Tuesday, October 16, 2007

Up, Up, and Away: Sacramento County Hits 15 Months of Inventory

Erin Attardi, a real estate agent and blogger, reports that the supply of existing homes for sale hit 15 months in September. Based on TrendGraphix data, she graphed the supply figures back to 2002.

49 comments:

Nathan said...

Driving around neighborhood in Elk Grove and South Sacramento, I still see signs of new housing construction. Some location even breaks ground as of right now.

How so with regards to glooming condition of real estate market.

Could someone explains to me.

Diggin Deeper said...

"For example, in 95818 (Land Park / Curtis Park), there is 4.4 months of inventory. On the other side of the coin, in 95832 (Meadowview), there is 67.5 months of inventory."

And in between there are a whole lot of homes with "Brown Lawn" syndrome. The question is....are foreclosures even counted in the TrendGraphix data?

Jacob said...

If builder stop building they will be out of business. So you will always have homes being built somewhere, tho at a slower rate than before.

anon1137 said...

It wouldn't surprise me if inventory started to level off more in the next year or so as more homeowners realize that they can't sell for what they owe and they take their homes off the market. Pretty soon, most sales will be REOs.

Can't wait to see the DQ numbers for Sept, out tomorrow. The numbers for LA were bleak - sales down 49% and prices down 4% yoy.

And this week we have the money center banks shuffling their bad debts around and giving them fancy new names so they can avoid selling them and realizing their true value.

Meanwhile, in East Sac, we have 1409 35th St., 2031 ft2 for $998,500 or $492/ft2 (zestimate = $577K) . . . . party on!

smf said...

"Could someone explains to me."

"If builder stop building they will be out of business."

That is part of the answer. The other is that the planning phase for a project may reach years before they even get to the construction phase.

I went to a meeting not long ago where the planning and approval process started in 2000.

So you can have an owner that has millions invested in a project before it is even on the ground.

And the only hope of payback is by building and selling.

Diggin Deeper said...

The few buyers that are looking at homes are a whole lot smarter than when manic times were upon us.

Cmyst hit home when she simply said that buyers don't HAVE to buy. On the other hand many sellers HAVE to sell or lose the property altogether. Same for the builder...although I suppose he could cheapen up the home to meet the value demands of the buyers.

It's no wonder we're sitting on a 15 month inventory. Sellers, builders, and banks continue to sorely misjudge the severity of the problem. The bank could have easily taken their lumps and gotten out from under 20 properties in west Sac but "the bank didn't think the auction environment correctly tested the value of the homes." Yup, the bank is smarter than those prospective homeowners who bid exactly what they'd pay for those homes last weekend.

Someone once said, "Hydrogen is the most abundant element on Earth. Second is stupidity"

At the rate we're going, with wave II of foreclosures coming, and a very weak winter selling season, there's no telling how high those inventory numbers could go... or how low prices could fall in response to the oversupply problem.

Sac_Sol said...

"wave II of foreclosures coming"

Can someone explain to me why foreclosures would come in waves? It seems strange that people would stop making their payments in waves, as it is kind of an individual thing, isn't it?

Jacob said...

There were a lot of ARM resets this year which equaled to a lot of forclosures since you cant refinance if you owe more than the amount of your loan.

Next year there are even more ARM resets coming so there will be another set of forclosures as more and more people are unable to pay their mortgage or sell or refinance.

norcaljeff said...

One word...RENT

Tyrone said...

This cannot be!! John Lockwood made fun of Sacramento Land(ing) a while back. He's not wrong is he??

BWAHAHAHA

Yes, Sacramento is TOAST!

HappyinSF said...

Really? I've noticed the snarkiness has pretty much disappeared from John Lockwood's blog. Oh man, 2 years ago he used to be so nasty regarding bubble blogs. Must suck eating that much crow.

Less than a year ago I saw one of his employees was replying to a comment on his blog, she was stating they could factor a "conservative" 4% percent yearly appreciation on their home if they buy now. When I called Bull$@# John Lockwood was furious but stated his employee does not run numbers for his customers (Uh, she kinda just was.)
Now all that vigor is gone from his blog, now it's just appears to be listings and mostly negative real estate figures..

