Thursday, March 15, 2007

"Bakersfield to Sacramento Will Be Hardest Hit"

From the Redding Record Searchlight:

Home values in California will drop 2 percent in 2007, the top economist for the California Association of Realtors said Wednesday.

Leslie Appleton-Young told members of the Shasta Association of Realtors that the state's inland corridor that stretches from Bakersfield to Sacramento will be hardest hit. That's because there's a glut of unsold new homes that need to sell before the market turns in those regions, she said.
"Four years of double-digit growth -- that wasn't sustainable. We kind of knew that because incomes were not going up that fast," Appleton-Young said Wednesday.

The biggest challenge for real estate agents today, she said, is setting appropriate expectations for buyers and sellers. Buyers have to accept that there won't be a fire sale of homes. You're not going to snag a $600,000 home for $400,000, Appleton-Young said.


RMB said...

When did these shills for the REIC become believable? Why should we trust what they say now? For me the key here is this is LAY's OPINION and like certain body parts everyone has one. There is no basis for this opinion, so time will tell who is right - LAY or the people who have actually looked at the data and the market and predict something much greater than a 2% decline in the state.

Patient Renter said...

"You're not going to snag a $600,000 home for $400,000, Appleton-Young said."

I'm not even going to bother proving her wrong. Her opinion and statements are worth about as any paid spokesperson.

Jeff said...

PR, you're right on!
Is "snag" a technical term used by realtors? I could already tell with a hyphenated name she wasn't too bright. What a moron, you go up to Lincoln and Rocklin, some places in Roseville and Folsom and you sure as shit can get a home for $200K off. BTW, shit is a technical term.

rocklin renter said...

I think we should find out what she claimed last year, compare it to actual, and find how many % she was off.

Then, multiply this year's "forecast" by that percent, and you may get in to the ballpark.

I'm guessing she was 500% or so off in her guess for 2006.

That would make the rough guess what, 10% or so drop region wide.

That seems a little closer to what I see as reality given the current market situation.

And I'd call it a conservative estimate at that...

Bakersfield Bubble said...

"You're not going to snag a $600,000 home for $400,000, Appleton-Young said."

I argree with here!

These homes will go for $300,000

Real said...
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
Patient Renter said...

"With a Fed rate cut on the horizon"

Maybe you missed the inflation numbers this morning? Check marketwatch or bloomgerg. A rate cut is by no means, on the horizon.

RMB said...


There is almost always an increase in sales from Jan to Feb. Comparing Feb sales to Feb 2006 they were only down 18.6% with a price fall of 1.4% yoy in Sac county. One data point does not a trend make. As I stated above, everyone has an opinion on what is going to happen, time will tell who is right and who is wrong in the whole matter.

rocklin renter said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
ralphk said...

I wonder if before the raise she said - you're not going to sell a $400,000 house for $600,000?

Probably not. After all, real estate only goes up.

Patient Renter said...

I'm not sure what increase in sales is being talked about. The SacBee is just now reporting a decrease in year over year sales, citing dataquick:

Month to month sales could and probably would obviously increase, as a seasonal norm. Trolling, I suppose.

Happy Sam said...

"You're not going to snag a $600,000 home for $400,000, Appleton-Young said."

In June 2008 you will

drwende said...

Leslie Appleton-Young is the gal who claimed, in December 2005, that rising inventories wouldn't mean lower prices because "it's demand and supply."

Also in late 2005, she said there would be NO drop in prices -- instead, prices along the coast would flatten and prices inland would rise.

Gwynster said...

From the CNN Money piece, Gneration Risk on Thursday, March 15, 2007
Real estate can only fall 10% to 20%, right? Right?

Someone wrote in from our lovely area with some comments:

"We cashed-out from our Sacramento, CA suburb (Roseville) at the peak in summer of 2005. Today's motivated sellers have dropped prices $100K (15%) in our same subdivision. There simply isn't the high-wage job base there to cover prices that were run-up by junk loans, buy-now-or-never hysteria, and unbridled lust for luxury homes. Game over, man.

Posted By Greg Ebert, Portland OR : 5:06 PM "

Gwynster said...

As to CAY's commentary, the only thing I can say is the woman doth protest too much.

anon1137 said...

Calm down, you guys. Realtors (and LA-Y) aren't trying to keep home prices high. Realtors have as much disdain for sellers as they do for buyers - they're only interested in the churn. In their world, the worst thing that could happen is for sales to stagnate. That's why she doesn't want buyers and sellers expectations to get too far out of whack, because that's when deals don't happen. They could give a s%$t if prices are high or prices or low, as long as homes are selling ($ale$ = commi$$ion$).

paranoid renter said...

Rents just went up 5% in my apartment complex. :-(

Perfect Storm said...

We will be at 23,000 homes for sale in the Sacramento Area by August. There will be a sea of for sale signs for as far as the eye can see.

Gwynster said...

That's exactly why I downsized my life so when they do that, I can move in a matter of days.

Sippn said...

Paranoid renter - tell your landord he's nuts and give notice... Perfect storm will help you.

Dead Cat Bounce stats per Sac Co MLS...

Feb vs Jan
New pendings (escrows) up 15%
Med price up 3.5%
Inventory down
# sales up

Inventory down
Med price down 2.2% - not bad - wheres that 20%?


Could be that the lack of volume in the lower price ranges is keeping the med price from dropping but I'm just guessing.

I don't think that the people who make the buying decision (mostly women) really care what L A-Y says except Gwynster.

Perfect Storm said...

As many as 300 Sacramento-area Ameriquest employees were given their walking papers Thursday morning in another sign of the slumping sub-prime mortgage market.

Hey Sippin can any these people help with moving?

Housing Doom 2007.

Gwynster said...

Hey Sippin,

Actually, I don't really care. I find it humrous in a dark, O' Henry-ish, "the school bus ran over my cat" sort of way.

bearmaster said...

Gee, Leslie Appleton-Young was assuring us just a few short months ago that inventories were declining. She is many days late and many dollars short.

These realtor associations keep revising their already worthless forecasts so as to render them even less credible, if they haven't already sunk to the bottom in credibility already.

Maybe Appleton-Young is David Lereah in drag.