Sacramento Land(ing)

Saturday, May 24, 2008

Sacramento Real Estate Market - May 2008 Water Cooler

Post off-topic links, observations, and stories about the Sacramento real estate market here. Please read the comment policy before posting.

74 comments:

Perfect Storm said...: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pmeBSWI9sF8

Here comes the second wave!; Saturday, May 03, 2008 4:50:00 PM
STOP ROSEVILLE CRIME said...: Great CNBC video showing update to mortgage mess. 2 million more to fall into default this year alone.; Saturday, May 03, 2008 10:53:00 PM
Unknown said...: The New York Fed Reserve data for Alt-A in Yolo county is quite interesting:

There are 1800 Alt-A ARMS. 900 have already reset, 100 will reset in 12-23 months, and 800 will reset in 24-48 months. That means most of the current un-reset Alt-A ARMS are 5/1 ARMs?

http://www.newyorkfed.org
/regional/subprime.html; Sunday, May 04, 2008 1:24:00 AM
Perfect Storm said...: According to a December 2006 Fitch Ratings report, almost 90 percent of people who got an Option ARM in 2006 used little or no documentation and more than 90 percent were suffering from negative amortization.

Industry insiders estimate at least 60 percent of Option ARM borrowers make only the minimum monthly payment. A Jan 22 issue of "Mortgage Strategist" a research note from investment bank UBS, estimated up to 80 percent pay the bare minimum.

"If you continue to make the minimum payments, a $600,000 loan can become a $750,000 loan within a couple of years," Fiserv's Dombrowski said. "You may have good credit, but now you're in a trap."

Were right on track for a 50% declune by 2009.; Sunday, May 04, 2008 8:26:00 AM
BFB said...: Here's an interesting observation:

I believe we've reached a record mls inventory for 95814/16/19 (downtown/midtown/East Sac). I've been tracking this area closely for two years. Last year, 95816 and -19 combined peaked at 186 active mls listings in late August. As of yesterday, the two combined zips have 195 active. 95814, at 66, is as high as last November (it was probably higher in late summer '07 but I don't have that number handy). Median asking price for the last 12 months appears to have peaked in late April this year, and of course median sale prices have steadily declined each month (with a few blips) during the whole two years.

This is all based on purely observational evidence (me looking at metrolist listings), so take it as such. Still, it's hard to deny the trend.; Sunday, May 04, 2008 2:41:00 PM
... said...: wont - thats very interesting but not very many alt a homes in Yolo - 225 per year? assuming all go into foreclosure, bid deal.

How many alt-a loans are 20-40% down? That just means a no doc self employed who put down equity - not that unusual, is it?; Sunday, May 04, 2008 6:03:00 PM
Jacob said...: why would you get an alt-a if you had 20-40% down? Wouldnt most people that were frugal enough to save the down payment want a 15 or 30 year fully amortized mortgage?; Sunday, May 04, 2008 7:00:00 PM
... said...: No, I'm self employed and my business cash flows and profits on different annual cycles.... so I sometimes have years that show poorly on a W2 or tax return, but the cash flow holds me until the next year. I've used no doc loans before.

Of course, then there's strippers, etc.; Sunday, May 04, 2008 7:43:00 PM
Perfect Storm said...: The New York Fed Reserve data for Alt-A in Yolo county is quite interesting:

Since were using Yolo County: Total number of both owner and non-owner combined equals.

Subprime 2,100

Alt-A 4,100

So according to that data Alt-A is twice as large as subprime, but according to Sippin no big deal. I guess subprime was just a minor headache, but as we can see Alt-A is twice as large as the subprime mess, but for some reason it should be discounted. All data points to Alt-A making the subprime mess a walk in the park. No the Alt-A situiation will be nightmare.; Sunday, May 04, 2008 9:02:00 PM
Perfect Storm said...: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pmeBSWI9sF8

Here comes the second wave!

Watch the video Alt-A will make the subprime mess seem like a vacation.

Average loan on Alt-A 89% LTV, Subprime 94% LTV, at time of loans, no almost all ALt-A's are negative equity.; Sunday, May 04, 2008 9:06:00 PM
Wadin' In said...: Perfect Storm,

Thank you for sharing this site. I find it amazing the worst may be yet to come. Actually, it is probable at this point.

Your point about Yolo County shows the magnitute.

