Wednesday, July 26, 2006

A 'Balanced Market?' Try $230,900.

From the Sacramento Business Journal:

Homes in Sacramento are 59 percent overpriced, according to a recent analysis. Sacramento trailed only six cities -- five of which are in California -- in a study of 100 housing markets by Local Market Monitor, which compared selling price to "equilibrium values." The equilibrium value was compiled based on such factors as economic and population growth, vacancy rates and construction costs. The report found the median price of a home in Sacramento to be $366,900, compared to an equilibrium price of $230,900, a 59 percent difference in price.
CNN has a nice chart here. Hat tip NNJ RE Bubble.

Another study lumps Sacramento into the top 10 coldest markets in the country.
Veros has released the results of its quarterly forecasting of the nation's real estate markets, revealing the top 10 hottest and coldest markets for the next 12 months...The markets that show the least home price appreciation over the next 12 months are expected to be: Rochester, -4%; Worchester, -2%; Sacramento, -2%; Memphis, -1%; Dayton, -1%; Grand Rapids, 0%; Boston, 0%; Cleveland, 0%; Detroit, 0%; and Fall River, MA, 0%.


rocklin renter said...


Man I can't wait!!!!! :)

Rob Dawg said...

Worcester, not Worchester. Anyway, Sacto at -2% and one of the worst? It is to laugh. There may be a few month over month 2% declines but for the next 12 months Capital City should feel like they dodged a bullet with anything less than a 10% decline.

drwende said...

I did an analysis of W. Sacto houses between 1300 and 1699 sq ft [there are reasons for that sample, long story] and found that for the past three months [the only reliable timeframe, as people often change realtors when a 90-day contract expires with no sale] -- asking prices dropped an average of 1.04% every two weeks.

This includes both apparently new listings and dropped prices from Zip Realty's database.

That 2.08% a month adds up to over a 25% loss for the year, potentially. And... having finished this last Thursday, by this Tuesday, I was seeing listings with a 4.5% decline from my prior estimates. So the decline in asking prices may be accelerating.

Alas, I needed to match price to square footage, so I couldn't use actual sale prices from the Sacto Bee's database, as they don't give the square footage. So real sale prices may be somewhat off from my numbers. But the trend is still alarming.