Monday, January 15, 2007

-6% v. -10%

From the Manteca Bulletin:

Typical resale home fetches $412K in ‘06. The median selling price of a previously owned home in Manteca was $412,000 in 2006 — some $28,000 less than in 2005.

And almost three weeks into 2007 there are mixed signals in the Manteca housing market with new home demand starting to pick up and sales of previously owned homes still struggling.
...
The price adjustment is less severe than in the early 1990’s when the recession triggered by the Loma Prieta Earthquake in 1989 coupled with the subsequent slashing of military and aerospace jobs due to federal spending decisions resulted in a 10 percent drop in values.

The drop this time around is just over 6 percent.
Let's review:

1990's bust: -10%
  • Duration: about 5 years from peak to bottom (and about 7.5 years to regain peak)
  • Recession
  • Earthquake
  • Base closings
Current bust: -6%
  • Duration: about 1 year (so far)
  • No recession
  • No earthquake
  • No base closings

7 comments:

patient renter said...

I'm no mathemetician, but let's give this a try.

1990's bust: -10%
Duration: about 5 years

Current bust: -6%
Duration: about 1 year

Projecting that out a bit:
5 years at the current rate of decline = 5 * -6 = -30%.

This would be 3 times greater than the previous bust.

Sippn said...

Funny,

Lander, I figured this was relatively good news but... the doomsayers took only 4 hours to spin this down!

BTW the Manteca market is so small that one large multigenerational family move could almost skew the stats either way. So one subdivision high end or low end, or one condo project can really change the nature of the market statistics there.

drwende said...

Manteca's population is over 60,000, or twice the size of West Sacramento, four times the size of Dixon, and considerably larger than most places in Placer County. Since most of the growth is recent and many a tract of new homes stands empty, there's a substantial housing market (or at least, a substantial number of houses) -- to affect it, the multigenerational family would have to be larger than the Carringtons, the Colbys, the Ewings, and all those nice people from Falcon Crest, put together.

Lander said...

I figured this was relatively good news...

It is, if we are at the bottom now.

Re: size--You're right that the smaller the market, the more fluctuations you'll see. However, a look at a larger market (San Joaquin County) shows similar figures (at least on a Dec to Dec yoy basis).

SJ Median: -5.9% yoy
SJ Average Price per SqFt: -8.8% yoy

TrendGraphix

Anonymous said...

The print copy of the Manteca Bulletin on Sunday had this table without the %appreciation column.

Year Price %appreciation
1991 $134,000
1995 $125,900 -6
2002 $237,892 89
2003 $267,030 12
2004 $336,081 31
2005 $440,189 26
2006 $412,000 -6

The speed of the downturn is pretty dramatic but the height at which the market rose is more dramatic (unless you bought in 2004-2005).

Lander said...

Thanks anon. Did they include prices for 1992, 1993, and 1994?

Anonymous said...

Lander,

No other year's prices were listed.

BTW -- They classified their data pretty narrowly as "Median price of resale home closing escrow within Manteca's city limits"