Friday, November 10, 2006

Sacramentans Tuning In to Housing Market News

It comes as no surprise to this blogger that Sacramentans are extremely interested in the state of the Sacramento housing market. According to Statcounter, the number of unique visits to this blog has been increasing by 2000-4000 visits a month. A few weeks ago, California Connected, a PBS show, had an episode on the California housing market which scored the program its highest ranking ever on Sacramento's KVIE. Watch the segment here.

California Connected received its highest ratings in two years on Friday, October 27. In the lead story, "Real Estate Blues," correspondent Judy Muller explored the rise and fall of housing prices in the state. We asked the question is the slump in prices merely a correction or has the housing bubble finally burst?
...
With a statewide average audience of 224,400 viewing households for the Friday premiere and its Sunday repeat, the episode earned the award-winning series its highest household viewership since Nielsen Media Research adopted Local People Meters in July 2004.

In addition, KVIE/Sacramento, one of four producing stations, achieved the highest individual market household rating in the series' five-year history, with a 3.3 household rating, for its original Friday broadcast of "Real Estate Blues."

19 comments:

Merced Going Quickly said...

Whatever happens in San Diego and Sacramento is the precursor to the events that will occur throughout California.


Also, I think buyers and seller are concerned with the message of RE professionals that now is the best time to buy. This is just a hunch, but I feel that a variable not taken into account from the last crash is all the blogging that's taking place on the issue. Before bloggers, all the buyer had was the word of the RE agent and the people around them. Now one can research themselves the latest info on the market, and all the blog commentary on that news. No, I am not giving bloggers the credit for popping the bubble -- the market takes care of itself -- but it does have some influence.

Last year in my quest to become a flipper I started looking for property on the Internet through google. Fortunately, I found this blog and housingbubble.com and these sites influenced me to give up the crazy idea.

Do Not said...

With the decline in home sales, have you noticed an increasing rental trend towards those who are wondering to rent or buy?

Also are the montly rental rates of condos going up?

Merced Going Quickly said...

I did some math using Zip data.

Merced: 26.8 homes for sale per 1000/pop.

Bakersfield, CA: 13.1 homes for per 1000/pop

Sacramento County: 7.7 homes for per 1000/pop

Seems like Merced, CA is living up to the forcast of "Crash Central."

Any comment on these numbers?

Anonymous said...

do not...

The rental rates are going up but occupancy is not. It's easy to find a place, you just have to pay more. When house prices tank, those who choose to hold will be forced to put their houses on the market for rent and that will lower rents.

vfsv said...

Silicon Valley's reported median prices appear to be holding up but we increasingly see evidence of manipulation of the data.

We see it in our own neighborhood:
http://www.viewfromsiliconvalley.com/id277.html

and also in reported county-wide stats:
http://www.viewfromsiliconvalley.com/id125.html

Keep checking
www.viewfromsiliconvalley.com
for all the latest numbers and news.

Thanks!

Anonymous said...

Here's one example ... 50XX Daniel Dr. in Sacramento, recently appearing on the Flippers in Trouble blog.

http://www.realtor.com/Prop/1069054674

Out of curiosity I did a bit of research ... It's a 4/2.5, 2200 sf, decent sized (8800 sf) lot. Asking price per Realtor.com is $369,900. The house is listed as a "Bank Foreclosed Property" and a "light fixer."

Zillow.com and Sacbee.com both list a sale on 8/24/2006 for $406,946. I wonder what this means -- maybe a trustee's sale or maybe it just went REO. Whatever the story is, somehow or another a total of $406.946 was exchanged for the title to this house.

House listed as built in 2001. Zillow gives 2004 tax assessment of $233K, so working backwards that's about $220K purchase price.

So between 2001 and 2006, $180K of "wealth" was "created" somehow. Now $36K of that "value" has disappeared since August. More to come? Who knows ...

Anonymous said...

vfsv...

Looked at your evidence, its not evidence, just a little misunderstanding.

Median prices jump around week to week in a small market that can be easily skewed by occasional high end properties selling.

Looks like a few typos, big deal.

Gwynster said...

My experince is that rental prices are going down, not up. I live in Davis where rentals have always had a preminum attached because it's proximity to UCD.

While we're getting a deal on our current place, we started looking on CL and in the paper saw some 3 br apts being offered for $855. That's a 30% discount from the Davis average rate. When I called them, they said that yes, that's the real rate, no tricks. They just aren't getting renters like they used to had cut their prices hoping to make some money on their vacant apts. Even during Aug and Sept of this year, I noticed prices edging down and many places unable to attract any renters at all. This is a big change for Davis.

