The Bay Area will save us...or not

I'd be remiss if I didn't post links to the following set of articles. As the Sacramento housing market descended into the abyss, the Sacramento Bee floated (or pushed depending on your point of view) a series of bullish arguments about the local real estate market. Bullish theories included:

• Rents are about to skyrocket
• Sacramento's strong economy will blunt the effects of the housing downturn
• The housing downturn won't be as severe/long as the 1990s housing bust
• Renewed Bay Area migration will save us as Sacramento homes are now so cheap in comparison
• High-end/"core areas" are recession proof

The paper has conceded that the first three theories haven't actually worked out as planned (to say the least). Now it looks like they have capitulated on the "Bay Area will save use" theory:

In area conversations about real estate it's often an act of faith that a widening gap between Sacramento and Bay Area home prices might soon spark a new migration east to buy houses cheap and put an end to free-falling prices here.

Nice theory. But wrong. The once-widening gap that seemed to promise help has already closed. While 17 months ago the median sales price in Santa Clara County was $388,000 higher than in Sacramento County, it's now $248,000 higher, says researcher MDA DataQuick. Prices have tumbled in both counties to narrow the original gap.

It means we won't be seeing thousands of Bay Area residents coming anytime soon to prop up Sacramento's housing market or, by extension, its stores, office buildings and economy.

When they capitulate on the last theory (high-end immunity), we should be much closer to bottom.

More from the Stockton Record:

If you're a homeowner hoping for an equity-swelling Boom II, fed by Bay Area residents swarming back over the Altamont Pass again to start snapping up cheaper Valley home prices, forget about it - at least anytime soon. Home sellers and builders report that few Bay Area buyers are out shopping for homes in San Joaquin County, even with prices having been cut by almost 44 percent year-to-year to a median of $155,000 in February. Existing homes in Contra Costa County are moving at a median sales price of not much more than $200,000, for example, after prices shrank by 52.2 percent year to year in the foreclosure-hammered residential downturn.

"I don't see Bay Area buyers coming back yet, because the prices there are so affordable and the interest rates are so good," said Jerry Abbott, president and co-owner of Grupe Real Estate in Stockton...When a "normal" market returns, Bay Area prices will regain its typically much higher, pricier ground, and Central Valley prices will look much more attractive again, they said. "It will come back but not anytime soon," Abbott said.

Buyer's Remorse Version 2008

From the Sacramento Bee:

Shania Jensen sat in the kitchen of her 2,700 square-foot home in Roseville's Crocker Ranch neighborhood and uttered three words that no homebuyer ever wants to say aloud. "I regret buying," Jensen said simply.

She and her husband, Steve Liggett, had been renting for two years, waiting for the right home. The wait ended in May 2008. "We thought we were getting a great deal on this," she said of the $419,000 purchase price. But today other new homes in the neighborhood are selling for under $400,000.
...
"With the taxes right now, if we end up deciding to leave, we'll leave California," Jensen said.

Ryan Jessup: Sacramento Bee's Latest Housing Bubble "Victim"

One of the most disappointing aspects of the media's coverage since the housing bubble burst (besides the blind reliance on "expert" opinion), has been the parade of so-called victims. Is it just me, or has the media struggled mightily in its search for legitimate causalities of the housing bubble fiasco? Are they looking in the wrong places? Is it simply that there is not enough genuine victims?

I pondered these questions as I read an article by Jim Wasserman in Sunday's Sacramento Bee. Among others, the story profiles a man by the name of Ryan Jessup, who "walked away" from his Oak Park house (this site says it was a short sale).

[M]any who can afford their payments have decided it's no longer worth it. They walk, or, as is becoming the trend, park rent-free in the house for months until they get the boot.

It's a question that Ryan Jessup of Sacramento answered a year ago, when he, too, sensed the financial game had turned against him. Early in 2008, the software engineer stopped making payments on his Victorian house in Oak Park. A long habit of playing by the rules, he said, had provided him a good income, a credit score of 804 and a lovely $430,000 house. But when playing by the rules meant riding down the housing market to who knows where, he said, "It came down to morals or survival. I chose survival. It made no sense to stay."
...
Many borrowers like Clawson and Jessup no longer feel so obligated to a financial system they believe overstimulated the housing market, sold them questionable loan products, sometimes by fraud, and then didn't provide help they need in the face of falling home values.
...
Jessup walked away. "I haven't even looked (at the credit score)," he said. "It's like being hit by a train or a bus."
...
Jessup, looking back, has no regrets. He lives with a friend now who has also stopped making payments on a condo bought at the peak of the market in 2005.

What Mr. Wasserman didn't say in the article is that apparently Ryan Jessup has quite the history of touting the virtues of Sacramento real estate in comments at sacbee.com. As the name sounded familiar, I dug through Sacramento Land(ing)'s "save for future use" folder and ran across some quotes by a sacbee.com commenter named "rjessup2mouse." Could rjessup2mouse be Ryan Jessup?

I started to read the article's comments and sure enough, rjessup2mouse, purporting to be Ryan Jessup quickly chimed in on his own story:

rjessup2mouse wrote on 03/08/2009 06:47:04 AM:

Good article Jim - this is a very hotly debated topic right now and weighing on alot of peoples minds. yes the house was actually in a nice neighborhood. Not all of Oak Park is bad... I was extremely choosy of where I bought and wanted to be closer to downtown as I figured the value would hold up better. It did but still fell enough for me to leave. I did not think it would increase in price when I bought it. I am sure alot of people on this board are going to be angry - I figured as much - I am not happy with the way it turned out and I lost alot of $$$ on it. But to me it was better to lose alot then to lose it all (and keep losing). One of the reasons I chose to be a part of the article was for the people who were not speculators or anyone who thought the market would go up forever. Just for normal people who had always played by the rules and then the game changed. Each situation is different and deciding to miss that first payment is a tough one.

Assuming that rjessup2mouse really is Ryan Jessup, let's take a look at how Jessup got to the point of parting with his own bit of Sacramento real estate. Below are some excerpts from comments made by Ryan Jessup over the last few years. Jessup's arguments (and tone) nicely encapsulate the mindset of many, whether "experts" or not, in the face of the housing bubble's implosion.

For those who choose not to wade through the excerpts, here is a summary of Ryan Jessup's assertions over the years:

(1.) Employment is strong
(2.) Population growth is strong
(3.) Home prices will not crash
(4.) It's all about affording the monthly payment
(5.) State government is strong
(6.) The sky is not falling
(7.) This will not be like the .com implosion
(8.) There are a lot of buyers out there (especially in my neighborhood)
(9.) My neighborhood is special/great/different [see green highlights below]
(10.) The economy is strong
(11.) Those who did not buy "missed the boat"
(12.) Real estate is not the stock market
(13.) Real estate is not wildly unaffordable
(14.) People have made millions on real estate
(15.) Construction employment is still going strong
(16.) My industry sources say things are good
(17.) This is nothing like the 1990s (as in not as bad).
(18.) The bottom is near
(19.) Good areas (i.e. where I live) are doing fine
(20.) The worst is behind us
(21.) I bought in 200x, I will be fine
(22.) Subprime will have little impact
(23.) The Bay Area will save us...

Now on to the excerpts. Let's start out with Ryan Jessup's take on the Sacramento Bee's ill-conceived 'No Panic' piece, which was published just as home prices were going negative (yoy).

rjessup2mouse at 7:28 AM PST Tuesday, June 20, 2006 wrote:

To a lot of negative folks - the market will be ok

There are people who write comments in these sections that would LOVE to see housing fall down. So you come up with your doomsday scenarios and facts to support your own theories. Sorry - this article is one of the better ones around. Solid job and population growth in Sacramento will keep from a market crash. Sorry for all you "experts" out there who need to bash the bee and think the market is 53% overvalued. If prices drop 53% here I will buy 20 of them..... I do believe prices will drop a little more and then basically become stagnation for a long time. People who own should not expect appreciation for 5 years at least. Homeowners - just ride out the current downtrend by staying in your house. Homebuyers - maybe wait a couple of months. Or find a homeowner who is panicking and get a bargain.

