Thursday, September 21, 2006

Sacramento Region Median Prices - August 2006

DataQuick's just posted their August numbers for California. Placer County again leads the way down with a double-digit decline.

  • El Dorado: -0.21%
  • Placer: -14.40%
  • Sacramento: -4.41%
  • Yolo: -12.81%

This graph shows the percent change in median home prices for the Sacramento region's four counties. This includes resale single family residences and condos as well as new homes.


JR said...

I believe the prices have been dropping more and for a longer period than the median suggests. When the market turns down, all the best properties sell first. Even though they are selling for less, the typical buyer is still buying for the same total dollar amount they originally budgeted. They just get a much nicer house, and the published median price does not change.

NOW, the marginal properties are starting to sell, people are buying less expensive homes and picking off the fixers for sweat equity. So the median reflects some drop in values.

The weird thing will be after we hit the bottom in a few years, the median will still be dropping for another year.

Such is the fallacy of tracking this index.

The really wierd factor is why would ANYONE buy ANYTHING in this market. If you purchase a $400,000 house today, and it drops 25% in the next 24 months, you have lost $100,000! Think, think, think. Ask yourself is this market going to instantly recover and start appreciating 20% a year? Not a snowball's chance in Death Valley. Relax, take your time. Enjoy renting at 1/3 the price of owning, without risking all your equity. Save the difference and put it into your housing fund, so you can buy a much nicer home in 24 months.

tom stone said...

rent to own in west sonoma county is even more absurd,if the current owner of the home i lease gave it to me,taxes and insurance would be 75% of what i pay in rent(based on recent sales and listings of similar homes within 3/4 mile,this summer)i went over this with a neighbor who wanted to do a 1031 to avoid long term capital gain this spring.....well he hasn't been able to sell at the price he wanted in 6 months and the home has already lost 15% of its value,at least.we don't discuss real estate any more.

Anonymous said...

And remember, sheeple, there is no bubble -- that's just propaganda by lying bitter renters. So take my Option ARM with HELOC before prices can go up again! Because real estate has nowhere to go but UP UP UP UP UP!


Van Housing Blogger said...

Funny how those lines didn't just stop going down once they hit zero, like they were 'supposed to' according to the soft landing crowd.

rocklin renter said...

I agree with JR here.

Median price is a lagging indicator.

It will be good for statisticians to look at once the dust settles from this bust, but for a real-time indicator, it is not useful.

Well, not useful unless you are a realtor trying to spin the current state of the market.

Should I change my S/N to "bitter rocklin renter"? I don't feel very bitter right now!

Anonymous said...

Where are the price per square foot figures?

Should segment price / sq. ft. by housing size.

Median prices don't mean jack.

This is just another way for the industry to obscure the real pricing trends.

tom stone said...

it will be interesting to see how the sacramento decline affects the bay area.i know one loan broker who gave seminars on "mining your equity" to buy spec homes with 5% down,and neg am loans.i would estimate he did 150-200 neg am loans in the sacramento area alone in the last two years.he was doing 25-30 neg am loans a month all last year.charming guy,very positive.we got along like oil and water.jjj