Saturday, June 02, 2007

SL's Water Cooler - June 2007

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waiting_for_the_fall said...

The yield curve is almost back to normal. It's been inverted for about 6 months.

aggiealum said...

Anyone check out Centex's lowest pricest of the year sale at Springlake in Woodland today? Just curious what kind of incentives they're giving. Looks like they knocked off about $30K on the asking price, said they'd buy down the interest, and include upgrades. Wondering if anyone knew if they were also buying back the mello roos?

Bakersfield Bubble said...

Two updates on the local RE mogul. Who now faces (along with family and former employess) $11 million in loan defaults.

Sittin' Out This One said...

Here are some selected quotes from the Terms and Conditions of the US Home Auction later this month!

All Properties have a Reserve Price.
The starting bid is not the Reserve Price.
The Auctioneer may open bidding on any Property by placing a bid on behalf of the Seller.
The Auctioneer may further bid on behalf of the Seller, up to the amount of the Reserve Price, by placing successive or consecutive bids for a Property, or by placing bids in response to other bidders.

In other words, the seller can bid up his own properties against your bid, until he reaches a "Reserve Price."

This sounds like a huge scam. It is not an auction. It is a marketing gimmick. This is a ridiculous and laughable event. More GF's in the running for becoming instant FB's. It should be against the law to call this an auction.

aggiealum said...

Isn't that called shill bidding? Anyway, how do we even know what the reserve price is? They can easily shill bid until the buyer bids an "agreeable" price and then the auctioneer will stop over bidding. I wonder if they will have an independent auditor there to ensure that the shill bidding isn't a scam. Seeing as how sellers are desperate, I doubt it.

Sippn said...

Well, come on, you don't need any professional real estate help, you can do it your self so I've heard.

Step up.

Its all disclosed.

You can read.

Just make sure the proper contengencies are included to get you out if necessary .... what are they?

Do some homework.

Earn that commission discount.

Sippn said...

Sittn - Let me apolgize only some.... really good catch on the shill bidding.

You can buy lots of stuff this way... cars, art, real estate.

Not for the faint of heart.

Sittin' Out This One said...


I don't object to the rules and am glad there is full disclosure (on line 186, buried in the fine print). I believe they should not call it an auction. It is not an auction. It is a Shill Auction. My objection is that they call it an auction.

I will wait for the real auctions. I don't care to bid against the sellers and their secret reserve prices. Gwynster said it best..."Sounds like a complete waste of time."

Prices will likely drop for the next few years. I have been writing offers and will continue to do so. My main criteria is to buy propety at 10-12 times rent, so it makes economic sense as an investment. We are getting there in reasonable stages and I am having moderate success with selected properties, but am still holding most of my cash in reserve for late 2008-2009. We have a long way to go and most downturns in housing take 5 years to reach a very protracted and wide bottom.

Diggin Deeper said...

This auction could be a most revealing event. Many homes from different zips, lots of hype, big venue, and sellers hoping to create the buzz that finally moves some inventory.

Hey, the banks are in trouble and they ought be able to recover as much as they can...most of the homes they've taken into inventory are losers to begin with...the only problem is that buyers are a helluva lot smarter today then two years ago...those that do get caught up in the moment may regret it a year from now.

Imho, if this one goes as most of the others have gone, only a fraction of those auctioned will prices that barely meet the reserves. The banks will be left searching for ways to get the burden off the books...finally realizing that they're stuck with overpriced merchanadise that will only move when deeply discounted.

As for the discounted commission structure, I'm wondering if there's a seller's premium as well.

Patient Renter said...

Those auction terms sound ridiculous. Aside from the "shill" bidding, the fact that there even is a reserve makes it not worth anyones time, knowing that the reserve is probably at or near what they wanted to sell the homes for anyways (pre-auction).

norcaljeff said...

It's a BS auction. The market still sucks, these guys will eventually sell below the min price, just like the other recent auctions in the area. Just sit tight. The best thing you can do for yourself is to stop visiting these homes and don't buy. Eventually your price will come. New home builders are still selling over $100K less than what the resales are going for, sit tight and be patient!

Gwynster said...

I'm outie. We're letting the DFE expire and sitting quietly for another couple years.

Cmyst mentioned doing hobbies to take my min off housing so I'm going to take her up on that suggestion. I need to find cheaper hobies though.

Patient Renter said...

"I'm outie. We're letting the DFE expire and sitting quietly for another couple years."

Good call, although even if you're not planning to actually buy anything, harrassing realtors with the pre-approved letter must be a nice hobby.