Wednesday, February 13, 2008

'Relying on Luck' in Folsom

From the Central Valley Business Times:

Five of the top ten [California] counties for foreclosures last month were in the Central Valley, led by San Joaquin County with 1,000 homes going on the auction block, a 700 percent increase over the number a year earlier. Stanislaus County is ranked third in the state on a per capita basis with Sacramento County fourth, Yolo County fifth and Merced County seventh, according to the computations by ForeclosureRadar.
From the Central Valley Business Times:
The Stockton metro area in the Central Valley had the nation’s second-highest home foreclosure rate last year among the nation's 100 largest metro areas, says a new report from RealtyTrac Inc. of Irvine, a foreclosure information company. With 4.866 percent of its households entering some stage of foreclosure during the year, Stockton saw a total of 22,184 foreclosure filings on 10,608 properties, up 271 percent from 2006, RealtyTrac says.
...
Other California metros with foreclosure rates in the top 20 are Riverside-San Bernardino at No. 4, Sacramento at No. 5, Bakersfield at No. 7, Fresno at No. 14 and Oakland at No. 16.
From the Sacramento Bee:
The city of Sacramento is sending out additional pink slips to 12 workers in its Development Services Department today, for a total of 28 full-time employees this month.
...
Development Services, which found itself in the red this year, has taken the first significant hits, said Director Bill Thomas. His department handles building permits, planning and inspections, among other tasks. "When you get a housing slump, we're the first to feel impacts," Thomas said.
From Bloomberg:
When Mary Kamanu paid $409,000 for a house in Folsom, California, she never imagined that three years later it would be worth about 20 percent less and she would have to pay the bank more than $80,000 just to sell the place. "I'm completely upside-down on my mortgage, like a lot of people,'' said Kamanu, who wants to move 12 miles away to live with her fiancé in a suburb of Sacramento. "I know I'm going to have to come up with a big chunk of change.''
...
Kamanu refinanced her house in May 2007 and owes $415,000 on her mortgage. Homes in her neighborhood now sell for about $330,000, she said...Kamanu said she doesn't want to put her life on hold until the housing market improves. She's planning a sunset wedding later this year on the beach at Folsom Lake, about half a mile from her property, even as she waits for a buyer.

She said she's willing to sell the three-bedroom, two-bath, 1,272-square foot house fully furnished and include two wide-screen televisions to entice a buyer. The home has a fireplace and a two-car garage. "I'm hearing it might be a year or two before the housing market comes back, and I can't wait that long," said Kamanu, 38. "I'm relying on luck, hoping that someone will come along and fall in love with the house, like I did.''

29 comments:

Bakersfield Bubble said...

Where is our realtor from Folsom who claimed that market was "different"? Maybe he can read this story and comment?

mopar777 said...

"Kamanu says she doesn't want to put her life on hold waiting for the house to sell"

OMG you poooooor thing. I remember my father telling me how many people didn't even have a house to go home to during the Great Depression. Don't these people know any american history? A financial calamity is just that - a calamity. Many people's plans are put on hold or worse. Just be glad he still wants to marry you Ms. Kamanu. Most guys wouldn't want the real threat of having their new wives' forclosure go on their credit record!

Max said...

fully furnished and include two wide-screen televisions to entice a buyer.

The only things falling faster in price than houses are furnishings and flat-screen TVs. Good luck with that.

Jacob said...

so is she taking the $80k off as well, or just throwing in $5k of junk instead lol.

And she bought in 2004 and 3 years later she owes $6k more.

I will be happy when people buy homes to live in and actually pay off the debt a little each year...

HappyinSF said...

Sorry Miss Kamanu, but when they say the market will come back in a few years they don't mean to the stupid price you payed.

smf said...

"but when they say the market will come back in a few years they don't mean to the stupid price you paid."

I love that part. Even some known bubbleheads assume that when the market recovers it will come back to the same price it was at its high.

Definition of a recovery:

1. Prices STOP dropping
2. They 'may' go up a few percentages per year.

Jacob said...

Actually the recovery is happening right now. When prices level off then the recovery is over.

mechanico said...