According to DataQuick, the total home price decline exceeded 53% back in December. Funny, I don't remember any recent reports of software engineers buying 20 homes at a time. Also note Jessup's advice for homeowners to ride out the downturn.

rjessup2mouse at 9:24 AM PST Thursday, June 22, 2006 wrote:

...I also agree there seems to be alot of negativity. Those generally come from people with a vested interest in seeing the market fall. Everyone tried to talk me out of buying in 2002 - saying that it was better to rent and the sky will fall. All I can say is I know a TON of friends that sure hate renting and I am sure glad I didn't listen to the naysayers. It really all comes down to the monthly payment and can you afford it...If you are in the house for the long haul - you will be fine if you lock in a good rate and price isn't as important...


rjessup2mouse at 2:45 PM PST Wednesday, June 28, 2006 wrote:

Prices will fall some but they won't crash
But I am suprised that there is a 42% chance that they won't decline. Prices will decline some but won't crash as incomes need to catch up. The State of California is Sacramento's main employer and the state is in hiring mode and doing well. There seems to be quite a few positions open.


rjessup2mouse at 9:13 AM PST Thursday, June 29, 2006 wrote:

...Prices will fall a little and then stagnate for a long while. There seems to be a vicious negative tone to the people who have an interest in the market and sky falling. I think you will see a pretty large difference in the .com drop and a housing drop. Wether you have money or not - there are people (alot) that have $ to buy houses and the region is not short of buyers . Plus the economy here is strong. People are simply waiting to see if they can get a better deal by holding off some. This combined with homeowners panicking to get the the best price now before any drop - that is why you see so many homes on the market. Prices have gotten high but they won't fall overnight (like stocks) and won't change much on even a yearly basis. I think the largest correction might happen in the next 3 months. Like I have said before - buyers - wait a little to get a better deal - homeowners - don't panic and remember why you bought your house (to live in) and ride out the real estate game in sac.


rjessup2mouse at 7:57 AM PST Wednesday, July 12, 2006 wrote:

I agree prices are falling - I never said anything otherwise. I just don't believe the extreme view of the market falling apart. Extreme views rarely happen and are more based on theories and in cases such as this thread - hopes of someone who has a vested interest. Alot of people want to focus on the negative and ignore positive. There are too many things in Sacramento's favor for housing to fall apart. I totally agree a price correction is currently happening. I think a 8-10% correction is in order, then basically very little or no appreciation for roughly 5 years.


rjessup2mouse at 1:25 PM PST Tuesday, July 18, 2006 wrote:

markets are dictated by emotion coupled with supply and demand.I think there will be some more slight drops followed by some large stagnation. Can't wait to see all "the sky is falling" comments in this thread shortly.


rjessup2mouse at 10:10 PM PST Wednesday, August 2, 2006 wrote:

no the sky is not falling but there are going to be bouts of depreciation and people that have a difficult time. Sacramento will be ok. People who are looking for massive depreceation are in for a very slow letdown...


rjessup2mouse at 5:01 PM PST Thursday, August 3, 2006 wrote:

jobs are very healthy and growing in sacramento right now. Be thankful as that does have the biggest impact and is a massive cushion against the sky is falling folks...


rjessup2mouse at 8:24 PM PST Wednesday, August 16, 2006 wrote:

people who are waiting for a crash are in for a slow dissappointment. Prices will probably fall a little more and then hold steady for awhile. The regional economy is too strong for a crash. In fact I have seen alot of Pending Sales in my area (East Sac) because some folks are swooping in to pick up $10-20k price drops...


rjessup2mouse at 7:34 AM PST Thursday, August 17, 2006 wrote:

NoNewArena sounds like a reasonable voice


rjessup2mouse at 9:15 AM PST Thursday, August 17, 2006 wrote:

The people who want housing prices to crash are people who have an agenda. So they try and add fuel to the fire and get joyful of a families demise, just be glad you are not them. There is alot of jealousy over missing the boat and not making $ while others made a lot of money. yeah - prices may fall a little - it isn't going to crash - and the local economy is strong - and mortgage rates are falling. There are alot of buffers. I am already seeing some Pending sales in my neighborhood finally. Buyers wanted to see 10k -20k price drops. People seem to forget there are alot of buyers. And simple math - owning your own home over the long run saves $$. It seems as if its a big game/stock market right now. When prices do a hit a bottom - I bet they spring back up pretty good as people pull inventory out because their houses are making money again and buyers pent up demand comes in pretty quickly.


rjessup2mouse at 12:59 PM PST Thursday, August 17, 2006 wrote:

Be funny when the price bottom hits to see how fast the mentality turns again. Sacramento housing will not fall 25% - thats too steep a decline with so many buyers out there.


rjessup2mouse at 9:05 AM PST Friday, August 18, 2006 wrote:

No the market will not tank - sorry for people who want it too its simple math. what you would be paying for rent principle tax write off = Sacramento is not as overpriced as you would think. sorry andersb - the local economy does matter and the housing market is NOT the stock market. They are both assets but they ACT VERY DIFFERENT. People need to realize that the underlying factors that make them different but I will let you figure that out yourself. I am blown away by the hositlity of people on these postings with their number twisting to try and persuade that the housing market is going to fall 50%. Yes - the market is dropping right now and may drop a little more. But I bet it won't even drop 10% more. But there are alot more factors than simple hope it tanks so you can make a buck by getting a cheaper house. Seems some areas are already starting to rebound (midtown, east sac and med center area)...There are A LOT of buyers out there.


rjessup2mouse at 11:48 AM PST Friday, August 18, 2006 wrote:

...There are too many good things about Sacramento for the market to tfall alot. People have been saying the Bay Area is totally unafforadable and overpriced for about 25 years. that doesn't mean that it was going to drop. Just because some people don't have money - doesn't mean it isn't out there. Don't get me wrong - I probably will not buy in the next 2-3 months or so to see what happens. The market is not good- except maybe closer to downtown - that seems to be showing some suprising strength the last couple of months as prices dropped some and inventory is lower.

rjessup2mouse at 12:43 PM PST Friday, August 18, 2006 wrote:

...People have made MILLIONS on real estate. I don't believe i know ANY wealthy renters but I know a TON of wealthy homeowners...


rjessup2mouse at 8:38 AM PST Thursday, August 31, 2006 wrote:

...Currently I don't believe prices are really that much higher than they should be. I am sure alot of people would disagree with that and probably about 90% of folks on this forum(most people on this forum have a vested interest in wanting prices to come down)...I believe housing will fall maybe a little more and then hold steady for a long time. Just my personal opinion but my track record for being correct has made a lot of $ for people.


rjessup2mouse at 8:46 AM PST Thursday, August 31, 2006 wrote:

I see you are a doomsdayer. Yes - even though the state is adding many jobs and employment is very strong in sacramento its going to all fall apart because....housing employment is down? ummm hate to tell you that construction employment is doing REALLY well right now. All of my construction sources say there is more work then they have folks right now. And comparing the 90's bust to today is comparing apples and oranges. But these housing forums are full of it. Some people on these forums need to get up in the morning and drink a little reality.


rjessup2mouse at 9:25 AM PST Wednesday, September 20, 2006 wrote:

Home prices are close to bottom...Some really good deals are out there. Good areas seem to be closer to downtown...


rjessup2mouse at 12:07 PM PST Sunday, September 24, 2006 wrote:

Thinking a 40% decline huh? your in for a big let down. And heck - that 40% you said was modest. why not bottom at 75%?? you should be able to pick up a 2000 sq foot for around $150k soon right? if you wait long enought maybe at $125k? Some people are absolutely nuts - how do you possibly think it could decline by that? how?


rjessup2mouse at 7:32 AM PST Sunday, October 1, 2006 wrote:

East Sac, Med Center, Midtown and Land Park have been selling alot lately. Closer to downtown seems to have gotten hot(relativly) in the last month and a half actually.


rjessup2mouse at 11:00 AM PST Wednesday, October 18, 2006 wrote:

...I disagree that prices will drop much further though...I think prices by far have gone through the worst of it now.


rjessup2mouse at 7:23 AM PST Thursday, October 19, 2006 wrote:

...and no - I bought in 2002 - I am fine...


rjessup2mouse at 8:57 AM PST Saturday, December 16, 2006 wrote:

...[Y]ou paint a pretty bleak picture of downtown. I think there are plenty of beautiful areas in downtown, east sac , med center and such.


rjessup2mouse at 7:41 AM PST Friday, December 22, 2006 wrote:

Have to completely disagree with Mr.Lyon's assessment on 10% decline for sacramento. Most "experts" predict 3.5%. His is by far the biggesst drop prediction I have read about. This last year seems to have come in about 8.2%. I thought it would have been 10% this last year so it was almost 2% better than i even expected. So is Mr. Lyon saying that this year should be worse than last? Why is he the only one saying this?


rjessup2mouse at 10:25 AM PST Friday, December 22, 2006 wrote:

I have no number crunching but I would have to say that I predicted a 10% drop for the year last year (I was off by 2% )and I will predict a 3-4% drop this year. But I am no expert - I just listen to people who are in the industry and what they see happening.


rjessup2mouse at 9:07 AM PST Sunday, December 31, 2006 wrote:

...Smart money right now is saying that sac is going to do 0 to -3% for the year....


