Friday, February 15, 2008

"Housing Market Slump Is Hurting Rental Housing"

From the Sacramento Bee:

Every business day in the region an average of 85 people lost their homes to lenders, near double the number of foreclosures from June, according to Fair Oaks-based, a Web site for real estate investors.
"I don't think we are seeing the worst of these numbers," said Robert Kleinhenz, deputy chief economist for the California Association of Realtors. Kleinhenz and others said they expect high foreclosure numbers to continue for at least another six months.
DataQuick Stats by County
DataQuick Stats by Zip

From the Sacramento Bee:
As foreclosures continue to grow in the capital-area real estate market, Sacramento and Elk Grove are copying a trend launched last year in Stockton: bus tours of bank-owned homes. As the buying season begins, three tours are planned for Feb. 23. There's one for investors in Sacramento and two for first-time buyers and investors in Elk Grove.
"I'd say one-third to half the bus will be Bay Area folks coming in," said Erin Newington, a First Priority mortgage coordinator.
From the Modesto Bee:
Rents are flat, sales are scarce and values are way down for apartment complexes and rental properties throughout the Northern San Joaquin Valley, landlords were told Wednesday at a Modesto luncheon. The California Apartment Association's economic forecast event told landlords what most of them already knew: The housing market slump is hurting rental housing.
John Citrigno, who specializes in multi-family housing sales for Coldwell Banker Commercial...said "historically unprecedented" competition from single-family rental homes is holding down apartment rents. Single-family home rents also have dropped. Citrigno said typical three-bedroom home rents in Stanislaus County two years ago were $1,200 to $1,500 per month. Now they're $900 to $1,200 per month.
From the Stockton Record:
Ben Balsbaugh, residential sales manager for PMZ Real Estate in Stockton, said most of the houses selling are foreclosure properties - about 77 percent of January's sales. Most home are selling below the $250,000 mark, he said.

Although prices could slip perhaps 5 percent more this year, he said, the market appears to be stabilizing. "Everyone thinks it's going to get a little better, but by the time it gets better, the smart money is already in," Balsbaugh said. "We're not going to see any more dramatic decreases."


Gwynster said...

when I saw people dumping MFRs in Davis, I knew the party was over.

btw, they still can't find renters for that overpriced el macero condo - I giggle every time I drive past it to my friends house.

smf said...

"We're not going to see any more dramatic decreases."

Yes, we are. Way too much inventory, for sale or for rent. Not only that, we are still awaiting for the rest of the world to feel the effects of their own local bubbles.

I expect demolitions to occur in the near future.

"historically unprecedented competition from single-family rental homes is holding down apartment rents"

This is the hidden inventory. Eventually most of these accidental landlords will liquidate.

"Kleinhenz and others said they expect high foreclosure numbers to continue for at least another six months."

In a normal market, sure. But this is not a normal market, is it? Plenty of immigrants also went and invested in their own countries.

And no one has answered the question yet? What will homeowners do, those that can actually afford their house payments, when a similar house is much cheaper than their current homes?

siflsockpuppet said...

The Foothill Farms house I grew up in is on the market. It started over $200,000 many months ago and is now down to $125,000. After its most recent jump down from the $160k's, I e-mailed the listing agen, who confirmed it is a short sale. I'm tempted to buy it, rent it out for 5-10 years (I think I could do slightly better than break even), then sell it, or keep renting it out if the market hasn't recovered. But I seriously doubt the lender would accept $125,000 for it.

bubblemachine said...

Balsbaugh said. "We're not going to see any more dramatic decreases."

This real estate shill is beyond contempt. Anyone with half a brain can look at the charts and see that the 2008 price decline will be more than 5%. The fools that take Balsbaugh's advice and buy now will be upside down within a year.

Anonymous said...

testify bubblemachine !
real exstate shill indeed. bet gwynster has gone from giggling to laughing her arse off in the corner now . . .

Tyrone said...

America's Free-Falling Housing Markets
Residents of Sacramento, Calif., where home sale prices for November 2007 fell a startling 18.6% over the year before, are likely breathing a sigh of relief.

