Saturday, September 22, 2007

Sacramento Real Estate Market - September 2007 Water Cooler

Post off-topic links, observations, and stories about the Sacramento real estate market here. Please read the comment policy before posting.

52 comments:

Cmyst said...

Did a repeat drive-by on some Strengs in Elk Grove yesterday, because I was in the South area due to weekend work scheduling. (PR, I gave you some areas on the Average Buyer blog if you want to look at and compare a lot of Strengs.)
The neighborhoods actually looked better to me this time around. Still not 400K level, but quiet and clean. Some weekend foot traffic and older kids out walking, people cleaning their cars and hanging out in their garages, etc. It gave me a chance to check on three or four that had gone off MLS; one is for sale by owner, can't tell with two, and the one that was a flipper house is still vacant but no signs or notices -- yet.
One of the homes (very modern design, not a Streng) that went off MLS a few weeks ago is back on again, at the exact same asking price to the dollar. It's empty, and the FB that is trying to sell it is not going to drop the price because they bought in '05 for 20K more than what they're listing it for. Still, it brightened my day to add it back into my list.

Sittin' Out This One said...

I watched the cops pull a squatter out of a 3500 SF JTS home yesterday. He claimed to be a record producer from LA, but had no furniture in the house. He did have a no bail warrant for skipping on a $150,000 bail bond in So Cal.

This morning, another vacant FB's home has grafitti sprayed all over the front. Sold 6 months ago using 100% financing from Nova Star Funding (ceased wholesale lending on 8/17/07)).

Bubble areas are getting very interesting.

Gwynster said...

I saw that on Ben's blog and was hoping you'd post that here.

I have to ask, what development?

Patient Renter said...

Cymst, I just saw the post. Thanks for the info! I'm probably going to drive over and check out some over those areas next week.

Lander: Sorry for my off topic crap. I'll try to keep it in the water cooler for now on.

Sittin' Out This One said...

Lincoln Crossing.

Cmyst said...

You're kidding, graffiti in LINCOLN?!
Wowsers, and people move all the way out to the boonies so they can get away from that kind of stuff, lol.

Gwynster said...

Lincoln - wow

Chuck Ponzi said...

You can take the man out of the ghetto, but you cant...

Oh never mind.

norcaljeff said...

First the housing bailout, now the iPhone bailout. Anyone else hear this? I guess all those angry customers who were stupid enough to stand in line and overpay for their precious iPhones whined and complained enough that Steve Jobs will now give them a $100 credit. All this does is encourage people to continue to make dumb financial decisions and then show them that whining like little babies will get them what they want. I'm sure there's a quote out there somewhere by Sippin that the iPhone was a steal at $599. Absolutely unreal.

capitalME said...

If anyone's interested in contributing content to NoBailout.org please contact me. Almost ready to launch the site. http://www.nobailout.org/ Thanks.

anon1137 said...

This was the gem in Wasserman's piece in the Bee today:

The MBA, a lender trade group in Washington, D.C., says 21 percent of prime loans that are in default in California belong to people who bought homes without living in them. And 15 percent of subprime loans -- higher-cost loans for people with blemished credit histories -- now in default belong to the speculators.

So more than a third of owners not making their payments in CA are investors.

Sippn, I hope one of those is not you.

HOUSE2008 said...

All the above is encouraging news! I also heard that between Banks they have some 500 Billion of "investments" that have to go through the pipeline. An "expert" basically said that between the Credit crunch & foreclosure that "there's (I laughed to tears) constipation with in the financial markets trying to move 500 billion." Also it's twice as hard when banks don't trust the others securities...Man I hope I'm NEVER that constipated...

a_builder said...

Sac layoffs resume en masse!

Teichert -1,500!!
Toll Bros. several supers, total const stop in Folsom/EDH
Fischer Tile most guys stayin home

Beutler HVAC: Another mass layoff imminent

flora said...

I laugh every day! Why, because of the smug Realtors who tried to act like there was something inherently good about being evil. I am saving and saving and watching and watching, as Realtors start working from Post office boxes and living in their Cadillacs. They still believe their own lies. A dump that costs $30,000 40 years ago is listing for $600,000 today. Ah the joy, when you are hungry -- go eat some of your house. And spit out the termites while you are at it. If I see another Realtor selling burgers who doesn't say "Do you want fries with that?" I'll have him fired. NYa Nya Nya Nya Nyaaa LOL LOL

norcaljeff said...

