Monday, April 16, 2007

'I didn't figure they'd go up this fast.'

Sacramento County Default Notices, Q1 2007 per DataQuick: 3,234

  • Change from Q1 2006: +185%

From the LATimes:

The number of Californians losing their homes to foreclosure rose in the first three months of the year to the highest level in a decade, a real estate information service said today, providing grim evidence that the shake-out in real estate is nowhere near over. Foreclosures totaled 11,033, up 802% from the placid levels of early 2006, according to DataQuick Information Services in La Jolla.
...
"I figured they'd go up," said DataQuick analyst John Karevoll. "I didn't figure they'd go up this fast."

The default and foreclosure totals varied widely by area. Generally, the places with the cheapest housing--such as the Inland Empire and Central Valley--fared the worst.

From News10:
Some 3,400 Sacramento County property owners faced foreclosure in the first quarter of 2007, up nearly 200 percent from the same period last year. In sheer volume of defaults, Sacramento County is in the top ten nationwide. The figures from Fair Oaks-based Foreclosures.com represent filings from lenders against homeowners who've defaulted on their loans. A notice of default is the first step before the homes can be sold at auction.

The hardest-hit county in California based on percentage was Yolo, with a nearly 400-percent increase from the year before. San Joaquin, Solano and Yuba counties all experienced at least a 200-percent increase in defaults.

15 comments:

Gwynster said...

That Yolo county number is music to my ears!

Lander said...

From sacbee.com:

Notices of default, those early warnings of financial stress and missed mortgage payments, reached their highest levels ever in six of the region's eight counties during the first three months of 2007
...
First quarter foreclosure numbers also reached historic highs across much of the region - in Sacramento, Placer, El Dorado, Yolo and Sutter counties, DataQuick reported.

DataQuick said 1,505 homeowners in Amador, El Dorado, Nevada, Placer, Sacramento, Sutter, Yolo and Yuba counties lost their houses to foreclosure during January, February and March. That's up from 865 the previous three months. DataQuick reported only 143 foreclosures in the eight county-region during the first quarter of 2006.

Sippn said...

When they say "highest ever" they didn't start recording until 1992, so they don't know.

Dataquick also said they had higher statewide numbers in '96 and '97.

Gwynster said...

Sac Bee had this piece on it too
http://www.sacbee.com/103/story/155888.html

Patient Renter said...

"I figured they'd go up," said DataQuick analyst John Karevoll. "I didn't figure they'd go up this fast."

Shows what the "analysis" from these DataQuick guys is worth. Just do the numbers and shut up. No analysis, thanks.

Cmyst said...

You know, it hit me while reading this that I may have made the best financial decision of my life last year when I decided to pay off my debt with what I made from selling my condo, instead of trying to buy a house. The only places I found remotely appealing were all well over 400K. With my down payment, they'd still be well over 300K, and with my consumer debt payments as well as a mortgage, I'd have been on a terrible treadmill. Although my intention was to purchase a home I'd live in for the rest of my work career and maybe beyond, it still would have galled me enormously to have lost all that equity and squandered the chance to pay off my consumer debt.
I am now tracking 5 homes that I would be interested in purchasing, and it's going to be interesting to see what happens with them. One has already been on the market for nearly 6 months, and one has just been on the market for 2 days. 2 appear to be close to foreclosure, with the owners doing oddball things like lowering the price to below what they paid for the places, then raising it back again, then lowering it -- I know if they can't sell these places without losing money (and they can't - God I love the tubes, the information that is out there!) they'll walk.

john said...

Wrong sippn. Check the graph on Calculated Risk. Looks to me like 07 has eclipsed both '96 and '97.

Perfect Storm said...

So we have 1700 sales last month and around 1200 houndred notices of default, wow in the future we may have a one to one relationship with these two figures.

slow burn said...

If you want to find out if a property you're tracking has it's property taxes current, go to this site:
http://assessorparcelviewer.saccounty.net/website/assessor/custom/SearchMain.aspx?tb=1

Type in the address, then go to this site:
http://www.eproptax.saccounty.net/parcellookup.asp

Type in the parcel number that is in the upper right corner from the first link.
Too bad they don't have it in one place, like other counties.

Sippn said...

John, sorry I was quoting Dataquick - bad source? Oh, Calculated Risk is estimating the final 75% of the year - I like them, but thats a big assumption, and they're taking about Notices of Default. Dataquick was talking about Foreclosures first, then Notices of Default, we're comparing bad apples with rotten apples.

But I get your drift, it could be really bad if it continues this way. A lot of people could loose their homes.

Sippn said...

Patient Renter - thank you! More trashing in Calculated Risk.

norcaljeff said...

Sippin, why can't you just take these articles at face value instead of spinnging your pro-RE agenda? BTW, my old blog account got hacked...I was wondering what Sippin was doing all weekend LOL/

Patient Renter said...

People having differing opinions is a good thing, as long as they support their ideas with factual evidence and don't pretend to ignore evidence contrary to their opinion.

Sittin' Out This One said...

NorCalJeff,

I agree with Patient Renter. Sippn brings an important perspective to this blog. He has astute observations. And NCJ, where would any of us be if we took everything at face value and did not try to challange it. Lander and Max can answer that even better than you or I.

norcaljeff said...

Well this is what I see from Sipping....
Sac Bee headline - Home Foreclosures at record levels

Sippin's reply to this on the Landing blog:
Guys, they spelled forclosers wrong so I don't see that this is a value article. RE is undervalued.

Not sure I see that as an alternative opinion.