rjessup2mouse at 1:08 PM PST Friday, January 5, 2007 wrote:

people are so negative that have an agenda or a vested interest. The bee has covered stories that make housing look bad and they cover stories that make housing look good. Are you some of the same folks that said it would be down 20% this last year? I remember those predictions a year ago. Looks like Sac was down 8.2%. Some areas in Sac were worse than that and some areas less. But just hoping/waiting for the bottom to fall out is not going to make it happen. California Real Estate is and always will be a good investment long term. The worst is over. That doesn't mean it is bottom but I believe by far the worst is behind.


rjessup2mouse at 10:01 AM PST Wednesday, January 17, 2007 wrote:

Oak Park is changing and I have seen investor interest in it. Next to it - The med center area - is a really good place to have a home and rather safe. Remember - not all of Oak Park is considered "bad".


rjessup2mouse at 8:22 AM PST Wednesday, March 14, 2007 wrote:

...I am not to worried about the subprime headlines of right now. It will have some impact I am sure but not much. Just like everyone was saying the housing market would already be down 35%...


rjessup2mouse at 8:41 PM PST Wednesday, April 4, 2007 wrote:

I think Med center area is already pretty nice.


rjessup2mouse at 1:02 PM PST Thursday, April 5, 2007 wrote:

kindof what I have been saying - Dowtown and Midtown are solid
the suburbs and sub divisions have taken a large hit while closer to downtown has been fairly steady. The houses closer to downtown are bouncing back quicker because people are realizing that you can't make these homes anymore and therefore have good price stability. There will only be less - never more of these homes.


rjessup2mouse at 8:20 AM PST Friday, April 13, 2007 wrote:

funny to see the gloomers again :-) - always makes me chuckle to see the 40% drop again predicted/wanted by home buyers. I am sorry for the doom and gloomers - your not going to get anywhere near that price drop. Not even close. Housing I think is going to take a small hit again - with negative publicity being the bigger culprit than what will actually shake out with the subprime situation. People tend to forget that we are tied to the bay area home prices and that the local job market is plenty strong. I am no real estate agent or optimist - just a realist. For the past few years my predictions have been pretty close - and i would predict possibly another 2-4% drop...


rjessup2mouse at 12:53 PM PST Friday, April 13, 2007 wrote:

...my finances are fine are yours? do you own a house or have you ever? I didn't think so. WIll you? and do the math - its not that tricky - fairly simple actually. As far as predictions - I am sorry to say that it has been fairly accurate. I do appreciate how emotional you are over it - I believe you probably one of the "its going to drop by about 30%" correct? Makes me laugh.


rjessup2mouse at 12:59 PM PST Friday, April 13, 2007 wrote:

isn't it funny? I have been seeing these posts for 2 years now - the predictions by most of the gloomers have been that the market would have dropped 25% as of now. It has not. I think I said 7 - 15% from the start.

I find the final two comments, made in January 2008, particularly interesting given that Jessup purportedly stopped paying his Oak Park mortgage in early 2008.

rjessup2mouse at 11:33 AM PST Friday, January 18, 2008 wrote:

a little advice - the really good deals
If you want a bargain and something thats gonna retain its value. Buy where a bunch of houses are NOT for sale and try and scoop up a bank repo. Some downtown and surrounding areas have it- just gotta find the right pockets of places.

0 out of 3 people found this comment helpful.


rjessup2mouse at 1:46 PM PST Saturday, January 19, 2008 wrote:

time to buy or at least look pretty hard
you folks that are sitting should be looking right now.

1 out of 5 people found this comment helpful.

'Who would have thought?'

From the Sacramento Bee:

Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger will send layoff warnings to at least 20,000 state workers Friday unless he reaches a budget agreement with legislative leaders that precludes the need for such cuts, his office announced Tuesday. The Republican governor intends to eliminate 10,000 full-time positions from the state's general fund, either by job cuts, attrition or transfer to positions funded by special revenue streams, according to Schwarzenegger spokesman Aaron McLear.
...
Jason Dickerson, a budget analyst at the nonpartisan Legislative Analyst's Office, said the state has never laid off 10,000 workers before. "It might be possible to lay off 1,000 to 2,000 people, but laying off 10,000 or more employees would be next to impossible without gutting core services," Dickerson said.

From the Sacramento Bee:

Executives at the two local banks that have received shots of federal capital say the money isn't likely to spur much new lending, at least until the economy begins to recover. "It's that old economic spiral thing. … It's really difficult in this environment to find loans that we can underwrite," said Mark Lund, president and chief executive at Auburn-based Community 1st Bank. Last month, the bank received a $2.55 million investment as part of the government's Troubled Asset Relief Program.

From the Sacramento Bee:

Andrea Hawkins, 31, said she was doing well financially, running a mortgage business out of her Elk Grove home until the housing downturn. Now she's struggling to pay her own mortgage each month. "It's scary trying to make ends meet," she said...Now the single mother of four has joined the ranks of those needing assistance.
...
Blake Young, director of Sacramento Food Bank & Family Services,...said his organization served 25 percent more people in 2008 than 2007. Many are larger family groups from the same address. "People are finding it necessary to combine households to make ends meet," he said.

From LA Land:

[L]ooking ahead, the Zillow survey found a surprisingly sunny outlook. Fully 25% of homeowners in the West thought their home will increase in value within six months. That's up from 14% in the third quarter who had such high hopes for their home.

An update on the squatlord story. From News10:

The neighbors were suspicious but the tenants showed police a lease to prove they belonged. But now, the case of mystery tenants moving into a vacant upscale Natomas house in the Westlake subdivision last week has brought arrest warrants for those tenants and their real estate broker.

More here.

From the Tracy Press:

The sinking housing market has taken down an 18-year-old Tracy business that once employed more than 300 people. Piedmont Lumber and Truss...will issue its last paychecks to its 25 or so employees Thursday....

From the OC Register:

National Association of Realtors’ chief economist Lawrence Yun told an Orange County crowd today that he failed to foresee the depth of the housing crash....“What I found out was there was a credit market bubble that led to a housing market bubble. There was not check and balance in the system,” he said.
...
When the bubbles burst, home prices fell by as much as 45% in Stockton, he said...“Who would have thought a tangible asset would fall 45% in one year?” Yun asked.

Certainly not the NAR!

From the CVBT:

Home prices have plunged three and a half times more in San Joaquin County than the nation as a whole, according to a report Tuesday from Integrated Asset Services LLC....San Joaquin County leads the nation with a 51 percent drop in home values compared to the height of the housing bubble – more than any county in the nation, the report says.

From the Stockton Record:

Stockton resident Jorge A. Aragon is shocked at the ever-sinking house prices, hammered down by a predominantly foreclosures market over the past 21/2 years, but he's not looking to buy. He bought a house in 2002 for $220,000 and another in 2007 for $344,000, and now he's working with two banks to try to get loan modifications that will keep them out of foreclosure. Meanwhile, he can only be amazed as people move into his neighborhood into homes such as his at prices running below $100,000.
...
Jerry Abbott, president and co-owner of Grupe Real Estate of Stockton...thinks prices won't sag further. "We're dragging along the bottom."
...
In Stockton, the median sales price of $125,000 last month is a level not seen since 2001, said John Knight, professor of finance and real estate at University of the Pacific's Eberhardt School of Business. "I cannot envision that prices are going to continue to go down," he said. "I think we're either at or near the bottom for selling prices." Now the rents that investors can get for foreclosure homes covers mortgage payments for these lower-priced houses and then some, he said, and that's why the market is clearing out the listings.

From Seeking Alpha:

Having just returned from Sacramento/Stockton to look at defaulted condominium projects, I can tell you it's a solid mess out there. Investors from all over the Bay Area, and indeed the entire country, are making the same drive across Interstate 80 and descending on more or less the same spots. Unfortunately, the smartest investors will tell you they have no idea when it will end or what their exit strategy is, so not much is getting done on any scale.

The unemployment rate in Sacramento/Stockton is now in double digits (and climbing), and most people will have no choice but to relocate in order to find work. Consequently, there are some projects that will simply need to be bulldozed and plowed under.
...
[F]oreclosures not only create additional supply of "shadow" rentals, but home prices in these hard hit areas will eventually drop (if they haven't already) to levels where it will be much cheaper to buy than to rent.