1200 sqft? Even if it bottoms a $200/sqft(A high figure) she's toast.

Cow_tipping said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Cow_tipping said...

Well, you can ride your luck for 2-3 years, and then after making the payments etc sell it for 120,000 or drop it off at the bank right now and walk. You are toast, and a $80,000 loss for the bank, which even if they do report to your credit ... is actually not worth paying 80K for, a good credit rating is at best worth 10K, I in fact will trash my credit for 5K, which I attempted to ~2 years ago.
I'd say, stop making payments, send the freaking keys in to the bank (make a copy of those keys first, so you can live there till they come knocking) and dont blow your load on a lavish wedding, cos your trashed credit is going to take out your poor fiance's credit also unless you have some weirdo pre-nup that excludes that (dunno what state of CA does in this regard) ...
BTW, I am looking to buy in the sacramento area in the nice areas at ~$100 a sqft unless you are on a very large lot with a big back yard (1/2 acre+) lets say $100 per sqft of house + 25K per 1/4 acre of backyard. I have much of that in cash, and the above mentioned excellent credit despite my attempts to trash it.
Cool.
Cow_tipping.

SacramentoCrash said...

Lot's of lucky Mary, NOOO ain't gonna happen.

wrong moves said...

Cow--"I am looking to buy in the sacramento area in the nice areas at ~$100 a sqft unless you are on a very large lot with a big back yard (1/2 acre+) lets say $100 per sqft of house + 25K per 1/4 acre of backyard."

Could you give me the name of your agent OOOORRR some of what you are smokin'? Cuz I would like that too, but don't want to live in Del Paso or such a place. My only addition would be a 3 car garage.
Seriously, are you seeing anything like that?

Gwynster said...

I don't see $100 per as an out of the world number. I remember seeing $275 to $300 all over the place last year and now if you are over $180, it's considered wishing. There is nothing but downward pressure coming so buckle up and keep your power dry >; )

inpd said...

Your missing the point.

How could you realistically pay
$400K+ for a 1200 sq ft home. That's
not even a Junior burger let a lone
a McMansion. It's tiny

Gwynster said...

$321 sqft says it all.

bubblemachine said...

jacob said... Actually the recovery is happening right now.

What in the world are you smoking? Recovery does not begin until we reach bottom and prices begin to slowly increase. That won't happen until at least TWO or THREE years from now.

commonsense said...

"BTW, I am looking to buy in the sacramento area in the nice areas at ~$100 a sqft unless you are on a very large lot with a big back yard (1/2 acre+) lets say $100 per sqft of house + 25K per 1/4 acre of backyard. I have much of that in cash, and the above mentioned excellent credit despite my attempts to trash it".

This is wishy washy talk. At $100/sq.feet all currently goofy renters will flock the bank to buy homes. I saw some fixers uppers in Citrus Height for $100-$110/sq.feet and sold like hot potateous. For an investor it doesn't make sense to buy homes and rent them out since all renters are currently qualifing for a 3bed-2bath up to $200K loan. Why pay $1,200/mont for rent while you can be the owner for the same monthly payments?

Cow_tipping said...

wrong moves said...

Seriously, are you seeing anything like that?

Ha ha ... I am not, however that is where its going. I am talking the elk grove and the flood-omas areas as well as the stucco city in roseville - AKA 1997 prices whihc IMHO were supported by a real economy but were depressed by higher interest rates. Anyway, I am waiting for that, and the 50% off in so-cal for DR horton, is definetly a step in the right direction. Make another 50% and we'll be there ...
BTW, expect a 20% down payment instead of the current 5K and the next 50% cut is in the bag.
Cool.
coe_tipping.

Cow_tipping said...

For an investor it doesn't make sense to buy homes and rent them out since all renters are currently qualifing for a 3bed-2bath up to $200K loan. Why pay $1,200/mont for rent while you can be the owner for the same monthly payments?

It goes down in steps, rents will start crashing too cos failed flippers are renting for what they can.
Cool.
Cow_tipping.

smf said...

