Friday, February 02, 2007

SL's Water Cooler - February 2007



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31 comments:

Lander said...

Post off-topic links, observations, and stories here. Please read the comment policy before posting.

annon1 said...

Let's have a contest!!

I would like to see everyone's opinion of 1) when the bottom will occur and (pick a specific week/yr) and 2) what the 50% median price will be at the bottom.

The winner will be determined by the housing tracker website info for Sacramento.

Sorry, but winner gets bragging rights only.

My guess - $370,000, April 1, 2008

patient renter said...

Judging just from history (past busts), I'll guess bottom will be reached around 2011-212, although this may be too conservative given the size of the boom that just occured.

Median price by then, I'll guess around $300,000. It could have been lower, but 2011 is a long ways out (inflation).

By the way, before anyone calls my prediction ridiculous, you don't have to look very far back for how long a peak to bottom takes in a real estate bust.

annon1 said...

I won't call your guess ridiculous, but your 24 month range doesn't qualify for the contest. Common and pick a specific time. Pick the bottom.

new home owner said...

I just puchased a home in Natomas for $420k for a 1-story 2400 sq. house. was that a good deal? I couldn't find anything that sold anywhere near $175/sq foot for a house built in 2000 or newer.

i'm ready to get blasted by all the housing experts so please don't hold back in your criticisms.

Gwynster said...

Well I guess I'll start off with the obvious? How long can you tread water?

AgentBubble said...

new home owner--I searched back to 8/06, but didn't find your 2400 sq. ft home purchase of $425,000. Was it new? I did find one at 2258 sq ft and one at 2242 sq ft. As for the $177 sq ft (425,000/2400 sq ft), if you're happy, then that's all that matters right? But, I didn't really see anything over 2400 sq ft that was less than $177 a sq ft.

Max said...

But, I didn't really see anything over 2400 sq ft that was less than $177 a sq ft.

I call Troll. Are you trying to provoke us? :)

Max said...

Hint: For maximum provocation, include financing details and imply that you're an "investor":

"Last month I purchased a $400,000 second home in Natomas with a 100% neg-am no-doc loan. How hard will it be to rent out? I need to get around $1500/month..."

:)

Gwynster said...

Didn't someone a while back say they were trying to talk a friend out of buying a place in Natomas for 420k?

Also, I think there was someone trolling on CL's housing forum using the 420k figure for Natomas.

Gwynster said...

Ha! found'em

is this a good deal? < SacVulture > 12/20 11:42:34

Hi all -

I'm a cautious first time buyer scoping the Natomas area. I was looking at homes near the Arco arena off of Innovator and Endeavor Way. Is that a good neighborhood?

I've seen two listings there, both of which have sold between $425k - $440k. Here's the quick specs:

single-story ranch
3-car garage
2367 sq. feet
4bed / 2 bath 6000-7100 sq. foot lots

Any help would be greatly appreciated!

AgentBubble said...

Great job Gwynster...I found this in MLS:

2248 Citrine Way
Listed 1/18/07
$499K/$211 Per SF

Also, I double checked and found "new home owner's" home in MLS. Tax stats are sketchy, but it looks like Sovereign Bank bought it for $374,515 on 6/6/06. If he paid $420K for it 7 months later, looks like the seller did pretty well considering the market.

I'll put this in the "check back in 6 months" category and see what it's worth then...Pretty sure I know the answer though ;-)

paranoid renter said...

Cool article today in the Bee on Bay Area migration. Experts think it will continue. I think so too. Article reports that prices are closing (based on percentage) but that's not true because in absolute dollars the price difference is the same. When a home in the Bay area was 500K, it was 250K in placer. Now that it's 800K in the Bay area, it's still only 550K in placer. The $ difference has stayed the same, so it won't affect those selling to move here. It may affect those renting and then hoping to buy when they move here.

Anonymous said...

I bought an abandoned house for $20k and sold it for $129,500. Cleaned out the junk and sold to a rehabber. Took two months to find, one week to sell.

~Caddis

anon1137 said...

RE: Sacbee article on Bay Area migration

I think that what's going on is that most of the people who are moving to Sac from the Bay Area are the ones who can't afford to buy a home or can't afford the standard of living there - people on fixed incomes (retirees), people with lower skills or incomes (the first version of the article mentioned that Mr. Turner was in retail), and single-income couples and families. The problem is that many of these BA people have higher skills and incomes than many Sac area residents, like many state govt workers. So the lower income BA residents got pushed into Sac, and they, in turn are pushing the lower income Sac residents into . . . where? places like Topeka and Cleveland?

Here's another question: if BA retirees can't afford the standard of living in the BA, will Sac retirees (including something like 50% of the state government workforce within the next 5 years) be able to afford the standard of living in Sac?

Perfect Storm said...

If so many well to do families have moved to Sacreamento, then why have so many schools closed down due to decrease enrollment.

anon1137 said...

Bob Shallit: Nonstop city travel/ExpressJet will offer direct flights to seven midsize destinations
http://www.sacbee.com/103/story/117796.html

And ExpressJet has arrived just in time to move us displaced Sac residents further east (but no direct flights to Topeka yet).

