Wednesday, February 14, 2007

Sacramento Association of Realtors - January 2007 Report

The Sacramento Association of Realtors (SAR) has released their MLS data [pdf] for January 2007. Figures are for single-family home sales in Sacramento County and West Sacramento.

  • Sales (YoY): -16.1%
  • 20th month of YoY sales declines, 17th month of double-digit declines
  • Median price (YoY): -3.6%
  • 7th month of YoY price declines
  • Median price (from peak): -9.6% (down $37,750)
More January reports:

11 comments:

AgentBubble said...

I have to disagree with some of these figures. I'm sure I'm using the same MLS system SAR is using, but our numbers are quite different. For the record, here's the criteria I'm using:

Date Range: 01/01/06-01/31/06 compared to 01/01/07-01/31/07

Listing Types: Residential and Mobile Home

Areas: Sacramento County + West Sacramento

Using the criteria above, here's what I come up with:

SAR-Sales (YoY): -16.1%
ME-Sales (YoY): -24.3%
Why? 848 sales in 2007, 1054 in 2006

The median price is close enough (I'm at 3.8%) I won't go into that. However, here are some figures they didn't show you:

Average Square Feet:
2006 - 1612
2007 - 1705 (+5.8%)

Median Square Feet:
2006 - 1449
2007 - 1559 (+7.6%)

Average $/SF
2006 - 251.96
2007 - 225.84 (-11.6%)

Median $/SF
2006 - 243.32
2007 - 218.35 (-11.4%)

Helps to be able to see the big picture. In short, in Jan 2007, you can get a house 7.6% bigger and 11.4% cheaper per square foot than in Jan 2006. This also means the median house (1449 sq ft in 2006) cost $351,121 in 2006 and $316,389 in 2007.

Sippn said...

OK, you guys are focusing on closings, I like to look at pendings as the result of whats happening now. Year vs year pendings for January are only down 11.9% but look at the spikes:


January Vs December in Sacramento
Inventory up 19.2%
New escrows up 51.2 % - (!!!)
CLosings down 22.3%

New escrows are the result of current activity, closings are the result of November and December activity which was typcially slow, Inventory typically up in January.

Gwynster said...

As credit tightens, won't more pending fail to close?

Patient Renter said...

"As credit tightens, won't more pending fail to close?"

Definately, also the fact that potential buyers aren't able to sell their existing homes.

Gwynster said...

here is the link to the Bee coverage

http://www.sacbee.com/102/story/124111.html

anon1137 said...

Sippn - I noticed an unusual amount of sales activity in January too. Some of this may be due to the unseasonably good weather - in other words, Feb and March may be a little slower than usual (that is, if it ever starts raining again).

RMB said...

Sippn,

I'll agree pendings are a good future indicator. With all of the cancellations and dropouts though do to the deals falling through they never really tie out to what closes. A huge spike in pendings could lead to a spike in closings or it could lead to the same number of closings and a huge spike in cancellations. I heard there are a lot of people trying to get in under the wire for financing so that is going to drive some activity. The deadline date I have heard is the end of Feb so I'll just wait and see what happens to activity in march and April.
BTW, down south of SAC all of the activity is down - closings, pending, lookers etc. so I don't expect the spring to be to much of an upswing.

Sippn said...

Remember, we're comparing apples to apples - pendings to pendings, assuming a similar rate of cancellations, the spike is real.

Regarding getting under the wire, I would say that is for refi's as credit already tightened and its too late if you're close to 100% LTV.

Gwynster, you'll never find your 3x formula... even in the middle of the country where this happens, it included the income ratio of homeowners who have owned their home 5-10 years, not @ purchase. So it reflects a rise in income after purchase of the home - make sense?

Anon 1137, a January spike is typical, but usually its called a Spring spike because "they" only follow closings ... 45 days later. It is the same.

Gwynster said...

Sippin, I so beg to differ. I already found it. ahhh but thanks >; )

Lander said...

According to the SAR data for the last 6 years, a "spike" in new escrows between December and January is a seasonal phenomenon, just as a decline in sales over the same period is seasonal and the spike in sales in March is seasonal. Here's the % change in new escrows between December and January for the last six years:

2002: 112.4%
2003: 82.4%
2004: 36.8%
2005: 37.9%
2006: 36.2%
2007: 51.8%

The spike is real, just as it is real every year. As Sippn said, new escrows are down 11.9% yoy. So we start the year with new & closed escrows below last year levels while inventory is above last year levels. Any guesses as to how that will affect prices?

Lander said...

Agent Bubble-

I think there is somewhat of a consensus that price per sq ft is a better measurement than average or median price. The problem from a consumer perspective is that we don't have ready access to such information.

The SacBee publishes it only by zip code. Golyon has it, but the information is old (btw they just added December data). John Lockwood reports on it but only sporadically and I don't recall seeing it graphed so we could see trends.

We have plenty of sources on median price. What would be nice is if you could publish the $/SF & % YOY change early each month for the prior month. I don't know how far back you can go in the MLS system, but it would also be nice to compare it to the 2005 $/SF peak and also have the subsequent monthly figures for 2005, 2006, and 2007.