Saturday, December 02, 2006

Some Weekend Reading

AnalysisGuy, over at the Daily Local Home Price Analysis blog (also at thebubblebuster.com), recently released a report on the Sacramento housing market. Check it out here [pdf] or here.

The Sacramento Real Estate Statistics blog has a great series of articles detailing how home builders are undercutting the resale market:

OCRenter now tracks foreclosures over at the Bubble Markets Inventory Tracking blog. There are some incredible numbers for the Sacramento real estate market, especially the percentage of foreclosures to pre-foreclosures. As usual, the Sacramento housing market tops the list at 30.4%, easily beating out fellow bubble markets Phoenix (14.0%) and San Diego (24.9%).

PBS.org looks at the housing bubble blogs: Newspaper, Bubble Blogs Feed the Real Estate Obsession.

One more...Rich Toscano looks at what triggered the early 90's housing bust. Was it job losses, interest rates, or the housing boom itself?
Oh, and by the way, I hope the new layout here at Sacramento Land(ing) is easier to read (white background/wider reading area). SL is now fully converted to Blogger's new beta version, which has some handy new features. Most useful, in my opinion, is the "labels" feature, which allows me to describe each post with keywords. You can see a complete list of Sacramento Land(ing) topics by scrolling down to the bottom of the link list on the right. Click on a topic, and the left side will populate with posts on that topic. Generally, topics include posts written in the last 2-3 months. I may add older posts as I have time. This system is not perfect, but hopefully it will make finding older posts easier. As always, you can search for something more specific by using the search field, which resides at the very top left-hand corner of the blog.

13 comments:

waiting_for_the_fall said...

I really enjoy this blog.

Anonymous said...

Me and Ma, Granpa, Granma, Uncle Arlo, Aunt LucileAnne, Tom and RoseaSharon all enjoy reading this here blog on our laptop that was givent to us by the school wear RoseaSharon, BillyTom, and LilySue go in West Sac otherwize yourn would be pitifully ignorant some....

As you knowed we be camping here in West Sac on the River and eatin with some find butcherin Hog with them funny Chinaman from Laos,

but life be improvin some here come right soon cuz we jist talk to Mr John Saca and he says we can live in a hole he dug fur hisself over there near the Capitol of Sacramento. Mr John Saca he done tell us that he runnin outta money and we can rent his hole in the ground he dug and put up a tarp and sleep mighty fine in that hole, and he even got hisself some mighty fine plumbing even tho it be moveable type fixtures.

Keeps up the fine rightin,

Pa Joad

Anonymous said...

Thanks for the info. This gives me fresh ammo when talking to the housing bulls. We are on track for a 50% decline by 2009. Final housing battle of our time coming spring 2007.

Max said...

Thanks for the writeup! You've inspired me to try the new blogger template system as well. Some quirks, but it looks like it's working...

Gwynster said...

Good job Lander - the information on the builder discounts is very topical right now.I know it gave me more to think about.

Gwynster said...

I've always said that education and property were two sides of the same issue and now UC is coming clean with the public.

http://www.sacbee.com/101/story/86644.html

I wonder how this will effect UCD's West Village plan.

JR said...

Here is an interesting post from Ben's blog:

Sacramento Mortgage Fraud Update:

I started this thread earlier today on the “Let’s Get Hopped Up and Make Some Bad Decisions” section. I am posting it here so all the bloggers who encouraged me (and discouraged me) can see a bit of success to date.

Background: Five homes sold on one street, Hillwood Loop in Lincoln in the last few weeks, all using $750,000 fraudulent loans, $200,000 over market, 80/20, 100% financing. I am working with the FBI, DRE and county DA, but it is tedious, as they are just starting to understand the reality. A good friend suggested I will be more efficient in stopping this fraud, by putting the lenders on notice. So I wrote to all 4 lenders: New Century w/ 2 loans, Alliance Bancorp, Long Beach Mortgage and First Franklin. I CC’s the FBI, DRE and DA.

Today, Andy Pollock with First Franklin responded. His statement is below:

“I am in receipt of your e-mail information. It will be forwarded to First Franklin’s asset quality division for evaluation and qualification. Our conclusions and next steps are contingent on any specific findings, if any at all.

Andy Pollok, First Franklin, 408-964-XXXX {I edited his direct #}, 408-955-7599 Fax”

SO THE BALL IS ROLLING NOW. I can tell you Andy will find huge fraud behind the asset at 1329 Hillwood Loop, which secures his loan. His mortgage is for $785,000 (80/20). The builder advertised a similar, but better model for $550,000 in the Sacramento Bee a month ago. So Andy will be eating $235,000, plus expenses.

Economics is where the key lies to stopping this stuff. A sub prime lender makes money on the spread when the put the loan into the MBS loan pool. Suppose they make 5 points, so Andy was going to make $37,500 on this loan. Now, he will lose at least $235,000, so he must originate 7 more loans just to break even on this one mistake. Hmmm, I don’t think these loans grow on trees…..

I feel like I am earning my new “Nom de Plume” and after a month of hard work, I am finally starting to see results.

Paladin

“Have Pen, Will Travel” Wire Paladin, San Francisco (Google it if you don’t get it)

Anonymous said...

Fantastic news JR. I think the work you are doing is great. Please keep up the postings. Everytime I read about your efforts it gives me new hope that maybe something will be done to finally paint a picture of what is happening.

Perfect Storm

Anonymous said...

Anyone following the RE collapse will be interested in this article:
http://www.detnews.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20061201/BIZ03/612010399/1001/BIZ

Vacant subdivisions ala the 1984 S&L collapse where whole subdivisions sat vacant for years... This is gonna be much worse than all us bitter renters hoped for....

Anonymous said...

JR, just to make sure your concerns about JTS and Lincon crossing are heard and acted upon (because I believe they should be) contact Jeff Davi (Commissioner of DRE) His secretary will take the message, and if you tell him you are going to the media (and I hope you really do) he will respond. Otherwise, your DRE complaint will likely get lost in the "we are understaffed and overworked department." Best wishes with your pursuit.

AnalysisGuy said...

Today's report on Boston has been released on both my blog and our new website. History has shown us that Boston is a great indicator of what will happen here in California.

thebubblebuster.com
or
Daily Home Price Analysis

sippn said...

S&L collapse was due to them participating in real estate partnerships (as builders) and other risky ventures (like funding Bill Clinton).

Rick Toscano good information but oversimplifies - has no analysis. Does he know the quality of jobs representeded in his numbers...was San Diego trading Aerospace jobs for 7-11 jobs, likely. A friend of mine in greater LA at the time - the Aerospace business slowdown took out his whole chain or retail gun stores, those guys bought a lot of toys when employed. Couple that with CA base closings and Kuwait.

Its combinations of negative factors that cause this stuff.

Careful mixing your drinks also.

AnalysisGuy said...

I released three more Q3:2006 reports today - San Francisco, Seattle and Los Angeles. Seattle is particularly interesting because it's never had a period of nominal price decine. Thanks for posting a link to our page. We need to get the truth out! I will run a Sacramento Q3 report within weeks.

thebubblebuster.com