Forbes: Stockton Home Prices to Drop to Mid-1990s Levels

From Forbes:

Topping the charts [of the Forbes Misery Measure] is Stockton, Calif., which was the runner-up on our list last year...Stockton was ground zero for the housing boom and now the subsequent bust. Home prices more than tripled between 1998 and 2005 and then came crashing down last year...Things are not looking much brighter in 2009 as housing prices are expected to fall another 36% on the heels of a 39% drop in 2008. Also, unemployment is expected to jump to 13.3% from 10.4%, according to economic research firm Moody's Economy.com.
~~~
[H]ousing prices should keep falling back to their mid-1990s level when the median home price was $130,000.

From Business Week:

It was good while it lasted. But the housing crisis and the recent economic downturn have forced many of the America's fastest-growing towns to adapt to the new reality of falling home prices and rising unemployment. And it's not clear whether the builders will return or whether the nation's next boomtowns will rise elsewhere.
...
When the construction boom crashed a few years ago in the farming town of Elk Grove, Calif., south of Sacramento, it caught retail developers off guard. The launch of the 1.1 million-square-foot Elk Grove Promenade open-air shopping mall, originally set for 2008, has been pushed off until the end of next year even though the project is nearly complete. Not only is the developer struggling financially, but the mall is located on the edge of a rural expanse where Elk Grove was expected to develop.

"When everything was booming, the builders said, 'We're going to get ahead of the game,'" said Garrick Brown, director of research for Colliers International in the Sacramento regional office. "Usually retailers follow rooftops. In this case, they followed building permits."

From the Sacramento Bee:

The McClatchy Co. will trim payroll, curtail its retirement plan and cut operating expenses by at least $100 million following a dismal fourth-quarter earnings report Thursday. Posting a net loss for the quarter, The Bee's owner is readying its third round of major cutbacks in less than a year. Details are still to come, but layoffs are likely, and the Sacramento publisher will freeze its pensions and suspend contributions to its 401(k) plans.

ADDED - From the Modesto Bee:

County Bank, reeling since the real estate market collapsed in the Northern San Joaquin Valley, was shut down late this afternoon by state regulators, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. announced. The FDIC agreed to sell bank's deposits and branches to Westamerica Bank of San Rafael...The move comes a week after County Bank reported its losses linked to bad real estate development loans had swelled to about $96 million.

Bay Area SOS

From the Sacramento Bee:

The recession has finally caught up with Silicon Valley and much of the Bay Area...The economy here escaped the worst of the housing market crash – but not the more recent slump in consumer spending. That's hitting the tech sector hard.
...
Sacramento is hurting because it's being starved of the eastward migration – of people, jobs and wealth – that occurs when the Bay Area is healthy.
...
State records show Intel Corp. laid off 200 workers at its 6,000-employee Folsom research park last year, and it continues to struggle...Hewlett-Packard Co...let 70 workers go at its Roseville campus last year, bringing employment to less than 3,500. As it integrates its acquisition of EDS Corp., it plans to lay off 24,600 workers worldwide over three years, which could affect Roseville and EDS operations in Sacramento, Rancho Cordova and Folsom.

From the Sacramento Business Journal:

Sacramento’s office market went backwards in 2008. The vacancy rate for Sacramento’s office buildings rose for the seventh straight quarter to end the year. And for the first time in two decades, tenants used less space at the end of the year than they occupied at the beginning, according to the region’s top brokerages.
...
Even traditionally stable areas have seen a drop-off. Nico Coulouras, vice president at Lowe Enterprises Real Estate Group, which controls about 700,000 square feet in the Highway 50 submarket, one of the best-performing areas in recent years, said leasing activity in that area was steady until November. “Then, it got quiet,” he said.

From the KCRA:

Home Depot Inc. said it is cutting 7,000 jobs and closing its smaller Expo chain, including a store in Roseville, as the recession continues to batter the nation's housing market.

From the Stockton Record:

...[San Joaquin] County's unemployment rate hit 13 percent in December, up 1.1 percent from November, according to data released Friday by California's Employment Development Department. It is the highest rate in the county in 12 years.
...
In recent months, [UOP economist Jeff] Michael had been saying that San Joaquin County employment numbers weren't as bleak as the national numbers and wondering whether that was a short-lived phenomenon. "Pretty clearly it was a blip," he said. "My reaction to (the new employment report) was, 'Wow!'"

From Business Week (hat tip RV6Flyer):

We asked AXIOMetrics, a Dallas-based apartment data company, to assemble a list of the 25 large metros where the rate of rent declines accelerated most in the fourth quarter.
...
Sacramento/Arden-Arcade/Roseville, Calif.
Rank: 24
Rent drop: -1.9%
Q4 2008 rent change: -3.9%
Q4 2007 rent change: -2.0%

From The Housing Bubble blog's Ben Jones:

We had...[a serious recession] in Texas when I was young. At first, lots of people hoped oil and real estate would bounce back and save our necks, but economics don’t work that way. We had a bubble and it didn’t come back.

What is frustrating to me is that the ongoing debate is headed by the fools that got us in this situation. Housing isn’t going to lead us anywhere. The fact is we’ve had the largest financial mania in history. It’s not going to return, and we better start working on how we will work and live in the future. Nobody can turn the clock back, and hoping that housing will lead a recovery is just as futile wishing oil would rebound in the 80’s.

Sacramento Unemployment Hits 8.7%; Rental Occupancy Drops

From the Sacramento Bee:

Greater Sacramento unemployment jumped to 8.7 percent, up from 8.1 percent a month earlier...The region has now lost 22,400 jobs in the past year, or 2.4 percent of its employment base.

From the Sacramento Business Journal:

The highest local jobless rate was in Yolo County, at 9.8 percent. The county has a labor force of 99,900 with 9,800 unemployed last month. The county had a 9 percent unemployment rate in November.

From the Sacramento Bee:

Unaccounted for [in the employment numbers is]...the growing numbers of workers who have had to settle for less of a job than they wanted. "The pain in the economy is much greater than the jobless numbers would indicate," said economist Sung Won Sohn of California State University, Channel Islands...Jenny Beard, owner of the Express Employment Professionals office in Roseville, said the number of former full-time workers seeking part-time work is undeniably up. "I'm positive of that," she said. "We're seeing many candidates who just want to keep themselves employed."

From the Sacramento Bee:

Sacramento-area rental occupancy dropped nearly a percentage point – 0.7 percent – in the fourth quarter of 2008 compared with the year-previous quarter, according to a survey released Wednesday by Novato-based rental industry analyst RealFacts...About 93 percent of area rental properties were occupied, one of the lowest occupancy rates in the state....
...
One local analyst cited a "cacophony" of factors contributing to the drop, from overbuilding, to single-family homes turning to rentals in a disastrous housing market, to a struggling economy.

From Home Front:

Here at The Bee, we do a ton of stories on the housing market, but don't often enough explore the world of apartments that house an estimated 35 percent of the region's population...The bottom line right now: the apartment industry is slumping, too. Sales prices are falling, a few have fallen into foreclosure and buyers are waiting on the sidelines to see if prices fall more, the two said. There's still more supply than demand, which has lessened investor interest, too, in apartments.

From the Placer Herald:

Placer County’s foreclosure rate continued to gain steam in 2008, according to a year-end analysis of government records. And experts say to expect more of the same in 2009. The number of foreclosures in the just-ended period was up more than 110 percent from a year ago, with 2,552 residential properties being taken over, compared to 1,193.
...
Homes in all segments of the market – from “starter” homes to area mansions – showed up on county default rolls last year en masse, experts say. “It’s pretty much going after all of them,” said Ben Herb, president of the Placer County Association of Realtors. “Even the houses that are a million-plus have been going into foreclosure.”

From CBS13:

Loan consultant, Robert Turrietta, say that one particular foreclosed home in Sacramento's Oak Park neighborhood lost almost 75 percent of its value. "This particular home transferred a couple of years ago for around $200,000 and just recently sold and closed escrow for $39,000," Turrietta explains. Turrietta says while home prices fall, nearly half of the buyers applying for a loan are getting denied.

Related Post: Housing Bubble Casualties: Professionals 'Suckered' into Oak Park

From the Sacramento Bee:

Most of Sacramento's local banks bet small on the real-estate boom and, as a rule, they haven't been badly hurt by the bust. But according to federal filings, most local lenders have a larger stake in the commercial real estate market, where vacancies – and loan defaults – are expected to soar this year as more businesses fold.
...
[Colliers International's Garrick] Brown anticipates 5 percent to 6 percent of the region's commercial real estate properties will go into foreclosure in the next two years. That's similar to the rate of home foreclosures locally in 2007-8, according to data from foreclosures.com.

Merced breaks the -50% YoY mark. From the Modesto Bee:

Stanislaus County's median sale price was $157,500 in December,...44 percent below the $281,250 in December 2007 and 60 percent off the $396,000 in December 2005, when the bubble was at its biggest...[YoY price declines:] 51.8 percent in Merced [and] 47.5 percent in San Joaquin.
...
Richard Green, director of the University of Southern California's Lusk Center for Real Estate, said the market is being hammered by tight credit, expectations of further price declines and job losses. "If you see the unemployment rate turn around, that's when you'll start to see housing prices bottom and start turning in the other direction," Green said. "Until that happens, I'm pretty gloomy."

