Sacramento Home Sales Dip to 9-Year Low; Regional Sales Down 36% in 2006
From the Sacramento Bee:
December sales of new and existing homes and condominiums fell to a nine-year low last month in Sacramento and Placer counties, while overall 2006 sales proved the lowest since 1998, according to La Jolla-based DataQuick Information Systems.
DataQuick reported 2006 sales of 42,300 new and existing homes and condominiums in Amador, El Dorado, Nevada, Placer, Sacramento, Sutter, Yolo and Yuba counties - 23,300 fewer sales than 2005.
It was the lowest number of closed escrows for a year since 47,338 in 1998. The high was 70,179 at the peak of the region's housing boom in 2004.
13 comments:
I wonder if those numbers have been population-adjusted?
Some would suggest that the peak years of 2004-2005 pulled alot of the buyers that would have "normally" purchased in 2006 and later into the market and the pool of buyers coming into 2006 was less than normal. Just as weekly numbers need to be averaged over some time period, so do annual numbers as well.
Why didn't they provide the inventory numbers for the comparative regions?
Then you could figure out how many months supply of housing we presently have.
Semantics? "Lowest since '98", but '98 was actually higher than '06 sales by 5038. So wouldn't they have to go back even further, say '97 or ?? to find sales lower than '06 sales?
Then they could say "lowest since" because they would be comaring to a lower number.
My2¢
At present, there are 12,120 residential listings in the 4 county area. In the last 30 days, 1,381 listings sold giving us almost 9 months of inventory. January isn't a good month to use for inventory buildup though. April will give a much clearer picture for the rest of the year in my opinion.
Using the numbers presented in this article, specifically:
“DataQuick reported 2006 sales of 42,300 new and existing homes and condominiums in Amador, El Dorado, Nevada, Placer, Sacramento, Sutter, Yolo and Yuba counties - 23,300 fewer sales than 2005.”
Logic would result in a conclusion that in 2005 there were 65,600 sales (42,300 + 23,300). That would in effect mean that there was a 35.5% reduction (23,300/65,600 * 100) in sales when comparing 2005 to 2006. And this is a soft landing?
Anon 6:13
I like your style. Right to the point. The housing market increases we have had the last few years is not based on any fundamentals other than extending credit to those in the past who could not obtain such credit. Now that I have said that, is giving people a chance on such a low FICO score a bad thing, no, but unfortunately there are a lot of subprime loan officers who have taken advantage of the loan programs and abused them in order to make a commission without a care in the world what they were doing to some of our lower income citzens who would have been better off renting until a better opportunity arose. Now some of these people are in way over their head and are facing serious financial crisis.
Now Sippin, please give us some commentary. Do you think that the loan programs that have become so popular the last few years are a good thing for our society? Or do you think that property prices have risen to such heights based on fundamentals that individuals in our society have to resort to toxic mortgages in order to obtain property ownership. Now this is for prosperity purposes so please be honest.
Why thank you for valuing my opinion. I don't remember commenting on financing, but...
These "warm body" loans are indeed dangerous. But why should somebody be able to finance a Denali (or 4x4 jacked pick up) easier than a home?
Its been my experiance that a no doc loan requires a significant down payment.... no problem with that....you sign, you dine.
Neg amor - I'm OK with that too... its not for amateurs, but now banks can't require borrowers to show ability to read, HS diploma, etc. that would be "redlining"
The first time I saw a TV story on homes not selling, it was a real estate agent, her husband and a friend who she had talked into purchaseing a few tract homes with the purpose of flipping them (w/o occupancy) The homes were in west Sac or Natomas, they were from Elk Grove. Not occcuping them was fraud by a licensed professional - no sympathy here.
So people who fabricate income information to qualify for a loan they can't afford in order to speculate on a real estate purchase.... why not just rob the bank instead?
I know you want to blame the lender. Do you take responsibility mistakes you make? Should we treat people as adults?
Yes there should be some more regulations.
Would I buy now - depends.
New home in Lincoln Xing - yes, not going to get any cheaper.
Resale 500-2mil in East Sac-Fair Oaks - been moving and is appreciating, inventory thin.
Folsom - moving again.
Saca towers - nows the time to make a contingent offer on best stuff - what to loose?
Rocklin renter - no its not population adjusted
Folks... the data quick sales numbers suggest sales of 3500 homes per month (average 2006 @42300 sales/year) so we need a comparable inventory #.
sippn,
When you say now is the time to be making a contingent offer on a condo at Saca towers what do you mean by a "contingent offer"? Contingent on what?
Is it oh sh@t time in sacramento?
Prices are so out of whack with fundamentals folks.
I think some people need to learn to build their own houses. The builders have a lot of folks by the balls.The land is sold in such huge blocks only corporations can buy it.
I am going to build my own house soon.I can save thousands on labor costs and other grossly inflated costs in a home.
Generation y is all screwed up.It is all about instant gratification.
In response to SIPPN...
"Folsom - moving again"
I just don't get that. I make well over the Folsom median income, very little debt and I can't afford anything decent. I've tracked the MLS for homes <$400k and there's very little movement and nothing of quality.
I'm looking for a ~1600 sq ft 3/2 and I refuse to pay $500k to live in Briggs or Empire Ranch or one of the crappy condo projects in Folsom.
I too anticipate prices falling and coming more in line with income. But it's just not happening. Yet. Maybe it won't.
If so, those 2500+ sq ft McMansions in Eldorado Hills renting for $1800 - 2000 are starting to look tempting.
Signed,
Waiting and waiting and waiting in Folsom
Waiting in folsom,
I to like the folsom area a lot.It got way overpriced and priced me out.
It takes extreme patience to ride a bubble out and it could be several years before prices really come down.Prices are very sticky on the way down.
I would like a place in empire ranch myself, it is a very nice area.I looked at some condos over near intel last year but they were too expensive, especially once you add in hoa fees.
I am waiting it out in beatiful arizona.I found a real great deal a couple months ago. It was an inventory home that a previous buyer cancelled on. It is brand new 3br 2.5 ba 1726 sq ft on a golf couse w/ 40k in upgades and I paid 209900.I am 10 minutes from shopping and starbucks.It costs me about 150.00 to fly roundtrip to sac on southwest w/ advance purchase.
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