HappyinSF said...

Oh, I'd like to add she was saying conservative 4% over the next couple years.. not like over 20 years..just to be clear.

Cmyst said...

sac_sol:

On the front page here, down on the right margin (waaaaay down) under "Housing Bubble 101" there are a couple ARM reset charts that show you how the foreclosures can hit in waves.

erin@erinattardi.com said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
erin@erinattardi.com said...

Thanks for citing my post on your blog. I would like to point out for everyone that a "normal" market with buyer/seller equilibrium has roughly 6 months of inventory, and obviously 15 months of inventory currently is pretty heavily lopsided towards a "buyers market."

I would also like to point out that real estate is cyclical. What Sacramento and many other parts of the nation are experiencing right now are very similar to other periods of time in the early 90's, early 80's and so on. Yes foreclosures and short sales were very abundant then too; even more so than today. The main differece now, you may ask? INTEREST RATES REMAIN LOW. Historically, rates other periods of market normalization have been in the double digits. Borrowing money is still cheap...

My message remains pretty consistent.

Sellers, put a sign on your lawn if you need to sell. This is not the time to test the market. Price realistically and/or under market "value." Expect to take less than your asking price.

Buyers, there are some motivated sellers out there right now. Money is cheap, and there is still some really advantageous financing still available. Not all neighborhoods are "suffering" in the same way. Zillow is grossly inaccurate in most cases (both too high and too low). Short sales and foreclosures do not always represent the best value.

Good luck to you all.

Erin Attardi
http://www.SacREBlog.com

Diggin Deeper said...

erin...

Yes, financing is inexpensive and there are "deals" to be had right now. But why stand in front of a market that shows NO signs that prices and inventories will bottom and stabilize in the near term?

It gets worse each month as prices continue to fall in response to the increasing oversupply. Within 10 months, unless there's some huge government bailout provided, we will see upwards of $700 Billion in mortgage resets for the least of the creditworthy owning homes today. Never in history has there been such a glut of cheap money loaned to a glut of incapable borrowers. With respect to the outcome, you do the math.

Now what intelligent person, the same person that moves every 5-7 years on average, would take a chance on buying today? They realize this important decision is one that might limit their mobility, zero out the value of their down, and generally hold them captive to their cheap money mortgage for a long time.

If average Sacramento prices fall 25% from the peak, it takes a 33% appreciation to get even. At 40% it takes over 65% appreciation to recover. At 50%, like some are predicting, it would take 100% appreciation to get even.

All in all it's probably a good idea to wait out this market.

Sippn said...

Can almost leave you all alone and the answers come. . .


Nathan - because all things change and the region is still growing. Big projects take 15-20 years from dirt to homes.

Diggin - I wish I were a builder or seller in Curtus Park - wait - a builder will be building a bunch of homes there soon. Meadowview? Ew (as my daughter would say)

anon - a broker friend of mine in those zips is having the best year ever.

Inventory is not spread evenly, I noticed some desirable areas with recovering sales rates over the past 2 weeks since the August credit freeze.

WAVE OF FORECLOSURES - the wave predictions keep moving out - check out both charts, they dissagree by at least 60 days, at one time the prediction was 10/2006 - it keeps revising due to refis, sales, rate changes and general lack of knowledge. A peak of resets would take 6-8 months to translate into REOs.

Summary -

If you like Meadowview - there will be even more inventory to choose from, maybe cheaper. When it hits bottom, I won't be standing in line unless I'm an investor.

If you like Curtus Park, the great homes might last on the market a week instead of a day.

There are at least a dozen zips in our market with less than 6 months inventory. You'all can have the rest.

erin@erinattardi.com said...

Hi Diggin,

Thanks for your reply. You obviously do a lot of research, and yes in certain neighborhoods in Sacramento County - you are correct in that may not make sense for buyers to buy. Read my blog, and you will see that is a recurring theme. There are also many neighborhoods in Sacramento County that are doing quite well, and it does make sense to buy...not every neighborhood in Sacramento is overrun with foreclosed property and dead grass.

