Wednesday, January 31, 2007

Home Sales 2001-2006



This graph compares sales of single-family homes by year (2001 to 2006) as reported by the Sacramento Association of Realtors (SAR). Coverage includes MLS sales in Sacramento County and West Sacramento.

Some December statistics from SAR:

  • Sales (YoY): -25.6%
  • 19th month of YoY sales declines, 16th month of double-digit declines
  • Median price (YoY): -5.3%
  • 6th month of YoY price declines
  • Median price (from peak): -9.6% (down $37,750)

26 comments:

Anonymous said...

hey sippin, if the high end is doing so great why is another cusotmer home going for over $250K less than asking? I"m sure you could get another $200K off this one...I wanna see a pic of you posted with a check made out to the builder. BTW, this property will rot. http://sacramento.craigslist.org/rfs/271224183.html

Sippn said...

Good question

$Tract home - not high end - note black dishwasher, golf course missing

$650K in 2004 from tract builder

$879K in 2005 to flipper

flipper selling @ $850k

never was a $1.1 mil home as it says it was.

You can buy a nice custom home on this golf course for $1 mil.

next

Sippn said...

Let me expand.

Take a look at metrolist (sacbee.com) 3793 Westchester 95747 zip - $1195K custom on the golf course, almost 1000 sf larger - now thats better!

BTW, your home is sold.

The big problem with tract - and some of it is very nice - is that it is somewhat of a commodity. Right now there's way too much of that commodity and everybody is in a hurry to sell it.

You might need a garage door opener to find the home. There are several homes just like it on that street. THere are 2 similarly sized tract homes a few blocks away repod for sale in the mid $700s - a problem, but a different tract builder.

Now if this was the original buyer selling today for $850K (I'm sure he was close) he'd be bragging about his $200k gain since 2004 saying "what decline?"

but instead we have to feel sorry for a flipper who gambled and lost.

AgentBubble said...

3790 Kingsbarns Dr
Roseville, CA 95747-6358

First sold on 12/15/04 for $650,000

Sold to present owners on 3/25/06 for $879,000

Listed on 5/18/06 for $1,169,000
Reduced to $1,139,000 on 6/13/06
Withdrawn on 8/14/06

Listed on 8/30/06 for $999,999
Withdrawn on 10/14/06

Listed on 10/19/06 for $1,100,000
Withdrawn on 12/7/06

Listed on 1/23/07 for $850,000
Pending sale on 1/31/07

MLS shows 6% commission, plus another 1% for other fees, and you're at another $59,500 off the top. Assuming they got full price, their net will be around $790k. Loss of $89,000 in less than a year.

anon1137 said...

Thanks for the nice graph, Lander. I like the way there wasn't much difference in Jan-Feb closings during all years, but March closings shot up in a vertical line in 2004 and 2005. Those must represent deals that are being made in the 1st part of the year. Definitely a trend here - it will be interesting to see if the 2007 line undercuts the 2006 line.

Hey Sippn, I like this one:

You might need a garage door opener to find the home.

Max said...

Off Topic:

Anybody planning on going to the auctions in Elk Grove this weekend? I won't be able to make it, but I'd love to get an "on the ground" report to contrast any Bee spin. BTW, I ran some auction vs builder vs resale market price comparisons here. I wonder how it will go...

Gwynster said...

Mr Gwynster and I are planning on going, camera in hand. However I was looking for the location on the website and in the article and didn't notice one listed.

The one thing that really stinks about this "auction" are the minimums. Like a poster mentioned before under the thread, this will be more of a fishing expedition then anything else.

Max said...

Check this link:

Location

Gwynster said...

Thanks Maxx

Too bad it's a builder auction instead of a flipper. I'll get to see more of those later I'm sure.

Max said...

Too bad it's a builder auction instead of a flipper. I'll get to see more of those later I'm sure.

They'll be happening soon enough. :)

Anonymous said...

gwynster,
There's already been a number of flipper auctions.

A house I was tracking in Folsom first went up for sale, no success. Then they tried the lease option...nope..and finally the auction where they struck out again.

Last I saw it on craigslist it was for rent - priced too high. Probably with the bank now.

I bet every builder is town is watching closely. With the minimums so high, I think it will flop.

Anonymous said...

real deal, is over on the Modesto/Merced going quickly blog making a bunch oh Hitler Youth Nazi comments.

jeff said...

I'd attend the auction but it's a waste of time, why would any reasonable person even buy? The minimums aren't even realistic in this market, plus it's EG, part of the floor zone and south hood.

drwende said...

Nationwide, real estate auctions grew 12.6% in 2006.

Real said...

I love these stats (right from your own blog entry)

http://www.sacrealtor.org/documents
/about/statistics/December06.pdf

Resale Homes
2006 (1-01-06 to 12-31-06)
Median Price: $369K
Mean Price: $408K

2005 (1-01-05 to 12-31-05)
Median Price: $372K
Mean Price: $403K

Oh no! Prices are plummeting! We will be lose 50% of the value in no time!!! Don't let the numbers get in the way of your 'sky is falling' predictions....

