Tuesday, January 13, 2009

3 Years of Sacramento Land(ing)

Thank you readers, commenters, and fellow bloggers for three very interesting years!

With the confession booth in demand and the mainstream media sounding more like bloggers, perhaps it's time to wind things down around here. (Hey, everyone is doing it.)

53 comments:

Made Decision too Quickly said...

No! Please don't!

I started following this blog about a month before moving to Sacto in 2006. Because of it, I didn't buy a house when I moved. I credit it with saving me about $200,000-- about 2/3 of my assets. I still follow is obsessively. Please don't stop!

campbeln said...

Keep it up! I love the news roundups for SacTown! I'm a SacTown boy currently living in Australia looking to buy into the market when it makes sense again. Your blog is amongst my favorites because it's so local!

Cn

sean said...

Please keep it up! I check this blog multiple times a day. As a potential home buyer in Sacramento, this blog and the commenters are huge resources and they keep me in check from doing anything stupid

Chica said...

Here Here! Don't stop. This blog is simply the best in scope. From local specific issues to the larger world. The wonderful links down the side......Where would I turn?

anon1137 said...

I'll admit the Sac RE market has gotten much less exciting now that a lot of the gas is out of the bubble, and we're probably in for a long, slow, boring decline. But I would really miss the banter on this blog (except the investor banter).

Buying Time said...

Lander for the past three years you have provided a public service with which few can compare. Your blog and all the links to other resources have saved me and countless others from financial self-destruction.

I can't thank you enough. But I certainly understand your decision. I wish you all the best on all your future endeavors.

Deflationary Jane said...

Lander,

I think you are the bomb but I'm biased!

If you need to focus on other things then god speed and take with you my very, very best of wishes.

But I don't think this is over at all as there is plenty of downside risk remaining. For an example, look at the disaster that is the SacBee's blog? It's subtle but the cheerleading is still there and the 'man' is just waiting for voices like yours to still so they can go back to work on us.

And as we all know, this bubble isn't over until PS and I jump in and that sure isn't happening yet >; )

Buying Time said...

I dunno DJ, I am starting to think this is the ultimate "bottom" metric. The rate at which housing bubble bloggers are moving on to other things. It certainly seems more reliable than all the RE industry pundits.

queerbychoice said...

I've been reading this blog since 2006, and now my home-buying has been postponed because I just got laid off on Monday. But despite being out of the market for a while, I'd hate to see this blog go under. Please stick around!

Jacob said...

Yea, as the blogs start to shut down I guess that is a good indicator that the bottom is approaching.

And yea, I need some way to find out when PS and DJ buy so I know it is time to get serious.

But we still have a ways to go. You should keep the blog going until there is at least one good sign that the bottom is coming. Prices level off, foreclosures start to decine, job losses start to decline etc.

Best wishes with whatever you do next. This blog was the first place that made me feel like I wasn't crazy for not wanting to buy an overpriced house.

Deflationary Jane said...

Crispy (who I'm a fangrrl of) moving on isn't the same as say, Ben Jones moving on.

Too much still to shake out with job losses, revenue declines, deflation picking up, etc. Plus we have some neighborhoods that are about to change drastically with outmigration and crime demographic 'adjustments'.

I was here in 93 and what we have now is nothing like that bottom. That was rose petals and baby pink ponies in comparision to what's ailing the region now.

SpinThis said...

First post from a silent reader. I understand if the time commitment requires you to hang up your hat, but I really hope you don't! Your blog, along with Patrick K's links, have prevented me from buying again and losing hundreds of thousands of dollars. How can I possibly thank you enough?!?

But we have finally reached a time where you have been proven correct. This is your time to shine! I say give it one more year of documenting the economic collapse and the continued fall in housing prices. Just 2009, then you're off the hook.

Because now, with prices back to 2002, I'm teetering again on buying. If you stop this blog too soon, countless idiots like me may very well buy too early. Please don't let that happen!

dammit said...

