Friday, November 07, 2008

SRRI: Sacramento Region to Lose 13,000 Jobs by September 2009

From the Sacramento Business Journal:

The Sacramento region can expect an estimated net loss of 13,000 jobs by September 2009 as the hard-hit housing market, credit crunch and low consumer confidence continue to pound the region’s economy. Analysts with the Sacramento Regional Research Institute expect the six-county region, which has already seen a net annual loss of 2,425 jobs for the year ended in September, to lose an additional 1.4 percent from October through next September, according to a report [pdf] released today...“Things have only gotten worse, and that means we expect it to get even worse in the next 12 months,” said Suzanne O’Keefe, associate professor for the department of economics at California State University Sacramento.
The six-county region is expected to suffer a 2 percent year-over-year loss of jobs in first-quarter 2009. By comparison, the early 1990s, at its worst point, saw a 2.1 percent year-over-year loss of jobs.
So far, SRRI's predictions have been overly optimistic.

From the Sacramento Bee:
The annual real estate forecast season is on, and Sacramento-area home builders caught a fresh earful of unfriendly predictions Thursday. The consensus of economists, consultants and home-building executives regarding 2009 is the same as they all predicted in November 2007: This numbing housing slump has a long way yet to run.
Folsom building industry tracker Greg Paquin had these predictions: Builders will sell 5,300 homes this year in El Dorado, Placer, Sacramento, Sutter, Yolo and Yuba counties and perhaps 10 percent more next year. That's if the economy improves in the second half....New home prices – averaging $374,000 across the region – are about as low as they can go. He said, "We feel we're getting real close to the bottom in the Sacramento market."
This year's North State Building Industry Association forecast seemed to find builders bleaker than ever about immediate prospects. Bank repos are killing sales, and the economy is worsening. Hopes are largely pinned now on a distant future when inevitable population growth again stirs demand for what they build.
From News10:
Registrar of Voters Austin Erdman said he noticed a trend that would have an impact on the election. "It actually happened in the February election, when we got 37 tubs of information (voter guides) back from voters. We found the houses are empty," said Erdman. The number of registered voters in San Joaquin County is 268,476. In 2004, it was 276,939.
From the Sacramento Bee:
The day after Barack Obama was elected president, at least 33 more bankruptcies were filed in Sacramento. Foreclosures continued their assault on the region's housing market...[F]or all of Obama's campaign talk about using the power of the government to revive the economy, it's a near certainty that he'll be unable to reverse the downturn quickly.
What's clear is that the Sacramento economy won't improve meaningfully until the real estate market recovers. Obama has talked about taking steps to help homeowners, including a 90-day foreclosure moratorium and legislation to give bankruptcy judges the right to reduce the amount a debtor owes on his house.

On Wednesday, Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger proposed a similar 90-day moratorium, plus a loan-modification program that would ensure that mortgage payments don't consume more than 38 percent of homeowners' incomes.


Jacob said...

New home prices – averaging $374,000 across the region – are about as low as they can go

Well, if they are as low as they can go, I better rush out and buy something...

So are we using averages now instead of medians? And even at 375k I bet it was a lot lower in 2000. So there is plenty of room to fall.

Then add those 13k job losses...

Deflationary Jane said...

Another Friday, another bottom call .... **yawn**

Dave said...

Housing can be worth zero in the right circumstances, otherwise you would never see ghost towns. Funny how we can never accept that things change. Others have said it before but the bottom will likely be when the average price reaches 3 times average income. And is that average offer price or average sale price.