Thursday, December 21, 2006

West Sacramento Prices "Tumbled" 26% in a Year

The Sacramento Business Journal reports on November's CAR & DataQuick stats:

Report: West Sac home prices fall 26 percent in a year

Sacramento-area's median home price plummeted and sales tumbled in November from a year earlier, the latest evidence of a struggling real estate market. Home prices in the four-county region declined 3.9 percent to $365,000 in November compared to a year ago, according to a California Association of Realtors (CAR) report released Thursday. But several markets -- including Elk Grove and West Sacramento -- reported much larger price drops [Keep in mind the city data is from DataQuick and measures combined (all) sales of existing and new homes.]

Existing-home sales fell 24.5 percent last month in the Sacramento area compared to November 2005, according to the closely watched monthly report. The region's sales drop was one of the largest in the state.
...
West Sacramento's median-home price -- meaning half the homes sold for more, half for less -- tumbled 26.2 percent last month to $363,500, easily the largest decline in the region.

Elk Grove, Lincoln and Placerville also endured double-digit percentage declines in median price from a year ago. Placerville fell 14.6 percent to $365,000; Lincoln dropped 13.8 percent to $420,909; and Elk Grove declined 12.9 percent to $428.000. The Realtor group cautioned that communities with small numbers of transactions may see unusually large fluctuations in median prices.

And all four counties reported lower home prices, led by a 16 percent decline in Yolo County. El Dorado County had the smallest drop, down 4.3 percent. Placer and Sacramento counties' median home prices fell 12.6 percent and 8.8 percent, respectively.
CAR report here.
DQNews/DataQuick report here (and archived here).

33 comments:

Anonymous said...

I suppose that the "softness" of the landing has been hardening?

patient renter said...

From the dataquick report:

Area, # Sold, Nov 2006 Median, Nov 2005 Median, % Change

WEST SACRAMENTO, 98, $363500, $492750, -26.23%

With 98 transactions, those numbers seem pretty solid. That is a huge drop.

Anonymous said...

God I love this. I hope it is off another 25% soon.

Bakersfield Bubble said...

Bakersfield has been 9-12 months behind Sac town. I expect these kind of declines within that time period.

Anonymous said...

ANON 3:39 - Freaking classic comment, too funny. I'm been all stressed out for 7 years now not being a home owner, losing out on tax breaks, equity, etc. and I'm finally content not owning property. It's finally pay back for the rest of us. Asfor Bakersfield, Merced, Patterson, Fresno and the entire Inland Empire, the blood will flow high in those rivers. I can't believe that they follow Sacto, they should be leading the charge! My oh my!

Anonymous said...

I wonder how this report fits in with David "the liar" Lereah's coments quoted in the SacBee today about downturn in the market "...It may be a 2 percent drop, a 5 percent drop. Mabe it even gets to be an 8 percent drop in that area." (OR IT MAY BE A 26% DROP, just everyone go out there and buy, buy buy. Buy a house, there has never been a better time. Also, buy a book, how about my books, no those are really nice stocking stuffers! REALLY BUY MY BOOKS CAUSE I'VE GOT A MORTGAGE.... PLEASE!!!

Anonymous said...

the link in the Bee is

http://www.sacbee.com/
103/story/96326.html

Gwynster said...

This is beautiful. Couple this article with rental prices for brand new homes down to $45 per sqft. They're easy to find all over CraigsList.

Let the panic begin...

patient renter said...

"It may be a 2 percent drop, a 5 percent drop. Mabe it even gets to be an 8 percent drop in that area." OR IT MAY BE A 26% DROP

i think that phrase pretty much sums up lereah and his credibility... i mean, lack of credibility. the crap he spouts is so far off it couldn't be further if he tried.

Anonymous said...

West Sac down 26%.

I hear you can get a good deal on a Ford Excursion now too, but does anyone care?

Wake me up when E. Sac or Land Park are down more than 10% (or approx. 6 months worth of 2004 appreciation).

Anonymous said...