From the Sacramento Bee:

Sacramento County is about to announce a mid-year budget shortfall of $42.3 million....As a result the county at the Feb. 10 Board of supervisors meeting will propose getting rid of almost 200 positions on top of almost $30 million in cuts, according to an official, not authorized to speak on the budget, who had been briefed on the situation.

From CBS13:

With a skyrocketing foreclosure rate and plummeting sales taxes, Stockton has to cut $30 million from their $180 million general fund...[O]fficials say layoffs are inevitable.

From CBS13:

The recession is leaving some doctor's offices empty. More women are putting motherhood on hold and recent reports show contraceptive sales are through the roof. The data runs about two years behind, we won't know for sure until 2011, but it appears that with the economic slowdown has come something of a pregnant pause.

Share of Sacramento Homes Sold to Investors Hits 25%, Back to Bubble-Era Levels

From the Sacramento Bee:

In 2008, long to be remembered for fear and opportunity, capital-area investor Scott Arbuckles and partners also saw the sudden opening...Last year, he bought eight Sacramento County repos priced below $120,000 to fix up and rent. By December, investors like him accounted for one in four home sales in the county – the most since mid-2004 – according to statistics released Tuesday by MDA DataQuick of La Jolla.
...
"It's fair to say we've seen the beginning of a recovery in sales," said [DataQuick's Andrew] LePage. "But it's a strange recovery that's not as broad-based as you'd usually see. A lot of starter homes sold and nothing happened. A lender gets the money back, but no one is moving up."
...
The outlook for 2009: more of the same, said LePage. "I think so much is riding on the health of the job market this year in Sacramento. For the market to really stabilize, you have to end that vicious cycle of foreclosures in hard-hit areas, and it's going to be hard to do that if more people are thrown out of work."

DataQuick statistics by county
DataQuick statistics by zip

From The Union:

I just want to know one thing: If Barack Obama fixes the economy, will that fix the shortage of girls available for the Nevada County Girls Softball Association? This year, unlike many years prior, the association’s participation has dwindled. Both league president Jennifer Ulatowski and NorCal representative Todd Richards referenced the faulty economy as to why the league has about 275 girls right now, compared to the 400 that participated a year ago.
...
“I’m pretty sure it’s the economy,” said Richards, who doubles as a coach in the league. “Most of the Sacramento leagues are feeling the hurt too.”...[R]ecreation, at this point, appears to be a luxury to some and their children that few can afford. At least, a lot of parents have said as much...What’s even tougher is acknowledging that the numbers may not come back anytime soon in a community that has more and more families moving away.

DataQuick: Sacramento Median Price Drops Below $180,000

From the Sacramento Bee:

Median sales prices dipped to $176,000 in Sacramento County last month, reflecting the dominance of bank repos in the market following a wave of 2008 foreclosures...[That] is the lowest since May 2001.

From the Sacramento Bee:

Greg Paquin of the Gregory Group, the Folsom housing market consultant, said new-home sales in greater Sacramento will total 4,695 this year, the same as 2008. But he acknowledged that prediction is probably optimistic.

From Home Front:

It was...interesting to see the links between the real estate declines that started here in Sacramento in 2005 and the budget nightmares that are now in full swing statewide as home values fall. The speakers made it especially clear that the housing crash that started in the Central Valley and the Inland Empire of Southern California is now happening everywhere in the state.

Realtor Julie Jalone:

I believe 2009 will be a repeat of last year when looking at inventory and unless the recession continues or the credit crisis worsens I predict we will have less than 10 thousand homes on the market by the end of the year. Having fewer homes on the market will dampen the downward pressure on home prices...I believe 2009 will be another year of declining prices/value although by late year I think we will see some firming of prices and maybe even some upward movement in the most desirable neighborhoods.

From the Manteca Bulletin:

Stockton-Manteca-Modesto was among the very first regions to feel the impacts of loose lending standards. This area led the nation for more months than anyone else when it came to foreclosures. It is also expected to be the first to pull out of it. The reason why the region was first going into the mess and will be the first coming out is due to growth.

The worst is either over or close to it in Manteca. That doesn’t mean there won’t be more foreclosures — there will be. It doesn’t mean prices are going to start climbing again any time soon nor does it mean that retail is going to bounce back overnight. We took a huge punch in the gut of the economy — housing — but we’re getting up for the next round and are still a strong contender. That’s not the case elsewhere.

From Housing Wire:

[H]ousing has some serious correcting to do yet ahead of it...If you want to know which markets are going to bleed most heavily through this year, then, you need look no further than those markets that are already mostly underwater relative to home equity.
...
The nation’s most troubled housing market by this measure would be the town of Tracy, Calif., in San Joaquin County....Ensconced by the 95391 ZIP code, a full 88.7 percent of outstanding mortgage debt in this area is estimated to be underwater, with 91.5 percent of all mortgages ranking as “near negative equity” by First American CoreLogic.
...
Coming in at number four? Rancho Cordova, Calif., home to the 95742 ZIP code and part of Sacramento County in Northern California — 84.3 percent of the 2,099 mortgages in the ZIP have reached a negative equity position, CoreLogic’s data showed, while an additional 83 mortgages are considered “near” negative equity as well...[Y]et another NorCal property disaster waiting to unfold.

From the CVBT:

A very grim outlook for employment in the Central Valley is found today a study [pdf] prepared for the U.S. Conference of Mayors. It predicts that by the end of the year, unemployment rates will be as high as 17.5 percent in Merced. But the report says every major metro area in the Valley will be in double digits, with more than 36,000 jobs being lost over the next 12 months.
...
The largest job loss [in the Central Valley] is predicted for the Sacramento metro area – 17,900 jobs. It is estimated that will put unemployment at 10.0 percent.

From LA Land:

Because housing is just one part of an increasingly dismal economic picture -- add to that the giant budget problems here in California -- I scratch my head every time I read a prediction that California housing prices could stop their decline in 2009. I just think there are too many factors in the big picture for a quick bounce back.

From the Sacramento Bee:

The current economic downturn has created a window of opportunity for people looking to remodel their homes and who can still afford the investment. Skilled crafts-people – once too busy for small projects – are looking for work. Lumber is bargain priced.
...
"There's never been a better time to remodel," said [George] Henley, who has been in the home construction business for 30 years. Henley and many other local contractors have experienced the ups and downs of the building market before. "It was bad in 1980, again in 1990, but never this bad," he said. "Business might slow down for building new homes, but remodeling usually stayed steady. Now, we're seeing a slowdown for remodelers, too."

From the Sacramento Bee:

Surprisingly, [St. Joseph statute seller Philip] Cates acknowledged Thursday that "sales are a little bit flat. We're wondering if people aren't talking about it anymore, or if people are light with the $10."

Home Front noted one possibility: banks, dumping repossessed properties, now account for three-fourths of home sales in Sacramento. Presumably, St. Joseph isn't part of their corporate tool kits.

From the Sacramento Bee:

"The breaking point is property value," said Kevin Baker, supervisory special agent of the financial crime squad at Sacramento's Federal Bureau of Investigation. "If it goes stagnant and declines, that's when fraud comes to the surface," Baker said. Reports of mortgage fraud from financial institutions to Sacramento's FBI office increased from 500 in 2005 to more than 3,000 in 2008, Baker said. Based on 2008 figures, the Sacramento region ranks fifth nationally in the number of mortgage fraud cases.

From the Modesto Bee:

Home values in many Northern San Joaquin Valley communities have declined more than 60 percent since the housing boom peaked three years ago. "This has been very, very difficult on our residents," said Rick Robinson, Stanislaus County's chief executive officer. "We were not a wealthy community to begin with." Robinson recalled how Stanislaus enjoyed unprecedented growth before 2006, "then our world collapsed."
...
Besides first-time buyers taking advantage of bargain prices and near-record low interest rates, [PMZ real estate agent Judi] Alves said, investors are scooping up foreclosures. "The average Joe now has an opportunity to become an investor and to add a rental home to their retirement portfolio," Alves said.

'Nothing Left To Trim'

From the Sacramento Business Journal:

Angel Ahumada, founder of recruiting firm Integrity International Partners of Rancho Cordova that recruits professionals for the building industry, said homebuilding companies have pared down staffs and combined offices as much as possible. “I think that 2009 will be a survival year for everyone in the housing market,” he said. “Layoffs are finished and office consolidations are over with — there is nothing left to trim. I heard from one of my senior executive contacts that he sees ‘large storm clouds ahead’ for them.”
...
[Gregory Group's Greg] Paquin admitted he hasn’t been able to accurately call the bottom of the housing market, as housing sales appeared to bottom out at various points during the past two years. “I was joking with some people this morning that it was probably the lowest since there’s been a capital in Sacramento,” he said of the fourth-quarter figures. “That’s probably not true, but the reality is no one’s buying.”

From the Sacramento Bee:

GreenFiber LLC, a manufacturer of natural fiber insulation, on Tuesday closed its plant in Sacramento, citing the decline in the local housing market and decreased demand for its products. The company said the 26 employees working at the plant...received severance pay.