Hey,

I've followed this blog for about two years. I've never posted, so I guess Im not the best community member but I would like to see the blog keep going. This blog stopped me from buying a house last year and I'm glad it did because I saved a lot of money.

I don't think we are at the bottom yet. Houses are still not affordable for middle income people in Sacramento. Unemployment is rising, businesses are closing, the economy is in the shitter, we aren't at the bottom yet.

Keep it going.. Maybe you can get others involved to make the job easier.

patient renter said...

Ahhh Lander. I feared this day.

One thing I've been curious about - why you don't join in the editorializing/commenting? I seem to vaguely remember a bit more of this from you in the early days, but not much at all for a long time.

the cheerleading is still there and the 'man' is just waiting for voices like yours to still so they can go back to work on us.

DJ is right.

I am starting to think this is the ultimate "bottom" metric

I don't think so. We're certainly closer to the bottom than ever but there are many other things that historically must occur before we hit bottom. We're just not there yet.

To the original premise of this blog, will we have a hard or "soft" landing - we all know the answer now. But this blog is still has a lot value for myself and obviously others as well. Just look at how many RSS readers there are - over 300.

Deflationary Jane said...

Jacob,

I will give you one big hint: I had hoped that maybe one day prices would be low enough to buy around Davis because of work though I still loath the place. Now I'm only looking at the central city 95814/95816 if I jump in down the road. Nothing in Yolo or Solano are even a consideration anymore.

patient renter said...

For the record - this blog was the first I discovered about this crazy housing thing that I felt wasn't quite right, but didn't know for sure that it wasn't.

My wife (then fiancee) and I were seriously considering abandoning CA to get away from the housing insanity and just find a nice normal place where we could raise a family. This was a stressful thing though - all of our family is here. Could we really leave them and move away just for the sake of being able to afford a decent home? The situation was stressful. But the market was insane.

I still remember the day I discovered this blog and this thing called the "housing bubble". It was truly like seeing the light. Since then I've learned so much about so many things. I'm very greatful to Lander and all of the other bloggers who did their part to introduce me to so many great things.

Deflationary Jane said...

Case in point: California Foreclosure Activity Picks up Again
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2009/01/california-foreclosure-activity-picks.html

'“The effort by the California State Legislature to reduce foreclosures has now clearly failed,” said Sean O’Toole, founder of ForeclosureRadar. “While State Senate Bill 1137 was well intentioned, forcing lenders to talk to homeowners won’t fix this problem.'

As we have talked about so many times -another 'money shot' >; )

Diggin Deeper said...

Lander,

All I can say is, this forum has made a difference to many who've come with an open mind, and are now able to make informed decisions above all the noise. Doesn't get any better than that.

It would be shame not to see this blog through to the bottom, but I understand it takes a lot time to keep it interesting...

Thanks!

Husmanen said...

I have to add myself to the minions that have been saved from the bubble by this site. I cannot thank you enough.

The bubble has not totally deflated and the landing has been hard. We are in for some very interesting times and conversations in 2009.

I wish you the best and selfishly hope you continue for another year.

Diggin Deeper said...

and DJ...did you expect anything more?? If we'd get the state and feds out of the way, the market would ferret out all the excess and we'd soon get a chance to find something that used to resemble "normal"

Jacob said...

You have people that can't afford their homes and no amount of workouts are going to help.

If people cannot manage their finances they will be right back in the same spot. For all the workouts that have happened half end up right back in foreclosure.

And if you start making the deals too good then the 95% of people paying their mortgages on time can just default to get in on the party.

And look at all the housing shows on TV. We won't be at a bottom until those start to drop off the air.

Y said...

First time posting, long time reader.

I've been reading your blog for a good 2 years. I would like to wish you best of luck in your future endeavor. You have done a great service to all your readers and have helped all of us from making big financial mistakes. If it was not for this blog, I would have bought in 06.

Thank you for all your time and the knowledge that you have empower us with.

Thanks,

Diggin Deeper said...