I was at an opening for a "new" condo project downtown a few weeks ago. Talk about over priced. These were conversions of dumpy apts, and no real thought or money went into these condos. Even better, they are going for more per sq.ft than new condos in SD. Now which is the better deal? We're looking at more drops, and not single digits like the "experts" predict. E. Sact and Land Park are also on the chopping block, just need to add time to the receipe.

sippn said...

Folks the pintos are selling, the SUVs are not, thats the maincause of the 26% median price reduction.

Course, maybe its west sac

Anonymous said...

sippn,

You might want to check the sac bee sales listings. It's not the pintos selling today vs the SUVs of 2005. Look at the Bridgeway Island/lakes homes which have at least 20% decrease yoy ($650K-$700K in 2005 vs $450K-$550K today). Sorry to burst your bubble... pun intended...

HappyinSF said...

Huh? It's been a long time since I took the SATs. Wouldn't west sac be the pinto? And wouldn't someplace of bloated excess be the SUV? Are the pintos selling?

Anonymous said...

Who the heck would want to live near one of the largest street gangs in the region?

Those people in Bridgeway Lakes must love the sound of gunshots, helicopters and sirens.

Gwynster said...

My understanding is that most of the gang activity has moved to Elk Grove/ Pocket though no area is gang free here anymore. Is there ore to the story?

Anonymous said...

Well, the topic is West Sacramento, so the pintos would be analogous to the ghetto homes in West Sac and the SUVs, the new homes in West Sac. Rather than the pintos being all of West Sac and the SUVs say the El Dorado Hills.

sippn said...

OK a little s l o w e r

West Sac is a fairly new builder market. Builders loaded it with a lot of very large homes in 2005, switching to mostly smaller homes and condos 2006 and into the future as is a vast part of the production builder market.

Very large homes = SUV's
Smaller homes = Pintos (ok I should have called subcompacts)

When somebody like KB opens up a tract in Woodland, it skews and dominates the stats until its gone.

Looking throu "Yolo Flippers in Trouble" theres no more that you would expect from West Sac listed and the loss rates aren't huge for a quick flip.

I kind of like Southport with the new Nugget, Pheasant Club and that hang out stuff. City of WS is working on the high school and pool, etc. Couldn't get much closer to down town Sac unless its Saca.

Anonymous said...

The Nugget may be nice, the view of the river may be nice, the proximity to downtown Sac may be nice, but when you get a letter in the mail what does the address say: West Sacramento. W. Sac is synonymous with truck stops, trailer parks, gangs, hookers, and motels where you pay by the hour. Maybe that will change someday, but not in my lifetime. I used to live on the outskirts of El Sobrante, on a beautiful ridge with a view of Wildcat Canyon Park, within 5 mins. of some of the best bicycling roads in the Bay Area. But my mailing address was Richmond. You can't get away from that.

Gwynster said...

Anon 11:04, please get a handle already. I'm not psychic enough to tell y'all apart.

I did my homework on Southport and west sacramento. I'll agree that north of West Capitol is at least a decade away from any sustainable, successful genterification. I wouldn't touch the state streets area either.

sippn said...

True that anon, Richmond isn't going to change with a little development, but SOMA did.

I'll date myself a little, but I remember when (or I've heard)...

Roseville was where the Hobos went when we pushed them out from Sac.

Granite Bay was a little boat ramp at the end of Douglas Blvd, where all the mobile homes where.

Campus Commons you drove past on the way to Arden Park - if you lived in Arden Park, you went to Grant High School.

Oak Park was a really nice neighborhood (1940's - lead Free)

Meadowview was too, see above. (1960's)

Sierra Oaks was a swamp.

Hells Angels lived in Orangevale.

Hookers moved to 4th and T from Old Sac.

The Country CLub in Rio Linda was just a bunch of low rent trailers with trucks on the lawns...Oh sorry , got ahead of myself.

Gwynster, I think you're right. North of WC could be pretty cool in 10 years, but not yet.

Anonymous said...

Sorry Gwynster. I got a username several weeks ago but I've had trouble using it. I'll try changing my password.