Anonymous said...

Here we go again, letting the wolf guard the hen house. Like reading the Sacramento Bee ifd if you want to go to heaven.

Embdddsgnr said...

Real, you are a being a troll. A semiarticulate one, but a troll nonetheless. If you really feel the market isn't in a dire situation, make your arguments and support them without resorting to hyperbole or outright name calling. Others here have been less bearish and are able to carry on reasonable discourse (been lurking for some time now, hi folks). Perhaps they are tired of responding to you.

That report, besides its questionable partiality given the source, is for December YoY in Sacramento County and W. Sac. Notice that the # of closed escrows is down over 25% YoY for December. Why would the median be up a bit? As others have pointed out here and elsewhere, there will always be buyers and sellers in any market, especially at the high end.

In the areas I'm tracking, Downtown/Midtown/East Sac, the market's been doing okay, and the high end (say, > $800K) seems to be doing pretty good. Still, I've watched the average asking prices go down all across, homes sit unoccupied and unsold for months, and actual sales are nearly always lower (Zillow is my new friend).

You can't argue that the market everywhere in this town is overvalued, and is in a correction. How bad it will be is anyone's guess, and there are a lot of well educated guesses both ways. Still, when someone who makes over twice the median income here can hardly afford a $375K house using traditional financing, % of income, etc., you must admit something is wrong.

Looking forward to more of your contrary viewpoints.

Cheers

anon1137 said...

If you really feel the market isn't in a dire situation, make your arguments and support them without resorting to hyperbole or outright name calling.

Real, I think you should keep stating your point of view. But be warned, only the bears are allowed to use hyperbole and name-calling on this blog.

Anonymous said...

Real Hall of Fame

"I will use simple math so you can follow along."

"Are there any real people here or just 14-year olds logging on at the library?"

"I suggest you ask Sac State for a refund as you obviously did not learn much during your time there."

"I would have expected you to admit that you were wrong or simply keep your mouth shut until you good hone up your econ understanding to the point that you could make an educated statement."

"I will refrain from posting further."

"I really hate to go back on my word about not posting anymore, but it is obvious that you guys need my help so I will do the math for you once again (without skipping steps so you can follow)."

Anonymous said...

I think real should keep
posting also. He has
a right to his opinions and
I actually like reading them.
I think he's wrong so if and
when he's proven wrong I'd
like to see how he responds.
And if he's correct and the
housing market doesn't tank
... well, I'll be the first to
admit I was wrong. Hopefully
he'll have the honor to do the same
if HE is wrong. Like someone
said earlier... it's all about
affordablility or lack of.
Real...keep posting. Just
don't flake out on everyone
when and if you're agruements
are proven wrong.
Cheers!

Gwynster said...

seriously, I though anon1137 and Real were the same person so cheering for yourself is slightly lame.

Don't feed the troll with attention

Sippn said...

REal, Embdddsgnr, 1137

Its OK, calm down, I delete 1/2 the stuff I draft.

The median will drop more if the low end gets going .... impact on the calculation.

I'v seen ASKING PRICES drop significantly, but I found it amazing what kind of appreciation people think happened in 2005-6 to come to these ASKING PRICES.

If you bought within the last year in almost any market except 2004-5, you would be lucky to break even selling within a year.


BTW, went to Lincoln today to see what all the ruckus is about (other business) and I think I know what the real problem is....

Couldn't find a Starbucks.

Sippn said...

dwendle, of course RE auctions grew, so did liquor sales!

Lawn mower sales rise in the spring too!

anon1137 said...

Perfect Storm's School of Hyperbole and Name-Calling:

"Well folks we have not seen nothing yet. See you at the bottom, be safe don't catch falling knifes."

"Wow 2687 bank owned properties in Sacramento County. Don't catch a falling knife if you get my meaning."

"This housing market is on the ropes with weak legs. The count is on. Anybody who buys know would be catching a falling knife."

"People who think real estate is a better investment than stocks are fools."

"Anybody who buys now is a fool."

"This market is going down the tubes faster than a subprime can declare bankruptcy. Do not buy a home you will be making a fools decision."

"So all you sub prime freaks of nature can stick it, all your funding is drying up and you will back to flipping burgers soon. I hope the majority of you neg am freaks go to prison."

"He is undoubtedly an idiot and failed at journalism, so he now is a realtor."

"This guy is just a freakin idiot."

"I like the part when Bambi's Mom gets shot by the hunter. It reminds me of an FB getting screwed when his ARM resets."

"Housing Doom 2007"

and my favorite:

"Who made you the blog boss? Come up with real blog name. Anon1137 sounds like something out of Staw Wars, you nerd."

Anonymous said...
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
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