Tuesday, July 24, 2007

California Breaks 90s Foreclosure Record; Another High For Sacramento

From DQNews:

Trustees Deeds recorded, or the actual loss of a home to foreclosure, totaled 17,408 during the second quarter. That is the highest number in DataQuick’s statistics, which go back to 1988. That was up 57.8 percent from 11,032 for the previous quarter, and up 799.2 percent from 1,936 for last year’s second quarter. The prior peak of foreclosure sales was 15,418 in third-quarter 1996....
Roughly half, 54.6 percent, of the homeowners in default emerge from the foreclosure process by bringing their payments current, refinancing, or selling the home and paying off what they owe. A year ago it was 88.0 percent.
From Bloomberg:
The number of defaults resulting in foreclosures is the highest since DataQuick began keeping records. The previous high was in early 1994, when about 30 percent of defaults resulted in foreclosures, Karevoll said.
Homeowners received 53,943 default notices, more than double the 20,909 filed a year ago....Last quarter's default level was the highest since the fourth quarter of 1996, when 54,045 notices were recorded in California...The number of default notices sent to homeowners in California...has averaged 34,172 quarterly since DataQuick...began tracking the data in 1992.
From the LA Times:
When the increase in housing stock over the last decade is taken into account, foreclosures are running roughly equal with the 1996 peak.
"We're clearly in for a worse third quarter and an even worse fourth quarter," said John Karevoll, chief analyst at DataQuick Information Systems, which compiled the data.
Karevoll said the default numbers reflected a wide regional disparity. They were at record levels in Riverside, Contra Costa, Sacramento and most Central Valley counties, where many of the state's first-time buyers live.
From the Sacramento Bee:
Sacramento County, with 1,662 foreclosures and 3,840 notices of default, had the region's greatest share of foreclosure related activity.

"It's like that book, 'The Perfect Storm,'" said Sacramento real estate agent Carey Covey, a specialist in marketing homes repossessed by banks. "All the factors have come together to create this situation."
Sacramento County:
  • Notices of Default (NOD) Year-over-Year Change: +184%
  • Foreclosures Year-over-Year Change: +850%
Placer County:
  • NODs: +127%
  • Foreclosures: +659%
Yolo County:
  • NODs: +201%
  • Foreclosures: +10,200%
El Dorado County:
  • NODs: +158%
  • Foreclosures: +2,125%


Gwynster said...

Hey Lander,

Did you see the pieces on Bloomberg about Prime defaults and Alt A shaping up to be

U.S. Stocks Tumble on Concern Defaults May Spread; Apple Drops

Countrywide's Net Declines 33 Percent on Home Equity (Update7)

There are some nice money quotes in there

Diggin Deeper said...

"They were at record levels in Riverside, Contra Costa, Sacramento and most Central Valley counties, where many of the state's first-time buyers live."

I thought Sacto depended on the "move up" market. Appears someone disagrees.

Theu even gave our Perfect Storm a plug in one of the articles. How prophetic!

Looks like rough water ahead. Most of problem hits in '08 and lingers into '09. If we're just on the cusp of this, I hardly doubt that we've seen the top in inventories and won't see them this year. Imho,monthly NOD and foreclosures will exceed monthly sales figures probably sometime in the late 3rd or 4th quarter. This will be the low water mark and a serious threat to prices that just seem to stay up longer than they should.

Alt-A and prime foreclosures rising...How could they?!

Diggin Deeper said...

"Subprime hits auto sector as financing tightens"


This subprime s**t is everywhere. Now its screwing up the auto business.

Will anyone find any "real" money to lend or do we just continue to hand out exploding paper?

SacramentoCrash said...

I guess the blank is going to be hitting the fan big time in Sac Town

Cmyst said...

The percentages in Yolo county and EDH county are gut-sink amazing.

I heard several ads on the radio today for the first time. One for obtaining lists of foreclosed homes, and one for "fresh start" financing of autos are uppermost in my mind.

Gwynster said...

And the Davis Enterprise has this fluff piece in it about rising rental rates! LOL only thing rising in Davis is the vacancy %.

Gwynster said...

PS. I really want to see where those foreclosures are. They can't all be in West Sac.

I know Woodland and Winters are having a tough time but apparently it's worse then even this pessimist thinks.

anon1137 said...

I thought the story in the Bee about the homeowners who had lived in their house for 26 years and lost it to foreclosure was interesting. I'm curious to know the percent of foreclosures that result from owners who overextend themselves with HELOCs, cash-out refi's, etc., as opposed to an initial purchase with an ARM. Also, the percent of foreclosures going to owners of 2nd homes/investors as opposed owner-occupied homes.

And since I'm asking for all kinds of information, how about the average amount that the banks lose on each foreclosure. I suspect that they aren't losing that much yet, that the homes are being resold for close to the amount that is owed, since the regional median home price is holding up quite well.