Friday, August 03, 2007

Two Years of Change

From Rocklin and Roseville Today

Early on we had a number of people, who came to be known as “bubblers,” who
were using words like, “crash” and “doomsday.” Right now, I don’t recall anyone being very close to predicting where we are today. The local real estate market has not crashed, not all homeowners wish they were renters; some of us who are working in the industry still have jobs and are making a living doing something we enjoy. At the same time it is also clear that all the changes of the past two years have taken their toll on companies and individuals. Many jobs in the industry are gone, there are more homeowners facing foreclosure than we know about and some dreams based on growing equity have been shattered.


Patient Renter said...

"Right now, I don’t recall anyone being very close to predicting where we are today."


We (generally) predicted it would crash, but would take several years to play out as does every RE cycle. "where we are today" is not yet a few years out from the peak, so what do you expect?

David said...

"If you are buying or own property because you want to live there and enjoy the home and intend to do that for 5 to 7 years it will be a good investment."

This is also wrong, at least as far as the BUYING part goes. It is NOT a good investment in the large majority of cases to purchase a home in this market. It is quite clear that non-homeowners should rent and invest any differential between rent and the would-be mortgage (and it's almost certainly a significant sum) in a way that will provide positive returns, not negative as with real estate currently.

Giacomo said...

(Reading the whole article)
It's the same tired Realtor® recipe: a few "misstatements," a few cherry-picked stats, some quibbling over semantics, a dash of self-pity,and bunch of finger-pointing (the bankers/brokers/investors/flippers did it), and a healthy dose of Panglossian optimism.

Who has scored better in predicting recent trends, the "bubblers," or the National Association of Realtors? Please. The bubble-bloggers are, at minimum, independent thinkers trying to grasp economic realities; the REI, on the other hand, can be counted on to embrace nearly any fiction that will serve their agenda.

Gwynster said...

Yep, same old trash. I knew y'all would have fun tearing it apart.

RMB said...

Posted this on their site, wonder if it will stay up?

Oh, wait for it, wait for it. This game has only reached the 3rd inning Julie. Most predictions are for the end of the game not what happens in the middle. So take the trends in line and look who has come closer to the mark, The CAR/NAR gang or those with some grasp of reality...

Julie is delusional and is tied in with that other paragon of market analysis John Lockwood. I guess if you need an opinion anyone will do, sometimes it does help to go to someone that has a grasp of economics though.

Don Knots said...


Consider posting your comments on her blog also (linked to in this blog). It is so much easier to tell there are comments on her blog... she seems to actually respond there too.

Another "always the optimist dilutional realtor" can be found on the "Real Estate News" blog (also linked to in this site)... Ken Calhoon's Blog. There are some real good gems there from time to time. You have to watch him though, he'll actually pull articles, then put new ones up in the middle of his blog. He had one real winner where a client wanted out of a house in Rancho she was loosing money on (a renter left so she was loosing even more a month and wanted out). Ken "advised" her to wait five years then sell. He calculated that although she was upside down now, in five years she would be fine... and actually make a profit. (a few days later I noticed the post had been removed so maybe people were giving him flack. He never allows comments to appear in his blog, but it's fun writing them anyway so he'll have to at least read about how silly his spin sounds to people who are watching this market!) To bad the crystal ball is broken Ken!

Rob Dawg said...

You took my fun away. I was preparing a lengthy riposte and you put this up with all the good observations. Truth told she seems nice enough, she's not an a¢¢hat like a certain elitist agent I could mention. Her emails have been polite and receptive. She's just wrong and that's not worth getting too worked up about.

If you bought 7 years ago it has been an awesome ride. Even if you bought 3 years ago your TCO vs renting is darned good so far. 3 years from now in 2010 the word will be that anyone who bought after 2001 is so far behind that they will never break even compared to renting and then the comparison will start to reverse once again.

jaye said...

The big securities firm also plans to oust Warren Spector, Bear's powerful chief of stock and bond trading and one of the firm's two presidents, according to a person familiar with the matter. Mr. Spector, 49 years old, had been widely viewed as a leading candidate to become the firm's next chief executive. Bear's board is set to meet Monday to discuss Mr. Spector's departure, the person said.


"Every financial institution, Bear Stearns included, is facing an extremely challenging market environment. I've been involved in the securities industry for more than four decades and I have seen a broad spectrum of market dislocations. In the stock market crash in the late '80s, fixed income troubles in the mid '90s, and the bursting of the Internet bubble in 2001, this is not the first time and certainly will not be the last time that Wall Street and the financial community will work through difficult conditions." -- Jimmy Cayne, Chairman and CEO

The above quote came from the WSJ. Mr. Cayne throughout his career made all the right moves until one day TSHTF. I've read many articles about the Depression and the same messages then are echoing out today. Whenever you see a great concentration of wealth being accumulated by the masses, history has shown that financial ruin is just around the corner.

Thousands in the real estate industry will lose their jobs, homes, and lifestyle. No need to finger point at anyone, you get in line and you take your chances.

SacramentoCrash said...

Just remember media price has as much to do with reality as WMD's have to do with the war in Iraq.

Median is used by the lazy "economists" that don't know how to peg values of properties in the various market segments.

You have to look at specific properties to determine where values are and where they have been.

Median schmedian.

Prices are dropping alot faster than people realize.

Risa said...

She's feelin the pain these days...I've emailed her previously on inane articles she's written - never heard back though...

norcaljeff said...

Housing is a good investment only if you can find a sucker to pay more for the same, older home you bought previously from the other sucker. If not, you're stuck with a depreciating asset just like the pile of depreciating crap in your driveway.