Could someone please help?...this nefarious character, J6B (or some variation), who for all I know is just another nemesis in one of the James Bond movies, completely got by me...

Please don't shut this down until someone reveals his/her true identity to this pour soul...

Campy said...

Please don't quit! I have checked your blog religiously for the last 2 years as my wife and I are contemplating a move to the Sacramento area. There is no better comprehensive source for Sac real estate info on the web. You hard work is greatly appreciated!

mopar777 said...

By all means keep this blog going! We need voices telling us the true dimensions of this economic rout as it moves out onto the street. The local media is biased and fighting for it's life in this age of free and unbridled communication between interested parties. In other words when I skim through a boring, predictable, buzz word laden PC article from the Bee and rush to the comments posted below - I know I'm not the only one doing it!

Besides the real estate crash is not over yet. The well to do neighborhoods like Folsom have a long way to fall and this will take time, but it will happen. This blog will serve readers and buyers well into the future, as they read stories about deals and happenings in parts of town that are worth living in and that will recover someday. Elk Grove and Natomas will be a squatter laden/section 8 hell
in the not too distant future.

SpinThis said...

DD - J6P = Joe Six Pack.
Is that the reference to which you refer?!?

Giacomo said...

Whatever your decision, thank you for your hard work, and a job well done.

In any case, retiring bloggers are not a sign of any bottom, as much as some might like to think so... it just means that the battle to expose the truth about the bubble is largely won, and those who have been at the front lines are ready for a break.

Buying Time said...

"In any case, retiring bloggers are not a sign of any bottom."

I know, but I was hoping to goad Lander into sticking around by making him the subject of a bottom calling. So far it doesn't seem to be working.

luca said...

please don't quit I read this every week- Put some google ad sense on to make it worth your time

luca said...

When the sacramento real estate market lands firmly it would be a good time to finish the 'landing' blog off. Stopping now would be like stopping half way through a good movie. ,,.,..,., we need to stay till the conclusion of the downtrend in RE in Sacramento has come.

There is so much more juicy meat to come lander!

DON'T GO PLEASE!

PeonInChief said...

We shall miss you and, although I read you regularly, I understand wanting to move on and do something else. Good luck!

Giacomo said...

I know I'm spending less time monitoring the various blogs; it seems like it's down to gloating, and some feeble bottom-calling by REAs ('though most of these seemed to have bugged out a few months ago).

Perhaps the focus, even among "doomers," is now to focus on staying employed, preserving capital, and getting through 2009 intact.

Deflationary Jane said...

Gia,

I think you are correct and that's where I am : protect cash in case of emergency, stay employed, and get through this year.

That said, I think my neighbor is about to go TU on a prime rental property in Davis. Sent my query to BT as she had foreclosure radar at one point.

And the person DD was referring to, i think, is R6Vflyer. Did i get that right Diggin?

Sold in '05 said...

Happy Anniversary!!!

Thank you for all of your work. This site has truly been the bleeding edge of accurate information on our local real estate market. Over time it has morphed from a narrowly focused area for misfit toys to gather and collectively scratch our heads over what we felt were ludicrous market behaviors into a much broader and extremely valuable tool for the examination of our ongoing economic tsunami. The observations, articles, linked sites and group commentary have allowed many of us to see in advance and make personal adjustments for what the greatest minds in government and high finance could not even admit to being a remote possibility on your site’s previous anniversary.

Through this site we have had ring side seats as the California housing market collapsed and what had been local waves, moved outward and reverberated from coast to coast. Those same waves have now been amplified by the malfeasance of Wall Street, harmonized by the incompetence of governments and multiplied by the massive inertia of a collapsing worldwide economy. These waves are now returning home to Sacramento and the impact here locally will certainly be significant. The show is just getting started.

Let us off the hook, shout “April Fools!” and keep up the great work.

-CD

Diggin Deeper said...

DJ...I think Joe Six Pack fits right in...J6P must be the texting version, something that I swore I'd never get into...have a tough enough time with my own language...but thanks Spin This...it's been perplexing ever since I first saw it....

