Elk Grove: From Hot to Cold

More news on the so-called fastest growing city in America. From the Sacramento Bee:

On 1,900 wide-open acres, where valley oaks and grasslands make a spectacular setting during winter fog and summer sunsets, developers plan nearly 8,000 more homes, a civic center and five schools for one of California's fastest-growing cities. But this time builders are facing an entirely different experience. East Franklin was built on the boom; Laguna Ridge is beginning as that boom rapidly recedes into history. "We would have loved to be in the market two years ago," said Laguna Ridge project manager John Hodgson, president of the Hodgson Co. in Sacramento...

In their contrasts, East Franklin and Laguna Ridge represent a microcosm of the capital region. Builders who sold 17,155 single-family homes at the height of the 2004 boom in El Dorado, Placer, Sacramento, Sutter, Yolo and Yuba counties will consider themselves fortunate this year to sell 12,000. Statewide, developers expect to build as few as 170,000 residences this year, compared with 213,000 in 2005.

In Elk Grove, builders who took out almost 3,000 building permits in East Franklin in 2004 now expect to sell no more than 500 homes -- if that -- a year at Laguna Ridge. A dream hatched in Elk Grove during a building boom that created fortunes and made heads spin may actually take up to 10 years to build out, after all.

"You go back two, three years, the anticipation was Laguna Ridge would be as fast as East Franklin," said Constantine Baranoff, who as associate superintendent of facilities and planning at the Elk Grove Unified School District is charged with forecasting where the growing district will build its schools. "All the hype, all the discussion, all the confidence level was just as significant. People said, 'There's no letup. People are moving and moving and moving.' "

That's all changed. Now the district, which expects about 6,500 students at five Laguna Ridge schools, has delayed opening its first high school in the area until autumn 2008. The original date was 2007...

The city also has set a limit on home building -- 1,200 permits a year. The idea is to maintain an orderly development pace in contrast to the big bang that built East Franklin. If current market trends prevail, remaining within that limit clearly will not be an issue. As the Laguna Ridge infrastructure work continues, the school district's Baranoff watches and waits. He says he'll set his timetables for new elementary schools "once I see the houses." At the moment, he said, "The only significant marketing I've seen is by Del Webb. And I don't think we'll get too many kids out of that."