Wednesday, February 22, 2006

Placer Pops - YoY Depreciation Era Begins?

Sorry San Diego (3.67%). Sorry Marin (1.30%).

It looks like Placer County wins the race to 0%. According to DataQuick News, the median sale price in Placer County dropped -0.38% in January 2006 compared with the prior January. (This includes single family homes, condos, and new home sales.) Placer County includes some of Sacramento's eastern suburbs, including cities such as Roseville, Rocklin, and Lincoln.

According to DataQuick, Placer is the only listed county in California to suffer year-over-year depreciation in January.

Caveats: January is supposedly a "quirky" month and Placer is a relatively small market (and therefore the numbers fluctuate more than larger markets such as Sacramento County). But even so, how long has it been since any county in California experienced year-over-year depreciation? Are we finally in "hard landing" territory? Can we now officially declare that the "bubble" has burst? Stay tuned...

9 comments:

Out at the peak said...

And so it begins.

Rob Dawg said...

Most of the increase last year was in the numbers by June. Expect Marin to turn negative Mar or April. The first of the high priced coastals to turn. By summer we should see Sacyo and Fresno amd maybe San Diego. Personally anyone who wants to believe my house appreciated 20.57% last year can write me a check right now.

arizonadude said...

Placer county is way overpriced now. I have lived there since 1982 and seen the place turn into an overpriced mess. They are claiming they have the lowest poverty rate around. Well they ran all they lower income people out because they wouldn't build any homes. The local governments are screwing people on permit fees. Seems like when they propose a new development everyone freaks about cutting an oak tree. It seems the people who live there want to limit supply so there homes will go up in value fast.

Anonymous said...

-0.3% YoY is hard landing? hahah

Lander said...

Ah yes, welcome to the Craiglisters!

Rob Dawg said...

-0.3% is a leading indicator. Understand, we are in froth blow off territory. There will be all kinds of contradictory data over the next few months. The median is likely to continue to rise a little as market makeup sold shifts higher because the bottom properties sit unsold for instance. Here's what is going to go down way down with no question; dollar value of all transactions and number sold.

Marinite said...

I won't officially declare the bubble bust in Marin until after the Spring selling dissapointment happens (if it happens that is...I try to have an open mind, I really do).

Marinite
Marin Real Estate Bubble

Lander said...

Welcome NYTimes.com readers.

sf jack said...

If I'm not mistaken, Squaw Valley, Alpine Meadows, Tahoe City and much of the north shore of the Lake are also in Placer County.

Hmmm... resort areas - taking it on the chin as leading indicators?!