Sippn,

This is a big deal.; Sunday, May 04, 2008 9:10:00 PM
Unknown said...: Perfect Storm,

You might have been looking at a different row. I am looking at the data for Yolo right now -- I got both excel files open in side-by-side comparison mode.

Here is what I got:

Alt-a:
total 3200, non-owner 700, owner 2500, no-doc 1900, purchase loans 1100, average LTV 80.86%, ARM 1800, average margin 2.9%

Subprime:
total 2000, non-owner 100, owner 1900, no-doc 800, purchase loans 800, average LTV 83.77%, ARM 1400, average margin 5.7%

what I see is that the flippers/investors are the ones who used alt-a the most, and they are heavily leveraged (non-purchase loans). also, there are substantially more liar (no-doc) alt-a's than liar subprimes.

the alt-a's LTV is close to the subprime LTV, so when the shit hits the fan (which it already did), the alt-a flippers/investors are as upside-down as the subprime borrowers, and nothing will stop them from walking away -- they are probably more likely to walk away since they are supposed to be rational investors.

so, in the first wave, you have the clueless buyers. now, here come the second wave of flippers/investors who got greedy at the wrong time.; Sunday, May 04, 2008 11:57:00 PM
Unknown said...: Sippn said: "wont - thats very interesting but not very many alt a homes in Yolo - 225 per year? assuming all go into foreclosure, bid deal.

How many alt-a loans are 20-40% down? That just means a no doc self employed who put down equity - not that unusual, is it?"

Sippn--

Alt-a generated in Yolo county:

2007: 500, 2006: 900, 2005: 800, 2004 and prior: 300.

The average alt-a LTV (loan to value ratio) for purchase loans is 89.06%, and for cash-out loans is 72.7%

so, to answer your question, not many alt-a borrowers put down 20-40%. in fact, the average alt-a home owner put down only 10%, which should by now be wiped out since everything dropped at least 10%. then, the rest non-purchase borrowers borrowed about 70% of their home value -- but there is likely to be a first purchase mortgage on top of that, which may very well put them in an even worse situation.; Monday, May 05, 2008 12:17:00 AM
... said...: 250 a year is the rate of alt a resets you were predicting in Yolo county (900 over 48 months). THAT is a drop in the bucket and what % of default rate of those?

Some alt-a's will actually not walk away and default on their loan...

Another alt-a type - new doc, 1st good job paying mid $100s, not enough supporting tax return data history for a prime loan - bingo - alt a.; Monday, May 05, 2008 6:27:00 AM
Perfect Storm said...: Your right won't I was including the total column, that puts Alt-A at 3,200 and subprime at 2,000.

Total Alt-A for 731,600 compared to 500,400 subprime for California. So Alt-A is 50% larger than subprime. Wow if subprime caused so many problems, what will Alt-A do being 50% larger? The answer is it will be a lot worse and Alt-A loans in Yolo account for about about 4% - 5% of total housing units. That puts one or maybe two Alt-A defaults on every block.; Monday, May 05, 2008 7:41:00 AM
Perfect Storm said...: Oh we all know deep down that most Alt-A was used by investors/flippers, who somehow checked the owner occupied box.; Monday, May 05, 2008 7:48:00 AM
... said...: You assume all the current REOS and short sales are subprime; Monday, May 05, 2008 8:04:00 AM
Deflationary Jane said...: The one thing I've learned in the past 3 years is that any time Sippin says "it's no big deal", I'd better be worried >; ); Monday, May 05, 2008 8:09:00 AM
... said...: Thanks, DJ, but I've only been here since late 2006 - in all names!; Monday, May 05, 2008 8:57:00 AM
Deflationary Jane said...: Ok 2 years... how time flies >; )

In other news-

http://www.sacbee.com/101/story/912579.html
SacBee: Sacramento County incomes dropped amid housing boom

'Several economists said the apparent good times created by the boom masked problems in local sectors not related to housing. And many local residents were fooled into feeling flush by the abundant cash coming in from home equity loans – the same, nonrecurring funds that would later turn into high-interest debt."; Monday, May 05, 2008 10:36:00 AM
patient renter said...: So about 1/3rd of Sac County loans are negative amortizing according to the Fed data? That can't bode well for the future.; Monday, May 05, 2008 10:56:00 AM
anoop said...: >>>
That can't bode well for the future.
>>>

Live for today, and today alone!

