or very near the bottom'

From the Sacramento Bee:

Sacramento-area homebuilders are still in a tailspin, having to compete with banks that are slashing prices on thousands of foreclosed properties. During the just-finished third quarter, builders sold 1,204 homes, the lowest quarter since the Folsom-based Gregory Group began tracking numbers in 1999. The firm counts sales in El Dorado, Placer, Sacramento, Sutter, Yolo and Yuba counties...Sales were off 24 percent from the same quarter in 2007.
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For the first nine months of 2008, new-home sales totaled 3,990, [Gregory Group President Greg] Paquin said. That's a hefty tumble from 6,087 sales the same time last year. And it's a huge fall from 13,535 sales for the same period in 2004. Paquin estimates the year will end with maximum sales of 5,500 new homes in the capital region.
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"I think we are at, or very near the bottom, in terms of sales and pricing," he said.

One day Paquin will be right. Here's his new home sales forecasts from the last three years:

2006 Forecast: about 14,094
2006 Reality: 9,588

2007 Forecast: 9,500 to 10,000
2007 Reality: 7,407

2008 Forecast: 7,700
2008 Reality: 3,990 (as of Q3)

From the Sacramento Business Journal:

Auto dealers are hurting all over the United States, but Greater Sacramento’s new-car franchises have disappeared at a rate two-and-a-half times greater than the national average. The number of new-car franchises operating in the Sacramento region shrunk by 13.3 percent from December 2004 to August 2008, compared to 5 percent for the national average, according to Urban Science Applications Inc., a Detroit-based retail consulting firm.
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Greater Sacramento has lost a higher proportion of new-car franchises than much of the state and nation because all the broader economic problems — rising gas prices, credit crisis and declining home values — were amplified by the region’s surge in population and accompanying supercharged housing boom. “The housing market cratered here first,” said [Brian] Maas, from the California car dealers’ group.

Sacramento Bee real estate reporter Jim Wasserman on his blog Home Front:

A lot of people think everyone who got in over their heads with a bad loan should go down with the ship, lose the house, let the market flush them out. There's a case for that, sure. It seems to be the outcome that's happening most often.

But it's sure hard imagining yourself in these peoples' shoes. These are real people who regret not looking at the details of loan papers set in front of them. They could kick themselves.
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Bottom line, I can't tell who is innocent or guilty, who should have been smarter or who foolishly refinanced to buy a boat and other toys.