Thursday, April 10, 2008

Sacramento Rated 8th Riskiest Housing Market by PMI

From a PMI press release:

PMI Mortgage Insurance Co., the U.S. subsidiary of The PMI Group, Inc., today released its Spring 2008 U.S. Market Risk Index [pdf], which ranks the nation's 50 largest metropolitan statistical areas according to the likelihood that home prices will be lower in two years.

1. Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA: 93.2%
2. Las Vegas-Paradise, NV: 91.9%
3. Orlando-Kissimee, FL: 85.2%
4. Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach-Deerfield Beach, FL: 84.1%
5. Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, AZ 1 84.0%
6. Santa Ana-Anaheim-Irvine, CA: 80.6%
7. West Palm Beach-Boca Raton-Boynton Beach, FL: 79.6%
8. Sacramento-Arden-Arcade-Roseville, CA: 77.7%
9. Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL: 77.6%
10. Los Angeles-Long Beach-Glendale, CA: 77.2%
From the Central Valley Business Times:
According to Default Research, the hardest hit areas currently are San Joaquin and Sacramento counties with over 5.5 percent of homes entering foreclosure, in terms of Notices of Default and Notices of Trustee Sales, which the company tracks. There were 3,495 homes in the foreclosure process in March in Sacramento County, according to the report. That’s triple the number in March 2007 and 5.56 percent more than in February.
From the Stockton Record:
Washington Mutual announced Tuesday a $1.1 billion loss for the first quarter and said it will close all its free-standing home loan centers and lay off about 3,000 workers nationally. This will mean five employees in San Joaquin County will lose their jobs with the April 30 shutdown of the Stockton Home Loan Center....
From the Stockton Record:
Crossing illegally into California for work, then coming to Stockton during this recession seems like ducking ocean liner fare by stowing away on the Titanic.

18 comments:

Diggin Deeper said...

You do a moonshot and you get to crash back to earth....The key question is just how much further will prices come down?

Jacob said...

I would say we will get to 75% off. We are already at 43% and foreclosures are still mounting.

More and more people that can afford to keep their home are waling away cause it is no longer a good "investment".

There are few people that want to buy homes to live in them and fewer still that can qualify based on their actual income and a loan that needs to be paid back (as opposed to any income you want to make up on a loan that doesn't get paid back until you refinance).

And now job losses are starting to pile up.

It is amazing that even after most homes have lost over 1/3 of their peak value that they are still over priced when compared to the actual incomes of the area.

Diggin Deeper said...

Wow...just think, a 4000 sq ft. McMansion selling for $1 Million in '94 could be picked up for $250K. I'm ready to write the check...

Jacob said...

Once the government turns all the unused mcmansions into half way houses and homeless shelters, I think you will want to keep you money.

Im thinking more of the homes that should be $100k that were selling for over $350k.

Patient Renter said...

Once the government turns all the unused mcmansions into half way houses and homeless shelters, I think you will want to keep you money.

Hahaha, yea. Leave it big government intervention to come up with the stupidest ideas you'll ever hear of.

Diggin Deeper said...

There goes the neighborhood... you're down $750,000 and the state steps in and provides housing for the helpless...they probably invoke emminent domain...

Now that's the epitomy of being "upside down". The term "fire sale" will then be taken literally as you're better off watching it go up in flames than waiting for a band of roaming squatters to take posseession of your neighbor's home...

Jacob...I think your advise was wise...I think I'll hold off writing that check when it hits that level.

Diggin Deeper said...

Here's one that I'll bet gets multiple offers.

Westlake 5 BR

5006 Stroman Ln...

Sold in 2003/04 for well over $800K

Now on sale for $450,000...

Deflationary Jane said...

Been sort of watching the West Sacramento Bridgeway Lakes area. It's not hard to get a 2400sqft place for under $300k. I saw one list for $271k. That puts it right up there with EG and Natomas for $/sqft and if you follow the trustee notices, there's more plenty coming.

Diggin Deeper said...

Gwyn...Getting pretty close to that $100 per sq ft level although I question whether higher West Sac crime rates are worth paying less to live there...I guess the lakes area could be consider a bit further out...

neverborne said...

Hey Jane,

How is that area? I was originally looking at antelope, but I took a drive through there last weekend and it was looking pretty nasty.

Deflationary Jane said...

Not sure what it looks like now. I was taking pictures of it last spring when I could find literally every other house on an block for rent or sale.

The Bridgeway lakes areas/Southport area is a lot better then the Bryte/broderick neighborhood. I know there are plans in place to gentrify the area north of the 5 along the river but I think you can expect that to happen about as fast as Oak Park is gentrifying which is to say not very fast at all.

Now if they go through with the proposal to build a bridge between EG and Southport, expect the crime rate to shoot up.

Deflationary Jane said...

Another after the market news release, Frontier Airlines declaring BK. Is 4 or 5 this week?

Diggin Deeper said...

Well American ought to BK...They cancelled over a 1000 flights due to "preventative maintenance" problems...talk about some pissed off passengers....I'd rather drive and I've got a flight on Continental in a couple of weeks...ought to be a real cattle car...

alba said...

risky housing market apparently comes with a rise in crime. On my lovely gated street in Rocklin, my car, and a few others, were broken into this week, along with one stolen. My recession-proof reliable (paid-for) vehicle didn't have anything in it worth stealing.

We do have a breakout of homes going on the market in the neighborhood...many re agents around...hmmm.

Deflationary Jane said...

Sacramento has always had a high crime rate, especially vehicle thefts. We've been in the top 5 for the last decade.

Diggin Deeper said...

We've got a 26 year low in consumer confidence...credit card, auto loan, and other consumer debt delinqueincies also are rising fast...Two thirds of the economy is consumer dependent...California is the country's bellweather regarding the economy...so goes she, so goes the rest of the country...we are no doubt in the throes of a recession....plan accordingly and find something, other than the dollar, to cushion the fall...

neverborne said...

Yeah. We got woken up by a phone call at 5:00 this morning. It was my girlfriends phone calling my phone... except she was sleeping next to me.

Low and behold her car got broken into right in front of my house in carmichael, they jacked her phone and about 600 bucks worth of other stuff.

/sigh

Deflationary Jane said...

Never,

First thing I looked at with all my rentals was where do I park. I must have a place to park with 5ft of my bedroom window or it has to have a garage. Needless to say, I haven't lived in an apt complex in 15 yrs.

This brings up something I hadn't thought of recently. Before making an offer, check on how much your car ins will change with your ins company at various locations you are considering.