Be the grasshopper; the fed is about to bail all the grasshoppers and stomp on all the ants!!; Monday, May 05, 2008 1:01:00 PM
HOUSE2008 said...: Errr! I'm steaming mad. As much as I'd like to buy a New home, the prices that their asking for anything worth living in from Centex, Meritage, Morrison and D.R. Horton all are still asking high 300k for them! You know there used to be a time when one earned 6figures one could buy a nice house without putting your kids into factory workers to support the mortgage. Anybody here have a guess when these new home prices will actually come back to the traditional 3.0-3.5 times income ratio? Otherwise news of ALt -A resets will be my guiding light into the secondary market in buying a home. I've looked at at least a dozen foreclosed homes & MANY of them were horrible. I want a new home but 380k! 420K!. Makes me want to scream.

I may change my sig to House 2015 at this pace....; Monday, May 05, 2008 9:36:00 PM
evlunclbud said...: If you're searching midtown and downtown, remember to also use 95811, which replaced 95814 in many residential areas.; Monday, May 05, 2008 10:38:00 PM
anoop said...: house2008,

Yes new home prices are still up there in the stratosphere. Buy if you really want to own. Don't buy because "it's a good deal". That's not going to happen for many, many years. We are still in the hangover period where people think prices will recover. And the gummint's intervention with all the fancy schemes means that the excesses will take longer, way longer, to work themselves out of the system.

Definitely no major bust until after the elections. And after the elections there may be policy changes which help create a bubble in some other area.

At this point, builders are not looking to grow. The smartest ones (and the ones with deep pockets) will keep writing down inventory off their books while building very, very slowly.; Tuesday, May 06, 2008 9:43:00 AM
STOP ROSEVILLE CRIME said...: And since 2006 Sippin's been saying prices were fine and wouldn't go down. So in 2006 he said $450K was a good price and he's ridden that from 2006, to 2007 all the way to 2008, down to $250K, still saying the prices are good. So if you listened to him you lost at least $200K. Facts speak for themselves.; Wednesday, May 07, 2008 11:48:00 PM
anoop said...: Checkout this article
http://www.newsreview.com/sacramento/Content?oid=658004

The article ends with the following quote from a trade consultant
"The current administration doesn’t give a fuck. They’re just biding time till they leave office. For the middle class, we’re talking about a mild recession. For the working class and underclass, it’s a depression."

Couldn't be said better!; Thursday, May 08, 2008 10:58:00 AM
patient renter said...: This comment has been removed by the author.; Friday, May 09, 2008 12:42:00 PM
patient renter said...: Holy crap, Lereah capitulates:

http://www.newsweek.com/id/135724; Friday, May 09, 2008 12:44:00 PM
HousingRealist said...: You mention it being a "depression" for the working poor. This is what you call incentive to aspire to a better life. There is nothing that says it is a God given right to middle class or more. It takes work, education and much more. If one doesn't like their circumstances, they should take the steps to improve their plight. It is not the responsibility of the rest of us to have such entitlements in place that all people weather economic conditions in the same way.; Saturday, May 10, 2008 5:35:00 PM
anoop said...: >>>>
If one doesn't like their circumstances, they should take the steps to improve their plight.
>>>>

First off the quote about it being a depression for the working class was in the article itself.

I disagree with your assessment. As the economy gets messed up, the US tends more and more towards a third world economy. In a third world economy, the life you get depends on the family you're born into. There are few opportunities that will allow you change your fate and it becomes largely a matter of luck rather than effort.

Let's one works really hard all their life and saves up a couple of million. By the time they are 60 they feel good and are ready to retire. Now let's say this person has the misfortune of contracting a chronic illness whose treatment is not covered by his medical insurance. He goes bankrupt and now lives the rest of his life as a poor person (along with the sickness), with no chance to recover. This is largely because of the screwed-up health system.

Also, as the economy gets worse, it becomes harder to pull of a state of plight. You go to college accumulating so much debt for a degree that has no chance of getting you a job that will allow you to pay it back (except in the 1 in 100 circumstance where you land a dream job). See the cost of education vs salary growth over the last few years.

I'm not saying it's not possible. I'm just saying it's getting harder and harder. And this is something that the government and a few greedy people at the top of the food chain have chosen for this country.; Sunday, May 11, 2008 8:15:00 AM
waiting_for_the_fall said...: No one forces people to choose expensive colleges to get a degree.
I first went to Community college and took as much lower division classes as possible. Then I attended a State University for my upper division classes and received my degree.
When I graduated, I had zero debt.

