Sunday, December 17, 2006

-21.8%

This article deserved its own post. From the Woodland Daily Democrat:

Yolo County, meanwhile, saw a drop of 17.6 percent in the sale of homes overall, from 306 in November 2005 to 252 last month. The median price was also down some 13.5 percent, from $480,000 in November 2005 to $415,000 last month.

The greatest decline countywide came in the sale of existing home, where a 25.5 percent decline was reported. The median price of existing homes, however, dropped only slightly by 4 percent, from $436,500 to $419,000.

New home sales, however, dipped slightly, although their prices plunged. Countywide, the sale of new homes dropped 7.1 percent from 141 to 131 over the past year. The price of new homes fell from $532,750 to $416,500, or 21.8 percent between November and November.
Another watershed moment for the local housing market? That's the first 20%+ year-over-year price depreciation figure I've seen at the county level. Does this begin the era of 20% declines? Stay tuned...

19 comments:

Lander said...

Sacramento Land(ing) flashback:

Anonymous said...

-0.3% YoY is hard landing? hahah

Thursday, February 23, 2006 9:16:00 AM

Gwynster said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Gwynster said...

OK here is my last best offer to my CL ad: $1400 per month for a 2500 sqft 4/2.5 brand new home in Southport with all the bells and whistles. First months free rent if we take posession by Jan 1. They'll take the security deposit in two payments since we'd be moving on short notice. Nice concession but we're cash fat these days.

I'm getting other offers. Lots of people would love to get us into a Land Lease contract (lol good luck)

I'm writing back to let them know what sort of deals they have to compete with. I figure it's free market analysis and they can either price accordingly or they can wait and eventually rent to some section 8 tenants who will trash the place.

The denial is deepest in Davis. I tell them what I'm seeing and you can taste the anger. The schadenfreude is better then sex!

But we'll never see a hard landing right? **winks**

Un-freaking-believeable

Anonymous said...

Gwynster,

You are right on the money. If I wanted to rent a home I would negoiate a one year lease and take 15% off what they are asking in rent and 1/2 deposit only. I would flash cash money in their face and these greedy flippers will take it.

patient renter said...

gwynster: would you mind linking to your craigslist ad? you seem to be having some good success with it and i want to try something similar to find a place for myself.

Anonymous said...

The price of new homes fell from $532,750 to $416,500, or 21.8 percent between November and November.

Is this counting all the incentives like landscaping, granite counter tops, Koi pond with a life time supply of Koi. I hear in Reno you can six months free action at the ranch or no payments for six months. Take your pick.

Perfect Storm

Gwynster said...

Patient,
http://sacramento.craigslist.org/hou/249987286.html

I spent the afternoon out looking at the southport area. Prices are really starting to become down. I brought the camera so I could take pictures for Ben's site.

While looking at these new homes, I'd find 2 for sale and 2 for rent on the same street. One street over, I'd see the same thing. Amazing

I could pay 3200 to service the debt on one of these homes or I could pay 1400 per month rent... gee...let me think about this?

patient renter said...

Gwynster: Thanks for the response. Pretty straightforward ad. I'm going to try the same route in the spring when my current lease is up.

Anonymous said...

Sacramento region home sales and price trends for November 2006

Gwynster said...

Thanks for the review Patient.

Did you see the psuedo rental guide I stuck on my blog? I think even Sippin would appreciate my guidelines. I'm a big fan of putting all the details out there and not wasting anyone's time.

While I see downward pressures on rental prices, I still feel that you should do some research and see if the new landlord can afford your offer. The deal has to make sense for everyone. Nothing sucks like loosing your place because the bank is taking it back.

I think someone just beat my last best offer and it will fit us perfectly for the next several years. Mr. Gwynster is disgusted with the Davis slumlords here and wants to teach them a fiscal lesson by removing our revenue.

Best of luck Patient. I think there is a good deal out there for everyone as long as due diligence is being followed.

patient renter said...

gwynster:

I did take a look at the post on your blog. It looked pretty good... I'm going to have to read through your tips more closely when I get a chance. The one thing I've been wondering about with finding the best house to rent is how to know for sure that the landlord isn't going to sell the house (or lose it via forclosure) out from under you while you're living there... or while I'm living there. Sure you can ask them about this, but what they say and what ends up happening could be two differnt things, especially considering they'll most likely still be losing money on the place every month, even with the rental revenue.

Anonymous said...

Wow, this information on the prices is amazing. It makes me wonder what the prices will be in November 2007. Will those $530,000 homes in Woodland (which are now $415,000) drop another $115,000 next year and be $300,000 by then?

I am beginning to think this 40-50% price declines is going to be very real

Anonymous said...

patient renter:

It's my understanding that if you enter into a 1 year lease (not month to month) with the owner and he/she sells the property, you still have a valid lease and the new owner must honor the terms of the lease. As for the owner losing the property, I'd recommend that you check with the county and verify the property taxes are current. Even if you rented a house today and the owner stopped making payment, you're looking at a minimum of 6-12 months before it's foreclosed on. Lenders are taking more time now to issue NOD's. A lady at work just told me her sister hasn't made a payment since March and the lender just now gave them approval to do a short sale. They (the lender) don't want a black mark of foreclosure so they're willing to work with the seller/listing agent to get rid of the property through a sale as opposed to a foreclosure.

Anonymous said...

Sunday Sac Bee real estate transactions in the Business section had the fewest transactions I have ever seen. 1/4 of a page.

Let the Sprng rebound begin. Housing Doom 2007.

Perfect Storm

sippn said...

Folks, I'm sure prices have come down some in Yolo, but don't be so simplistlic as to think that these are the same homes year vs year .... the big expensive homes built in 2005 are still sitting, while the new KB home project in Woodland is moving (smaller/cheaper) - this has a large impact on median price of a new home in Yolo.

The volume is too small in Yolo for median price to be reliable.

These same statistics showed my neighborhood up over 15% this year and I know that didn't happen.

Gwynster said...

The deals the home builders are giving far outweight anything in the reslae market plus you don't have realtor fees on top of the transaction.

KB is selling out of it's lower end homes in Woodland but Southport is looking really good. Good enough that I almost handed a deposit over on Sunday.

Once Woodland and Davis slumlords and sellers realize the money is moving over the causeway, they'll have to start playing ball or they'll be sitting on inventory that they'll never be able to unload. For new homes, that 21.8% is real.

If you look at just new homes, prices are dropping like a rock. I just hope this continues because I really want to purchase late next year.

Anonymous said...

Gwynster...
I live in southport. yes, i am a lovely bubble sitter such as yourself. I rented a brand new (been sitting for two years) 1stry, 4bd 2bth,2100+ sq.ft. for $1400. they also pay h20, sewar, and trash. It was the best deal i could find in all of west sac last august. and i looked at everything!! there is a really nice 1stry around the corner for $1500 no/pets.
I think for the size you want, it might be hard to get at that price. but, anything is possible :-) Let me know if you do..ok? we might be neighbors.

I sold in Natomas at the peak :-)

Gwynster said...

Hey Anon,

I'm looking at the Bridges area.
$1350 for a 2500 sqft 4/3 - they were just loading the new stainless appliances last night.

I went to the models and looked around. I'd buy the place if it was the right amount. Must resist urge to whip out check book... must resist..

Anonymous said...

I wouldn't buy OR rent in one of those stucco box towns. I wouldn't live in one if you gave me a new house and paid all my expenses. They might look nice when they're new, but they'll last about as long as an american car, and they'll suck the life out of you slowly, like fast food or cigarettes.