Friday, March 24, 2006

"Shock" & Awe in Elk Grove: "What is Happening?"

The sudden turn in the housing market is catching the attention of the Elk Grove School District, according to the Elk Grove Citizen (links change often).

A somewhat shocked school board listened to a staff report projecting a dramatic dip in enrollment at the middle and high school levels. Five of the high schools will be below the board's goal of 2,200 students at each high school campus. Christine Penna, associate superintendent for secondary education, said the under-enrollment in the majority of high schools and middle schools for the 2005-06 school year will result in the need to reduce staffing significantly at the start of the school year.

[A]nother factor is the slowing of the new housing building and also a decline in the numbers of high school students coming from even the new homes. The school staff anticipated a growth of about 3,000 students each year and this slowed considerably.

Board Member Bill Lugg said he was "shocked" at the report, asking "Is this a temporary glitch?" He asked Constantine Baranoff, Associate Superintendent for Facilities, "what is happening?" Baranoff said that slower growth in the housing market was the main factor. Some of the board members even suggested slowing down the building of the new high school and middle school in the new Madera Planned Community (formally Laguna Ridge.) Baranoff said that Franklin High and Johnson Middle School are impacted. The Madera community plan has 30,000 new homes and he felt any delay in the new south area high school would add to the crowding of those campuses.

Superintendent Steven Ladd said he had consulted with a group of veteran realtors and they said they expected a short flattening out of the new housing market, but then it will be back at a steady growth, but not the explosive growth the district had experienced in the last five years.
A prior post on this subject is here. Meanwhile, a local Elk Grove blogger discusses the impact of declining prices on the city of Elk Grove's coffers:
Much like the cocky young man looking to pick a fight, the city eventually is going to run into a problem and the problem is now appearing on almost every street in the community - houses for sale with the now ever-present "Price Reduced" placard.
Last July, the blogger had this observation about the Elk Grove housing bubble.

Finally, the Elk Grove Citizen reports that the city of Elk Grove is recommending the approval of a condo-conversion proposal that will add 432 units to Elk Grove's rapidly expanding housing inventory.


crisp&cole said...

Relying on realtors for your economic analysis??? LMAO. I'm sure most of these realtors are only high school gradutes and former fast food employees.

Happy Renter said...

That A10 warthog at the air show was great wasn't it.

Rob Dawg said...

One of the dirty little secrets of Propositon 13 could come quickly and take a huge bite from property revenues. While Proposition 13 limits to one-and-a-half percent property tax increases, it does not limit the downward movement.

The increase is limited to TWO percent and the successful appeal for a lowered basis is only temporary. When prices return you go right back on the 1% plus 2% increase per year track.