The choices you make early in life determine your future earnings potential.; Sunday, May 11, 2008 11:07:00 AM
lexi said...: Touche Paranoid renter...!!
Our income is over 130K and we still are just making it. Money
just doesn't go nearly as far
as it used too... therefore more
people who used to be uppper or
middle class are getting squeezed
out. It's not all about your
choices solely.. it's about the
ecomomy also.; Sunday, May 11, 2008 12:04:00 PM
anoop said...: >>>>
The choices you make early in life determine your future earnings potential.
>>>>

Agreed 100%. What is being debated here is the ability to rise above middle class. It is very hard to do that today without having a godfather. There are too many qualified people vying for every open position, and as you well know salaries have been stagnant for the last n years while the cost of living has been steadily rising.

I quit my last job because I desperately needed a raise to maintain my lifestyle (which I consider to be very modest). I had a string of 3 years with 0-4% in raises. There are several folks still working there, and I don't know how they plan to make ends meet 10 or 15 years from now.

For the middle class the standard of living will continue to go down. The challenge is how to get "out of the noise" before you have to quit the field because of health or age. Otherwise, it's gonna be a pretty sucky retirement unless you have a lucky child (without luck, even if they want to they won't be able to help because they'll be struggling).; Sunday, May 11, 2008 7:14:00 PM
patient renter said...: President Bush, my hero? WTF? The dude is threatening to veto the ridiculous bailout legislation that passed the house last week.

Go Bush! (I think?); Monday, May 12, 2008 10:28:00 AM
Bobcat12 said...: This comment has been removed by the author.; Monday, May 12, 2008 10:47:00 AM
waiting_for_the_fall said...: If you stay at the same job forever, get used to the 3% raises or less, every year. The only way to get a decent bump in salary is to move to another job. That's why the average stay at jobs is 2 years, or less. People leave to get higher pay, even if they like the job they're at.

If you want to be in the middle class to upper middle class, you need to be willing to work long hours and learn new things. Most people think they are entitled to a good job, but don't understand that you need to work hard to get one.

The work ethic of young people today is amazing. They want the big pay, but don't want to give any effort to get it.

It's like they all want to win the lottery and that's their plan for retirement. Don't save, put $50 a week into lottery tickets instead of the bank.; Monday, May 12, 2008 1:04:00 PM
RV6Flyer said...: Bobcat and Waiting_for_the_Fall

There is one word both of you have hit upon--ENTITLEMENT

This poster positions himself to sound like he is not getting something he is entitled to.

The vast majority of middle and upper-middle class did not obtain their incomes or savings by sitting around and waiting for it to be given to them. There is no substitute for hard (smart) work. If the career you have chosen is not providing the lifestyle you desire, change the career. You say there are too many qualified persons vying for the same job, then find an industry which is no as saturated. It may involve more education and even a drop in salary, but if you are motivated, you will succeed.
Education is cheap and readably available--you don't need to go to a $40,000/year private university, although it will help in grad school. I have multiple degrees and not a dime of student loan debt. There were a few years when I only slept a few hours a week trying to attend classes full-time and work full-time, but in the long run I came out way ahead.

Periodic job changes are the fastest way to increasing salary--this can even be within the same organization.

Finally live below you means. Don't try to keep up with the guy next door. When slow times hit, you will not get hurt. Before long significant wealth starts to build.; Monday, May 12, 2008 2:37:00 PM
Steve V said...: I've read a few comments on here like "When are the price drops going to even out in Land Park, Downtown, Midtown, etc?"

Well it's all about supply & demand... how many cookie-cutter homes were built out by sprawl in the past few years? The supply of suburban commuter homes are endless. There's more scarcity in the central city... and with rising gas prices, the demand to live centrally might rise as well. Prices aren't going to drop as much in those areas.

I also don't get it when people say they're waiting for prices to fall 'back to 2001 prices' and such. They won't.
For one, you need to adjust 2001 prices for compounded inflation - which is about 25%. Additionally, real estate prices aren't as flexible as prices for most things. 30% drops are pretty extreme... and you only get drops like that when people are forced to sell. Most people who buy homes for the right reasons buy them because they will live there. In a down market, the average homeowner justs rides it out for a few years until they can sell at a price they can stomach.