Was up at Squaw Valley this weekend. Tons of for sales signs in the windows of those way over priced condos they built at the bottom of SV. Wonder how long it will take for this place to take. Surprised it hasn't happened yet. They're asking almost $500K for a 500 sqft condo.

Gwynster said...

Lander, can we get the ad above nixxed?

Ad boy - peddle elsewhere.

mopar777 said...

Hey Gwynster - just curious about something. You said once that you read an incredible amount every day, just as I do. Do you find movies and television shows getting more and more rediculous, annoying and predictable ever since you became an avid reader?

Gwynster said...

Well since my reading binge began at 4, it's hard to say.

The fact that I used to work in the film industry way before I moved up here has more to do with how I view what's coming out these days.

Diggin Deeper said...

Got this little exerpt via email today. Credit goes to Agora Finacial's 5 Minute Forecast...

"Back here in the States, apparently, a married duo of mortgage brokers fell on hard times “and so opened a brothel,” reports Whisky & Gunpowder’s Greg Grillot. If there was ever a “beat” for Greg to cover, this is it:

Police in New Rochelle, N.Y., arrested Richard Werner and Heather Mezzenga, both mortgage brokers, after the two decided to turn a home they couldn’t sell into an illegal prostitution house. According to neighbors, the couple lowered the price of the home from $750,000 to $600,000… and then, all of a sudden, the house went off the market, windows were covered in heavy shades and at least five cars started parking outside the house every night."

When all else fails...turn to the oldest profession known to man...

Gwynster said...

Good find Diggin

Cmyst said...

My GPS routed me through the really high-end gated part of Serrano today. I realized what had happened when the street it was urging me to turn on had a security code box, but the gate was open, so I kept going.
It was shocking the number of lots and really luxurious homes that are for sale up there. It's unbelievable. I mean, really, it boggles the mind that contractors would build so many of these homes on spec, which they MUST have done for there to be so many brand new empty and for sale mansions up there!
Who in the name of the Almighty did they think was going to buy those?

SacramentoCrash said...

Did you read about what is going on in Bakersfield - Armpit of the state?

David Crisp and Cole are being investigated by the feds.

When will this fed action hit SacTown?

Gwynster said...

I saw the post about the FBI raiding the crisp and Cole holdings earlier this morning.

back at the home front, so much for continuing skyrocketing of rents. This place has been reduced $300 a month already.
http://sacramento.craigslist.org/apa/420644536.html

Rents can go down, even in fabulous e. Sac.

Gwynster said...

Hey! I want someone to build me a house in davis for free too

http://sacramento.craigslist.org/wan/418474002.html

mopar777 said...

the stagecoach driver in 1910
the blacksmith in 1920
the silent film star in 1928
the telegraph operator in 1940
the radio show host in 1957
the bigot comedian in 1965
the gas station attendant in 1977
the anglo restaurant kitchen staff in 1982
the typewriter repairman in 1985
the anglo construction worker in 1995
the travel agent in 2000
the 6% real estate agent in 2007?

Gwynster said...

That's a great list Mopar.

Remember our discussion about what makes a good renter? Cmyst has a great write up on being the virtuous tentant to a flaky LL.

anon1137 said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
anon1137 said...

I was just looking at the Dataquick August sales and price data, as posted on Sacbee.com (BTW, East Sac is still bouncing around within a few % of peak prices). I threw the numbers into a spreadsheet and sorted it by % yoy change in median price and was surprised by a few of the zips that sorted to the bottom.

South Sac and any area with new development is no surprise, but how about these:

Fair Oaks (95628), -27%; EDH (95762), -16%; Rocklin (95765),
-14%; Rocklin (95677), -13%.

buying time said...

anon1137
I was doing my happy dance when I saw those numbers come out. Hubby is just chomping at the bit to buy a home...I'm not sure I can hold him off much longer. I sure hope so, cause it looks like the party has just kicked into high gear.

anon1137 said...

BT, I think you're smart to hold off if you can. Even considering these recent declines, prices are so out of touch with reality, it's just ridiculous.

If there's a recession next year, it will feel better to be renting (and therefore more mobile) and have some cash in the bank than to be chained to a mountain of debt and an asset that's losing value every month.