Keep in mind that every buyer's circumstance is different. Try standing in other people's shoes for a minute. ;-) While many buyers look at a property purchase as purely an investment, most buyers are looking for a home. A place to raise their kids, plant a garden, decorate, etc.

This "emotional" piece may be a foreign concept to many readers of this blog, and that's ok. I am sure many will argue this point with me, and that's ok too. I am not saying that emotion should over-rule sound spending and common sense. I am NOT saying that buyers shouldn't do lots of research and make good decisions. They definitely should! Buying a new track home in Lincoln may not be wise right now, however a case can be made that buying in Land Park is a good decision...Each circumstance should be evaluated carefully with regard to many factors that I could go on and on about. I have represented buyers where we have offered more than 15% below the asking price...on the other side of the coin, I have represented buyers where we have offered more than the asking price (yes recently) because there have been other offers on the table from other parties.

Like it or not, people have to buy and sell for reasons other than financial doom and impending foreclosure. Death, birth, divorce, relocation, and many other circumstances lead to real estate transactions. Unfortunately the mass media gloom fails to report that there are something like 97.4% of homeowners making their payments on time. I'm quoting a NAR stat that I do not have time to look up the link this morning...I can find it and post it later for any naysayers. These cycles happen in real estate. The world is not coming to an end as we know it, and to quote another reader of this blog, Sacramento is not "toast." ;-)

Off to work! Have a good day.

Mike_Roseville said...

Question for Erin:

If I came to you and said I was a renter looking for a home and would be happy in Folsom, Elk Grove, EDH, or Roseville, and that I didn't mind renting another year and there was no driving force causing me to purchase right now, would you recommend that I buy now or wait a year?

Diggin Deeper said...

Sippn

"WAVE OF FORECLOSURES"

You mean we have to wait an addititional 60 days plus 6-8 months longer to see this market find a bottom? Gee, that means we're into '09 before this mess begins to settle down? I'll bet those "refis, sales, rate changes and general lack of knowledge" were a bit easier to deal with during the first reset period. Those homeowners at least had a chance for refinancing as prices hadn't moved in the direction they're moving today. "Lack of knowledge" or even complete knowledge is pointless when there's no equity to play with. As for "sales", hmmmm, where have they gone since that time. Rate changes? If I'm not mistaken, they've bumped up a little bit haven't they? Helicopter Ben has done nothing that helps Main St. mortgage holders.

We all know that Sac's growing, adding skilled high paying jobs, and attracting balanced and vibrant industries to support that "growth." Jobs are everywhere to be had. And then there's our economy which is growing and unaffected by cheap money excesses we continue to see.

I'll give your zips today, but will check back in with you in about 6-8 months to see if there's been any change...

Sippn said...

Diggin - I'm pretty sure that builders have cut back their starts here by a larger number than the coming foreclosures - so will inventory be larger or smaller - I don't know.

Sac real stats and others often only show us the Realtor listed side, missing new and missing most of the REO. - They're innerrelated, but each is doing different things.

Diggin Deeper said...

Erin...

Very selective reasoning on your part.

First, there are just so many homes in Land Park, Curtis Park, East Sac that are on the market to be sold. What percentage of total buying public do they attract... 2-5% that are capable of making that purchase?

And if you think that emotion is a reasonable trigger when making a decision on whether to buy a home or not...so many families did that during the mania and they're now left with financial rubble to deal with. Making emotional decisions when making life's most important purchase makes absolutely no sense regardless of family, decorating, flower gardens, or any other rose colored way you want to say it. It's typical real estate jargon that plays in better times.

Real estate in Sacramento is not based on slivered enclaves or zip codes that continue to sell. Those slivers are few and far between and cater to a very small part of the overall market. Rather, it's based on a wide angled view of communities where buyers and sellers are not in sync at this time. And anything from NAR, CAR, or SAR, most will take with a grain of salt. They've consistently proved to be unreliable with their data, especially over the last year or so.

If there isn't a "Have To" in the decision whether to sell or buy, one should tread very carefully in this market. There are too many other options available that will allow prospective buyers time to wait until the risk/reward ratios begin to balance out.

