Tuesday, May 29, 2007

Portrait of a Soft Landing?


S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices (pdf)

7 comments:

Sippn said...

Please Lander this deserves some explaination for some... This highly acclaimed index shows for the first time since '91 a YOY decrease in "same home" values.

A hard landing for anybody having to sell now who bought a year ago with a 1.4% decrease in value showing.


While the slope looks severe, it is just now crossing "0"


My question to you'all is, what is offsetting all the really poor performing real estate that keeps this number up where it is? (get me some of that please)

Max said...

Here's a good one for you Lander:

Squatter Causes Anxiety For Neighbors

Diggin Deeper said...

From Reuters:

"Home loan demand off as rates hit 7-month high"

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20070530/bs_nm/usa_mortgages_mba_dc_1;_ylt=Au_s5I9KUeCqXTXfHBvcUfkE1vAI

Exerpt:
'An unwieldy supply of homes for sale and significantly tighter underwriting standards from lenders, ignited by the rapid meltdown of the subprime mortgage market, is paving the way for a difficult spring housing season.'

Sippn

"While the slope looks severe, it is just now crossing "0".

Talk about a falling knife! The graph just crossing "0" in a straight down pattern isn't what I'd call a rosy picture for future pricing. Resembles the early 90's pattern but much steeper in its fall.

I would want to see the graph level off before jumping into this mess?

Cow_tipping said...

I am glad you're back.
Keep at it.
Cool.
Cow_tipping.

Sippn said...

Yea but in the early '90s it maxed out at -3 or -4% for about a year - not bad, but also not really indicative of the problems at the s__t end of the market or the good end.

The property I sold then at a small profit, is worth
2-1/2-3x today.

Should see if my stock did the same thing, but I can't live in it.

Diggin Deeper said...

Can't go back to it either...The upswing through the 80's that prompted the falling market of the early 90's has no comparison to where we've been over the last 7 years. The numbers pale in comparison with regard to phony wealth creation, speculation, and extreme valuations that drove our recent "bubble". Our recent numbers are as big as any bubble we've seen in this country including the dot.com explosion in the early 2000's.

Sippn, I am a little puzzled by your comments about a hard landing for those who bought a year ago. If you are talking strictly valuations I guess one might have to agree.

However, valuations are nothing more than one factor (of many) driving prices north or south. Its those other forces in addition to valuation that will likely dictate what we'll be paying for homes in Sacramento

Imho, the graph shown needs no explanation when one considers where this market has gotten to at this point... and where it is likely headed based on the credit crunch facing those that didn't "fixed finance" their properties. And since Sacramento was in the upper band of those cities that experienced huge increases over the last several year, there's good reason to believe its correction will be just as severe...if not more severe based on its limited economic base.

aggiealum said...

Is it spring yet? I was going to wait until spring, when traditionally the housing market takes off, to see if the housing market should bottom. All I hear is inventory up, sales down, prices down. I guess the groundhog was wrong this year? Spring should be later than normal? THink the real estate industry is going say something like due to global warming, a paradoxical weather phenomenon has occurred this year: spring will come much, much later than usual. So those hoping for a spring rebound should continue to wait.