Tuesday, December 02, 2008

'It's sort of a Hail Mary pass'

From Inman News:

In Sacramento, Calif., the price per square foot fell 31.9 percent from September 2007 to September 2007, according to Radar Logic.
From the Sacramento Bee:
Is the foreclosure phenomenon at last beginning to peak in California? Home Front is hearing rumblings that October saw a "meaningful decline" in various foreclosure filings for the first time in two years. The familiar industry trackers – MDA DataQuick, ForeclosureRadar and Foreclosures.com – all acknowledge the change...What does it mean? It's still early to speculate whether this might be the beginning of the end.
...
"What we have seen over the last 60 days is a lot of announcements around foreclosure moratoriums and loan modification programs," said [Foreclosure Radar's Sean] O'Toole. He also cited Senate Bill 1137, which makes lenders try harder to talk with California borrowers before foreclosing. That legislation prompted a noticeable slowdown in notices of default as early as September.
...
[A]n abundance of new loan modifications could be pushing the foreclosure problem out three to five years. "It's sort of like, 'let's put these people all in teaser rates and hope it goes away.' It's sort of a Hail Mary pass," he said.
From the Sacramento Bee:
Property owners -- facing rough economic times and a prolonged housing slump -- have been flooding area assessors' offices with appeals in the hope of getting their tax bills lowered. Monday was the final day for property owners to appeal the assessed value used to calculate this year's property tax bills, and preliminary estimates project near-record numbers of appeals. Sacramento County officials are expecting twice as many appeals as last year.
...
Sacramento County reduced the assessed value on as many as 30 percent of residential units this year in the wake of the housing slump. The reductions translate to a loss of about $65 million in property tax revenue countywide, officials said.
From the Sacramento Business Journal:
[Roseville-based] real estate developer Kobra Properties — which owns more than 80 restaurants, corporate centers and other commercial properties mostly in Northern California — has filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy reorganization in Sacramento, citing a worsening economic recession, depressed real estate market and a “tumultuous” credit industry.
From the Sacramento Bee:
These are terrible times for the auto industry, and the impact shows up at places such as the Elk Grove Auto Mall. Sales are down, staffing is down, and the loss of two dealerships hurts the survivors. "It doesn't help the image of the auto mall to have two tenants gone," said David Johnson, general sales manager at Elk Grove Buick Pontiac GMC. "It doesn't help with consumer confidence." Johnson has cut his sales staff in half, eliminating six jobs.
...
The numbers pay perverse tribute to Californians' other great love, real estate. Before the housing market crashed, 30 percent of California's new cars were bought with home-equity loans, according to CNW. That was triple the U.S. average. Now only 16 percent of California cars are purchased with home equity. "When the housing bubble burst … that just hammered car sales," [analyst Art] Spinella said.
From the Sacramento Bee:
[Howard] Roth [chief economist at the California Department of Finance] and economist Jeff Michael, of the University of the Pacific, said it's likely that California entered the recession sometime sooner than the rest of the country. It's possible that places like Sacramento, where the housing market seems to be stabilizing, could come out of it earlier, as well.
From the Sacramento Bee:
The family of Teresa Martinez, a preschool teacher in Stockton, is living proof of how the nation's economic storm is uprooting immigrants with family ties on both sides of the U.S.-Mexico border. While it's unclear if anecdotal evidence about Mexicans leaving the United States will eventually add up to a mass exodus, it is clear that those on the move aren't necessarily in this country illegally.

Martinez's two brothers are both legal U.S. residents who earned a good living, she said, working in trucking and construction during healthier economic times in California's Central Valley. About a year ago, when work dried up, both men decided to ride out the U.S. downturn south of the border, taking refuge in a cheaper, family-owned home in Mexico's northern Sonora state.
From the Stockton Record:
[Terry Hull Sr., Property Management Experts in Stockton]: Foreclosures have drastically impacted the economy of Stockton and the entire country. Sales prices have continued to go lower. However, shrewd investors are buying houses at these very low prices. Currently, there are too many rentals available, and it takes longer to find good tenants...I believe that we are beginning to see an overabundance of rental units, and eventually the vacancy factor will increase and rents may go lower.
From the Stockton Record:
Neighborhoods pummeled by the subprime mortgage debacle will start seeing a few new folks moving into foreclosed homes with help from federal funding on its way to San Joaquin County. On Tuesday, the Board of Supervisors approved a plan that would spread about $9 million in targeted areas across the county, primarily to snap up foreclosed properties, refurbish them and flip them to home buyers earning just about the median income.
...
"We think it will have a positive effect, (but) there are larger market forces at work," said Steve Baker, a project specialist at the city's Community Development Department.
From the Stockton Record:
A $10,000 tax credit would provide just enough incentive to push fence sitters to become home buyers, according to Hanley Wood Market Intelligence, a real estate data and consulting firm.
...
Yeah, but ... should we be building more new homes with so many existing homes on the market? Should we be handing out government tax credits for new-home buyers when thousands of California families are facing foreclosure? With virtually every segment of the economy struggling, how do we decide who gets help, who doesn't and how much?
...
Whatever the form and eventual cost of an economic stimulus plan, it cannot cover everything. Some segments will be left out. A higher priority should be given to keeping families in their homes and not on building and selling new homes.