Diggin Deeper said...

Sippn....

"Sac real stats and others often only show us the Realtor listed side, missing new and missing most of the REO."

Wouldn't that compound the problem? So if we strip out food and energy...oops, I mean "new" and REO" and we're at 15 months, how would fewer starts or uncounted REO's help in anyway? Isn't the ratio of new to existing something like 5 or 6 to one?

Gwynster said...

Sorry Erin

What I hear is "blah blah blah, time to buy, blah blah or Land Park blah blah". It's like the teachers in the old Peanuts cartoons with a few buzz phrases tossed in.

I looked at both Woodland and Davis earlier this year. Even in March, I got the "better buy now because we're at the bottom". Nothing will get me to walk away from an agent in mid sentence faster.

The fact is, if I had put down my 74K as a down, I would have lost it already. I watch those zips like a hawk, REO, SS, what have you. Davis had the detox shakes after the MEW supply dried up and has now been b!tch slapped by the fallout of the jumbo loan market and the initial sting is just now registering. And those UCD seed loans for faculty to get around the credit crunch? Rumor has it that they are now pretty much toast. Don't bother trying to get a recruitment package through with them anymore.

Woodland has overnight drops on REOs of 50k to 70K on starter homes. So buying something small and holding would have been a great investment there alrighty.

We're overbuilt in Sac co alone by 20k units not accounting for new units introduced since July 2006 and not including the outmigration numbers.

Yes- I said outmigration as in people leaving the region for affordable markets. These are the lower to median income potential first-time buyers that this market needs to keep function. Mention moving to another state to a Davis agent and you'll watch their face fall as they get that defeated look. I've seen it many times as they are really, really, really hoping you will be the one buyer left who is looking to stay in the region.

And that first big wave of foreclosures is happening now which means we'll see that inventory dumped on the market next year in late summer if the servicing shops have their act together. I predict they'll be so overwhelmed that they really won't be processed until spring 09 and the flood gates open.

I haven't even touched the PCI and MHI data for the region and what this means. I'll leave it to you to figure out what that data translates into. You're a Realtor after all so have to be a really smart cookie right?

ps. stern letter to follow

Gwynster said...

Sippin,

That was utter BS and you know it. I'll let Diggin rip you a new one, he has more patience then me these days >; )

Diggin,

Did see something about attracting high paying jobs? I know you must of been kidding and just needed to add a /sarcasm off tag. This region now hosts job faire solely for retail workers. We just had one. And we all know how well retail pays.

Diggin Deeper said...

How do you really feel, Gwynn?

Sippn said...

New sales and starts have gone somewhere from a peak in the high teens (17-18K annually)to down around 7-8K. While it is not 50% of the market, that will impact overall inventory and supply.

It was a part of the oversupply, it will play a part of the reduction.

Can't have it both ways.

Don't dissagree with you on jobs - a recruiter friend says she has been only placing "contract" employees for the past few months, but another industry, engineering and public works type stuff is going begging, scooping up lots from the building industry.

G - it ain't all about you:).

Diggin Deeper said...

Erin....

No offense, but real estate people don't get too much leeway on this blog. Those that have been on it since before the bubble burst, have seen landscape unfold pretty much as was predicted.

Those in the profession have a profession to protect and livlihood to pursue. We sometimes get that "radiant" real estate gobblygook jargon that frankly will not play well under current martket conditions.

Sippn and Agent Bubble are probably the only real estate people that have continued to endure, each with very different viewpoints.

We encourage you to continue with us but realize that it's no easy task to convince this blog that Sac aint "toast"

AgentBubble said...

You guys realize that you can check how long a realtor's been licensed at the DRE site right? Might help you to understand comments they make from time to time....

http://www2.dre.ca.gov/PublicASP/pplinfo.asp

Although personally, I've found the same "Buy now" attitude in most of them regardless of tenure.

smf said...

"Unfortunately the mass media gloom fails to report that there are something like 97.4% of homeowners making their payments on time"

That is not the point. The problem is very simple, and it goes back to the 'supply and demand' equation.