I don't think you'll see prices drop much more - maybe 5% tops.; Tuesday, May 13, 2008 12:49:00 AM
RV6Flyer said...: I agree Steve:

The East Sac, Midtown, Land Park housing market is different. Houses below $500,000 are not staying on the market very long. I bought a house on 41st street recently, put an offer in the first week it was on the market. The house across the street went up for sale due to the death of the owner (she paid $5000 for it in the 40's) and a young doctor snapped it right up.
Most of my neighbors have lived in their homes for decades and have no reason to sell. Speaking for the east sac economy, it is strong. More hospital expansions, close to downtown, highly desirable location.
Yes, it is supply and demand. The supply is limited in two ways--no room to expand and low motivation to sell.
Price elasticity. Housing is not historically elastic. A violent drop will not be met with a perfect flat bottom and years of consolidation. We will peak in foreclosures next year and the relentless selling pressure will be turned off and some capitulation will occur.
I fear many will miss the bottom and never get into a house because they always think it will go lower.; Tuesday, May 13, 2008 11:24:00 AM
patient renter said...: I also don't get it when people say they're waiting for prices to fall 'back to 2001 prices' and such. They won't.

They won't because Sacramento is "special" or they won't because you've just returned from the future (how was your trip)?

Reality check buddy: prices HAVE fallen back to 2001 prices already in Florida. Do you think California is special? Sacramento? Don't hold your breath.

real estate prices aren't as flexible as prices for most things.

They seemed to be pretty flexible on the way up, no?

I don't think you'll see prices drop much more - maybe 5% tops.

And I bet two years ago you never imagined prices would fall 38% either? Don't let me stop you from making predictions though. You're bound to get one right eventually, eh?; Tuesday, May 13, 2008 12:38:00 PM
Jacob said...: Yea is there something special about 5%? I mean I have heard for years now that we have just 5% at most left to decline.

You say people buy homes to live in them? Where did you get an idea like that? That is so last century. Few people buying now are planning to live in them, still over half the sales are to investors.

I do agree that some areas will hold up much better than others. Any place close to jobs that has limited room for expansion will have more demand than supply.

But for the 99% of homes elsewhere, there is plenty of downward pressure to come.

And if I miss the bottom so what? Will we be at the bottom for 1 month then start appreciating 20% a year again? We will be at the bottom for a long time. And rising prices in everything from gas to food to energy will keep prices down.

I wont be touching anything until foreclosures peak and start declining for several months. Until that happens there is just too much risk for further price declines and more importantly for good neighborhoods to turn bad.; Tuesday, May 13, 2008 12:55:00 PM
Hamsilton said...: I find the argument that East Sac being so close to downtown will keep prices up due to people moving closer to work a little thin. Yes it is close to a lot of jobs and that is great and will help, but Sacramento lacks a real job center. Don't believe me? Take a drive around Sac County at rush hour and tell me if you see one clear route cars are moving, and see if it's clear sailing on the side of the freeway not being used by downtown commuters. I'd say less than half the people I know who live in Midtown/East Sac work downtown. Unfortunately, large numbers of people work all over the area, in Rancho, Arden area-American River, Folsom, Sunrise area, and then there is the retail, service, construction industry everywhere that's probably the largest employer in Sac.

It would be nice if Sac had a highly concentrated downtown business center like San Francisco, then functional public transit like BART would begin to make sense, but as it is, too many people going to too many sprawling burbs to make it feasible to run enough buses/trains to have reasonable wait times that would attract riders.; Tuesday, May 13, 2008 3:53:00 PM
Hamsilton said...: Oh also, the whole earlier "people aren't working hard enough" entitlement exchange ignores a lot of issues and is a pretty ignorant generalization. Americans work more hours than the Japanese now, so if we're generalizing about our workforce, how many hours should we be working?

Also, it's fine to put down the "younger generation" but who had free junior colleges and a much lower cost of living? Maybe the older generation only worked half as much and had twice the success.. since we're making stupid generalizations I thought I'd throw that out there.; Tuesday, May 13, 2008 4:03:00 PM
Steve V said...: Patient Renter, all either of us have are predictions, eh? Unless you have a time machine... I sure don't. However, history is a good time machine. Take a trip back to the early 90's Japan.

Their real estate bubble made ours look like bubble wrap. The land the Tokyo Imperial Palace sat on was reportedly valued as much as all the land in Florida.

