Friday, May 25, 2007

SL's Water Cooler - May 2007 (part 2)

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22 comments:

norcaljeff said...

Lander,

How about a new feature? I'd like to see posted the idiot quote of the month, and this can come from a realtor, mortgage broker, economist, or other person directly involved with the RE industry. I have my first nominee from today's Bee:

-Here's a silver lining most of us may not have considered: If the thought of paying $3.35 a gallon keeps you from traveling this weekend, why not just stay home and shop for a house? "Who knows? With gas prices, they might be out looking instead of camping," says Faye Roediger of Coldwell Banker in Elk Grove. She has three open houses in the works for this weekend.
http://tinyurl.com/28d2re - Sac Bee

So this "realtor" says because gas prices are so extremely high, people will stay home this holiday weekend and buy an overpriced home instead. Anyone understand this logic? I must have been out sick that day my economics professor talked about this. I sure hope this lady doesn't also give financial advice to her clients. And full service realtors get mad at those cut rate realtors saying their the embarrassment to their profession. Well, Miss Roediger might just take the cake.

Patient Renter said...

A friend who lives in Texas today sent me a link to the News 10 video on youtube that is floating around blogs today. It was included in today's post on Mish's blog. If you haven't seen it yet, it's basically discusses how a house somewhere in Sac couldn't even sell at 50% off.

Cmyst said...

PR, can you post the link? I just went to the News 10 website and I can't find it.

norcaljeff said...

PR, that's the Richfield home in the Meadows story that couldn't sell on auction for 1/2 of it's $526K purchase price. That's priceless! Glad to see it's making national news.

Patient Renter said...

I have no idea when this aired, but it just recently popped up on youtube.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dgtpxBPYnvE

smf said...

I have seen that News 10 video in other places as well, including Housing Panic.

What is not portrayed by those who don't know, is the absolutely crappy location for those houses.

Till people realize how ghetto that area is, the complete stupidity is not readily available.

I would love to see statistics for speculation on new developments. I give Anatolia as example, where they built large amounts of track home mansions.

Are there also statistics that indicate how much housing should have been built (according to actual population data) as opposed to how much was actually built?

Because of prices and quantity, just because they built it, it doesn't mean that people will come.

I will give a prediction that even if prices go down to the levels they should be at, you STILL will not have enough people to fill them out.

dvobell said...

Hey NorCalJeff,

Here's a (moldy) peach:

http://tinyurl.com/338vun

"NAR President Pat V. Combs said in a statement that the flattening in home prices is encouraging.

'It appears the worst of the price correction is behind us,' she said. 'More stable home prices and declining mortgage interest rates are increasing buying power, which should encourage potential buyers who've been on the sidelines.'"

...oh. my. GOD, what a mealy-mouthed, propagandizing, plateful of Crap. What affordability numbers are YOU looking at, Pat?
The worst is behind us? What data could have POSSIBLY led her to that conclusion??

'Flattening'? 'More stable home prices'? Huh? Possible Turret's?

Her psychic ability to absolutely CHANNEL David Liareah is uncanny.

"Pat V. BlacknDecker" is more like it. What a Tool.

Cmyst said...

Thanks for posting the link, PR.

SMF said "What is not portrayed by those who don't know, is the absolutely crappy location for those houses.

Till people realize how ghetto that area is, the complete stupidity is not readily available."

The Meadows will drop way more than 50% of "value". And it will also deteriorate rapidly -- it already is. The old Arts/Crafts and Vics that you find in Oak Park have taken a lot of abuse for decades, and yet their bones are still good.
They can be rehabbed. This stucco crap that we build now, not so much.

Diggin Deeper said...

Watch the surrounding areas and zip codes as this malaise spreads. Imho, location only plays in a stable or growing market. When you have one that's as bad as this one, everyone pays no matter where you live. It becomes a matter of degree... "My neighborhood home prices fell 50%, yours fell only falling 40%".