The runup was caused by excess demand (speculative), not by more people looking for homes. Those who speculated in housing did not do so to get an end user in that home, but to wait long enough for house inflation to give them a profit.

Hence, if 30% of the housing demand in the last few years was and excess, one time demand, it follows that the price rise that followed was also false. That is why some bloggers believe that the prices WILL go back to their normal levels, as it happens with every bubble.

Now, that 2.6% of the mortgages that are not being paid in time are still a HUGE number, no matter how it is spinned. That is millions of homes that have a problem paying their mortgage.

And for sure you have very desirable areas. But guess what? Only a few people could buy into those areas before, and only a few can do it now, and even when prices correct, only a few will be able to purchase anyways. But all of the people who purchase these homes are move-up buyers, and they WILL have a hard time selling in this market anyways.

Diggin Deeper said...

Sippn...

Got to get rid of the current overhang in REO's and News before your 10,000 New decrease has any impact. By that time, REOs will probably over run News by a bunch.

Can't see how even a moderate uptick in selling due to lower pricing will consume that much inventory in time before we get the next chunk of foreclosures to take its place. And if by chance the economy doesn't soft land, all bets are off as the job picture will curtail sales even further.

Gwynster said...

"G - it ain't all about you:)."

Never said it was. Bring on all the emotionality you want but data doesn't lie.

Have a nice day

Diggin Deeper said...

Smf...

"Now, that 2.6% of the mortgages that are not being paid in time are still a HUGE number"

And probably twice to three times that percentage in frothy areas like San Diego, OC, Sacramento, and the Bay area. For a big chunk of the buying public, toxic paper was the only way to make the dream real.

anon1137 said...

If you're concerned about the financial security of your family, the responsible thing to do in this market is to RENT and SAVE. You *can* raise children, plant a garden, and decorate in a rented home.

But if you're more concerned about the financial security of flippers, builders, RE agents, mortgage "strategists", Countrywide Financial Corp., Bear Stearns Co., hedge funds, wealthy investors, and other homeowners who bought during the last four years than you are about your own family, by all means buy a house.

Now where are those juicy DQ numbers for September?

HOUSE2008 said...

^ Yeah! What She/he said! Just kidding.:)

Seriously, I can't tell you how MANY times my wife & I would go to several aquintances new homes and invietably be asked (like having children) where we lived. The conversation would eventually turn to the fact that we were renting for now and their would be this look or people would outright ask where my wife & I worked (meaning didn't we make money?) Oh we make it as OK not a lot but OK( no B.S. here) between US ( I wish she didn't have to work) but fact is I was NOT going to pimp my self out to a tune of 50-70% of OUR income trying to live in "Land park"
( Fab 40's would be nice :). I'd tell them the truth & say I couldn't afford one right now & smile. Well there's nothing like seeing all your aquaintences & friends look at you oddly ( I know what they were kinda thinking) for not owning. Few of them are now foreclosed as I wait for a solid deal to come along.

So to erin, please be cognizant that this is a gov't town with avg income of 50-70k (in general) which means owning a home in the 300-400k is rather out of reach of most people. Till home prices come down to the 180k-250k there's not going to be a lot of movement of homes. So try to figure out how long a 400K house will take to get to 250K then there will be signs of recovery. 2009/10

Jacob said...

It was depressing in 04 / 05 when people I knew that made less money than me had wonderful houses, a couple nice cars, big screen tvs, and could take vacations several times a year.

Meanwhile I was just saving most of my money and wondering why I couldnt afford anything.

I saw this posted at another blog cant remember where, but it is pretty funny, every buyer should have to watch this before signing.

http://www.milkandcookies.com/link/41738/detail/

SacramentoCrash said...

Two years of inventory or more in Natomas and Elk Grove.

REO Foreclosures, Pre Foreclosures, FBs, new developWhore units hitting the market all at once.

Now that is a Perfect Storm!

erin@erinattardi.com said...

