Tuesday, December 26, 2006

Housing Bubble Bloggers Make the Wall Street Journal

From the Wall Street Journal:

For years, Americans who refused to buy real estate at what they considered excessive prices were ribbed for failing to profit from one of the greatest booms in history. "Are You Missing the Real Estate Boom?" needled the title of a 2005 book by David Lereah, chief economist of the National Association of Realtors.
Now, with the housing market in a slump, renters who sat out the boom are finally getting some satisfaction.
Continue reading here.

Hat Tip: New Jersey RE Report


anon1137 said...

. . . Recently he mused on his Web site about why more people don't follow his example. "I get the
feeling many wives are pressuring the husbands to buy," he wrote. "I know it's not politically correct to
say so, but I think a lot of irrational purchases are driven by female nesting instincts." . . .

I'm so glad someone else said this. Same thing, another way: ticking biological clocks are behind a huge amount of the frustration expressed on housing bubble blogs (not that there's anything wrong with that).

Sippn said...


Sometimes men get confused and think they're a part of the decision....

Men typically could get by with a place for butt, Bud and Broadcasting, not necessarily in that order.

Hey did you see the BJ reported that Davis vacancies down to 1.5%, rents up region wide?

anon1137 said...

So maybe lots of women are delaying the decision to have children until they can buy a house and there's going to be a mini-spike in population as the bubble deflates. Or maybe there's a mini-migration going on of women of child-bearing age to less expensive parts of the country. Or maybe women are changing mates - to men who can afford nests or men with pre-existing nests. This bubble could be having significant social effects.

sippn said...

So I've been reading this article over and over and heres another take...

The economist couple, made about $200K in 7 years, almost 9x return on a typical 20% down payment, tax free, and he is gloating because he got out early, now is paying $27,600 a year in rent for an apartment instead of about 10K less tax subsidy in mortgage payments he had and could of had permanently. They would have to find a really good investment to cover the monthly payment difference. Hope he predicted the Dow increase; otherwise, now what?

2 incomes, living in an apartment? They'll be back in the market.

Palo Alto family - moving your kids 4x in 5 years - thats just not right. Maybe it shouldn't be all about you and your job, but find a town and a job where you can raise them. His income was $77k in 1997 - could have afforded a house then and made a half mil in this run up since then - what a fool. Would have been set for life with a little sacrafice up front.

drwende said...

And today, for variety, the Wall Street Journal declared the housing slump to be over. They are predicting volatility in the winter, with the likelihood of a lively market three months from now, if new home builders can successfully dump six months' worth of inventory by then.

SIppn said...


You should see how the Bureau of Labor Statistics counts inventory - they include empty lots and homes under construction as well as finished. The actual inventory of new homes finished and sitting is about 2 months - and thats 2 months at this low sales pace. The normal inventory low is 4 months including empty lots, bringing finished stuff close to zero.

They'll get this down by spring.

Sales in the South is gaining while in the Northeast its slow. Since the South is cheaper, it affects median prices.

Its not all gloom and doom.