Tuesday, January 22, 2008

Sacramento Foreclosures "Skyrocket" to "Stratospheric Levels"

From DQNews:

The number of mortgage default notices filed against California homeowners jumped last quarter to its highest level in more than fifteen years, a real estate information service reported. Lending institutions sent homeowners 81,550 default notices during the October-to-December period. That was up by 12.4 percent from 72,571 the previous quarter, and up 114.6 percent from 37,994 for fourth-quarter 2006, according to DataQuick Information Systems. Last quarter's number of defaults was the highest in DataQuick's statistics, which go back to 1992...Last quarter's default numbers were a record in 42 of the state's 58 counties.
...
Trustees Deeds recorded, or the actual loss of a home to foreclosure, totaled 31,676 during the fourth quarter. That's the highest since DataQuick began tracking Trustees Deeds in 1988. Last quarter's total rose 30.8 percent from 24,209 in the previous quarter, and jumped 421.2 percent from 6,078 in fourth quarter 2006. In the last real estate cycle, Trustees Deeds peaked at 15,418 in third-quarter 1996.
...
Of the homeowners in default, an estimated 41 percent emerge from the foreclosure process by bringing their payments current, refinancing, or selling the home and paying off what they owe. A year ago it was about 71 percent.
Sacramento County Notices of Default: 5,807, 120.4% YoY

Calculated Risk has some nice historical charts of California foreclosures.

From the Sacramento Bee:
Foreclosures and defaults soared to stratospheric levels in Sacramento and the rest of the state last year...Notices of default in the eight-county Sacramento region, stretching from Amador to Nevada counties, were up 106 percent in the quarter. For all of 2007, foreclosures in greater Sacramento were up an astonishing 496 percent, to 10,049, DataQuick said.
From the KSN.com:
The nationwide foreclosure crisis has forced millions of people to move out of their homes. But the forgotten victims are the dogs and cats left behind. In California alone, thousands of these animas have become pets in peril.

Sydney is a two-year-old Golden Retriever and an animal victim of California’s mortgage meltdown. She currently lives at the Sacramento SPCA along with dozens of other displaced pets. "The reason Sydney is here is she was given up last year from people who were moving. And she's a wonderful dog and we've adopted her," said SPCA Director Rick Johnson.

Sydney is one of the lucky ones, because at this shelter, the number of abandoned pets has doubled in the last four months. SPCA Animal Services Worker Sarah Varanin said, "We had about 33 dogs come in on Saturday alone. So it's just increasing every day."
KCRA (video): Mayor Heather Fargo's take on the Sacramento real estate market and budget mess.

This headline caught my attention:


What they really meant was 14 years:
Only 30 percent of Placer County employers are planning to add employees in the first six months of the year, according to a recent survey by Roseville accounting firm Gallina LLP....[E]mployers were predicting the slowest growth in the 14-year history of the survey. About half as many employers plan to add jobs in the first half of 2008 as did in the first half of 2007...73 percent of those surveyed said the weak housing market was hurting business, compared to 56 percent one year ago.
Then again maybe it was a Freudian slip. From OpEdNews.com:
From an historical prospective, the real estate market has always been a gauge of the greater U.S. economy from nine months to 18 months earlier than the overall economy.
...
The entire U.S. economy is at the brink of not only a recession, but much worse teetering on the brink of a depression...There have been six depressions since 1837 in the U.S...The cause of every major depression has been land speculation. Economist Henry George discovered this fact 120 years ago. However, never before in U.S. economic history has there been as much land speculation than in the past decade. Land from Florida up the eastern seaboard in New York across the nation to California has been purchased by speculators at the highest rate in the nation’s history, much of it with little money down to protect investors interests.
From Roseville & Rocklin Today:
Last week I got sort of embroiled in a debate with some of the regulars at Sacramento Land(ing). I do enjoy reading the blog but have to remember that the diehard fans there believe very strongly that all Realtors are evil and self serving. It always makes me chuckle when you click on one of their names, like “happy renter” or a host of other equally cute monikers and are directed to their blank profiles. Why is it so hard to believe that most Realtors care about their clients and place their needs above making a commission? We understand being a Realtor is relationship business and doing what is right for the client is right for our business.

34 comments:

norcaljeff said...

I guess we're at the bottom of this slump, or was it last week? Or the week before? Or the week before that? No, it was a month ago. No, it was the month before that. No, it was last quarter.
Any stupid RE bulls wanna call the bottom? Get real. No one is buying your lies!
Regarding that realtor mentioning this blog, she claims to be doing whats right for her client. But for some silly reason, none of her advice is for her clients to sit on the sidelines this year...so I'd have to call bullsh_t on her!

Gwynster said...

ok who is the idiot still trying to flip?
MLS #: 80006671

Wasn't this area having a lot of problems with taggers?

smf said...

Let us not forget that some of us ARE ACTUALLY HOME OWNERS!!!

If realtors had their client's interest in mind, they would not have allowed to overpay or get cashback from their transactions.

RE agents are the music stores of the 1990's. They failed to keep up with the times and will be relegated to minimum positions in the future.

sacramentia said...