My my! I had no idea that my views would generate such animosity from the loyal following of this blog (insert sarcasm here). I appreciate all of your comments regarding my perspective, or lack thereof. ;-) Throughout the day I thus far I have received no less than 15 emails from readers of this blog thanking me for my thoughts, and asking me to continue to share my thoughts on this forum, and asking me to provide them with stats (which I gladly will when I have more time this evening). Crucify me, make fun of me, mock me, or whatever. I will not loose sleep over the view of others expressed on this blog.

I work in the trenches of real estate, and unlike a lot of you, I do see what goes on from day to day and not just what the media wants me to see. In 2007, I have seen my own listings sell quickly for in some cases almost 30% more than the Zestimates and that were fantastic buys for the purchasing parties. In 2007, have represented 4 separate buyers in 4 separate transactions where there were multiple offers from other interested parties. On the other side of the coin, have also seen sellers with unrealistic expectations of what their homes are worth, and the fact that almost every house with dead grass has an devastating story behind why it sits on the market as an REO...you all seem to sneer smugly at the misfortunes of others.

I have no idea what any of you do for a living. I probably have some strong opinions with regard to your respective professions too. I don't pretend to know everything. Someone mentioned Davis and Woodland in a previous comment. I know nothing about those areas, and I have never done a transaction in Yolo County, and would likely refer someone interested in those areas to another agent. I just referred a client with a home he wants to sell in El Dorado County to another agent.

I do however, know Sacramento County very (very) well. All neighborhoods in Sacramento County are micro-markets with their own real estate trends. Don't believe me? I am happy to debate this with anyone in person, as I work about 60 - 80 hours a week and this forum is too time consuming for constructive debate. Because of my deep knowledge of real estate in Sacramento County, intimate familiarity with neighborhoods, among other things, I am one of the busier agents in my office. I have lived here my entire life and graduated from CSUS. I purchased my first house at age 19. I did several personal real estate transactions (using other agents) in different real estate climates prior to obtaining my license. I am an information hound, as many of you are, and prior to obtaining my real estate license (which I am sure all of you have looked up by now) poured through statistics and any real estate-related information I could find to satiate my interests. Minus my real estate license, I am probably a lot like many of you, just with a slightly modified perspective. I feel fortunate NOT to have been an agent during the boom. Ya'll don't get the satisfaction of lumping me in to that category! ;-)

Hey - take my comments with as many grains of salt as you wish. Cheers!

Erin

PS: Yes Foreclosed REO's, short sales and the like are included in Trendgraphix reports.
Also - to Mike in Roseville...I would need more information to give you a useful answer. Are these the only neighborhoods that you find appealing, and which areas within those parts of town are you interested in? Are you interested in new(er) construction? Are you looking for something turn-key, or a fixer? What size of house are you seeking, and what size lot? Do you have a credit score under 700? Will you need to do 100% financing, or do you have a downpayment? Do you have income that is not easily documented, or not consistent over the last few years? Depending on your answers to these and other questions, it may make sense for you to buy now, or wait a year and then re-evaluate market conditions in your specific neighborhoods of interest.

David said...

"Unfortunately the mass media gloom fails to report that there are something like 97.4% of homeowners making their payments on time"

If 2.6% don't pay this month and get foreclosed they no longer get counted, then next month 2.6% don't pay and get foreclosed..... Adds up to a lot of people in the end.

Regarding builders still pushing stuff out. Someone said it earlier, the planning can last years. You have preliminary investigations to see if the property is worth buying, then getting zoning variances, initial design, geotechnical investigations to guide the engineers in design, design of the earthwork, the utilities, foundations, roads, drainage, etc, etc, etc. Then it goes out to bid for grading and building. From start to finish you are talking many years and a bunch of $$$$. That is a lot of inertia to overcome and only the biggest companies can hold the costs and not build. Most of these guys did all of this stuff on borrowed money and the bank wants their money. And many localities have deadlines on how long they can take to go from breaking ground to built homes.

Diggin Deeper said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Diggin Deeper said...

"My my! I had no idea that my views would generate such animosity from the loyal following of this blog"

Hey Erin...there's no animosity here...just some very well informed people that have heard most of the realty "speak" before when it had relevence in a balanced and growing market. Today, in this market, it is compeltely irrelevent, and for the most part insulting to those who've actually been through the ups and downs in real estate over many years. Some of us have a pretty good perspective of past downturns and why they occurred. Do you? Quite frankly how they even compare to what we're in today is beyond me.

