Friday, April 25, 2008

"A common that...these waters will start to calm"

From the Sacramento Bee:

Calling the bottom of a real estate cycle is more than difficult these days. It's perilous, an invitation for news sources who answer the question to be ripped by critics. There are so many points of view and so much passion. And there are so many who have offered false sightings in the past two years.
What many agree upon is that we're in the worst of it right now, shooting the river rapids and hanging on for dear life. A common hope, now that the first quarter is history, is that sometime in the third or fourth quarter of this year these waters will start to calm.
From the Sacramento Business Journal:
The median price of an existing, single-family detached home in California during March 2008 was $413,980, a 29 percent decrease from the revised $582,930 median for March 2007, C.A.R. reported...In the Sacramento area, the median price for a single-family home sold in March was $258,460, 28.8 percent below the sales price of a year ago....
From Sacramento State News:
Only 49 percent of area residents believe things in the Sacramento region are going in the right direction—the first time since 2002 that less than half of residents surveyed are happy with the direction in which the region is heading....
From the Wall Street Journal:
Local television stations across the country are suffering a decline in advertising revenue in the tough economy, despite a blockbuster political season. Buffeted by the faltering real-estate market and shrinking auto sales, total ad revenue for local stations nationwide fell 2.3% in the first quarter compared with the year-earlier period, according to the Television Bureau of Advertising, a trade group for local stations. And the second quarter is on pace for a 3% to 5% decline, according to Chris Rohrs, the group's president...Media companies have also been blaming slowdowns around Sacramento, Calif., and Las Vegas for lower ad revenue.


Deflationary Jane said...

Jim Jim Jim... you know I can't hate you after the Davis "white flight" piece you did and I know the paper must be making your life hell trying to find anything positive to say. But you have to quit defending the REIC bottom callers. They just make you look stupid.

smf said...

Even if, and I stress IF, we are near the bottom, there is a huge matzo ball out there.

What is going to happen when the resets start hitting the market??

There is a lot of people who bought and refinanced that are unable to make the full PITI payment.

They were counting on appreciation.

But appreciation is negative.

That will soon become the next stories of the RE cycle.

Jacob said...

the first time since 2002 that less than half of residents surveyed are happy with the direction in which the region is heading

So our 50% of the people happy prices are going down, or happy cause the believe NAR that the bottom has been reached?

we are 40% off or so and still homes are not affordable. You got a ton of Arms reseting this year.

Most of the sales are distressed and banks are taking back homes faster than they can sell them.

Any job losses are mounting.

Whre exactly is the bottom?

We have a global crisis on our hands, but I am sure it will work itself out in just a few more months. Forget that previous busts took 6 or more years to work out.

And we are hearing more and more about prime borrowers that can afford their mortgage just handing the keys back to the bank.

Why not, housing is an investment after all. And if your investment is not performing, you get rid of it. And if those losses were tired to the collateral of the house and you can default and take no loss yourself, even better.

mopar777 said...

Per a realtor I know, a duplex in Folsom changed hands last month. But she said that it didn't go through MLS and that it might have been a pocket deal. Could somebody please look up the recent history on 50 Dean way, 95630.
The poor guy that bought it a few years ago paid some astounding amount over $400K. A duplex just like about a block away at 111 Persifer also sold last month for about 320. That poor seller paid $485 during the boom.
Why aren't these sales showing up on Zillow or Metrolist?

Deflationary Jane said...

here it comes.....

Land Partnership
Gets Default Notice
April 26, 2008

A large California land partnership involving one of the largest U.S. pension funds has received a notice of default on a $1 billion loan after failing to meet certain terms of its lenders.

LandSource Communities Development LLC, a partnership that involves the California Public Employees' Retirement System, received the default notice Tuesday, amid talks to restructure $1.24 billion of debt. The partnership, which owns 15,000 acres in Southern California, had received an extension to meet its current loan terms, including a required payment, but the deadline expired on April 16. The default notice applies to about $1 billlion of the total debt.

/hattip to Calculated Risk

alba said...

What's worse, class 6 rapids, or a waterfall? I assume there'll be calm waters eventually...before the waterfall, and after.