Thursday, July 05, 2007

Sacramento Real Estate Market - June 2007

The Wall Street Journal confirms that Sacramento housing inventory has exceeded last year's high (see also BMIT). Supply of MLS inventory now stands at about 11 months according to the Sacramento Real Estate Statistics blog.

The Sacramento real estate market also tops a priced reduced list, beating out 17 other housing markets such as Phoenix and Boston (see the chart here). According to The Journal, 47.7% of Sacramento homes for sale have reduced their listing prices.

Meanwhile, Sacramento real estate prices are falling by double-digits year-over-year according to the Sacramento Real Estate Blog:

  • Sacramento County Median: -10.5% [-13.4% since peak]
  • Sacramento County $/SF: -10.3%

31 comments:

Sippn said...

Not that its any help, but housing tracker showed over 18K in August 2006 -- ??

smf said...

I know of several listings that were for sale, disappeared, and the records do not indicate any sale occurring.

And some of these I know are vacant.

Wonder what the real number is?

Slick50 said...

You're right... we haven't passed last years record for the number of homes on the market. What we have passed is how long it will take to move what is currently on the market (YOY).

Sales are down from last year so although there are fewer houses up for sale (right now anyway, Aug. is coming) the amount of time required to sell these homes is greater than last years high.

In short, it sucks to be a seller right now with no silver lining on the horizon for quite some time!

Perfect Storm said...

Realtytrac.com has 8,198 bank owned properties. That is an increase of 700 homes from last week. In the monthly sales report of homes how many are foreclosures. I know some are, but how many? Right now Sacramento sales are down 60% from peak, but if you include foreclosures then it is 80%.

At this rate they better have an auction everyday. Hey I got an idea they can create a foreclosure amusement park, you know with rides and cotton candy. Maybe if you knock down all the milk bottles you can win a starter prize a nice 2 bedroom/1 bath in South Sacramento. Oh that will solve the employment problem for realtors they can become carnival barkers.

Housing/Mortgage Doom 2007.

Were right on track for a 50% decline by 2009.

Gwynster said...

Housingtracker and BMIT use diferent data streams.

AgentBubble said...

smf--If you have addresses, I'll look the properties up and see what I can find.

Cmyst said...

Agentbubble --
Here are four.

5489 Wildflower Circle, 95608

5140 Locust Ave. 95608

5213 Overbrook Way 95841

7717 Up Ct. 95610

smf said...

Agent

The one I am more interested in is

11733 Old Eureka Road 95670

Any houses over 3000 sq. ft. around the area are also of interest.

Thanks

AgentBubble said...

5489 Wildflower Circle, 95608
->Sold 6/8/07 $481,000
->Sold 10/28/04 $399,000

5140 Locust Ave. 95608
->Withdrawn 6/15/07 $438,900
->Bank bought it on 1/11/07 $473,591
->Sold 9/6/05 $565,000

5213 Overbrook Way 95841
->Withdrawn 6/26/07 $339,000
->No recent activity

7717 Up Ct. 95610
->Pending 6/13/07 $360,000

AgentBubble said...

11733 Old Eureka Road 95670
->Sold 9/29/06 $690,000
->Withdrawn 5/30/07 $699,000
Tax records are either incorrect or sellers paid cash for home in 2006.

Did a search within .5 mile from that property and came up with 5 listings over 3,000 SF:

2059 Granite Bar Way Gold River, CA 95670-8334
11925 Rising Sun Way Gold River, CA 95670-8388
11929 Rising Sun Way Gold River, CA 95670-8388
11720 Melones Cir Gold River, CA 95670-7745
2069 Campton Cir Gold River, CA 95670-8301

If you want more info on any, just let me know.

smf said...

The 11733 property is very interesting.

The property was underpriced when it came to the market, so two couples bought it cash, by HELOCing their other properties.

At least one couple is involved in the RE industry.

The house is vacant.

It's a flip gone bad. They did not do a good job of updating it.

Been checking to see if it comes up in foreclosure.

This is a good example of inventory not showing everything.

There are other large homes there that seem to be getting in trouble.

There is another foreclosed property for sale at $595K that is not moving.

(Guess 'Real' took Gold River out of the desirable areas that won't go down?)

buying time said...

For my education....what's the scoop on Gold River. Its seems like a nice alternative to Folsom and EDH, and closer to the city. I get the feeling folks are either for it or against it. Yes its overpriced tract homes (but aren't all neighborhoods these days). Otherwise, the river is close and the schools look good...what am I missing?

Diggin Deeper said...

Damn, do you really mean that even the pricey and out of reach "neighborhood nirvanas"... those upscale amenities, school systems, surrounded by the golden moat, are starting to feel the pain?

The hot discussion of late was bifurcation...separating two distinct markets...one augering in and the other merrily moving on up. You can buy that bull if you want, but the malaise hits the area not the neighborhood. Those who believe they are immune to those poor folks in THAT neiborhood had better get clue.

Cheap money didn't prevent higher end, upscale buyers from using it. Hell, they were probably the worst abusers of the exploding loans, because they knew full well that money would never get so cheap again. They levered as little as they could and created multiple opportunities for speculation and investment. Problem was time ran out and now they hold a big bag of s**t with no one renting and no one buying. Its a big boy's bet that turned out bad. But they'll suck it up and regroup, there'll be another bull market out there to make up the difference.

Cmyst said...

Agentbubble-
Thanks for the info! RE:
5489 Wildflower Circle, 95608
->Sold 6/8/07 $481,000
->Sold 10/28/04 $399,000

What could be an explanation for a home that was on the market for 177 days and last asking price was $384,000, and was taken off MLS long before June, selling for nearly 100K over asking price in June???

smf said...

Buying time:

Gold River was created as a luxury community long time ago. The original construction looks good, and the prices were high as well. It has good schools.