The Realtor has a fair point - most of us on the board are hiding behind empty profiles. But that is what makes it a debate of ideas rather than accomplishments. And quite frankly why people shouldn't pay so much attention to what is written here.

Bakersfield Bubble said...

Worst market in 154 years. DOes that take us back to the last "real gold rush" - LMFAO!! That is too funny!

smf said...

"most of us on the board are hiding behind empty profiles"

I don't know about you, but I have a fairly good reason to 'hide'. Since I am actually in the construction trade, where my actually identity known (some do know it) I would get into terrible trouble.

"And quite frankly why people shouldn't pay so much attention to what is written here."

I call it as I see it, and have been proven right many times over. I was one of the first to state that more houses were built than people available to occupy them, at any price point

David said...

All that guy did was probably get more people to come to this blog!

Gwynster said...

"So rather that get that started again,...."

Shouldn't that be
"So rather _than_ get that started again,...."

I guess the paper can't afford a competent editor either.

Gwynster said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Gwynster said...

"I call it as I see it, and have been proven right many times over. I was one of the first to state that more houses were built than people available to occupy them, at any price point"

so true. I didn't realize how right you were and how much we'd overbuilt until I ran the numbers -ouch. I think the Placer charts are still on my blog somewhere.

alba said...

NOD's picking up the pace in Placer County, although there was a lull for the last few months. Several repeat notices. Only a few above the median. Still NO sales of NTS at the courthouse steps in the last month...all "Back to Bene." Bene(ficiary) owns a LOT of homes taht need to be sold. He should call Julie!

Patient Renter said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Patient Renter said...

The name's patient renter, not happy renter, though I am quite happy to be renting. Anyways, to your strawman, er, I mean comment:

"the diehard fans there believe very strongly that all Realtors are evil and self serving"

Wrong. The diehard fans here never stated any such thing. We're quite friendly towards some Realtors, just not those who truly don't respect the best interests of their clients and cheered on a market that was clearly in a dangerous bubble. You like layoffs? Bankruptcies? Forclosures? Inflation? Recession? This all is the result of the bubble that most Realtors cheered on.

"Why is it so hard to believe that most Realtors care about their clients and place their needs above making a commission"

In a market that is declining VERY fast, I imagine it would be hard to find a scenario where it is in the best interests of someone to purchase a home, but failure to fully inform a client about the current nature of the market is not doing them a favor, and is certainly self-serving. Ignorance of the true gravity of the market decline is a sorry excuse. If a bunch of bloggers could figure it out, so could you.

Cmyst said...

My cutesy name has been my screen name since the early 90's, back in the old "bulletin board" and IRC times.
No one has to believe my back story. I don't publicize my real name or any overly-identifiable work information because I was once dragged into an agency administrator's office and raked over the coals for "publishing" information about my job (I disliked the employer's mandate to wear green and white, but refusal to purchase scrubs).
Since I'm not a Realtor, I don't feel the need to post my picture and contact information on every available public venue.
And I don't hate Realtors. I'm not too happy with mortgage brokers, flippers, and speculators -- Realtors are just salespeople. Can't blame 'em for the hard sell. The Realtor that I used to buy and then sell my condo was a very decent man, not at all pushy, diplomatic -- a good Joe. I like him. I worry about his economic well-being at times.
If anything, I blame the media for asking the RE folks for the story on housing instead of going to independant sources who didn't have anything to gain financially by twisting the truth.
Quite frankly, I'm incredibly grateful that I pay attention to this blog and other bubble blogs. I made a nice little sum in shorting the stock market, real estate/builders, and the financials in the last few months. And the bulk of my meager savings is in Euros and money market accounts now. So by all means, folks, keep feeding me your unreliable and anonymous tips, and thank you very much!

Buying Time said...

I thought we were complaining about how the RE industry seems to think its a media problem causing their troubles...

I think we are being misquoted, as I don't remember complaining about Realtors making an honest living that day.

And they complain about our spin.

sacramentia said...

Cmyst - Hat tip for having the conviction to act and make some money shorting the market. I truly respect that.

Smf - If you were so right why didn't you sell your home?

anon1137 said...

If you're looking for a used Lexus, I think there might be a lot of them available by the end of the summer.

smf said...

"Smf - If you were so right why didn't you sell your home?"

1. We actually LOVE our house. Very hard to find something as nice for the price range. It is a 2200 sq.ft. custom home on a .25 acre lot. Built in 2003.
2. House is 5 minutes from work, for both of us.
3. Rentals could be iffy with landlord.
4. Decided long ago that I had lost more money being greedy than conservative.

norcaljeff said...

The Realtor has a fair point - most of us on the board are hiding behind empty profiles. But that is what makes it a debate of ideas rather than accomplishments. And quite frankly why people shouldn't pay so much attention to what is written here.

So she's better than us because she puts her name, phone number and email address next to her lies? Was Hilter also better since he made the trains run on time? Get real. We're all real and we call her BS! Doesn't change the fact that she sells out her clients for a bigger bank account.

norcaljeff said...

P.S. When has she posted under her real name? I've never seen it.

Diggin Deeper said...