8 comments:

Jacob said...

A $10,000 tax credit would provide just enough incentive to push fence sitters to become home buyers, according to Hanley Wood Market Intelligence, a real estate data and consulting firm.

How about a $10k reduction in the price of the home or fees and commissions instead?

I doubt that would make much difference anyway. Homes are more affordable now than a few years ago, but now people are worried about having a job and being able to afford food for their family.

"Owning" a home is a "want" not a "need" and for the next couple years people will be focussing on what they need.

And the business/job loss death spiral still has a ways to go. This holiday season will be the final nail in the coffin of a lot of companies, and a lot of jobs will go along with them.

Purely anecdotal but I went shopping at the Galleria in Roseville on black friday, around 1pm and had no trouble parking at all. The mall had a lot of shoppers but none of the shops I went to had more than 5 or see lookeyloos.

patient renter said...

A $10,000 tax credit would provide just enough incentive to push fence sitters to become home buyers

Not this fence sitter. What's 10k, a month's worth of lost equity?

With virtually every segment of the economy struggling, how do we decide who gets help, who doesn't and how much?

The only sure way to not screw one taxpayer is to not try and "help" another.

A higher priority should be given to keeping families in their homes

And the ass-backwards idea that someone who is underwater on "their" home is an "owner" and deserves some sort of help for this "ownership" carries on...

Diggin Deeper said...

Why not a $10,000 tax credit? Everbody else is standing in line waiting for the govt to add to our financial problems...and by the looks of it, there's no shortage of "wet ink" funds available.

Now I'm hearing noises about bringing on a 100 year treasury bond...That's got to be the epitomy of our "pass the baton" politics we've become accustom to over the years. Maybe we can translate those into 100 year mortgages...and then homes would affordable to any warm body that has a job.

No depression in sight, just a worthless dollar appearing on the horizon...

Wadin' In said...

"Is the foreclosure phenomenon at last beginning to peak in California?"

Are you kidding me. I just checked out Foreclosures.com and all the pent up, legislatively delayed foreclosures are now showing up. 400% jump over last month. Log jamb is breaking....

Jacob said...

Maybe we can translate those into 100 year mortgages

It's called renting, and as a bonus you don't have to pay the taxes or upkeep on the home, and can move pretty much whenever you want and don't have to sell for a loss.

Diggin Deeper said...

It's a self defeating "negative feedback loop." RE mortgage market creates toxic derivatives that are passed off as AAA investment grade products. Those products are leveraged to the hilt, and are offloaded on to an unsuspecting world. They implode, creating mass deleveraging that sucks up jobs, credit, industries, thereby creating more job losses, industry breakdowns, bankruptcies, 201K's, foreclosures etc. If the cycle doesn't break soon, loss of credibility starts to look like a lack of solvency, and then things get even more interesting.

Some have proposed that with just over $11 Trillion in total US mortgages, (Bloomberg estimates close to $8 Trillion in guarantees, bailouts, loaned money, swaps, 4-letter programs etc.) the feds could have added another $3 Trillion and just bought up and refigured all mortgages in the country. You'd at least have a chance at putting a floor under the non-performing loans which are contributing to the deleveraging cycle.

patient renter said...

Wow, anyone else see the news that the Treasury is going to try and force mortgage rates down, even lower!?

It's humorous and frustrating to watch these clowns spin their wheels doing everything they can to try and prop up the market. Are they really so stupid as to not know that it's pointless?

No amount of cheap financing makes overpriced homes any less overpriced. Make it 0%, they're still overpriced.

Diggin Deeper said...

PR

No doubt...prices will be the driver...

"It's humorous and frustrating to watch these clowns spin their wheels doing everything they can to try and prop up the market."

It's called "panic". Never would have thought the long bonds would yield at 50 years lows. I've still got a short in mind but just can't fight the tape right now. Whatever they're doing you can bet it is being artificially manipulated. When that fails, and it will, market fundamentals will take over.