Sacto EJ said...

You guys will LOVE this! Some genius has come up with a "plan" to make sure that buyers won't default on their mortgage if the price of the home goes down:

http://tinyurl.com/24cgj9

You know he's a nut job from the proposal, but it is confirmed when he begins to attempt to use "real" numbers...

"A. Suppose the average price of a three bedroom home is 700,000 and that there is a mortgage with payments due each month of $2,000..."

Yeah, right - idiot.

-EJ

Cmyst said...

ej, that was the stupidest "solution" I have read yet.

The past week or so has been rough on my future housing plans. For one thing, I've had to face some hard facts about my remaining productive work years and how much I can reasonably expect to spend on a mortgage if I have the goal of paying off the mortgage before I retire. And basically, especially if interest rates go up significantly at some point, it isn't near what I would be happy to buy at were I 20 years younger. When these are factored in, unless houses drop to their '01 values and in a couple cases their '98 values, I may as well forget buying.

Gwynster said...

Cmyst,

Are you hoping to stay in CA? That could make a big difference.

I've had the same dicussions with my husband. For us, as long as we buy in the next 6 years, we're ok. After that, we'll just rent and save and move out of CA to retire.

HOUSE2008 said...

A-Ha! It happened! YES! Have faith cmyst. Check out Mls 70059274. But this was WAY past my prediction. I thought $130sqf was nice but this...is a start. Went & looked at the area & they are still building new homes dwon one direction while others in that area are selling for 475K! Amazing, that someone beat me to it.

Cmyst said...

Gwyn, I was hoping to stay in Cali, since that is where my kids are and only one is planning on moving out of state. The rest all in-laws, friends, etc. that they don't want to move away from. Worse case scenario: I rent, save, and buy in a lower cost of living state when I retire.

house2008: price per sf on the bigger houses is coming down, but on some of the smaller ones it's still stubbornly high. It's encouraging, though!

What do you all think of this?
All of the houses I'm interested in were "valued" at from 140K - 200K (except one, which was at 300K, for no reason that I can figure out given the neighborhood and style)in 2001, and from 190K to 250K (except that one, which at least held at 300K)in 2004. Is it within the realms of sanity for me to hope that these houses will return to a price between the 2001 and 2004 values in the next couple of years?

I think it's reasonable, but of course that's because I want them to be affordable for me. Most of them have minimal improvements and I don't consider things like a new roof to be something I'd pay extra for on a 40 year old house; is that being unreasonable?

If these exact houses aren't around, I figure they give me a wide spectrum of locales and models within the Streng homes that I really want, and that other houses similar will likely hit the market if these are sold or are taken off.

Am I thinking logically?

Sacto EJ said...

Yesterday, all my troubles seemed so far away.
Now it looks as though they're here to stay.
I bought too much and now must pay.

Suddenly, I've got half the cash I used to see,
There's a reset hanging over me.
Oh, yesterday came suddenly.

Why they lied to me I don't know, they hide away.
I signed something wrong now I long for yesterday.

Yesterday, owning was an easy game to play.
Now I need a place to hide away.
Oh, I believe in yesterday.

buying time said...

Nicely done EJ....does it come with a soundtrack too?

anon1137 said...

Interesting column in the NYTimes, describes the current situation in the Sac housing market:

A Reality Check for Home Sellers
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/09/23/business/yourmoney/23view.html?ref=business

From 1989 to 1992, prices in Boston fell sharply, with condominium prices dropping as much as 40 percent. For a great many of those who bought condominiums during that period, selling could be done only at a significant loss. And, basically, many people refused to sell.

Their study, “Loss Aversion and Seller Behavior: Evidence From the Housing Market,” appeared in The Quarterly Journal of Economics in November 2001. The professors gathered data on almost 6,000 Boston condominium listings from 1991 to 1997 and showed that for essentially identical condominiums, people who had bought at the peak and were facing a loss generally listed their properties for significantly more than those who had bought at a time when prices were lower.

Properties listed above the market price just sat there. In the Boston market over all, sellers listed their properties for an average of 35 percent above the expected sale price, and less than 30 percent of the properties sold in fewer than 180 days. In other words, much of the market went into a deep freeze as many people held out for market prices that no one would reasonably pay.