Resets are now in full swing with a peak still months away. Auctions don't produce results even at deep discounts so inventory at the bank is rising each month. New home builders are generously dropping prices and giving away huge incentives just to get people to look without much result. Even the positive new home sales data which has been cheered by NAR is mired with a caveat that dropping prices really do matter!

As ugly as this market is, where are the signs that its bottomed and starting to recover? The combination of inventory supply, with added future foreclosures, and unwilling buyers, makes this a market to stay clear of at any cost. Inventories are headed toward a twelve month supply and this level might unprecedented in the Sacramento area. It all sets up for lower prices ahead and continued weak sales. 50% off? Even at that level there weren't any buyers at the auction. Really does reveal how overpriced the Sacramento market really is.

Gwynster said...

There are homes that I'd buy at 50% off but they sure aren't anywhere near Natomas, Elk Grove, Pocket, or Laguna.

The news release for April from the CAR was pretty downbeat:
http://www.car.org/index.php?id=Mzc0ODY=

“Home sales decreased 27.8 percent in April in California compared with the same period a year ago".

'Throughout the state inventory levels have increased to their highest levels in recent years, giving buyers more time to view a greater variety of homes and sellers who set realistic prices an edge in the market.’"

They pretty much said prices were up slightly because nothing in the lower price range is moving. Homes on the coast are moving but inland sales are really quiet.

norcaljeff said...

The NAR can make a pile of hot steamy sh%t sound appealing. I wonder what level of hell realtor liars will spend eternity. They make the Enron execs sound like preschool kids.

Gwynster said...

Well I had a vision of hell yesterday. I tried to just post about it here but it was just too long so it's on my blog now.

Cmyst said...

Well, here we go again with a slimey Realtor profiting herself at the expense of 1) the law, 2) her neighbors. I have to agree with both reader's comments to this story.
Check it out: http://tinyurl.com/284xf5

Gwynster said...

Nice reporting. I can hardly believe this is our SacBee actually doing investigating reporting.

Without knowing more, I can certainly say this woman looks pretty guilty.

anon1137 said...

The standoff between sellers and buyers is getting truly ridiculous. I know of some properties in ESac and Midtown that have been on the market, off and on, for almost 2 years! You'd think these sellers would get a clue - the party is over, folks.

I wish I had full access to the MLS so I could find the all-time DOM leaders. There must be some listings that have been sitting for 3 or 4 years, with short breaks to change the listing number, of course.

Patient Renter said...

I'm impressed with that SacBee article. I don't remember having seen real investigative reporting from the Bee in years. I agree with most of the comments - sounds she should be nailed to the wall, but I wouldn't expect anything to come of it.

Gwynster said...

great FB CL ad
This one of the new Springlake homes. Notice the twin bed and tv in the bottom left photo.
http://sacramento.craigslist.org/apa/340170869.html

Patient Renter said...

Good lord that craigslist house is ugly on the outside.

Patient Renter said...

Noticed another bank owned sign popped up on my street (in Folsom) right next door to a house that has had a bank owned sign up for several months. The newly advertised house looked to have been sitting empty for a long time... further evidence that banks are either holding back inventory or are too overwhelemed to get all of their homes on the market.

norcaljeff said...

I'm in a 30 y.o. custom housing development in Roseville. I've now seen 5 repos, the latest is about 5BD 4BA, 5000 sq. ft. $800K home which has been owned by the same family for about 20 years. Tells me how fast 20 years of payments can unravel.

Gwynster said...

More good stuff from the Bee

Auction of bank-owned homes planned
http://www.sacbee.com/103/story/199844.html#comments_here

'Home loan lenders, stuck with rising numbers of repossessed homes, will auction 242 houses next month to bidders in Sacramento, Modesto and San Mateo.'

San Mateo?! I though the BA was different >; )

John M said...

Hi Lander,

I see you were our first ever commenter a year ago today at http://housingdoom.com/ . Well, we're still ticking over. How's CA these days?