Max said...

I think that what's going on is that most of the people who are moving to Sac from the Bay Area are the ones who can't afford to buy a home or can't afford the standard of living there...

The income stats bear this out. I compared the median household income for transplants listed in the article with the median for the county they left. The transplant median was lower for all the counties except Los Angeles:

% diff County
- 7.97% Santa Clara
- 7.36% Alameda
-19.47% Solano
-12.15% Contra Costa
- 3.91% San Mateo
+ 0.58% Los Angeles
- 2.35% San Joaquin
-23.15% San Diego
-10.85% San Francisco
-14.88% Sonoma

Sacramento is definitely getting the "poorer" residents of these counties...

paranoid renter said...

>>>>>
Sacramento is definitely getting the "poorer" residents of these counties...
>>>>>>>

Maybe Sacramento, but not Placer. Placer (especially Roseville and Rocklin, can't really vouch of Lincoln) has gotten and will continue to get well-to-do folks.

Sippn said...

Perfect Storm - you're looking at school closings in areas that young population is decreasing...why?

Talk a look at any San Juan District school or most Sac City Schools, then compare to Folsom or Rocklin High Schools and the answer should be apparent.

School facilities get paid for from growth - new home fees. Old areas refuse to pay for school upkeep and modernization of real significance. You don't keep up your school, your area becomes less desirable, fewer families with kids move there, etc.

Gwynster said...

Folks,

I wasn't able to make to the auction. I'd been sick for a week and my lungs are still messed up. I hope someone was able to go.

Max said...

I wasn't able to make to the auction. I'd been sick for a week and my lungs are still messed up. I hope someone was able to go.

No big deal, Gwen. This is definitely not worth killing yourself over. It might not have done any good anyway. Got an Anon comment on my blog:

Link

I went to watch the auction however I was turned away at the door. Only people with cashiers checks were allowed in to the auction.

At the time when the auction was supposed to start, The room was practically deserted inside. Maybe a total of 7-10 registered bidders.

7 Registered bidders for 6 houses doesn't work out. To have a great auction, an auction company typically wants 7 registered bidders per home. They were no where near that number.

So I'm guessing that very few if any sold.

Why? The minimum bids were WAY to high.

patient renter said...

"So I'm guessing that very few if any sold.

Why? The minimum bids were WAY to high."

Safe guess. I don't know why, but this is disappointing to hear, even though it's exactly what I guessed was going to happen (nothing would sell at those prices).

Anonymous said...

No house in Natomas is worth anything over $350K. You paid too much. Esp considering most of that area is in a serious flood zone.

Duplex84 said...

The Elk Grove house auction was covered on KOVR13 last night. According to an eyewitness a house or two sold at below minimum bid, which means West Coast Auctions was given instructions to unload the houses at whatever bids came in. No media or looky loos were allowed to observe. There was a danger of course of '05 & '06 buyers in the same neighborhood stirring things up. On of these guys was interviewed on camera and considered himself "screwed" when he heard what these homes (with six figure upgrades) purportedly sold for. When the county releases the numbers we'll find out what really went down. Make no doubt about it these were comp busters!

Perfect Storm said...

The auction will be a 30% to 40% haircut for that neighborhood in one year.

Were easily on track for a 50% decline by 2009.

poof said...

Super Sunday - KFBK Real Estate Show with Mike Lyon

For those who didn't tune in, here are some excerpts from Mike Lyon's appearance on the show today.

Quote 1 - "Buyer's are actually human again"
Quote 2 - "If you buy today you'll be back in the black in 2 years" {His 5 second forecast at the end of the show]. Great to know our local expert is telling folks it's okay to lose money on your home purchase for 2 years.
Quote 3 - "Don't use a buyer's broker because they don't have any inventory. You must find the best realtor that God put on the planet to sort through those 10,000 homes listed"
Quote 4 - "I predict prices will fall another 10% in 2007" (So, this guy predicted prices would rise by 10% in 2006 and was off by 20% since they actually fell by at least 10%. Guess if he's off by another 20% then we'll surely see a 30% drop in house prices in 2007.

Very little mentioned about the true facts of this downturn and how ironic that the energizer bunny host keeps stammering that buyers need to get all the facts for the biggest purchase of their lives and conveniently ignores the most important factors. Nothing about affordability and mortgage fraud, but he is seeing the light as to the toxic loans. But why keep pushing another bad product, reverse mortgages? This Mr. Positive spinmeister needs to back off on his caffeine and sugar intake. Delusional.

waiting_for_the_fall said...

so, are the spammers coming out of the woodwork now?

Gwynster said...

Not sure if anyone has posted this yet

http://sacrealstats.blogspot.com/2007/02/some-auction-results.html

Apparently the auction flopped and the new comps are 125 to 175 per sqft.

drwende said...

Desperate realtors now sign up for feng shui and other motivational tools:

link

anon1137 said...

Desperate realtors now sign up for feng shui and other motivational tools

Great, more overpriced listings, all with their front doors painted red.