From the Sacramento Bee:

It's approaching crunch time for Circuit City Stores Inc. and Fresno's Gottschalks Inc., two troubled retail chains whose possible demise would add to the miseries of Sacramento's commercial real estate market..."We're going to see more of this," said George Whalin of Retail Management Consultants in San Marcos. "We're just getting started."
...
The region's shopping center vacancy rate, pegged at 8.8 percent in the third quarter of 2008, will probably peak at around 11 percent sometime this fall, said research director Garrick Brown of broker Colliers International's Sacramento office...Rents have fallen by a third in some areas of Sacramento.

From the Sacramento Bee:

J.C. Penney's decision to close its Carmichael call center on March 20 will cost 260 local jobs and put a dent in the Sacramento area's recent reputation as a call-center magnet...At the dawn of the decade, Sacramento was being hailed as a call-center mecca. From 1996 through mid-2001, about 40 centers set up shop in the Sacramento area, according to the Sacramento Area Commerce and Trade Organization.
...
Layne Holley, managing editor of publications with the Colorado Springs, Colo.-based International Customer Management Institute (ICMC), said Monday that call centers are a likely cutting point for retailers amid the recession.

From the Stockton Record:

The median sales price fell to $133,000 in Stockton and $165,000 countywide...In Stockton, that has meant a 47 percent drop in prices in 12 months alone, from $250,000 in December 2007 to $133,000 last month, according to figures from the Grupe Real Estate-TrendGraphix monthly sales report....Foreclosures continue to dominate the existing home market, accounting for 84 percent of all December sales.
...
"Median sales prices may go lower, but they can't go much lower," he [Mike Collins of Collins Realty in Stockton] said. "Some people pay that much for a high-end luxury car."

From the Associated Press (hat tip DJ/SMF)

The number of people leaving California for another state outstripped the number moving in from another state during the year ending on July 1, 2008. California lost a net total of 144,000 people during that period — more than any other state, according to census estimates.
...
Financial adviser Barry Hartz lived in California for 60 years and once ran for state Assembly before relocating with his wife last year to Colorado Springs, Colo., where his son's family had moved. "The saddest thing I saw was the escalation of home prices to the point our kids, when they got married, could not live in the community where they lived and grew up," Hartz says. "Some people call that progress."

From News10:

"It's getting too expensive for us to live here. We just can't afford it," said Cathy Hawkins of Sacramento. The Hawkins are moving from California for an area that's more affordable to live..."We just lost our house to foreclosure and I recently lost my job," said Daniel Hawkins.

Fortune on Sacramento Real Estate: 5th-Worst Market in 2009

Fortune Magazine says the Sacramento real estate market will be the 5th-worst market in 2009, with the median home price projected to decline 22%. However, Fortune expects prices to rise in 2010, albeit only 2%. (hat tip DJ)

High jobless rates and low population growth are helping burst the capital city's inflated housing market.

Stockton is #2.

From the Sacramento Bee:

[Average Buyer:] Back then (early 2007) I interviewed several agents. They all said the same thing: "Oh, it's just going to kind of ebb a little bit and go down." I'm thinking, "How can that be?"...That's when I kind of went looking for alternative answers and the experts in the field. That's when I found some of the other regional blogs and found an alternative view.

[Jim Wasserman:] What was that?

[Average Buyer:] They were more bearish on the market. They were saying things which were not mainstream at all at that point. That was the point before Wall Street, before pundits started acknowledging that things were going to happen. I read the Wall Street Journal every day. In August 2007 everyone was saying, "Oh, it's just a little shaky. Things are good now." Then it was spring (2008) and we start losing Bear Stearns. And it was, "Oh, we're over it now and we're into summer." They just keep having this false sense of delusion.

From the Sacramento Business Journal:

Not everybody is a fan of Sacramento’s vacant building ordinance, which was approved in August 2007. “The city is creating a perfect storm for themselves with this new ordinance,” said Bruce Slaton, a real estate agent who works in south Sacramento. “If a house has $20,000 in fees and $30,000 in fines on a property that’s worth $40,000, the deal just doesn’t work,” he said. “The city might end up getting a lot of these handed to them by the banks.”

In some cases, he said, potential sales of foreclosed homes don’t work because the house was cited for violating the city’s dangerous or vacant building codes. “By the time the banks get these homes back from the trustee sale, they’ve got thousands of dollars of fines and fees on them,” which some banks try to pass through to the buyer, Slaton said. “And if the city doesn’t relax some of these fees, it precludes a lot of buyers from doing anything with them.”

From the Sacramento Business Journal:

The Sacramento Metropolitan Statistical Area, which includes Sacramento, Arden-Arcade and the Roseville area, saw its occupancy fall to 93.8 percent in the third quarter compared to 94.3 percent in third-quarter 2007, according to TRI Commercial’s apartment advisory team.

From the Sacramento Bee:

Five Sacramento County ZIP codes had median sales prices below $100,000 in November, according to property researcher MDA DataQuick.

From the Modesto Bee:

"It comes down to just the sheer volume of problem loans in your area," said Rick Sharga, senior vice president of RealtyTrac, which monitors foreclosures nationwide. Sharga predicted the [Northern San Joaquin Valley] region will continue to lead the country in foreclosures through 2009.
...
Mike Zagaris, president of Modesto-based PMZ Real Estate...is concerned that many current owners are giving up their homes because they've lost so much equity. "I'm being told by my people in the trenches that the vast majority of those facing foreclosures now have no interest in redoing their loans. They just want out," Zagaris said. "If that's true, there's no stopping these foreclosures."

From the Modesto Bee:

The recession dug deeper into Stanislaus County last month, sending the jobless rate to a nearly 10-year high of 12.4 percent, the state reported Friday. It was the county's highest monthly rate since the 12.8 percent of January 1999 and the worst November since the 12.5 percent in 1997.
...
The collapse of the housing market in the past three years bears much of the blame. Real estate agents, builders and people in related businesses have lost jobs. "Those industries, of course, are related to the housing and credit crisis," said Liz Baker, a labor market analyst for the EDD.
...
Still, the overall numbers...are well down from the early and mid-1990s, when unemployment sometimes hit the high teens.

Uh-oh. Last time the media said something was not as bad as the 1990s, all hell broke loose.

From the Modesto Bee:

The Northern San Joaquin Valley has been hit especially hard in the economic downturn because of foreclosures and other fallout from the housing market collapse. Agriculture and related fields have been relatively strong, but even they can be hit by the economy's troubles. Roberts Ferry Nut Co., which sells almonds and other items in Christmas gift packages, has seen a roughly 15 percent drop, co-owner Dan Mallory said. "I just don't think the consumer has the same buying power as before," he said.

From the Associated Press:

Robert Ecker was bored with retirement, so he went back to work as a housing appraiser in Stockton. He trained four other appraisers during the real estate boom — all of them are now out of the business. "Since the real estate market closed down, I grew a beard and now I'm doing this," said Ecker, dressed in the trademark red suit with white trim. "The older kids are asking for clothes now, rather than gifts," he said. "Most of them are asking for one gift."

From Stockton to Miami, from ritzy Las Vegas to gritty Detroit, cities with the worst real estate markets led the U.S. economy into recession. Skidding home prices and soaring foreclosures have magnified the broader woes of unemployment, stock market turmoil and hard-to-get loans. Holiday shoppers are making a list, checking it twice, and then scratching off the nonessentials.

Ding Dong - DataQuick: Price Drop Exceeds 50% Off Peak; Unemployment Tops 8%

From the Sacramento Bee:

MDA DataQuick said Thursday, the median sale price for a home in Sacramento County dropped to $185,000 last month. That was the lowest level since September 2001 and represented a $10,000 drop in one month. Prices have fallen $105,000, or 36 percent, in a year...The DataQuick numbers show that the median sale price in Sacramento County has fallen by 52 percent from the August 2005 peak of $387,000.
...
In a normal market, when sales are hot at the low end, it filters up to more expensive homes. Someone sells a starter home and then moves up to fancier digs, raising the prices for expensive properties. But when the sellers of low-end homes are mainly banks, there's no such upward pressure on the pricier homes, [DataQuick's Andrew] LePage said.
...
"There's really no better time to buy than right now," [John] Arvanitis...of Sunshine Vista Mortgage Co. in Citrus Heights...said.

Data by county
Data by zip

Related post: Ding Dong - YOY Price Declines Arrive in Sacramento

From the Sacramento Business Journal:

The Sacramento-area’s jobless rate increased to the highest level in almost 15 years, as construction companies continued to cut payroll and a less-than-cheery holiday season created fewer temporary positions in November, according to a report released Friday. The four-county region’s jobless rate increased to 8.1 percent last month, compared to 7.9 percent in October and 5.6 percent in November 2007, according to the state Employment Development Department. It’s the highest rate since 8.4 percent in February 1994.

SacBee: Unemployment by county

More waves...From the Sacramento Bee:

Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger's administration is telling labor unions that it will order two-day-a-month unpaid furloughs for state employees beginning in February to help the state save cash amid its budget crisis. Bruce Blanning, executive director of the Professional Engineers in California Government, said he received a call this morning from Department of Personnel Administration officials informing the union of the impending executive order...The furloughs would apply to all general fund and special fund employees and amount to about a 10 percent pay cut....The unpaid furloughs would begin in February and continue through June 2010....

DPA officials told Blanning the governor would seek a 10 percent elimination of jobs in the state workforce, which could result in thousands of layoffs.

From the Sacramento Bee:

When the housing market soared in Sacramento a few years ago, many cities, counties and school districts hiked fees for a new house, with some soaring into the $80,000s and $90,000s...What did $90,000 matter if a house sold for $470,000 or more to a buyer using exotic financing?...[M]uch of the new home market is [now] back in the $200,000s. At those prices, builders say, the fees make it hard to break even.
...
On Tuesday, Woodland became the first city in the region – and possibly first in the state, according to the California Building Industry Association – to...rethink impact fees in light of a devalued housing market. Typically, builders pay about $90,000 in city, county and school fees to build a house in Woodland. But with a 4-0 vote, the City Council cut its $69,000 fee to $54,000 – a 20 percent discount of $15,000 per house.

From the Sacramento Bee:

The Sacramento region's population growth rate continued to drop during 2008, falling to its lowest level in more than a decade, according to state figures released Wednesday.
...
People tend to move when they see opportunities. At the beginning of the decade, many looked to California and thought they had a better shot here than elsewhere, said Howard Roth, the state's chief economist. Now, they may compare California to their home state and think, "Why bother?" That trend occurred in Sacramento County, too, where about 3,000 more people left for other areas than arrived from them, state figures show.
...
[A]long with the rash of foreclosed homes, low growth eases demands on the housing market, bad news for homeowners but good news for home buyers.

From the Sacramento Business Journal:

The real estate decline that has hurt homebuilders is also punishing nurseries that grow plants for the new yards...Several growers in Southern California have talked about grinding up plants and using them for potting soil, he said. One large grower, who has more than 200 acres of plants, might grind up 15 acres.

From the Wall Street Journal:

Rio Vista began to see the trouble last year, when property-tax revenue began to falter...Rio Vista has cut a third of its city workers and slashed its recreation budget to $29,000 from about $250,000. The city is looking into selling more than 100 acres of its land for revenue.
...
Isleton's city manager, Bruce Pope, says the town owes $950,000 for an assortment of services including trash pickup and electricity. With Isleton's operating budget of about $1 million, interest on unpaid bills could overpower the city's budget, he says. Some county leaders are pressuring Mr. Pope to dissolve Isleton. But the town, with about 1,000 residents, doesn't have the money to cover the fees to do so, he says.

Weekend reading [pdf] (with lots of fun data) via Calculated Risk.

Stockton: $250,000 Off Peak

From the Stockton Record:

TrendGraphix said the median sales price fell from $190,000 in October to $175,000 last month in San Joaquin County. That compares with a $200,000 sales mark in January 2002, when TrendGraphix began tracking sales as the market was well into the start of a six-year boom.

That's a whopping $250,000 price cut from its $425,000 peak in September 2005.



From CNNMoney:

The worst performing market in the nation [according to Zillow.com] was Stockton, Calif. The average home price there plunged 32.3% year-over-year to $210,179 in the first three quarters of 2008. Almost as bad were nearby Merced, down 31.2% to $167,282, and Modesto, was was off 30.4% to $197,368 in the same time period.

[Zillow's Stan] Humphries expressed surprise that these areas are still performed so poorly. "I would have thought that they would have produced some more positive trends by now," he said, "but we are seeing no slowdown."

From the Christian Science Monitor:

The housing market in California's Central Valley...is showing signs of new life...Buyers are out in force. Here in Lathrop, Calif., and in nearby Stockton – the nation's foreclosure capital – home prices could be bottoming out..."At this point, I don't think you'll see more price declines in Stockton," [says ForeclosureRadar's Sean O'Toole].
...
A recent NAR survey found 20 percent of buyers are investors, but Stockton-area real estate agents put the investor share at one-third or more...The pricing floor provided by these investors, however, has broken through several times when the number of new listings exceeded the ability of investors to absorb them, he [real estate agent Jim Muthart] says.
...
Strong rent prices are key to a good return, and rents have softened recently, says Muthart...[D]on't assume each foreclosure equals a new renter, argues Caroline Latham, CEO of RealFacts, a rental data-tracking firm. Many families who are foreclosed on will move in with another family or move to a cheaper region, not rent. "We are seeing a return to the notions that [investors] had in 2005," warns Ms. Latham, referring to the buying frenzy in the run-up to the housing bubble peak. "They think they'll be able to rent it and come out smelling good."

'It's sort of a Hail Mary pass'

From Inman News:

In Sacramento, Calif., the price per square foot fell 31.9 percent from September 2007 to September 2007, according to Radar Logic.

From the Sacramento Bee:

Is the foreclosure phenomenon at last beginning to peak in California? Home Front is hearing rumblings that October saw a "meaningful decline" in various foreclosure filings for the first time in two years. The familiar industry trackers – MDA DataQuick, ForeclosureRadar and Foreclosures.com – all acknowledge the change...What does it mean? It's still early to speculate whether this might be the beginning of the end.
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"What we have seen over the last 60 days is a lot of announcements around foreclosure moratoriums and loan modification programs," said [Foreclosure Radar's Sean] O'Toole. He also cited Senate Bill 1137, which makes lenders try harder to talk with California borrowers before foreclosing. That legislation prompted a noticeable slowdown in notices of default as early as September.
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[A]n abundance of new loan modifications could be pushing the foreclosure problem out three to five years. "It's sort of like, 'let's put these people all in teaser rates and hope it goes away.' It's sort of a Hail Mary pass," he said.

From the Sacramento Bee:

Property owners -- facing rough economic times and a prolonged housing slump -- have been flooding area assessors' offices with appeals in the hope of getting their tax bills lowered. Monday was the final day for property owners to appeal the assessed value used to calculate this year's property tax bills, and preliminary estimates project near-record numbers of appeals. Sacramento County officials are expecting twice as many appeals as last year.
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Sacramento County reduced the assessed value on as many as 30 percent of residential units this year in the wake of the housing slump. The reductions translate to a loss of about $65 million in property tax revenue countywide, officials said.

From the Sacramento Business Journal:

[Roseville-based] real estate developer Kobra Properties — which owns more than 80 restaurants, corporate centers and other commercial properties mostly in Northern California — has filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy reorganization in Sacramento, citing a worsening economic recession, depressed real estate market and a “tumultuous” credit industry.

From the Sacramento Bee:

These are terrible times for the auto industry, and the impact shows up at places such as the Elk Grove Auto Mall. Sales are down, staffing is down, and the loss of two dealerships hurts the survivors. "It doesn't help the image of the auto mall to have two tenants gone," said David Johnson, general sales manager at Elk Grove Buick Pontiac GMC. "It doesn't help with consumer confidence." Johnson has cut his sales staff in half, eliminating six jobs.
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The numbers pay perverse tribute to Californians' other great love, real estate. Before the housing market crashed, 30 percent of California's new cars were bought with home-equity loans, according to CNW. That was triple the U.S. average. Now only 16 percent of California cars are purchased with home equity. "When the housing bubble burst … that just hammered car sales," [analyst Art] Spinella said.

From the Sacramento Bee:

[Howard] Roth [chief economist at the California Department of Finance] and economist Jeff Michael, of the University of the Pacific, said it's likely that California entered the recession sometime sooner than the rest of the country. It's possible that places like Sacramento, where the housing market seems to be stabilizing, could come out of it earlier, as well.

From the Sacramento Bee:

The family of Teresa Martinez, a preschool teacher in Stockton, is living proof of how the nation's economic storm is uprooting immigrants with family ties on both sides of the U.S.-Mexico border. While it's unclear if anecdotal evidence about Mexicans leaving the United States will eventually add up to a mass exodus, it is clear that those on the move aren't necessarily in this country illegally.

Martinez's two brothers are both legal U.S. residents who earned a good living, she said, working in trucking and construction during healthier economic times in California's Central Valley. About a year ago, when work dried up, both men decided to ride out the U.S. downturn south of the border, taking refuge in a cheaper, family-owned home in Mexico's northern Sonora state.

From the Stockton Record:

[Terry Hull Sr., Property Management Experts in Stockton]: Foreclosures have drastically impacted the economy of Stockton and the entire country. Sales prices have continued to go lower. However, shrewd investors are buying houses at these very low prices. Currently, there are too many rentals available, and it takes longer to find good tenants...I believe that we are beginning to see an overabundance of rental units, and eventually the vacancy factor will increase and rents may go lower.

From the Stockton Record:

