Tuesday, October 10, 2006

California Housing Bubble Blogs

It's time for another field trip. A lot has changed since our last field trip over six months ago. We'll be sticking to the home state this time around. So climb aboard and brace yourself. You are about to enter the California BubbleZone. Emergency exit here.

Southern California Housing Bubble Blogs

"Newer" sites:

  • Irvine Housing Blog - Bubbles, crashes, and even some schadenfreude!

  • This Old House Flip - Investigating detailed examples of flippers attempting to quickly make a profit buying and selling the "American Dream" of owning a home in the San Diego County area.

  • OC FlipTrack - Tracking the housing bubble in Orange County with a strong focus on Irvine. Everyone wants to live here, there are many rich people here, real-estate never goes down, renting is for suckers, immigration is driving housing demand, OC jobs pay well, they aren't making any more land, and Gary "fifteen percent is pretty much in the bag for Orange County in 2006" Watts is my idol!
  • Forsaken Craft - A smorgasbord of housing bubble information, with an emphasis on the Inland Empire.
  • Real Estate Comments - Someday I'll buy a home in the South Bay area of Los Angeles. That will be after home prices get sane. Traditionally, homes in this area sell for 6X to 8X of median salaries (hey, its a nice area). In the bubble it reached up to ~10X. That's crazy and will correct.
The Veterans:
  • South Bay Beaches Housing Bubble - Your humble reporter is standing with jaw wide open watching the astronomical bubbleminiums being built in the South Bay area of Los Angeles, with bubbleminium prices to match. I'll do my best to capture the real estate mania in my neighborhood.
Back from the dead: Flip This

Suspended Animation: The Boy in the Big Housing Bubble

Northern California/Central Valley Housing Bubble Blogs


"Newer" sites:
The Veterans:
  • Marin Real Estate Bubble - A place for residents of Marin County, CA and others to express their views regarding the real estate bubble and in particular the Marin real estate market
  • Burbed - "Forget stock options...just give me a house!" SF Bay Area home price and mortgage insanity blog
Help Wanted: Fresno, Merced, Redding, and Chico

11 comments:

Anonymous said...

Thank you for your blog. I stumbled upon it today at work. I am being affected by this housing bubble in a different way. I am the only owner-occupant on our whole block of about ten homes. All of the homes have owners who live in the Bay Area and rent these units out. Nothing against renters but the tenant requirement for many of these absentee landlords is a pulse. So it leaves our neighborhood looking like the slums even though the homes are less than 2 years old. I'm thinking about starting my own blog dealing with the effects that real estate investors have on the establishment of a neighborhoods. Thanks again and keep up the good work.

Anonymous said...

Anon 7:47,

I am in the same position at the JTS Estates at Lincoln Crossing, except 90% of the homes are still vacant 9 months after completion. 140 homes and 90 are sold to bay area flippers, with 50 still owned by the builder (about 50 flippers cancelled their contracts and ran home). 4 or 5 homes are owner occupants, 15 are renters and the rest are vacant, awaiting greater fools with a bucket of money and a box of stupid. A lot of flippers are trying to dump their homes, but the builder is undercutting them by $200,000 and he isn't selling much at the new prices either. The flippers will have to rent or go to foreclosure or short sales. The monthly carry for the flippers is brutal with tax, ins, bonds and HOA costs totalling $1,000 to $1200/month. The homes are renting for $1500 to $2,200. The debt service on the $700,000 purchase prices is deadly.

So maybe you should count your blessings, in that you have some occupants providing cash flow to the neighborhood. I believe many of the homes here are headed to foreclosure. That could bring months of no upkeep, dead lawns, HOA shortfalls, etc. These are big houses, some at 4500 sf plus, so just wait until 6 college kids go in on a house for $400 each and then the fun will begin.

This just may be the start of a long road to deterioration in this neighborhood. I feel your pain.

Happy Renter said...

Anons,
You guys seem into this. Please get screen names.You can still be anonymous with a screen name.
Thank you

Anonymous said...

Excellent, Excellent...

But the RE collapse just seems to be part of a Perfect Storm

1. Balance of Trade so far out of whack that everybody owes China, Korea, Japan and India not only your shirt but your pants too

2. Federal Deficit

3. "They don't make it here anymore"...James McMurtry...jobs have gone offshore, even now engineering and design to India...It's the Walmart Economy where nobody makes anything useful, everybody just works for Toyota

4. USA is the most despised nation on the Planet, right up there with North Korea

5. As in the 19th Century Racism and Immigrant bashing has become the national pastime of the Redneck Bigots who inhabit a good portion of the USA

5. Housing deflation, the collapse of the Housing Market

Soros predicted the Housing Collapse...what does he say now?

Mel Gibson said...

Happy,

Sorry about not using a screen name earlier. I see that is somewhat annoying to you. I am choosing a nice big silver screen name. Mel Gibson. I like the sound of that and you can just call me Mel. Anon 9:25. Now we both can still be happy!

drwende said...

Someone in the position of the first two anonymouses really should do such a blog.

sf jack said...

I agree with drwende.

sf jack said...

And good work with the roll call of blogs.

And thanks for all the work done at this blog!

seemodel said...

Have you ever noticed that the Realtors Assocition are a pack of liars. They make up totally ridiculous things and the press actually prints them.

Who believes these liars anyhow.

This is what I read in today's news:

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. home sales for the year will be weaker and price appreciation will be smaller than previously forecast, a realtors group said on Wednesday.

In its monthly economic outlook, the National Association of Realtors lowered expectations for the two key housing indicators but said strong economic fundamentals signal that the market will stabilize.

"Given a positive economic backdrop of lower interest rates and job creation, we expect sales activity to pick up early next year," said David Lereah, NAR's chief economist.

For this year, though, the group expects the housing market to end weaker than they had previously predicted.

The median home price - the price at which half of the homes sell for more and half for less - is likely to rise 1.6 percent to $223,000 for all of 2006, the group said Wednesday.

In September, the group saw a rosier picture for home prices when it said the median price for existing homes should grow 2.8 percent to $225,900.

seemodel said...

Have you ever read any of the "forecasts" from the National Association of Realtors, they are a pack of liars, and blatent lies at that. Who takes these jokers seriously anymore...everyone knows they are desperate.

I laughed when I read this in todays news:


WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. home sales for the year will be weaker and price appreciation will be smaller than previously forecast, a realtors group said on Wednesday.

In its monthly economic outlook, the National Association of Realtors lowered expectations for the two key housing indicators but said strong economic fundamentals signal that the market will stabilize.

"Given a positive economic backdrop of lower interest rates and job creation, we expect sales activity to pick up early next year," said David Lereah, NAR's chief economist.

For this year, though, the group expects the housing market to end weaker than they had previously predicted.

The median home price - the price at which half of the homes sell for more and half for less - is likely to rise 1.6 percent to $223,000 for all of 2006, the group said Wednesday.

In September, the group saw a rosier picture for home prices when it said the median price for existing homes should grow 2.8 percent to $225,900.

Anonymous said...

Hello there. I'm the anonymous that posted the first comment. I think I will start my own blog. I'm trying to think of a catchy title. I'll keep you posted. Maybe others across the states can share their frustration/concern.