HOUSE2008 said...

cmyst..I can definately relate to wanting a smaller home. Yes having 3000+ sqft is nice. But at $115sqft is unbelieveable! Mindblowing when their were NEW homes still being built like 7 homes down @ 475k.I mean my dad was building homes back in 88-90 within that ballpark figure!NowI'm just waiting for that $115sqft to also reach the "smaller" 2200-2600 sqft homes.

Anybody want to bet that Fannie may & Co. will come to the rescue by lifting the mortgage limit to say 600K from the 417 it's at now? Correct me if I'm wrong but, by doing that isn't this a back door way of "bailing out" the housing industry?

Perfect Storm said...

Anybody want to bet that Fannie may & Co. will come to the rescue by lifting the mortgage limit to say 600K from the 417 it's at now?

Why would Bush sign it seems to me only the blue states need the help with the exception of Florida, and I bet only the blue part of that state needs the help. Please do not try to guess my political affliation, I have none.

mopar777 said...

Gynster, Cymst and any other "entry level" buyers: why not consider buying a 3/2 - 2/2 duplex in a good part of town on a street with a good mix of duplexes and SFHs? Rent out the other side, build equity and upgrade in about 5 years. Wait a couple years to buy of course.

Gwynster said...

Mopar,

The duplexes in my neighborhood start at 550k. That doesn't even begin to make sense. That would allow me to carry twice the cost of rent on 2 units. LOL where do I sign up?

I'm looking for a 1200 to 1600 sqft SFR in a non-crappy part of Woodland or Davis, period. Or I keep saving and hopefully move.

Cmyst said...

Mopar-

I lived in a condo that I owned for 3 years, and I've also been a landlord.
I don't care to repeat either experience, suffice to say, especially not at the same time.

Patient Renter said...

On Sunday, the NYT posted an updated image of the infamous Shiller graph, which shows the progress (downward) that we've made from the 2005 peak through this June.

http://graphics8.nytimes.com/images/2007/09/23/weekinreview/0923BAJAJ.782.1000.jpg

It speaks for itself.

waiting_for_the_fall said...

Can someone explain why a realtor would not list a property on the MLS? Here's three that aren't listed. Seems like you would want more people viewing it instead of hoping that the realtor finds someone.
http://marinellirealestate.net/

Cmyst said...

There's a Streng home in Elk Grove that is being sold by an agent (or at least the sign indicates it is) but is not on MLS. Yeah, it's weird. The only reason I know about it is because it's right across the street from an MLS Streng that I track, and occasionally when my work places me in these neighborhoods I drive over and see if there's anything new going on. You know, notices on doors, dead lawns, broken windows -- that kind of thing.
Gwynster and AgentBubble sure have been quiet lately.....

Gwynster said...

A bright spot in my day!

MLS #: 70102211

Finally a listing with the words Bank Owned in Davis instead of the evasive As Is line.

Flipper Genocide said...

It's so refreshing to read these comments, you guys know what's really going on!! I'm tired of the NAR and Sacbee propoganda. It's a total trainwreck out there. I'm in the commercial real estate business. All of the bozos in my office who thought the market was on a permanent linear run north are updating their resumes and trying to sell their beemers. monster.com is the most frequently visited site on our floor, 3 years ago wild horses couldnt drag a guy outta there. Those same guys have thick mortgage payments and wives that make 3 starbucks runs a day in their suvs. the blood is in the water. the good times will be back in 2017. recession? umm, yes.

Gwynster said...

Cmyst,

I've been bad, playing online computer games. Spanking Sippin is only so entertaining for so long >; )

Gwynster said...

Patient,

I can't get to that Schiller graph. Any chance of Tiny URL?

Patient Renter said...

Gwyn: Here ya go:

http://tinyurl.com/2kc72m

Also check out the CR post from a few days ago where CR commented on the NYT graph, and came up with his own revised graph:

http://tinyurl.com/2foccx

BTW: Looking for more blog posts from you! I want some more stories about your REALTOR(tm) run-ins.

norcaljeff said...

Lander:

I've got a graphic we need to start tracking. Hows about the median home price when Sippin first made his bullish RE comment when the bubble popped and then track it all the way down to today. And we'll see when he finally cries Uncle and we'll see where that got people. I hope to God no one's listen to his "advice."