Thursday, February 01, 2007

"Another 'Red Ink' Month"

John, over at the Sacramento Real Estate blog, has some early numbers for January:

The numbers are in, and sure enough, it’s another “red ink” month for Sacramento County real estate, at least from a seller’s perspective. Prices were down slightly on paper, but my favorite indicator, price per square foot, was down more dramatically...9.3%.
Something other than ink is spilling gushing from the mortgage lending industry. Since about December, 18 lenders have "gone kaput" according to the Mortgage Lender Implode-O-Meter. Get the latest on which lender is croaking over at the I Smell Dead Lenders blog Bakersfield Bubble blog.

Finally, the excellent Southern California Real Estate Bubble Crash blog (say that quickly 10 times) reports that condoflip.com just flopped.

7 comments:

Anonymous said...

Thousands of homes n El Dorado Hills may be worthless do to the structure not being strong enough to with stand the wind.

Anonymous said...

Thomas spent a lot of time evaluating damage after southern California’s Northridge quake. He says the damage in El Dorado Hills is the same kind, but has nothing to do with earthquakes.

"Wind moves the house. Moves it--flexes it,” said Thomas.

The wind is an almost constant companion to folks in El Dorado Hills. Those breezes can blow balmy or biting, but Thomas says with this kind of exposure they are also damaging.

Bob Yeadon believes Thomas is onto something big, and he points to his former home as exhibit "A".

"Its one of those things where you work all your life, and you get, you know, your dream home,” said Yeadon.

The Yeadon family moved out of their million-dollar home in the Serrano Country Club area on the advice of their doctors.

"I think we had 23 doctor visits between the kids and my wife that month, in May of 2005,” said Yeadon.

This, after months of symptoms that seemed like an endless series of colds and flu, under laid with constant exhaustion.

"I never put together it was the house,” said Yeadon.

The Yeadon’s finally brought in someone to sample the air in their home. The tests found so much moisture, an attorney suggested they look for mold, and they found it.

Anonymous said...

Don't they have an asbestos
problem also? It's an
area I really like... how
do you know which area's are
safe from asbestos and now
the structure defects?

Gwynster said...

Ben spotted this tidbit first.

http://www.investors.com/editorial/IBDArticles.asp?artsec=27&issue=20070201

"People who bought single-family homes hoping to soon sell them for a quick profit have given apartment owners perhaps the biggest competitive surprise of late: These now financially hamstrung speculators are putting the houses up for rent."

"BRE Properties, (BRE) a real estate investment trust in San Francisco that owns and operates about 27,000 apartment units in the West, is facing such competition. A growing number of single-family homes are being rented in markets such as Phoenix and San Diego, BRE executives said on the firm's third-quarter conference call last fall."

"The supply of single-family home rentals is increasing in Sacramento too. In the fourth quarter last year, apartment occupancies fell to 92.5% from 94.2% in the third quarter, says RealFacts, a Novato, Calif., firm that analyzes apartment data."

I know that in Davis the flood gates have opened for rentals and MLS listings. Last year was interesting but 07 is shaping up nicely.

patient renter said...

"price per square foot, was down more dramatically...9.3%."

this is substantial. good progress i'd say.

John Lockwood said...

Regarding asbestos (serpentine rock), there are county maps available -- such as the one linked to here:

http://www.co.el-dorado.ca.us/emd/apcd/asbestos.html

If you go to the planning department in Placerville you can find a similar map in a large wall format that gives good detail.

Interestingly, serpentine rock occurs in 44 of 58 counties in California, so it's not just El Dorado County's problem. I never knew that before. It is the State Rock, which I did know.

Though I'm not an expert, I'd hazard a guess that wind and mold are generally unrelated problems, unless there are construction issues. Mold thrives in moist environments, and my understanding is that it is believed to be more common the more energy efficient the home is (because there's less chance for the moisture that was in the wood originally to dissipate). If you have a concern, you should order a test for it while in escrow.

This is the first I've heard of some huge big bad wolf structural issues with wind in El Dorado Hills. If you're a buyer and you had a concern, I'd have you consult a structural engineer. But whereas we've been required to disclose serpentine rock since I got in the business, I haven't yet heard of a single case of a home being blown over by wind in El Dorado Hills. This sounds like a simple case of alarmism to me. I suppose given enough global warming all kinds of nasty winds can happen, but at that point I don't see how renting will save you -- you'll just be sitting buck naked in someone ELSE's house when the walls come tumbling down.

Oh, and hey Lander, thanks for the link! There's some even tastier alarmism to be had from my recent El Dorado County pricing article, wherein we play catch-up with Sacramento.

Cheers!

Anonymous said...

If you're upside down on your McMansion and theres no way out save for foreclosure- you too can play the Mold Card! Allow mold to grow in your house, DO NOT fix the leak thats CAUSING the mold to grow, DO NOT ventilate your bathroom during bathing! Get emotional and do the typical American Red Herring Dance- blame your problems on something, -anything- else but your own stupidity and laziness.
Oh and whatever you do, don't take the time to investigate the quality of the builder's product- just buy the cheapest/cutest house you can- Ignore the fact that most builders don't give a shit about quality (There are only 2 builders in Serrano that build high quality- one of them goes TOTALLY overboard- and they're prices show it)
PS: EDH is in a high wind zone- if the builder's engineer did not allow for it(most don't)- yes the homes will move around a bit... (LMAO)

--a builder