I'm also seeing more homes becoming rentals here with the prices dropping. If you aren't a student, owners are almost begging you to rent their homes.

JR said...

Rental Rates for single family homes are not rising. If you look at the Sunday Bee, there are hundreds of homes for rent in almost all areas. In south Placer, I have seen asking rates for 2500-3500 sf homes drop from $2,000-2,500/mon to a new low of $1495 to 1995. And those houses are taking several months to find tenants. The landlords are tossing in new washers and dryers, refrigerators, landscaping service, etc. These are houses owned by Flippers who now get to carry $3,000/mon negative cash flow.

karl marx brothers said...

Hopefully no one has to live near one of these flipper houses that has to take any sort of renter, especially the one(s)who move every known relative in with them to help w. the rent.
Or the Owner/Main Leaseholder who rent out the houses room by room.
The neighborhoods get full of cars on lawns, noisy rude girlfriends, boyfriends, kids, dogs, motorcyles, etc.

Some decent people rent rooms but get overwhelmed by the marginal idiots.

Been there, done that after my divorce !

Anonymous said...

Those flippers are going to turn those neighborhoods into slums of the near future. Usually it takes 20 years for a area to go down the tubes.

These stupid flippers could cause them to go "hood' overnight.

Bakersfield Bubble said...

KB Home CEO resigns after backdating probe


Crispy&cole

sippn numbers said...

Gwynster, my experiance in Davis is development is done, UCD has huge growth plans and has to build housing themselves, maybe not in Davis. Rumor is the med school is moving to Sac.

Any rent decreases there are short term.

But you guys are starting to illuminate why people buy vs rent - who wants to live in a rental neighborhood?

The calcs show $500K primary residence, 20% down, 6% mortgage is a way better investment than renting and banking the down payment if the property appreciates only 15% in 10 years. The tax protected gain make it better than a 401K.

Even if you take the stuff I had in '90's high before the crash and look at the lowest possible values today, its well over 100% gain.

Anonymous said...

I bet the average Joe home owner will easily put 75K into his property over 10 years with maintenance and improvements. The average Joe renter will not put in a dime. Renting is way more economical than buying. Remind you this example will take place in an average Davis neighborhood.

Homeowner - new floors - fix plumbing - new landscaping - new roof - new tile - monthly maintenance expenses - mow lawn - weed garden - replace drywall when window leak - replace windows - replace faucets - replace fence - add cabinets - replace old cabinets - put in a Koi pond - replace Koi and on and on and on. Houses cost big bucks to own.

Renting cost just rent.

Gwynster said...

Sippin,

Yep, all of the Med school is moving to Sac. But the Cannery project is still going ahead. There was a piece in the Davis Enterprise about it on Oct 26th. And if I'm not mistaken, it's structured in a way that doesn't require it to go on the ballot like Conway Ranch did.

The UCD project called Village West is the other big development coming. Housing has so outpaced salaries here that UCD can't attract talent when the salaries are comparable with universities like Vanderbilt, U of Kentucky, UNC, Duke, Penn State, etc. and yet the cost of housing in 1/2 to a 1/4 of ours. That's UCD's big issue.

Also, despite the county and Woodland saying they won't merge with Davis and keep Davis's beloved green belt intact - don't bet on it. Both KB and Centex's new communities are literally like arms reaching out to the Davis city limits. It will all merge eventually.

Another thing forcing down the rents is all the new student housing UCD had built with more coming online.

I work for UCD with quite a few friends in Mrak Hall so I get the dirt on planning all the time.

Owners in Davis are nervous. Just try to mention price declines and you'll get your head snapped off - the smell of fear is in the air.

I don't think Davis will get hit as bad as most of the greater Sacramento but it's still going to hurt.

sippn said...

Anon .. and if the market goes sideways they can BBQ Koi at Redrum. The neighborhood my neighbors spend $75k in maint is the one I want to buy in.

Its so hard to mow around the truck, dogs and Earl.

Another point of appreciation will cover it. Need 16% in 10 years

sippn said...

Hey Chrispy and Cole, thanks for the tip on Karatz resignation (KB Home). Always, always always follow the money. Needs to be some new accounting rules put in place as this BS is happening in all publics, not just builders.

(the guy was already most highly compensated builder for years)

Watch the rest of the publics write down land holdings 50% this year, shopping for low appraisals to support it, so bonuses can start again next year.

Anonymous said...

If a person plans on being in area for less than five to ten years it is always better to rent.

The run up we have had the last five years will reverse to 2001/2002 numbers by the end of 2008.

Anonymous said...

If a person plans on being in area for less than ten years it is always better to rent.

The run up we have had the last five years will reverse to 2001/2002 numbers by the end of 2008.