"Why pay $1,200/mont for rent while you can be the owner for the same monthly payments?"

Many other true big $$ investors went the other way and built plenty of rentals for those that were going to be 'priced out of the market'.

We can talk about all the excess housing, but don't believe for a second that it doesn't apply to rental units as well.

There is excess 'for sale' housing and excess 'for rent' (built as rental) housing.

I would not touch any type of housing right now till everything shakes out.

G Spot1 said...

bubblemachine, I'm pretty sure jacob is saying that we are currently recovering from the insanity of the last few years - i.e., prices are "recovering" because they are returning to sane levels ;)

mechanico said...

http://template.metrolistmls.com/sacramentobee/cgi-bin/GetOne.cfm?MLSNum=80012648&

How about $109/sqft for .2 acres near a lake?

Gwynster said...

From the Bee:
Foreclosures nearly equal home sales in January
http://www.sacbee.com/749/story/713187.html

Patient Renter said...

"Why pay $1,200/mont for rent while you can be the owner for the same monthly payments?"

Because being the "owner" likely means your home is dropping in value faster than you can pay down the principal on your loan.

Jacob said...

bubblemachine, I'm pretty sure jacob is saying that we are currently recovering from the insanity of the last few years - i.e., prices are "recovering" because they are returning to sane levels ;)

Yes that is right. Recovery does not mean we start appreciating and recover to 2005 prices.

Look at where prices should be. If we are way below or way above the trendline and it starts to move back to the trendline then that is the recovery.

Once we get to the bottom and prices level off and start going up a percent here or there based on inflation and wages then the recovery is over and we are back to a normal market.

$100 ft2 would be pretty much perfect for me. Will we get there? Probably, I have seen a few homes in Roseville for around $110 ft2. Small lots, high HOA, but still the prices are getting better.

Banks are having auctions for 500, 1000 homes at once and selling 1, 2, none. And this is after a big discount. This problem is much bigger than the banks and government want to let known. Even with the $100B in writedowns, but bet is that that was just a drop in the bucket for what is to come.

alba said...

I'm "relying on luck" that Paulson and Bernanke find out we're in a recession, and find out the securitized paper market is collapsing.

Cow_tipping said...

mechanico said...
http://template.metrolistmls.com/sacramentobee/cgi-bin/GetOne.cfm?MLSNum=80012648&

How about $109/sqft for .2 acres near a lake?

Thursday, February 14, 2008 12:48:00 PM


Well, I meant for a 1 storey with 2 car gar, I dont want 2 storey, however a the second storey costs ~15-20 a sqft compared to the $75 the first storey costs. Also .2 acres is whole yard, not just backyard. Lake vicinity is OK, but depends on the lake, cos builders dig up a 1/4 acre lot cos they need the dirt and let it fill with rain water and call it a lake. I would call that a sewer. Not lake. real lake - OK vicinity is good. Over blown though, but OK good for a 5-10% premium. HOA, MR and other crap like school district commute, location etc etc can make it good or bad from my point of view.
Essentially I aint jumping at it, its still over $$$ ... but not frightfully so.
Cool.
Cow_tipping.

wrong moves said...

mechanico said...
http://template.metrolistmls.com/sacramentobee/cgi-bin/GetOne.cfm?MLSNum=80012648&

Hey, did y'all know that neighborhood is next to the empty lot where the new homeless enclave has located itself.

How pissed would you be right now? First, the market crashes and you are under water on your mortgage. Second, the Corps of Engineers says the levees are in bad shape and you may actually be under water, even on the second floor. Third, a bunch of homeless people decide to camp out in the open field across the fence from your McMansion. Oh yeah, those houses are under the arrival/departure corridor for Sac Int'l.

That was a good buy!!

David said...

mechanico said...
http://template.metrolistmls.com/sacramentobee/cgi-bin/GetOne.cfm?MLSNum=80012648&

ohh my god the house is in a swamp land with airplanes landing every 20 minutes. What a joke.... The area is also known to be the north highlands ghetto robery location.... It's like robin hood.... Steal from the white neighborhood.... That house will go for 240 by the time it's all said and done....