Wednesday, July 18, 2007

100

Implosions

6 comments:

Diggin Deeper said...

Somebody predicted number 100 about this time...Great Call!

Buried in the news but oh so interesting. Moody's to put $318 Billion in Alt-A bonds on credit watch.

If just 10% of these bonds are considered too risky for the rating they've been given, many pension funds will have to sell.

When Bear Stearns announced their hedge fund problem, there were a couple days of frantic financial selling by institutions. This was all done over $3-4 Billion.

Now we have a possible 10 times that amount in mis-rated notes. It will be interesting to see just how orderly the selling is as these investors line up at the selling window.

Sittin' Out This One said...

Yes, Diggin, I remember that prediction of 100 implosions. Was that Perfect Storm?

This market just gets more interesting all the time. On Monday, I had a brief moment where, after a KFBK/RealtyTrac report broadcast, I thought monthly foreclosures were exceeding monthly sales. It was an astounding thought, but not even close to being true.

This weekend, I am going to do a little research for Lander and find the most accurate numbers for sales and foreclosures in the Sac area. Next week, I will have enough info to determine if that scenario could really happen...and when.

I will post it here.

Diggin Deeper said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Diggin Deeper said...

Those have probably been the most elusive figures up to this point. Nobody seems to be able to get a handle on whether these foreclosures are showing up on the inventory roles or not. REO's show up on the MLS, foreclosures do not unless they are sold. Good luck on that effort, it would really clarify the whole inventory issue. In any event, i have a feeling its a much bigger number than is being reported right now. Foreclosures are so toxic to the real industry that it's better to sweep them away from more traditional inventory.

Gwynster said...

This is on the SacBee site

Sacramento housing market is the nation's 3rd riskiest, Forbes says

http://www.sacbee.com/103/story/279124.html

But we all know Forbes can't be trusted right? **winks**

Diggin Deeper said...

Watching the ABX index carefully...can it go much lower than where we're at today. In January this subprime BBB junk bond index was almost par at $97.50, today, it looks to close below $45. This little jewel shows no sign of finding the bottom...Anyone holding anything that resembles "enhanced" leverage" bonds had better check their balance when their statement arrives...