Thanks for the history of Sac, sippin - very interesting.

Anon1137

Lander said...

Anon1137-

You can also select the "other" option and type in your handle if you are having problems with your password.

Gwynster said...

10 years is generous.

I've watched people try to gentrify Oakpark for a decade now and it's not really working.

The issues with Oak Park really bleed over into the surrounding areas. I love Curtis Park but would never live there. Same with the Proverty Ridge and along T street. Those the areas where Oak Park natives go "shopping".

Took Mr. Gwynster out house shopping today. We can afford nothing even with $67 for a down. And I can figure is that everywhere we are looking, people are using stated income loans. Anything else makes no sense.

ps. I'm really starting to hate asian BA transplants. It's irrational, petty, and really not a good sign. They remind me of OC when the japanese came in a bought up everything. Those are years I have no desire to relive.

Anon1137 said...

All I can figure is that everywhere we are looking, people are using stated income loans. Anything else makes no sense.

You don't need to be rich or using a funny mortgage if you bought only 2-3 years ago, when prices were 25-50% less than they are today. And I'll ignore that comment about Asians, because I know you didn't mean it.

Anonymous said...

woo-hoo! it worked! thx Lander - and merry xmas to you!

Gwynster said...

No grudges Anon1137, just frustrated beyond belief.

Chicks are weird, especially about houses. All day, all I saw were BMWs filled with asian-americans touring homes and had an irrational, knee-jerk reaction. You'd think as a first generation American (my mother is from Berlin and jewish) I'd be better adjusted >; )

Next time I go home shopping, remind me to get drunk first...

anon1137 said...

I think you should follow your game plan, Gwynster, and find a good lease deal and rent/save for another year. Prices are bound to come down some, and maybe down a lot. The zips I track are still at their peak, even though other areas are starting to come down. I'm like you, with lots of cash, but I won't buy until things start to make sense for me . . . and $500K for 1000 ft2 one block from the freeway with homeless people in the yard, bad schools, and Megan's List offenders as neighbors doesn't make sense to me.

Gwynster said...

Right now we're only looking at new builds and every salesperson we talked to just dug in their heels about prices not coming down any more.

Mr. Gwynster is pissed beyond belief and wants out of CA at any cost. He's from Chicago and has lived all over the mid-atlanic states, TN and KY. I just got offered a new position with a great office and a raise and I'd like to stay awhile.

But he really hates it here - especially when someone tells him fundamentals don't mean anything here because this is CA. Davis looks just like Des Moines without snow. Woodland looks just like KS around Topeka and portions of OK. The summers feel about the same in both places too. Except we don't get those great summer showers, fireflies, and lighning storms.

When did 7K a month begin to equal working poor here? **bangs her head on the desk repeatedly**

anon1137 said...

I sympathize with you. I don't know your exact situation but I think young couples are probably the most severely affected by this bubble. I'm born and raised in CA, so probably biased, but I don't think there's any place like this place. Other places may look the same on the surface, but the people are different (red vs. blue) and you can't drive to Pt. Reyes or Monterey or Yosemite from Topeka. As I've said before, I've known people who have left CA and regretted it but can't get back because they moved somewhere with a lower appreciation rate (aka, not the east coast). That said, being able to raise a family is a good reason to move.

Gwynster said...

Anon1137,

I explained my idea on relocating here http://tinyurl.com/y54yyo
and here http://tinyurl.com/y7k35x

And for my money, the Sierras are a yawn. Give me the lushness of Blue Ridge mountains and Kentucky bluegrass any day.

anon1137 said...

That sounds like a good argument for you to move.

For me, there's nothing that could ever make me move out of CA. I love my wife dearly, but when she occasionally hints that her job may be transferred, I tell her please call or write occasionally.

happyinSF said...

Gwynster,
Could you please not make racist comments about asians on here? Also, how many years are we going to have to hear about all the things you might do or buy? Sheesh, what a waste of everyones time at those openings you go to, just buy some damn cookies and a box rosay and stay home. Problem solved, no more exposure to those pesky asians and we don't have to hear about it.