Diggin:

Sooo true. People forget that some of us that want and CAN move to a higher end neighborhood have to sell our current home first.

We can easily afford a house that is priced at about $150K-$200K higher than what we sell our current home.

So if our current home value keeps dropping (about $100K so far), then the price that we can pay for our move up home will also have to come down for us to purchase it.

Patient Renter said...

"For my education....what's the scoop on Gold River."

Think in terms of school districts, in this case, Folsom-Cordova. I'm sure you can find lots of info on the web.

"what am I missing?"

Aside from the overpriced tract homes (which you mentioned) and [nazi] HOAs, it does look like a pretty nice place. Personally though, I have friends who've lived in Gold River in the past and had very bad experiences - at least one of which left my wife and I with no desire to ever live there (involving serious violence). It's hard to say if it was just bleedover from neighboring areas in Rancho Cordova or whatever, but Gold River is in a precarious location in terms of proximity to other areas I don't care to be near.

"but aren't all neighborhoods these days [overpriced tract homes]"

New ones, yea. Although, many new neighborhoods are better located, in my opinion.

AgentBubble said...

cmyst--

I screwed up!

5489 Wildflower Circle, 95608
->Sold 6/8/07 $381,000 (NOT $481K)
->Sold 10/28/04 $399,000

That's the second home I've seen at 2004 pricing.

Gwynster said...

Agent,

Are just counting Gold River in the 04' pricing because if not, I think I have a list for you including homes at mid 2004 prices that haven't sold.

AgentBubble said...

gwynster,

Yeah, just Gold River :-)

If we looked at Elk Grove for example, we wouldn't have enough room on this blog!

buying time said...

Thanks for the scoop on Gold River! The Rancho effect is certainly a concern of mine. I lived in Rancho for 3 months when I first moved here. I saw a lot of stuff I wouldn't want to expose my kids to. But I heard it has cleaned up a lot since I was gone. And some of the local vegetation has since been legalized for medicinal purposes.

smf said...

If you remember your RE history, and correct me if wrong, Gold River was the only place in Sac. that had large track homes.

But then other places started to build large track homes, which has been pretty unusual.

In some areas, the HOAs are killers, but others are pretty OK. You get the front lawn taken care of for about $100/month.

There are a few reasons we would go to GR. One is that our kids will have closer friends to any house there.

Another would be that it is easier access than having to go thru the Sunrise bridge.

But there seems to have been a lot of sales occurring there towards the end of the bubble, so I would not be certain what the future holds there.

Gwynster said...

Agent,

OK I caught a few in Davis and wondered.

smf said...

"Think in terms of school districts, in this case, Folsom-Cordova."

GR is San Juan SD, BTW. They are not a part of Rancho Cordova at all.

Patient Renter said...

"GR is San Juan SD, BTW."

My mistake. To make up for it, here's the great schools info on Gold River:

http://www.greatschools.net/city/Gold_River/CA

Note the violent crime index as compared to other towns/cities that were mentioned.

"The four types of offenses included in the crime index calculation are murder and non-negligent manslaughter, forcible rape, robbery and aggravated assault, all of which involve force or threat of force. Sperling's BestPlaces crime indices are based on data provided by the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI)."

Mike said...

Regarding Gold River..

My parents have lived here almost 20 years and I am looking to buy here as well eventually. What I like about Gold River: 1) Tidy looking appearances 2) Lots of big trees, 3) Good schools (not part of rancho schools) 4) walking paths/bike trails/near American river 5)Past the sunrise bridge 6) General upscaleness of the neighborhood

I am not sure what the deal home prices with Gold River is but it is not budging much while other areas seem to be cratering. I almost purchased a home in GR after I sold my house in Natomas in late 2004. Unfortunately, it looks like current prices in GR are higher than when I looked at that time.

smf said...

"Note the violent crime index as compared to other towns/cities that were mentioned."

Interesting...

"I am not sure what the deal home prices with Gold River is but it is not budging much while other areas seem to be cratering."

From a cursory study of prices, GR appears to be an area where the bubble arrived late.

Actual desirable areas were not subject to the same level of speculation at the beginning as many less desirable and 'up and coming' areas. After all, there are areas where people really want to live in.

But the bubble finally got there, and you can see by the later price increases.

There was a surge of homes purchased in GR towards the end of the bubble. And there are the first signs of trouble brewing in the area.

Use foreclosure.com to check the progress of the downfall.

AgentBubble said...

I'm curious, can anyone actually define the Gold River area for me? I'd like to run stats for it, but I don't know the street boundaries that make up that area.

Cmyst said...

I think Gold River is roughly bordered by Hwy 50 on the south, Sunrise on the west, Hazel on the east and the river to the north.

Gwynster said...

Apparently Gold River is inexpensive to rent in however
http://sacramento.craigslist.org/apa/368122892.html
------
$1600 / 3br - 2193 Roaring CAmp Drive Gold River 3/2
This is a spacious 3 bdrm 2 ba 2 car garage. Built in oven stove and microwave. Living room, family room, dining room and formal dining room. The rent is 1600 and the deposit is 1500.
2193 Roaring Camp Dr at Gold Country

Quick better flag the listing before those dreaded renters invade prime gold river >; )

Patient Renter said...

"I'm curious, can anyone actually define the Gold River area for me?"

Cymst has it. Here's a map. Basically everything along and off of Gold Country Blvd.

http://maps.google.com/maps?f=q&hl=en&geocode=&q=gold+river,+ca&ie=UTF8&om=1&ll=38.626527,-121.247091&spn=0.030979,0.05785&z=14&layer=t

Mike said...

Here is a little write up about Gold River from Wiki. It also has link to google maps showing location of Gold River.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gold_River,_California