RV6Flyer said...

"And the person DD was referring to, i think, is R6Vflyer. Did i get that right Diggin?"

You talking about me? What did I do?

Deflationary Jane said...

Nahh DD was referring to J6P but I thought that was too obvious. I think j6P will be fine, stressed but fine. It's Joe Cheap Chardony you need to watch out for.

You're clear for take off, please do not buzz the tower >; )

sacramentia said...

DJ - Who is Joe Cheap Chardony? Is that the J6P equivalent of the Serrano types?

RV6Flyer said...

J6P don't know the difference--c'est la vie

You are right, those accustomed to slightly finer things in life will have a hard time adjusting.

Lander, thanks allowing all to post their minds, even the evil bankers. Good luck in whatever lies ahead!

Max said...

If this is it, take care and thanks for all the fish! Please leave the blog up and publicly accessible for the historical record. There will be books written about this someday.

Rich said...

I echo the "Thanks, and we'd love for you to stay, but understand if you don't" comments.

Um, anyone know when bubbletracking went dark? And is anyone invited?

AQIUS5 said...

ground control to major tom

ground control to major tom

take your protein pills

and put your

helmet

on

subprimetax said...

We are back into home ownership after the cost of renting is finally close to the price of owning. Have enjoyed your blog for three years while sitting on the fence. We are finally getting Thanks for your time and dedication to your site. You were a service to us all. Good luck.

Husmanen said...

Rich... If you are referring to Bubble Market Inventory Tracker here is a discussion about it:

http://piggington.com/bmit

apson123 said...

I think I've been reading this blog since March of 2006. You and Ben at the big blog have saved me hundreds of thousands of dollars and decades of heartache. I cannot thank you enough.

Lander said...

Thank you all for the kind words.

I'm too much of an addict to quit this thing cold turkey. However, the frequent news posts will be coming to an end in the near future. For the last six months or so I've had a significant increase in responsibilities with some volunteer work I'm involved with, such that I don't believe I can continue this blog in the current format.

patient renter said...

I'm too much of an addict to quit this thing cold turkey.

Ahh thank goodness :)

But seriously, we understand personal responsibilities trump blogging, though any blogging you care to do is welcome and looked forward to. If nothing else, some ongoing open thread/water cooler posts will be good to have.

Deflationary Jane said...

Lander, what about a co-blogger?
Someone with a even temperment and neutral outlook? (not me in other words)

You can pass the opinion pieces on over here once a month for fun >; )

comfirmation word: derthbut LOL!

paranoid renter said...

Thanks for the blog Lander. Because of this I ended up not buying a house in 2004 (I put a deposit down but backed out).

norcaljeff said...

I could tell something was up because postings were more and more infrequent of late. Slowing your rate of participation is cool, you could just post more quality over quantity and we'd all still be happy :) I also want to thank you for your time and hard work on this blog, it kept me sane the past 3 years knowing I wasn't the only one thinking $400K for a 1500 sqft home was normal. I couldn't believe there was actual life on planet bearishrealestate.

Cmyst said...

Looks like I came late to the party, which is maybe another sign?
It's far from over, but for many of us the question was "Has it started yet???".
I'm glad you've decided not to close up shop, but to slow down. It wasn't my bankbook you saved, but this blog and BT's blog, and Ben Jones blog (although I quit reading that one months ago)did save my sanity. Turns out that yes, a lot of people WERE poseurs. Or worse.
Very few days go by that I don't find some humorous irony in a news item, that regular common-sense people DID see this coming and were screaming to the Heavens about it.

Dannielle and Thomas said...

I read this every day. Follow the links. Great, perhaps the best site about the Housing Bubble, etc...

sold2soon said...

First time poster but long time reader. Sold in 02 thinking the market had topped out. I had never heard of creative financing and figured the market had doubled & would soon crash. I kick myself everyday for that, but finally my old house has dropped below my sale price. This site has saved me from jumping back in too soon. It is far from over & I'm thankful for all your efforts.