Wednesday, September 20, 2006

Analyst: Sacramento Proving Price Declines Possible Without Severe Job Losses

The Sacramento Bee has Dataquick's August numbers. For the third month, Sacramento suffered a year-over-year median price decline.

Median sales prices for all homes and condominiums rose slightly in five of eight Sacramento-area counties from July to August, according to figures released Tuesday by DataQuick Information Systems of La Jolla. The company reported price increases in Amador, El Dorado, Sacramento, Sutter and Yuba counties, ranging from 0.3 percent in Sacramento to 10.5 percent in Amador. Prices fell in Nevada [-1.9], Placer [-4.3%] and Yolo [-5%] counties...

But though nearly 3,700 buyers took the plunge in August, the region's median sales prices largely continued their downward drift compared with a year ago, sometimes sharply. At $448,000, the median sales price -- the point at which half the homes sell for more and half for less -- was 12 percent lower in Placer County than August 2005. The Yolo County price of $419,000 was 8 percent lower than the same time last year, and the $362,000 median sales price in Sacramento County was 6 percent lower. Prices were also down in Sutter, Yuba and Nevada counties. Prices were higher in Amador and El Dorado counties.

DataQuick analyst Andrew LePage said those drops lead California's major urban counties. "Sacramento is proving you can have some kind of correction absent severe job losses," he said. The summerlong price declines played out against a 4.2 percent unemployment rate and the addition of 18,100 jobs during the past year.

6 comments:

chuck said...

Median this
Median that

estimate what your house was worth last year

put your house on the market,

IF it sells, and that IF is a pretty big ONE, your house will be worth from 25% to 40% of the value last year...and it might have dropped MORE...

Guaranteed!

rocklin renter said...

Chuck - AGREED.

We can talk about median till we are blue in the face.

BUT

The only thing that matters is the market. How much can you get in a reasonable amount of time = the REAL VALUE of your home.

PS: Zillow is probably way, way off (possibly by a hundred thousand OR MORE), so don't bother going there to check.

Anonymous said...

Median Schmedian.

Most of the fools in real estate don't understand statistics.

All an increase in the median price means is that there are more higher end homes coming on the market. This means all those idiots that bought in 2004 at the peak with wacko loans are now facing massive increases in their monthly payments and need to get out from under the alligator.

Take a house, estimate its value two years ago and now (just like the flippers in trouble blog).

The market is in the toilet and alot of people are too stupid to know it.

Liars tell lies with numbers.

JR said...

chuck said...

Median this Median that.......
"25% to 40% of the value last year"

Chuck, I believe you mean "'off' the value last year"....

I can agree we have lost 20% of the value, maybe 25% of the value, but we have not lost 60-75% of the value, as your statement implies.

Max said...

Liars tell lies with numbers.

Aside from this being another softball RE article from the Bee (which I think we've all come to expect by now), this looks to me more like a case of wishfull thinking than an outright lie.

Believe me, the pain being felt by the owners of the houses listed on my blog is much more real than any statistic can possibly capture. The Bee will catch on eventually.

Anonymous said...

All you have to do is look at sales price per square foot to develop a trend line.

What is the problem with the dumbbells in the real estate journalism field?

This ain't rocket science that we are talking about.

Median prices don't mean jack!