Sacramento Foreclosure Activity Up 99%, Placer Leads State with 203% Surge
DataQuick reports on 3rd quarter 2006 foreclosure activity. Unsurprisingly, Placer County, which has lead the state in price depreciation, also saw the largest surge in foreclosure activity (on a percentage basis) from the prior year.
Notices of Default
houses and condos
County/Region 2005Q3 2006Q3 %Chg
| Sacramento | 697 | 1,388 | 99.1% |
| San Joaquin | 323 | 898 | 178.0% |
| Placer | 146 | 443 | 203.4% |
| Kern | 361 | 741 | 105.3% |
| Fresno | 372 | 789 | 112.1% |
| Madera | 55 | 104 | 89.1% |
| Merced | 132 | 282 | 113.6% |
| Tulare | 117 | 268 | 129.1% |
| Yolo | 48 | 101 | 110.4% |
| El Dorado | 45 | 120 | 166.7% |
| Central Valley Total | 2,417 | 6,017 | 148.9% |
From Bloomberg:
"Price appreciation is evaporating,'' Andrew LePage, a DataQuick analyst, said in an interview. "That gives people fewer options to get out of a pinch...''
At the NeighborWorks HomeOwnership Center in Sacramento, California, the not-for-profit group's 12 workers are spending an increasing amount of time helping homeowners whose loans are in default, rather than focusing on the agency's goal of counseling people before they buy homes, Executive Director Pam Canada said.
"Certainly, over the last year, we've had an increase in the number of calls and requests for help from people who don't see the light at the end of the tunnel,"' Canada said. Such requests have risen 50 percent in the past year, she said. When prices were rising, "the home was always the place to go for financial salvation. They could always sell and get out from under their loan. That's not happening anymore.''
12 comments:
Well, at least Placer County can lead the state in something. Yeah for Placer....
Hand the keys to the bank and go hide out with wesley snipes. A lot of people are screwed.
Wasn't Placer the fastest growing county in California at one point?
SO you statisticians are comparing the foreclosure rate from the best market in recent history to today...what does that mean that we already don't know? Measuring the rate of change is shortsighted.
Well, maybe it means this: WSJ today (10/19) says "...mortgage delinquencies have been at low levels .....and the recent uptick only brings them closer to historical averages."
THe sipping guy
It's still a good time to buy right sipping guy???
Actually, it seems that actual foreclosures are reaching towards the heights. According to a sac bee article today, the previous quarterly record for PRE-foreclosures was in 1997 for Sac County at 2441. Of which historically 5-6% go into foreclosure. So, based on these figures, you'd expect about 140 or so foreclosures.
Fast forward to 3rd Q 2006, there are about 1388 PRE foreclosures, but about 19% are going into foreclosue. So you'd expect about 250 of these to go into foreclosure.
Actual foreclosures appear to have already eclipsed the high reported in 1997.
It depends, do you agressivily purchase real estate while you have a choice of better properties, or do you wait until there is just the least desirable properties left on the market or the most stubburn sellers?
Foreclosures and bank owned properties usually already had problems to start with.
If you want a higher end home in a prime area, you might be able to choose from 5 instead of bidding. on 1.
But if you're just looking for a lawn to park the pick up and a place to stack the Bud cans, wait.
As Dirty Harry said.."Do you feel lucky?"
Generally, foreclosures happen for one of two reasons: 1) the economy has stagnated and job losses have taken place, 2) people bit off more than they can chew.
We know the economy is strong by all of the economic indicators. However, the foreclosures are up because the false equity boom has gone the way of the dinosaur. People can no longer refinance themselves out of debt and use their house as an ATM machine.
SacBee:
While the numbers are up from historic lows of last year, they remain well below 1990s highs in all but Placer County. Placer County's 443 notices topped the county's previous record of 322 in the first quarter of 1996.
But DataQuick officials noted the county has more than doubled its numbers of homes since the early 1990s.
Sacramento County's 1,388 notices during this year's third quarter were more than 1,000 fewer than its previous 1997 quarterly record of 2,441.
Yolo County's 101 notices were 62 below its second-quarter 1998 peak of 163, while El Dorado County's 120 were below a quarterly 1992 high of 167.
Lander,
thanks for clarifying.... so the foreclosure rate per capita in Placer county is still below the 90's high I'm guessing but the numbers sound true.
Sounds like Andrew LePage (Dataquick) is up to his old ways from the Sac Bee - bending the facts to support the headlines he wants!
So is the glass empty, 1/2 full or did we just blow the head off the good beer...
The Foreclosure Game:
The more foreclosures, the more properties lenders will take back.
The lenders put property back on market and will adjust the listing price as advised by the advice of the sales team in the area where the home is located.
This will effect the amount of listings in the market place which will drive prices lower.
Most properties that make it to the auction block do not have enough equity for the bidder/investor who attends the auction to feel comfortable placing the opening bid, therefore the lender REPOS the property. And so, the REO market is formed.
I believe we shall see an increasing number of Notice of Defaults filed over the next 1-5 years which will not be cured by the owner and thus will result in auctions of these properties with no bidders. Our Joe Six Pack sellers will be competing against
the Banks searching for a buyer.
That word..."BUYER" will be lost from our vocabulary in the next two years.
As a side note,
Folks who lose property "with equity" in foreclosure usually have an assortment of psycological, emotional and financial challenges which become overwhelming to thier pocketbook and thought processes.
They are a wounded breed.
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