It's great you are working 60-80 hours a week. It'll take all of that especially if you are unseasoned or fairly new to the real estate business. But if you make it through this one, you'll be set for the upturn. One thing's for certain...your clients do have a lot to choose from right about now.

Gwynster said...

"My my! I had no idea that my views would generate such animosity from the loyal following of this blog"

You were expecting tea and scones maybe?

Eduard Karsulzke said...

"you all seem to sneer smugly at the misfortunes of others."

It is the other way around. Just pay-back time from very recently when all these *smart* people suggested we were complete idiots by not committing financial suicide. It was not called that then, but that's the reality. You know it and we know it.

They are not the victims, they are the culprits!

erin@erinattardi.com said...

I actually am more partial to coffee and donuts ;-)

Well I have enjoyed reading all of your responses. I am glad to see there are so many folks out there who are keeping their finger on the pulse of real estate...believe it or not, informed buyers / sellers makes my role a bit less stressful, and I wish most of my clients were this relatively well informed. I suppose we can agree to disagree on some points. Perhaps one day ya'll will stumble upon one of my open houses or something and we can chat in person. I think I have spent more time on this site on and off today than I do on my own blog most days. I will continue to post stats on my blog, and you are all welcome to email me if you want specific stats for a particular area or market segment.

Erin

anon1137 said...

Hey Erin, one last thing before you scoot.

You should do an informal poll on this blog, which is populated by many prospective buyers, on how many of us plan to use a full commissioned agent, such as yourself, to buy a house when we eventually get around to buying. You might be surprised at the answer . . . or maybe you won't.

AgentBubble said...

You just opened a can of worms now...Prepare for the many reasons paying 6% to list your house is a good idea or getting a 50% commission incentive when you buy is a bad idea. As an independent broker (who once worked for a large broker), I've heard every excuse in the book.

Gwynster said...

Erin,

I don't hate all agents. I just have a hard time with ones that try to blow hot air up my skirt. I've had some great discussion at open houses which always occur after the agent realizes I'm not buying that house. Then the attitude adjusts and we dish numbers and swap data.

If more agents did that, much like our beloved AgentBubble, then I'm sure I wouldn't have the dim view of the industry that I do.

Oh and if you think we're harsh, try the HBB some day. There are some downright scarily brilliant people there.

Cmyst said...

I don't really take joy in the misfortune of others under normal circumstances.
For much of 2001 through 2005, I was wondering what in the name of Heaven I was doing wrong. Because I THOUGHT I was making a good income, and yet I'd go into neighborhoods where I knew the people were working jobs paying less than my own, and they had new cars and new furniture, etc. And in some nicer neighborhoods that I knew were beyond my own budget -- again, I'd see people who I knew were working jobs that paid much less than mine, many times with several dependents that I don't have, living in areas where I'd guess they'd have to be making about 200K a year to really afford.
You know, it is hard to feel sympathy for people who wanted to live so large based on borrowed money, and who didn't seem to realize that sooner or later the piper must be paid.
For those of us who DID realize that, yes, after years of watching this debacle we are now relieved and to some extent vindicated.
Many of us long suspected that something fishy was going on, but it took the blogs and people who were willing to research it to support our suspicions with facts.
Three years ago, I had no clue about fundamentals of RE such as rent/ownership cost comparisons, the normal appreciation of a house and how that compares as an investment to the stock market, and the ratios of debt to income that are reasonably sustainable and on which sound lending practices are based.
Knowing these things, I can only surmise that housing prices MUST come down substantially. Until then, I'm not homeless -- I'm a renter. With plenty of choices in a very large price range, in the exact neighborhoods I'm tracking resales for about 1/2 the cost.

norcaljeff said...

"Curtus Park" is actually spelled Curtis Park. Not sure you can make comments on that area if you can't spell it correctly.

And if Erin were selling so many homes in this incredible RE market, it's kinda odd she has all the time in the world to write these long posts instead of writing contracts.