Yet, in the end... Japan home prices dropped only 40%. Prices have already dropped nearly that much here - which is why I don't think they have much further to go (like the 60% some commenters have predicted here).

Don't get me wrong - there won't be a recovery soon. In fact, I think prices will stay flat for years to come & values will actually be eroded by inflation. That is why any continued speculation is moronic. Real estate is not a good investment right now. With inflation on the rise... think about putting your money in precious metals or commodities. Buy a home if your family needs one & you plan to live there... you get a nice tax deduction & it's nice to have a place your own, just like the good 'ol days.; Tuesday, May 13, 2008 5:36:00 PM
Unknown said...: 7% MoM decline from March to April.

But inventory is starting to dwindle. Wonder when those record number of March foreclosures are going to hit the market?

http://www.sacrealtor.org/documents/about/statistics/April2008.pdf; Tuesday, May 13, 2008 7:11:00 PM
RV6Flyer said...: This comment has been removed by the author.; Wednesday, May 14, 2008 8:38:00 AM
patient renter said...: You and paranoid_renter and patient_renter are all probably obamba voting state workers who would rather just bitch about your situation than do anything about it.

Whoa there, easy with the sweeping generalizations - you're very wrong on all accounts. It's hard to miss my weekly ranting against socialism and bailouts so I'm clearly not an Obama supporter :)

My situation is that I rent, and I very much intend to do something about it when the time is right. As for missing the bottom, it's not a concern. As I've posted many times before:

http://img408.imageshack.us/img408/7254/shillerqk7.png; Wednesday, May 14, 2008 11:19:00 AM
RV6Flyer said...: Sorry, Patient Renter, I tossed you in with Paranoid Renter. I was pissed off at the time and jumped to conclusions without thinking before posting.; Wednesday, May 14, 2008 12:00:00 PM
Hamsilton said...: James,
When did I bitch about my situation? Feel free to re-read my post and while you're at it, my screen name.
I think at this point in time it would be the boomers who would take the title of "sh!tiest generation" it is yet to be seen if post boomer generations could even begin to do a worse job overall. They probably will not have the abundant resources boomers had to even make for fair comparisons. In fact I'd have to say that the younger generation have much lower expectations then their entitled, lazy, state worker, high school drop out parents who feel entitled to decent jobs without having gone to college since back in the day you apparently didn't need a degree.

Yes, free junior colleges AND cheap books, AND a low cost of living that low wage jobs can support while in school do make a big difference, but Boomers tend to call anyone "entitled" who point these things out.

I do agree though that people who want to move on up out of the middle class shouldn't expect it to be handed to them, but then, I've never actually heard anybody say or post anything to that effect. Who are these "people" who are saying this? Is wanting more than a "cost of living" raise really enough to put a person in the "entitled" wannabe rich category? But it is true as stated earlier, generally all you need to do is switch jobs to get a substantial raise, seems to me high turnover would have much more of a negative effect on businesses than if they matched the going rate [assuming that the business has the means to pay], and from my experience, the most successful businesses I've seen are the ones who can keep their employees [or take talent from companies unwilling or unable to match benefits and pay.]; Wednesday, May 14, 2008 1:16:00 PM
Hamsilton said...: This comment has been removed by the author.; Wednesday, May 14, 2008 1:54:00 PM
Hamsilton said...: This comment has been removed by the author.; Wednesday, May 14, 2008 2:33:00 PM
Hamsilton said...: This comment has been removed by the author.; Wednesday, May 14, 2008 2:35:00 PM
RV6Flyer said...: So I just went to wisler land company and sacrentals.com and took all the recently rented homes in 95819 and 95818, then looked up the price of the house on Zillow. The formatting is a little messed up, but you can see it shows the address, monthly rent, home price, then price to annual rent ratio.

I did this because I saw this article showing this ratio for most major markets in the US. Sacramento in 2007 was 28.7 and has a 15 year average of 19.4. With this small sample size it is not statistically significant, but pretty good.

http://money.cnn.com/magazines/fortune/price_rent_ratios/

For all the renters out there, look at your home price and divide it by what you are paying in annual rent to see if you are getting a good deal or not--historically.