That's because homeowners there stand to benefit from the Bush administration's initiative, announced this week, aimed at helping homeowners facing foreclosure. Called "Project Lifeline," and assembled by six of the nation's largest financial institutions, which service almost half of the country's mortgages, the program allows qualified homeowners to suspend proceedings for 30 days while providing them with rewriting and refinancing assistance.

SacramentoCrash said...

So is it going to be Party like it's 1999????

paranoid renter said...

Rents in my apartment complex have been steady or going up. Occupancy is a little bit down -- normally 4-6 vacancies, now about 15-20. They do offer a special when you first sign a lease but at the end of that you pay market rate or move. There's a lot of churn, so I guess people move to the next complex and get a special. Works if you have truck that can hold all your stuff.

alba said...

the cfo (wife) and I negotiated a pretty good deal over 2 years ago on a rental house in Rocklin, and we can't seem to beat it yet. We never thought we'd be here this long, and now want to move. We promised the kiddies a dog, when we purchased our next home. So we've decided to just get the dang dog, but the landlord says "no dogs." So, even with the price of moving, we've been on the hunt for another rental that allows dogs. All of the new listings I get from Oodle are higher than our rent, and not as good as this house/location. We're waiting!

Diggin Deeper said...

It's all about wages and the inability to cope with rising prices!

Just heard a news commentary that 67% of median income is now dedicated to housing, food, and, energy costs. If true that doesn't leave much for the consumer to spend and further puts us in a tight spot with regard to buying our way out of any downturns headed our way.

We're squeezing ourselves into a financial corner, needing more and more income to buy fewer and fewer goods. Soft commodities are enfuego...corn, wheat, soybeans, sugar... all the staples are on a big move upward. It takes time for these cost increase to filter down to the public as lower priced inventories are worked off and replaced with higher priced inventories.

If you buy a particular item on a regular basis and suddenly you find a new package for that product, chances are pretty good the content has been revised due to higher input costs. These package revisions are turning up almost weekly now. Net result is less content for more money.

Imho, if incomes don't join in and move up to meet the rising costs that eat up two thirds of an average person's wage, consuming will be transformed into surviving in a very short period of time. Any downturn that lacks wage growth will only make matters more challenging.

Incomes either rise or assets must fall in order to balance out and stimulate demand. In the 70's and early 80's wages were rising to meet the higher costs of inflation. It wasn't uncommon to get an 8-10% wage increase during that period. While those wage increases contributed to the hyperinflation we saw during those times, people were able to buy homes because their incomes were able to keep pace.

Not so today. You're lucky to see 2-4% per year especially in a govt town. Compound that increase over a 8 year period of time and wages would have risen 37%(using a 3.5% wage increase for 8 years). Real estate prices doubled and in some cases tripled over the same period. Is it any wonder why homes aren't selling today?

Real estate has shown to be the most vulnerable asset, with the most to lose, when incomes remain behind the curve of true inflation costs.

As wild as it may seem, an army of bulldozers might be one answer to the inventory problem as SMF suggests. I hear operators are paid pretty well.

Jacob said...

Besides the huge costs there are a lot of people that don't necessarily even want to own a home. Especially if you want to remain mobile and be able to take new jobs or promotions that require a transfer to a new area. Why not just rent.

Perfect Storm said...

Freddie Mac, Roper Poll Survey Asks Why More Delinquent Borrowers Don't Call Lenders for Help
Nearly Two-Thirds of Delinquent Borrowers Say They Are Unaware of Workout Options

Even if there was a bail out plan that actually would work not this political good will bullshit we hear about, it would fail because 75% of people who are ass backwards in a mortgage due to SUBPRIME MORTGAGE BROKER SCUM are too lame to even know they may have some hopeless option.

If you are upside down in your home just walk away and give it to the bank, just think how corporate America has done it for decades, why suffer just leave and give your lender a wrong phone number.

Were right on track for a 50% decline by 2009.