"I made a nice little sum in shorting the stock market, real estate/builders, and the financials in the last few months. And the bulk of my meager savings is in Euros and money market accounts now."

Bravo! It easy to stand by and complain about what's not going right. It's a little tougher but a helluva lot more profitable to do something about it.

SacramentoCrash said...

"Why oh why must it always be the little old lady with her modest portfolio of CD's and safe dividend paying utility stocks that is made to pay the price for the deadbeats who take out loans they cannot make good on and the bankers that lend it to them?

Deflation is good for the frugal with cash, inflation is good for the fool with $25,000 in credit card debt, a liar loan and a $750,000 house he had no business buying in the first place.

This country has become a nation of whining parasites demanding the few who live responsibly bail them out again and again. Give me the damned recession and let the fools pay the price."

Sippn said...

You folks are worried about what it says in Roseville Rocklin Today?

PR - I think there is a "Happy Renter" out there.... aren't you all?

SMF - Good for you and I bet if you did the rent/buy equasion today based on your 2003 purchase, it would be pretty good - especially if you factor the 5 minutes to work vs gas vs free time.

sacramentia said...

smf - thanks for sharing all your good reasons, sounds like you have a nice place. I own my home too and have no interest in selling it.

Diggin Deeper said...

"This country has become a nation of whining parasites demanding the few who live responsibly bail them out again and again. Give me the damned recession and let the fools pay the price."

Amen...by the way, just who are bailing out with all this free money that the govt is about to throw our way?

Jeremiah said...

Ms. Jalone's website is embarrassing - she really needs an editor. And Firefox.

Hey, Jalone - Firefox has spellcheck IN TEH BROWSWER!


Is now a great time to buy....or sell...real estate? It's almost like....like....you're transactional or something....who's your "client" again?!?

smf said...

"the 5 minutes to work vs gas vs free time"

That is probably the #1 reason we have not moved. Time and gas savings are huge for us.

Many took on house payments and did not take into account the other financial factors into account. Sure we could now purchase a 5000 sq.ft. house, but the additional utility charges, upkeep time, and other ancilliary charges would push us over the edge.

Patient Renter said...

Yea there is a "happy renter" though I haven't seen him/her post in a while.

"Amen...by the way, just who are bailing out with all this free money that the govt is about to throw our way?"

In this case it looks like a political bailout more than anything. Dropping a few hundred billion, only some of which will actually hit the economy, will dilute pretty quick pretty quick, and obviously isn't going to help anything... except those re-election campaigns. Pretty shameful stuff.

Kinda like the housing bailout plans that all the pols are tripping over themselves to one up each other on - they're not going to help anything except re-election. I only wish everyone could see this.

Jennifer said...

I am not an "exceedingly happy" renter, but I am content. We are renting in a fabulous neighborhood for less than half of carrying costs. I would rather own, to fix a place to my standards. HOWEVER, we moved to SAC from Michigan and lost $100,000, so needless to say we are a bit gun shy of purchasing in a declining market.

smf said...

"Kinda like the housing bailout plans that all the pols are tripping over themselves to one up each other on - they're not going to help anything except re-election. I only wish everyone could see this."

But first you have to acknowledge that the original problem was overspending.

Any bailout that calls for MORE consumer spending goes against what the original problems was.

There is nothing that a government can and should do to fix this.

If, for example, the normal home purchasing rate was (SWAG) 25 homes per 1000 population per year, and during the bubble it was 50, there is nothing that can be done to bring that number back up.

Jacob said...

politicians need votes. And telling people to grow up and take personnal responsability for their actions isnt going to get them.

You make $40k a year and bought a $400k home... Instead of telling that person that they SHOULD lose the home that they never should have been able to buy and never will be able to pay for, the government will find a way to keep them in the debt trap forever. Maybe 100year mortgages or something.

But the good news is that no matter what anyone does, the market will correct to proper fundamentals.

By the time we get a new president the majority of resets will already be over with.

Diggin Deeper said...

"But the good news is that no matter what anyone does, the market will correct to proper fundamentals."

They always do. Manipulation only fools fundamentals for just so long. That's why its quite likely that these rate cuts won't produce the results intended this time. It's one thing to drive mortgage rates down, but when you've got no equity, lenders won't give you a dime.

They can buy your votes but you gotta pay the debts they run up on your behalf. Remember, we elect these people to work on our behalf (snicker)

Patient Renter said...

"the government will find a way to keep them in the debt trap forever. Maybe 100year mortgages or something. But the good news is that no matter what anyone does, the market will correct to proper fundamentals."

Yea, it will either correct or collapse. But the part that is offensive to the rest of us is we as taxpayeres will get a bunch of debt and inflation to go along with the whole thing. It's BS.

"They can buy your votes but you gotta pay the debts they run up on your behalf. Remember, we elect these people to work on our behalf (snicker)"

Exactly. Bailouts have a price for everyone but obviously people are either ignorant or on the receiving side of the bailout, otherwise they'd be as offended as I am.

Jacob said...

I'll go with ignorant. According to National Geographic 63% of americans can't find iraq on a map so... However 90% of americans know when American Idol is on.