Address, Rent, Zillow Price Home Price/Annual Rent
260 36th Way, 1895, 458000 20.1407212
5228 G - Street, 1950, 375000 16.02564103
849 Bear Flag Way, 1565 305000 16.24068158
1114 Castro Way, 2395 349000 12.14335421
90 Aiken Way, 1795 379500 17.6183844
1635 50th Street, 1649 294000 14.85748939
90 43rd Street, 1925 413000 17.87878788
361 Messina Drive, 3279 849000 21.57670021
1470 52nd Street, 2795 610500 18.20214669
1950 5th Ave, 2195 528000 20.04555809
529 38th Street, 2695 591000 18.27458256
1536 41st Street, 2200 459000 17.38636364
1136 Teneighth, 2085 410000 16.38689049
5300 S Street, 1600 296000 15.41666667

Average price to rent 17.29956914

This is below the 15 year average for Sacramento. As a measure of value, this indicates this market is in line with historical norms.; Wednesday, May 14, 2008 3:29:00 PM
Deflationary Jane said...: James, I grabbed one at random,

90 Aiken Way.
Sold 03/16/2001: $223,000
$1795 for a tiny 2/1? Whistler an ask what it wants, whether they get it is a whole other issue.; Wednesday, May 14, 2008 4:35:00 PM
Deflationary Jane said...: 1114 Castro Way is a small 2/1 as well at 2,395. Anyone else see a problem with this?; Wednesday, May 14, 2008 4:37:00 PM
RV6Flyer said...: Jane, these are actual rentals rented at these prices. Check out pictures of the houses.

http://www.sacrentals.com/goinside/1114-castro/

http://www.sacrentals.com/goinside/90-aiken/; Wednesday, May 14, 2008 4:58:00 PM
Deflationary Jane said...: sorry James, I just don't get it but it sure does reassure me that getting out of Sacramento and CA as a whole is a damn good idea.; Wednesday, May 14, 2008 5:13:00 PM
RV6Flyer said...: I totally know what you mean, Jane. I would love to find an awesome new affordable area to live. Have tried everything from Kalispell, MT to NYC, but somehow California keeps drawing me back.
The prices people are paying for rent do seem crazy. Although, as long as I am stuck living in Sac, these are the neighborhoods I desire and will pay for. I am going to put an ad up on craigslist to see what I can get for my house; just as an experiment. Will post my results.; Wednesday, May 14, 2008 8:32:00 PM
patient renter said...: HappyinSF:

Tell me about the Streng!! :); Thursday, May 15, 2008 10:48:00 AM
Perfect Storm said...: 95819 zip has over six months inventory, and NOD activity is around six to eight a month, this area will decrease by 30% in the next twelve to eighteen months.

Were right on track for a 50% decline by 2009.; Sunday, May 18, 2008 12:09:00 AM
Unknown said...: looks like higher prices ahead to me. home prices were stagnant for a century according to that chart. this is a breakout, with a pause, and continue up.; Monday, May 19, 2008 8:19:00 AM
blackwomanblogging said...: As long as we're deflating stereotypes, can we deflate the "lazy state worker" stereotype?

My late mom and dad were state workers. Four of my six siblings and I are state workers. My parents weren't even high school graduates -- my father started picking cotton in the rural South during the Depression to support his widowed mom and worked until his late 70's, when he retired from his THIRD job after having retired from the state after 35 years. My mom used every opportunity provided to promote as high as she could with the state given her limited education, and she worked overtime every chance she got to support our family. Together they sent four of us to community and four-year colleges (Davis, Sac State (my sister who went to Sac State has dual degrees), Sac City, and Stanford)and they also sent me to law school and graduate school, with their hard work being the example for me. My parents' rallying cry was that everybody had to get up and go somewhere -- either work or school -- but you couldn't "lay up" in their house doing nothing. They despised laziness and made it clear to us kids that the world owed us nothing.

My siblings and I work hard, save our money, and live modest lifestyles. More often than not, it is us "state workers" in the family that other family folks working in private industry (who often look down on state workers) come to for money because sustained employment in private industry in Sacramento is an iffy proposition at best, especially after the decommissioning of the bases.

I left private industry for state work because I wanted a stable income and interesting work. I found both and I EARN my money. In fact, given my credentials and experience, I'm underpaid by market standards, but I don't b**ch and moan about it because I made this tradeoff willingly. If my work calls for me to work late or on weekends, I do it. If not, I don't. It's about getting the job done because I'm paid to do it, regardless of what the pay is.

