Sunday, April 13, 2008

Sacramento Real Estate Market Statistics - March 2008 - SAR

The Sacramento Association of Realtors (SAR) has published real estate market statistics for March 2008. The full report is here.

The median price of single-family homes in Sacramento County/West Sacramento fell 27.2% from last year.



Sacramento's median home price is now 35.1% off its August 2005 peak.



Here's a look at the median price since 2001.





March marked the second month in which sales exceeded prior year levels. Sales were up 4.6% versus March 2007.



The following graphs show the number of sales since 2001.



18 comments:

Diggin Deeper said...

Two months don't make a market and there's still alot of overhang yet to be added to inventory. But we're starting to see at least a flatter line on the price decline side and a blip on sales...Last year there was virtually no "selling season" as it was overwhelmed by foreclosures, negative sentiment, etc. Today it's all about price, low rates, and a buying public that's been onhold for nearly two years....I'm reserving judgement on this one until we get numbers for April and May...If they come in with continued improvement, the public might start waiving off any future declines...or we'll have just bounced like any other market would.

We'll see if what's going on today will hold tomorrow...

RMB said...

Dead Cat Bounce

AgentBubble said...

I'm not overly concerned with any of this either. The median $/SF still dropped from $149/SF to $144/SF from Feb 08 to Mar 08. Wake me when it starts increasing :-)

Deflationary Jane said...

For me what's telling is the Sacramento's median home price chart. You get the price spikes in Jan-March in 06 & 07. The spikes in 08 are looking remarkably like a Kansas horizon.

Deflationary Jane said...

Agent,

Apparently Wachovia is getting hit with losses from it's Alt-A products. These were people with great scores and some reserves who went stated income. Queue the next big wave of defaults.

AgentBubble said...

Yep, looking forward to the April numbers. Should quiet a lot of people praying for the spring rebound...

Patient Renter said...

Should quiet a lot of people praying for the spring rebound...

It certainly is an annual ritual.

smf said...

Agentbubble:

From your experience, how many people are now buying homes that can be called 'investors'.

I mean, there are still plenty of people who expect home prices to be much higher in 5 years.

If about 50% of buyers are still 'investors', what will happen when they realize that the price they paid is not going higher anytime soon?

Deflationary Jane said...

SMF,

I'm seeing people buying the drastically discounted properties and _if_ they close, they are becoming rentals. In Davis and Woodland, it's scary how many new rentals are coming on the market.

The good news is that these new "investors" will have already blown through their cash by the time the time the primo Alt A defaults come around. Couldn't happen to nicer people - I hope they choke on them >; )

AgentBubble said...

smf said...
Agentbubble:

From your experience, how many people are now buying homes that can be called 'investors'.


That's a tough question...Lots of variables. I know that at a price point of under $250K, there's quite a bit of competition. Multiple offers are coming in for the "nicer looking" properties.

I just did an informal random sample of 100 homes that sold in South Sac, Natomas, and Elk Grove under $250K in February. About 25% were to investors. I base "investor" on the tax record showing a different billing address than the address of the property.

Jacob said...

Looks like prices have flatlined in 08 lol. No spike at all for Jan-March. April (and onward) should continue to trend down.

It is still basic supply and demand. Too much supply, not enough demand, and half of the current demand is still from specuvestors. When they get tired of losing money there will be even more downward pressure.

Anyone seen any data for number of new foreclosures vs. number of total sales each month?

AgentBubble said...

Jacob said...

Anyone seen any data for number of new foreclosures vs. number of total sales each month?


Have you seen this?

http://sacrealstats.blogspot.com/2008/04/sac-county-sold-and-listed-stats.html

smf said...

So, I see there is still plenty of evidence of remaining problems.

The way I see it, the excess supply is still not being absorbed. And no real news yet of how many of these houses are being turned into 'investments'.

I have seen more movement in the lower priced areas. But these are areas that I would not touch.

And FYI, this bubble is really global. Now we are being blamed for the housing problems in other countries.

http://www.iht.com/articles/2008/04/13/business/housing.php?page=2

Deflationary Jane said...

I looked at a house out of curiousity on Sat.

MLS #: 80035396 4/2 today for 330K. Check out the purchase date. It's a S/S now. It is completely overpriced in a development with foreclsoure after foreclosure popping up. You can go right down the street and buy a 2150 sqft KB monster for 10 to 20% less.

What's interesting is that the seller was told to list at what was owed and work down over time. I don't know where they got the instructions or if a hardship packet has even been submitted. The agent at the OH had no idea.

So if those S/S are being told to start high and work down, that's going to hit the median price stats all summer.

Jacob said...

AB - Thanks, yea I saw that. I was curious though how many home are being taken back via floreclosure each month vs. how many REO homes are sold each month. To see if that inventory is still raising or starting to level off.

DJ - Seems like bad advice, so you keep lowering the price, but guess what, the prices that you could have sold for are also dropping, so you will always be too high.

Diggin Deeper said...

Gotta hate shortsales....it's just another way to delay an inevitable outcome plus I understand it can take months to get one to close. Why banks even consider them is a mystery

David said...

"From your experience, how many people are now buying homes that can be called 'investors'."

From what I've seen at work the only guys talking about actually buying are thinking of it as an investment and tend to be young. For example one guy is saying he will rent to his brother and then wants to use that house to buy another. Talking to them they really don't see the danger, they just see that the prices have come down a bunch and they think they will go right back up.
These are people who don't know anything much about economics. What they do know is that a bunch of people made a bunch of money in housing and that this might be their chance to do the same. And you can't deny the power of psychology and how feeling left out of the game the last few years can work on people. They see a bargain because they don't have the historical memory to realize that the prices were truly crazy.

smf said...

"What they do know is that a bunch of people made a bunch of money in housing..."

And soon they'll find out how many of them were actually able to KEEP the money they made.

How many dot.com millionaires disappeared?