Neighborhoods pummeled by the subprime mortgage debacle will start seeing a few new folks moving into foreclosed homes with help from federal funding on its way to San Joaquin County. On Tuesday, the Board of Supervisors approved a plan that would spread about $9 million in targeted areas across the county, primarily to snap up foreclosed properties, refurbish them and flip them to home buyers earning just about the median income.
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"We think it will have a positive effect, (but) there are larger market forces at work," said Steve Baker, a project specialist at the city's Community Development Department.

From the Stockton Record:

A $10,000 tax credit would provide just enough incentive to push fence sitters to become home buyers, according to Hanley Wood Market Intelligence, a real estate data and consulting firm.
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Yeah, but ... should we be building more new homes with so many existing homes on the market? Should we be handing out government tax credits for new-home buyers when thousands of California families are facing foreclosure? With virtually every segment of the economy struggling, how do we decide who gets help, who doesn't and how much?
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Whatever the form and eventual cost of an economic stimulus plan, it cannot cover everything. Some segments will be left out. A higher priority should be given to keeping families in their homes and not on building and selling new homes.

"Another Dubious Honor" - DataQuick: Sacramento Median Falls Below $200,000

From the Sacramento Bee:

October brought another dubious honor to the Sacramento County real estate market, as median home prices for new and existing homes combined dipped below $200,000 for the first time since April 2002. The symbolic drop -- to $195,000 -- came exactly one year after the county's median sales price for the same category fell below $300,000, according to MDA DataQuick statistics released today...[The] median price is 34.9 percent below Oct. 2007 and 49.6 percent below its Aug. 2005 high of $387,000.
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The Sacramento Association of Realtors reported that 73 percent of October sales in Sacramento County and the city of West Sacramento involved bank repos. Alan Wagner, SAR president said the pattern will last "well into the future" because many vacant bank-owned homes have yet to come to market.

From News10:

Many leasing agents can't understand why there are so many apartment units for rent across Solano County. "We expected to see a high occupancy rate due to the foreclosure crisis, but it never happened," said Katie Evans, a leasing agent at Riverstone Apartments in Suisun City.
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"Many people might be moving away or losing jobs or moving in with friends or family membvers to save cash," said Gloria Daskalakis at Dover Park Apartments in Fairfield.

From the AP (via News10):

High foreclosure rates and employee costs are forcing the Northern California city of Rio Vista to consider bankruptcy...[City Manager Hector] De La Rosa says Rio Vista could shut down within the next week....

DataQuick: Sacramento Unsold Repo Inventory Increasing

From Bloomberg:

Home prices fell in four out of every five U.S. cities in the third quarter, a record spurred by distressed foreclosure sales across the country. The median price of a U.S. home declined 9 percent from a year earlier....

The steepest price declines were all in California. The area surrounding San Bernardino had a 39 percent fall in its median home price to $227,200. Sacramento saw a 37 percent decline to $212,000, and San Diego had a 36 percent drop to $377,300. The U.S. median is $200,500.

From CNN Money:

"We're clearly seeing a broadening, as well as a deepening of the declines," [Mike] Larson [a real estate analyst at Weiss Research] said. "That indicates we've moved past the time when price drops were fed by bursting of real estate bubbles to one in which the broad economic downturn, marked by job losses, is taking hold."

From the Sacramento Business Journal:

Homebuyers snatched up repossessed homes at an impressive clip this year, but that doesn’t mean the Sacramento region’s housing troubles are easing. That’s because lenders might be foreclosing on homes faster than they can sell them.
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[T]he inventory of foreclosed homes isn’t dropping. The backlog of unsold repossessed homes has actually grown in the past year, to about 5,000. That number includes homes repossessed over a two-year span prior to Aug. 1 that didn’t sell by Oct. 20 (allowing a reasonable period to spruce up and market them for sale). The backlog has increased from about 3,300 at the same time last year, DataQuick said.
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Not all repossessed homes make it quickly to market. Only about 3,100 foreclosed homes were listed for sale through MetroList as of the end of October, even though the backlog of unsold foreclosures is 5,081 homes. Those homes will eventually make their way to the market.
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At least one national bank is looking to rent some of its repossessed homes rather than sell them. HomePointe Property Management, a Sacramento company that typically manages rental properties, just signed a contract to rent out “a handful” of foreclosed properties throughout the region.

From the Sacramento Bee (hat tip patient renter):

Sacramento County's lowest-income neighborhoods continue to take the toughest, most destabilizing punches of the region's two-year foreclosure crisis, says a new report from the Sacramento Housing and Redevelopment Agency. And it's getting worse. "Foreclosures are continuing to increase," said Joel Riphagen, SHRA redevelopment analyst.
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Now, many of the region's lowest-income neighborhoods have seen huge spikes in sales as home prices have fallen. Investors are snapping up homes formerly occupied by owners with intent of renting them.

From the Sacramento Business Journal:

I think they [lenders] had continued to underestimate the problem up until very recently. The other part of it is, I go in with a reasonable approach. What I’m hearing from people I know at lending institutions is that the number of people asking for modifications, some sort of help, is somewhere around 80 percent of their customers, but the number of people who actually qualify for that help is closer to 30 to 35 percent.
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Some people with a fixed-rate mortgage read about modifications being available, so they would like to see their interest rate modified downward. There’s not much the bank can do for those people.

From the CVBT:

Residents of the Central Valley are frustrated and angry that so little impact has been seen from the Wall Street bailout, says U.S. Rep. Dennis Cardoza, D-Merced, who is criticizing Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson of foot dragging.
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Mr. Cardoza says he “reluctantly” supported the $700 billion banker bailout only after guarantees were included in the legislation that taxpayers would be protected and the foreclosure crisis would be averted.

From the CVBT:

The thousands of homes lost to foreclosure and the resulting depression of home prices are beginning to make California bit more affordable...The Sacramento region and Stanislaus County were the second- and third most-affordable metro areas in California with 59.9 percent and 59.7 percent affordability, respectively.
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The building industry argues that today’s relatively high affordability levels are likely to be a short-lived phenomenon after the market correction is completed as underlying demographic trends point to rising prices in the future once the large supply of foreclosed homes is sold. “The increase in affordability is great news for people who are looking and who qualify to buy a home in the current market, and we definitely encourage those people to do so and take advantage of the low prices while they last,” says Robert Rivinius, CBIA’s president and CEO.

From the Sacramento Business Journal:

The rough and tumble economy did not spare Sacramento-area banks in the third quarter despite the more cautious nature of community-owned banks. Only three of 11 area banks earned more through the first three quarters of the year than they did during the same nine-month period in 2007...In the aggregate, locally based banks earned $12.9 million through the first nine months, down 52.6 percent from earnings for the same period last year.
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In a normal market, people pay off a home-equity loan because they could otherwise lose their home. In the current market, people have already lost their home, and there is little or nothing for the bank that made the equity loan to recover.

From the Manteca Bulletin:

Closing schools to weather the deepening budget crisis is among 100 ideas being scrutinized by Manteca Unified...The double whammy of declining enrollment due to the foreclosure crisis coupled with the state's mid-year deficit projection that has ballooned to $28 billion has opened the door to such a move.

From CBS13:

No too long ago, Elk Grove was booming with growth. In fact, it was fastest growing city in the country at one time. Tonight, it's forced to pay the price for the nation's faltering economy. The city took a big hit today with another dealership closure. Customers who bought at Elk Grove Saturn came back for a tune-up today to find their dealership closed.

From the Sacramento Bee:

AAA said gas fell another penny in Sacramento on Monday to $2.24 a gallon, the cheapest it's been since May 2004...If prices hold, that translates into savings of more than $2.5 billion a month across the state. But that's more than offset by the fallout from the housing crash. So-called "equity extractions" in California – the dollars generated by home equity loans, refinancing or outright sales – have fallen by $41 billion this year, according to researcher MDA DataQuick.

Not surprisingly, Californians aren't suddenly reopening their wallets. "We're doing the same things that we did when gas was almost $5," said Marty Walter of Orangevale during a stop at a Union 76 station in Roseville on Monday. "We're getting into the pattern of saving – let's not do anything unless we have to." Cori Brown, pumping $15 worth of fuel into her 1996 Ford Explorer at a Chevron station on Richards Boulevard, feels the pinch. Until food and rent decline as much as gas, "it doesn't make a whole lot of difference," she said. "This is a depression, and I'm living through it."