So, please, enough with the "lazy state worker" stereotype. You never hear about "lazy county workers," "lazy U.C. workers" or "lazy city workers."; Monday, May 19, 2008 1:42:00 PM
patient renter said...: No stereotype applies to everyone, though in this case, the stereotype exists for a reason.

I can say that at this very moment, sitting behind me about 10 feet away is a state worker playing Spider Solitaire on a fairly new 21" flat panel monitor. No comments beyond that.; Monday, May 19, 2008 2:46:00 PM
RV6Flyer said...: And there are some seriously lazy workers in the private sector who slide by and do as little as possible.
I will say, the professionals in government employment--attorneys, engineers, ect--do seem to actually care about their work and put the effort in. I think the generalization comes from our interaction with DMV, postal, hoards of overweight office types wearing their badges walking around downtown at lunch (feeding) hour, and stories of supervisors complaining about a bad employee and promoting them out of their department because they can't fire them.
Yes, there are always exceptions to the rule.; Wednesday, May 21, 2008 9:49:00 AM
RV6Flyer said...: "95819 zip has over six months inventory, and NOD activity is around six to eight a month, this area will decrease by 30% in the next twelve to eighteen months."

Perfect Storm:

With rents this high, how can you justify a 30% price drop? There is more to it than inventory, which is quickly burning off. Take a look around the Fab 40's, most everything is going pending sale. The conforming loan limit is now $590,000 in Sac, this will help high-end home sales as well.
Is 6 months of inventory significantly out of norm for this area? What statistical data can you provide?
What about the three L's of real estate?
I value your opinion, but what else can you provide to help us make informed decisions?; Wednesday, May 21, 2008 1:03:00 PM
norcaljeff said...: account manager....put your money where you mouth is and start buying.

james...let's not start the private v. public sector debate once again. Especially sincce most of the private sector doesn't have job security, automatic pay raises not to mention pensions, which are financed by tax payers in the private sector. They shouldn't have better pay or benefits than the free market.; Saturday, May 24, 2008 3:19:00 PM
norcaljeff said...: So much for the April bounce - http://tinyurl.com/3roknn; Saturday, May 24, 2008 3:22:00 PM
Josh said...: Just some food for thought from my area, which is Manteca.

Every house we have looked at has received several offers, most which are over asking price. One house last week got 42 offers, sold for 40K over list.

On metrolist with my search criteria, which is 4bd 250k-300k, there are 59 homes.

29 are sale pending
14 short sales

Housing at least in this area is almost a sellers market.; Sunday, May 25, 2008 9:06:00 AM
Perfect Storm said...: Luca,

I hope this town attracts real jobs soon or I feel you will be a very busy landlord, not that its a bad thing, but it does take a certian breed.; Monday, May 26, 2008 9:59:00 AM
patient renter said...: You guys catch the news on the NAR settlement? The one tool that the NAR really had that it could use to try and block competition was the MLS. Now with this lawsuit and settlement, this will be no more.; Wednesday, May 28, 2008 10:41:00 AM
norcaljeff said...: The housing slump is downsizing San Diego County's home-building industry, as many of the large firms that helped create suburban communities scale back or close local operations.

Companies that sold tens of thousands of homes during the recent housing boom are struggling to stay afloat until the downturn ends. Some of those that leave probably won't return.

“Banks have taken flight and left our industry,” Pattinson said. “The economics of housing in San Diego and California no longer work. The houses now that are selling are the foreclosures that have been taken back. We are selling assets to survive and doing what we can to keep our businesses going.”

Statewide, 2008 could be the slowest year for home construction since at least the early 1950s, said John Frith, spokesman for the California Building Industry Association.

Wow, now some honesty for a change from the building industry.

Gee, I thought SD was yet another place where prices NEVER go down. Not even the builders want to stick around.

http://tinyurl.com/5nvk3z; Wednesday, May 28, 2008 11:41:00 PM
STOP ROSEVILLE CRIME said...: Josh, you sound like the realtors of 2005. Tired, old story. Feel free to buy, and be repo'd in a few years as prices plummet lower.; Thursday, May 29, 2008 7:57:00 PM
helloooo said...: http://sacramento.bizjournals.com/sacramento/stories/2008/06/02/story1.html?b=1212379200^1643517&page=1; Friday, May 30, 2008 8:36:00 AM

Saturday, May 24, 2008

Sacramento Real Estate Market - May 2008 Water Cooler

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