Wednesday, April 18, 2007

Stockton #1, Modesto #5, Sacramento #6, Bakersfield #10

From RealtyTrac's Press Release:

California reported 31,434 foreclosure filings in March, the most of any state and an increase of 36 percent from the previous month. The state's total was nearly triple the number reported a year ago and accounted for 21 percent of the nation's total. The surge in foreclosure activity pushed California's foreclosure rate to one foreclosure filing for every 389 households -- third highest among all the states and nearly twice the national average.
Six out of the 10 cities with the nation's highest metro foreclosure rates were located in California. A 137 percent spike in foreclosure activity boosted the foreclosure rate in Stockton, Calif., to one foreclosure filing for every 128 households -- the highest metro foreclosure rate in the nation and more than six times the national average. Other California cities with foreclosure rates in the top 10 included Vallejo-Fairfield at No. 3, Modesto at No. 5, Sacramento at No. 6, Riverside-San Bernardino at No. 7 and Bakersfield at No. 10.


Patient Renter said...

The funny thing about forclosures is that many potential buyers see big forclosure numbers as a reason to buy *now*... at least this is the case with a few folks I know.

Diggin Deeper said...


Really? I would have thought the opposite unless its their intent ot buy from the bank. Some will buy or sell in any market but when foreclosures are rising it would seem to be too big a negative to get many out there that actually buy.

lexi said...

The foreclosure "bargains" of
today will turn into Monkey's on
the Back's of buyers.. I know
.. I bought a supposed Bargain
foreclosure in the early 90's and
was stuck upside down for over
5 years, watching the value decline
till it rose enough in 2001 for
me to unload my Monkey. Lesson
learned for me.. I'll wait untill
I know I'm not catching a falling
knife. No more monkeys and supposed bargains for me!

Diggin Deeper said...


Having had first hand experience I doubt you'll be buying any more monkeys. But keep a look out for the gems as you'll probably have your pick at some point down the road.

The hardest part, imho, is knowing when the bottom's in. Inventories at normal levels for Sacramento, along with prices that reflect rising comps, ought to good indicators but this market could have several legs down before things really settle. Way, way too much speculative overhand to make a commitment anytime soon.

Markets tend to overcorrect and in this case "when it looks too good to be true", it might just be the right time to dive in. This is just an opinion.

I'd like to know what others think about the "when" to get back in.

Max said...

Wow, Stockton beat out Detroit and Denver. When will the national press begin daily sob-story reports?

Gwynster said...

Is Stockton/Modesto still the car theft capitol if the US? I haven't seen recent numbers or if I have I've forgotten them.

Patient Renter said...

"Really? I would have thought the opposite unless its their intent ot buy from the bank. "

Yea - Basically people are stupid and/or use Realtor logic to guide their decisions. I think the logic is that forclosures simply indicate a buyers market, and therefore that it is a good time to buy anything, forclosure or not.

lexi said...

diggin deeper,
I'm waiting to buy but in no hurry.

Some people might not think it's
going to happen but I'm planning to
jump in when prices get to 2001 or
2 pricing. And if they don't get
there then I'm better off renting.
I'd rather throw my money away
renting with the luxury of being
able to move than throw MORE money
away and be stuck in a home I can't

norcaljeff said...

I see many of the condos are already back to the 2002 prices.

fishtaco said...

Does someone have price per square foot values for the preceeding years? It would be nice to know where each county was with respect to the current values.

Jeff said...

"There is no way out of this box except for the asset prices on which loans are being written to come back down to realistic levels."

I was told home prices can not drop quickly like the stock market, people have to sell and move etc. Maybe not in one week but let's try 10%-15% in 3-6 months starting today. I would never have imagined such a market as this, the massive foreclosures and short sales combined with many desperate sellers all pouring into an already crowded market that just locked out 20% of possible buyers, amazing. The banks and builders have to unload their inventories and there is only one way, drop prices bigtime. That will smart.

NoBailout said...


New blogger here. I've been reading for awhile and love the site.

To answer your question, we purchased in 1998 in Elk Grove and at the time most communities were around $85 - $95 per square foot. We purchased a new home and paid $78 p/sf with upgrades.

Gwynster said...

$78 per sqft? Holy Cow

Homes are 300 to 400 /sqft here in Davis. I'm waiting for $130 sqft approx.

Gwynster said...

I spotted this on Craiglist. Is Paladin still around?

WatchingTheBubble said...

Okay, guys, here's my problem. I need to buy a house (or at least my accountant says I do), but I'm waiting for 2001 prices, too. Is it crazy just to offer 2001 prices to sellers -- will my agent think I'm crazy? I sat out this housing market since arriving in CA in 2004 because I thought it was absolutely crazy. I see a house I like -- it's been on the market since last summer -- but, for the life of me, I can't bring myself to pay what they're asking when I know there are many houses in the same neighborhood that were purchased in 2005 (height of the boom) and will probably have their mortgages reset next year. Advice? Just continue to pay the IRS (high income tax bracket) and wait for the lower prices? What are people who are forced into buying doing now?

I wish there were a homebuyer's cartel in California. Maybe there is and no one invited me!


RMB said...


Why is your accountant telling you to buy a house? If its for the mortgage tax break, I highly recommend getting a new accountant.
The mortgage tax break is real but it is also a sham. You get pennies back on the dollar (Top marginal tax bracket), while you are making insane interest payments to the bank. Another thing to watch out for is the AMT. If you fall prey to this beast, there goes your deduction.
My advice is to do a little research on what the mortgage deduction is actually worth and then go back and talk to your accountant armed with some facts. If he still reccomends you buying in this overpriced market, get a new accountant.

Gwynster said...

Ditto what RMB said. I remember doing the math on the deductions and unless you can find a mortgage for the same amount as renting, it's doesn't pencil out. And frankly that downpayment money is better in the bank these days since the return on RE is crap.

But this is all simple stuff, your accountant should know better.

And offering 2001 prices? Lowball to your hearts content! You're trying to buy a house, not host a camp sing-along. As someone told me recently, if you aren't slightly embarrassed by your offer, then it's too much. This bubble sure has turned me into a tough and bitter chick >; )

WatchingTheBubble said...

RMB and Gwynster,

Thanks! I was telling my husband we might end up paying more to get the house than we would if we just paid the da*n tax! And, you're right Gwynster, when I am ready to make that offer, I am going to lowball. The worst they can say is no! And then I'll just walk down the street to the neighbors who are also selling their houses and make the same offer . . .